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THE ROAD AHEAD, PART 17 | A TRIBUNE SPECIAL PROJECT

THE NEXT MOVEUNC, higher education ponder ways to

respond to tech and funding challenges

JOSHUAPOLSON/jpolson@greeleytribune.com

STACKS UPON STACKS OF luggage await a residence hall room as Jordan Johnson waits to help her sister haul in the bag-gage during the University of Northern Colorado’s move-in day Thursday morning in Greeley. With class starting, UNC’s campus has been flooded with thousands of new and returning students moving in. There are more than 13,000 students currently at UNC.

Even though it had been about 30 years since she graduated from college, when Katy

King first saw the University of Northern Colorado’s angular red brick campus buildings, she got a familiar feeling.

It wasn’t quite freedom, she said. It was that youthful excite-ment of her college years.

The Denver resident grew up in Michigan and graduated from the University of Dayton in Ohio. The campus there, she said, was more urban and didn’t have the lush greenery UNC offers, but the experience brought back plenty of memories, anyway.

She was there with her hus-band, Jim King, to accompany their son at a new-student orien-tation in early August. Cameron King will start his first classes at UNC on Monday.

“It’s so different because of all the technology and everything that’s available to the kids, and yet so many things are the same,” his mother said.

BY NATE A. MILLERNMILLER@ GREELEYTRIBUNE.COM

Beyond the familiar columns and brick facade, major changes and challenges confront the uni-versity, which is among Gree-ley’s largest employers and most important institutions. Along with other universities around the country, it faces tighter state

funding, soaring costs and greater competition from online schools.

On top of that, parents and stu-dents who are contemplating decades of debt to pay off student loans are asking tough questions: Is college worth the money?

“We need a new business model, that is, a new operational model,” said UNC President Kay Norton. “The definition of insan-ity is to keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect-ing a different result. Waiting around for the state of Colorado or the federal government to save us and restore things to the way they were is futile.”

Harvard, MIT and other uni-versities with deep wallets, ex-tensive history and unparalleled reputations for quality will con-tinue to function much as they always have, but higher education across the country — elements of which would be recognizable to educators of the 18th century — will change in the coming years. The growth of online learning will alter the definition of educa-tion, and demographic and eco-nomic trends will redefine what it means to be a student. Universi-ties that manage the change well and successfully remake them-selves can play key roles in meet-ing the growing demand of the knowledge economy.

Those that don’t could wither or die.

«CONTINUEDA4: RoadAhead

JIMRYDBOM/jrydbom@greeleytribune.com

HUNDREDS OF NEW UNC freshmen fill the Long Peaks Ballroom at the University Center during new student orientation earlier this month.

This is the 17th installment in The Road Ahead, a series of stories that explores the power of plans to shape Greeley: past, present and future.To see previous stories in the series — covering Greeley’s past, immigration, the Stampede, U.S. 85, recreation, water, education, agriculture and “the smell of money” — go to www.greeley tribune.com/roadahead.

» About the series«FOR MORE GO TO PAGEA5 & A6: An in-depth look at the value of higher education A8: TribuneOpinion: Higher ed must adapt to forced changesA8: Guestcolumn: Educational finances will look different in the futureOnline: Read some web-exclusive stories and see more photos from this installment of the Road Ahead series at www.greeleytribune.com/roadahead

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Despite rising costs and challenges, many emphasize education‘An army of workers’

When Elizabeth Peña, 24, graduated from UNC two years ago, she became the first in her family to get a college degree.

“It was a proud moment, and at times, frustrating because I was the first one to go through all of it. My parents didn’t know what to expect. I didn’t know what to expect.”

Few doubt the worth of a good col-lege education. In addition to quality-of-life benefits, such as learning to think critically, the economic rewards of a college degree are clear. A report from the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University said that by 2018, 67 percent of jobs in Colorado will require some form of post-secondary education, and most of those jobs will require a bachelor’s degree. Another report detailed the de-gree to which college graduates fared better during the recent economic downturn than those without a degree. College graduates make, on average, $1.3 million more during their lifetime than those who didn’t graduate from college.

The Kings, like other parents of UNC freshmen, will pay nearly $17,000 a year in tuition, fees, and room and board for their son’s educa-tion, but they were ready and willing to spend the money.

“For me, I was the first person in my family who went to college and completed it,” said Jim King, taking a break from his son’s orientation. “It’s a day and night thing in terms of your ability to experience and enjoy and prosper in life, and I’m not talking just about money.”

In recent years, Colorado has seen significant growth in the number of students attending college. About 70 percent of Colorado students who graduate high school seek some form of college education within six months of graduation. Much of the growth has come from students who haven’t tradi-tionally attended college. In Colorado, that principally means Latinos, said Matt Gianneschi, the deputy executive director of the Colorado Department of Higher Education. Additionally, one of the fastest-growing segments is older students, beyond the traditional 18- to 22-year-old students who once defined the undergraduate experience.

All that growth is good, Gianneschi said, but it also puts pressure on the system. Those students are more likely to feel the impact of rising tuition. They are less likely to travel long distances to college, and they’re likely to need more financial aid and support services. That will force colleges to innovate and find new ways to serve them, he said.

Her college experience, and the degree that came with it, made a big difference for Peña, who works for the Weld County Department of Human Services. It’s the very kind of job she wanted when she graduated.

“I don’t think they would have hired me if I didn’t have my degree. The pay is pretty good. I’d say if I’d go anywhere else, I’d probably have to take a pay cut. I have also the potential to move up.”

College doesn’t work out that way for everyone. Richard K. Vedder is an economics professor at Ohio Uni-versity who studies higher education financing and is the director of the Washington-based Center for College Affordability and Productivity. He con-tends too many people go to college, despite the well-worn memes about the value of education. To support this view, he points to oddities in the labor market: 115,520 janitors in the United States have at least a bachelor’s degree and 323,000 waiters have four-year degrees.

“We have an army of workers out there, who have college degrees who are doing jobs — driving taxis, tending bar, etc. — that have historically been done by people with less education.”

Of course, more and more jobs require a college degree. For Vedder, that’s a function of supply creating its own demand. With so many college graduates seeking work, it’s easy for employers to tack a degree require-ment onto a job as a means of narrow-ing the field.

Vedder said he’s not opposed to college. The education and the degree that goes with it do a lot of good for a lot of people. The problem comes, however, for students who go to college and don’t graduate or who graduate and fill menial jobs that don’t pay well. Student loan debt in the U.S. has risen to about $1 trillion dollars and roughly 40 million people are working to pay off the debts, some of whom are in their 40s, he said. That debt burden can make it difficult for some people to start their life and for others to save for retirement.

“They’re paying for their 20s rather than worrying about when they’re in their 60s,” he said.

‘It expands your horizons’

Peña understands all too well the cost of college. She ran up about $23,000 in student loans. She had no scholarships and paid her own way through her graduation with a bach-elor’s in human services. Additionally, it took her about two years to get a

full-time job in her field.She was unemployed for about three

months and took jobs where she could find them, including as a medical assistant and a position at Youth and Family Connections as a case manager. As she struggled to find a job that worked, she lived with her parents and drew down a modest savings. She didn’t even begin to address her student loans.

“I’m barely now getting a handle on them,” she said. “It took time just because I first started out in something that didn’t pay well, and then I ended up being unemployed. It kind of snow-balled there, and I remember having to call them to see if I could get some type of arrangement or forbearance. Now that I just started this job in March, I’m able to make enough money that I can set money aside to do my loans

and pay that back.”At the other end of the spectrum,

even in an era of record-high unem-ployment, many jobs — especially in fields like high-tech manufacturing — are going unfilled because employers can’t find qualified workers.

American University economics professor Robert Lerman, who is a fellow at the Washington-based Urban Institute, where he researches labor and social policy, said for many there’s a disconnect between school and work.

“Right now the work world is, except for real youth jobs, sort of divorced from the schools for a lot of people,” he said. “It’s not all that functional for a big chunk of our young people.”

More college education probably isn’t the solution to this problem, either, he said. He pointed out that countries like Switzerland and Germany that

have robust apprenticeship programs for many careers have much lower youth unemployment rates than those without. The apprenticeship programs aren’t dead-ends, he said. Many CEOs in the central European countries began as apprentices and worked their way up to the top of the company. In other cases, there are architects, for example, who worked in carpentry ap-prenticeships earlier in their career.

Lerman said he doesn’t expect large-scale apprenticeship programs to launch anytime soon in the U.S., but he said rising costs of higher education will push colleges and universities to incor-porate more hands-on experience and link their programs with employers.

Aims Community College is doing just that, Aims President Marsi Lidell said.

“From the community college

standpoint, we train people to put them out in the workforce,” she said. “I think you’ll see Aims, at least, looking to industry saying, ‘What do you need? How fast do you need it? How can we best help you?’ ”

Aims is set to launch two new programs — one in oil and gas and the other in agribusiness.

“I think we’ll see even more flexibility in community colleges to reach out and provide training opportunities to go straight into a career,” she said.

Despite the challenges, Peña said when she has kids, they will go to col-lege.

“That’s going to be a priority. There’s no doubt about it,” she said. “It’s really important. It’s almost kind of like a minimum now. It gives you life experi-ence. It expands your horizons. It gives you more experience of life and it chal-lenges you.”

‘How do we compete?’The American system of higher edu-

cation was once the envy of the world. As recently as roughly 30 years ago, more people in the United States held college degrees than any other country in the world. Students from around the globe came here to attend school.

That success didn’t happen by ac-cident. The country invested in higher education. A major part of that effort came in the 1800s with the creation of the land-grant institutions — Colorado State University is the land-grant in-stitution in the state — and the normal school movement, which created the teachers college that later became UNC.

In Greeley, residents petitioned for the establishment of the college, raised the money for the land and a por-tion of the money needed for the first

«ROAD AHEADFrom A1

PHOTOS BY JIM RYDBOM/jrydbom@greeleytribune.com

A WELCOME SIGN GREETS new and returning students at the University Center on the University of Northern Colorado campus. Classes begin Monday.

CONSTRUCTION OF NEW RESIDENCE halls back in 2008 shows the ever-expanding campus at UNC. The average cost per year for an in-state freshman is more than $16,000.

Year Undergrad* Graduate* Operating budget State support (% of budget) State aid2001-02 $8,051 $2,512 $105.17 million $42.35 million (40 percent) $5.42 million2002-03 $8,511 $2,634 $107.66 million $36.97 million (34 percent) $5.59 million2003-04 $8,990 $2,897 $106.23 million $33.59 million (32 percent) $4.68 million2004-05 $9,324 $3,040 $112.36 million $33.59 million (30 percent) $4.53 million2005-06 $10,249 $4,307 $121.97 million $34.17 million (28 percent) $4.37 million2006-07 $10,782 $4,445 $133.40 million $37.98 million (28 percent) $4.60 million2007-08 $11,655 $4,633 $145.53 million $41.16 million (28 percent) $5.40 million2008-09 $12,464 $5,035 $153.99 million $44.09 million (29 percent) $5.90 million2009-10 $13,821 $5,782 $171.89 million $44.09 million (26 percent) $5.29 million2010-11 $14,917 $6,653 $181.72 million $40.62 million (22 percent) $4.66 million2011-12 $16,374 $7,486 $192.41 million $32.81 million (17 percent) $4.02 million2012-13 $16,880 $8,806 $199.62 million $31.86 million (16 percent) $4.28 million

*Undergrad and graduate totals represent totals for residents. Undergrad tuition is based on 30 credit hours per academic year. Graduate tuition based on 18 credit hours per academic year.

» UNC revenue and budget

A4 » SUNDAY, AUGUST 26, 2012 » THE TRIBUNE

Despite rising costs and challenges, many emphasize education

standpoint, we train people to put them out in the workforce,” she said. “I think you’ll see Aims, at least, looking to industry saying, ‘What do you need? How fast do you need it? How can we best help you?’ ”

Aims is set to launch two new programs — one in oil and gas and the other in agribusiness.

“I think we’ll see even more flexibility in community colleges to reach out and provide training opportunities to go straight into a career,” she said.

Despite the challenges, Peña said when she has kids, they will go to col-lege.

“That’s going to be a priority. There’s no doubt about it,” she said. “It’s really important. It’s almost kind of like a minimum now. It gives you life experi-ence. It expands your horizons. It gives you more experience of life and it chal-lenges you.”

‘How do we compete?’The American system of higher edu-

cation was once the envy of the world. As recently as roughly 30 years ago, more people in the United States held college degrees than any other country in the world. Students from around the globe came here to attend school.

That success didn’t happen by ac-cident. The country invested in higher education. A major part of that effort came in the 1800s with the creation of the land-grant institutions — Colorado State University is the land-grant in-stitution in the state — and the normal school movement, which created the teachers college that later became UNC.

In Greeley, residents petitioned for the establishment of the college, raised the money for the land and a por-tion of the money needed for the first

building. When the state didn’t come through with the money it had prom-ised for the building, the Greeley com-munity raised the rest of the money.

“The states, especially in the grow-ing western part of the United States, really took on the role of fostering higher education. They saw it as being essential to the development of the West and the economic development of the West,” Norton said.

After the World War II G.I. bill, the federal government joined the states in making massive investments in higher education.

“The model was, low price for ev-erybody with a generous state subsidy. The tuition was, in some cases like California zero, and in other cases quite low,” Norton said. “That model worked pretty darn well through most of the 20th century, but not all of it.”

Since 2000, the percentage of all state budgets that’s spent on higher education fell from an average of about 20 percent of state revenue to about 10 percent.

In Colorado the state funded 68 percent of the cost of higher educa-tion in 2001. This year, it will fund 32 percent. During that same time, state funding fell from 40 percent of UNC’s budget to 16 percent. In the 1994-95 fiscal year, UNC received $31.7 million of state funding, which made up an estimated 35 percent to 40 percent of the operating budget. This year, UNC will receive virtually the same amount, $31.9 million, which makes up 16 percent of the budget.

“The state should be doing more,” said Katy King, who along with her husband will pay the lion’s share of the cost of her son’s education. “That’s very disappointing to us.”

King said she doesn’t mind making the investment, but she worries about

those who can’t.“How do we compete in the world

marketplace when our children aren’t getting that kind of support?” she said. “If the parents who can afford it are doing it, what’s happening to the talent of the kids whose parents can’t?”

Funding is a significant concern, said Gianneschi, the deputy executive director of the Colorado Department of Higher Education. Demographers expect the state’s population to grow by more than 1 million people during the next decade, and most will seek a college education, placing greater demands on the capacity of the state’s higher education system. Decision makers will face choices similar to ones their forerunners once made.

“How did these institutions get founded across the state in the various locations in which they’re located?” he said. “Somebody, at one point, planned for that.”

Legislators, too, are beginning to agree among themselves on the impor-tance of maintaining the state’s higher education system.

“I think we’re reaching consensus. Legislators, by and large, agree that higher education is of great value to the state,” Gianneschi said. “There’s a lot more consensus than there used to be concerning the desire to support higher education and find ways to ensure that the quality of our post-secondary

system is always maintained.” Rep. Dave Young, D-Greeley, and

Sen. Scott Renfroe, R-Eaton, acknowl-edged that funding for higher education often is an easy target because so many other budget items have mandates that require funding. They hope an improv-ing economy and state budget picture will allow for more funding, but it’s hard to say how much.

UNC president Norton has had her critics since taking the position in 2002. Some on campus expressed fears she would turn the university into a quasi-business with an overriding focus on the bottom line at the expense of education, particularly as she sought to push UNC to adapt to the emerging financial reality.

Stephen Luttman, a former Faculty Senate chairman, said the university does face challenges that must be ad-dressed. Norton hasn’t been perfect, he said, but she has positioned the univer-sity well to face an uncertain future.

“If what you expected of Kay Norton is she was going to come in and, say, turn this place into Walmart, it didn’t happen, and she’s shown no interest in doing that,” he said. “She’s shown interest in creating efficiencies.”

Norton said the money from the Legislature won’t return in any mean-ingful way, and the university must find ways to survive on its own. That means learning to do things that pri-

vate schools have done for years to bring in revenue and focusing on areas of strength.

“We have to quit pining for restora-tion,” she said. “We have to focus on transformation. That is far easier said than done when you have a tradition-filled organization that was dependent on state government and used to have a lot of things regulated by the state.”

‘Those models are increasingly breaking’

Twenty years from now, higher edu-cation will be much more affordable, and many more people will have easier access to it, but that’s not necessarily good news for mid-major universities like UNC, said Michael B. Horn, who co-authored the book “Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns” with Harvard Business School profes-sor Clayton M. Christensen.

“My gut feeling is that while it will be a great thing for the majority of stu-dents, for a lot of our institutions this could be a very difficult time because they have, obviously, very expensive cost structures with lots of infrastruc-ture,” he said.

Doctoral degree

Professional degree

Master’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school diploma

Less than high school diploma

2.5% $1,551

2.4% $1,665

3.6% $1,263

4.9% $1,053

6.8% $768

8.7% $719

9.4% $638

14.1% $451

Unemployment rate in 2011 Median weekly earnings in 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average: 7.6% Average: $797

»» Education pays

Recession Recovery

Those with a bachelor’s degree or better gained 187,000 jobs in the recession.

Those with an associate degree or some college education lost 1.75 million jobs in the recession.

Those with a high school diploma or less lost 5.6 million jobs altogether in the recession.

People with bachelor’s degrees or better gained 2 million jobs in recovery.

People with associate degrees or some college education gained 1.6 million jobs in recovery.

People with high school diplomas or less lost 230,000 jobs by February 2012 in recovery.

High school or lessAssociate degree or some college

Bachelor’s degree or better

Dec. 07-Mar. 08 Oct. 08 Mar. 09 Aug. 09 Jan. 10 June 10 Nov. 10 Apr. 11 Sept. 11 Feb. 12

Empl

oym

ent c

hang

e (m

illio

ns)

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

»» Jobs lost and gained during recession and recoveryWorkers 18 years old and older with a high school diploma or less bore the brunt of the recession’s job losses. Job gains in the recovery are confined to those with education beyond high school.

Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

»» Percentage of jobs needing postsecondary education in 2018Between 2008 and 2018, new jobs in Colorado requiring postsecondary education and training will grow by 411,000, while jobs for high school graduates and dropouts will grow by 217,000.Colorado ranks fifth in postsecondary education intensity for 2018 with 67 percent of jobs requiring a postsecondary education.

More than 65 percent of jobs will require postsecondary education

60-64 percent of jobs will require postsecondary education

55-59 percent of jobs will require postsecondary education

Less than 54 percent of jobs will require postsecondary education

Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

PHOTOS BY JIM RYDBOM/jrydbom@greeleytribune.com

A»WELCOME»SIGN»GREETS»new and returning students at the University Center on the University of Northern Colorado campus. Classes begin Monday.

CONSTRUCTION»OF»NEW»RESIDENCE»halls back in 2008 shows the ever-expanding campus at UNC. The average cost per year for an in-state freshman is more than $16,000.

«CONTINUEDA6:»Road Ahead

» Students: UNC’s final fall 2011 enrollment was 13,038 students — 10,414 undergrads and 2,624 grads. Initial numbers for fall 2012 will be available Monday.» Student loans: Average debt of students at graduation is $17,652.» Financial aid: As tuition has risen, UNC also has increased the amount of financial aid it offers. In 2012-13 it will provide $22.6 mil-lion in institutional scholarships and tuition waivers. Less than 10 years ago, UNC provided $6 million.» Employees: 1,305 full-time em-ployees, 263 part-time employ-ees and 348 graduate assistants.» Economic impact: The univer-sity’s expenditures and spending from staff, faculty and students results in $131 million in direct and indirect impacts in Weld County, which supports 1,441 non-univer-sity jobs in Weld.» Events: From spring com-mencement ceremonies to the UNC Jazz Festival, university events contribute about $4 mil-lion to the Weld economy annu-ally. » Schools: UNC teacher can-didates contribute more than 400,000 hours of work time to area schools each year.» Charity: University employees who live in Weld County donate about 99,400 hours and $1.46 million in cash every year to non-profit agencies and organizations.

Source: University of Northern Colorado

»» About»UNC

« THE TRIBUNE « SUNDAY, AUGUST 26, 2012 « A5

Schools look beyond traditional education model

Horn has said he wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 20 years, half the higher education institu-tions in the country either close their doors or merge with others.

Within the past year, a host of massive open online courses — called MOOCS — have launched, offering students around the world access to top professors at pres-tigious universities. Coursera, an effort that began with a Stanford professor, offers 119 courses from universities such as Duke, Princ-eton and Penn in 16 categories to more than 1 million students. Harvard launched its own initia-tive, EdX, working with Cal and others. These kinds of programs offer students a new way to learn. Some are for profit and charge small fees, others are nonprofit and offer free courses. They will continue to grow, evolve and offer as yet unimaginable possibilities to all kinds of students, Horn said.

Whenever prices get too high, consumers seek — and find — low-cost competitors, University of Ohio economist Vedder said. In addition to the online disruption, other low-cost options have begun to emerge. High school students can earn college credit — and even associate degrees — while they’re still in high school through concurrent enrollment programs, At some point, as consumers seek low-cost options, they may skip college altogether.

“We have something called the GED at the high school level, may-be we could get a college equiva-lency exam developed,” he said.

The low-cost competitors will make it difficult for colleges and universities to continue to raise tuition and could ultimately force prices to fall, Vedder said. Colleges and universities will face more pressure to cut costs.

At the core of all these changes, Horn said, is the fact that the tra-ditional higher education business model is faltering.

“I think that what we are seeing is that the economic models for a lot of universities are just not sustainable,” he said. “Even if the economy somehow rebounds, the reality is that with the pension obligations coming on the books, and the aging population and health care obligations, education funding from states is not going to return to pre-2008 levels anytime soon.”

Norton said she’s optimistic about the future of the university she leads. Even in the uncertain future, it has a lot going for it. It’s large enough that it can benefit from economies of scale. It’s small enough that with the state support it does get, it can keep its tuition relatively low. It has academic strength in key areas, and it has a strong tradition and deep connec-tions to Greeley.

Still, there’s no doubt it must change and adapt to survive and thrive, she said.

Once the key to success was growth. More students equaled more state money, which meant the university could do more and attract more students.

“That relationship is broken,” she said. “In this more complex environment that we’re in, growth is not necessarily either good or bad.”

What matters now is the kind of students in the kind of programs the university has, the students’ fi-nancial aid requirements and their preparedness for higher education.

“I don’t foresee a large growth of our undergraduate, on-campus, traditional population,” she said. “There’s no reason to believe that there’s going to be a tremendous demand for that, anyway. It’s a relatively expensive model.”

The university will have to focus on areas of prominence and potential such as performing and visual arts, business, education and health sciences, as it learns new ways to deliver education, she said.

“We’re not transforming our mission,” Norton said. “In fact, we

talk a lot about how we build on the tradition.”

‘The highest value to the student’

Despite the dire predictions, the future for higher education may be more evolutionary than revolutionary.

Colorado Department of Higher Education Deputy Execu-tive Director Gianneschi said new technology may not supplant traditional universities, but rather help serve the large and growing demand for higher education as part of the traditional system.

The state’s colleges and univer-sities have begun to think about online learning in a new way, too, he said. One new model might be that students watch lectures at home online and then come into class to do what had been tradi-tionally thought of as homework.

“The highest value to the stu-dent is not sitting and listening,” he said. “The highest value to the student is actually applying that knowledge.”

He said the system is open to embracing technological change and isn’t afraid of it, but there

are some questions that must be answered.

“It takes some time to think about, for example, what does an online lab look like for chemistry? There are certain safety ques-tions you have to answer,” he said. “There are legitimate questions. Can a person go into the field of chemistry having never actually been in a chemistry lab?”

Online learning comes with other problems, too. The technol-ogy isn’t cheap. There are real logistical hurdles when it comes to ensuring students can have access to the professor to actually learn the material. Technology can’t match the social experience that college offers, such as the opportunity to build networks of friends who help each other throughout their lives. The tra-ditional environment also offers the opportunity for students to grow socially and learn about themselves.

“People go to college for lots of reasons,” Horn said. “We have to acknowledge that the major-ity of Americans have actually never had that idyllic college experience. What we see when-ever disruption emerges, people

say, ‘Oh, that’s not very good, it could never replace the four-year experience.’ What they miss is that it’s actually way better than the alternative for these students, which is literally nothing at all.”

Technology will evolve to meet the need, he said. Traditional campuses may use their existing infrastructure less for instruction and more as a place for learners to congregate.

“The disruptions typically and predictably improve faster than our lives change,” he said. “I think you’ll start to see social networks start to form around these online learning experiences that allow students to create different networks around what they need and to socialize with students and other peers.”

No one knows for sure, of course, how technology, demo-graphics and economics will shape higher education during the next three decades or more, but few doubt the power of a university to transform.

“I believe it’s life changing. I think there’s a lot more to it than the education,” said Katy King. “It gives you a good, safe environ-ment to define yourself.”

«ROAD AHEADFrom A5

«Road Ahead

32% $3,103

68% $6,675

Total: $9,778Total: $9,960

68% $6,742

32% $3,218

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

Resident student share (resident tuition) Source: Department of Higher EducationNote: All numbers adjusted for inflation in 2012 dollars.State share (general fund)

» Tuition versus state funding

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-102010-11

2011-12

2012-13

$800

$700

$600

$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0

Source: Department of Higher Education

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Tota

l sta

te a

nd A

RRA

fund

ing

(mill

ions

)

General fund Funding from ARRA

» State funding for public institutions of higher educationWith help of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the state was able to supplement the amount of funding to higher education institutions in the years when the recession was at its worst.

$555

$555

$555

$151

$706

$519

$519

$513

$513

$324

$382

$706

$615

$644$29

$653

$653

$602

$602

Richard K. Vedder, an eco-nomics professor at Ohio University, said at some point economic factors will force tuition to fall, prompt-ing colleges and universities to seek new ways to cut costs.Those might include:» Year-round education: While schools like UNC already have begun to use their buildings more ef-ficiently, there will likely be more pressure for profes-sors to teach year-round and some schools could offer year-round degree pro-grams, give students the op-portunity to cut time off the program if they take classes 12 months a year.» Professors also will likely face pressure to teach more.» Universities could make further cuts to administra-tive positions, in places like public relations and other areas that don’t directly touch the classroom.» Tenure for faculty, which began about a century ago in the U.S., may go by the wayside.» Some schools could sell residence halls and dining facilities to private vendors, shedding anything not di-rectly related to education.» Some mid-level uni-versities may work with web-based providers to outsource some instruc-tion to institutions similar to Coursera.“Colleges are slow to do these things. They’re not popular with anyone on campus, but they’re proba-bly going to happen,” Vedder said. “The economic forces that are at work are going to force some kind of change.”

» Cutting costs

JIM RYDBOM/jrydbom@greeleytribune.com

UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN COLORADO students make their way around campus near the University Center.

A6 » SUNDAY, AUGUST 26, 2012 » THE TRIBUNE

THE DRAWING BOARD

BART SMITH: PUBLISHER (970) 392-4403, bsmith@greeleytribune.com

RANDY BANGERT: EDITOR (970) 392-4435, rbangert@greeleytribune.com

LARRY RYCKMAN: LOCAL NEWS EDITOR (970) 392-4422, lryckman@greeleytribune.com

THERESA MYERS: EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR(970) 352-0211, ext. 11252, tmyers@greeleytribune.com

DAN ENGLAND: ADVENTURE EDITOR(970) 352-0211, ext. 11225, dengland@greeleytribune.com

MIKE CAMPBELL: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERext. 11104, mcampbell@greeleytribune.com

NICOLE DURHAM: COPY DESK CHIEFext. 11236, ndurham@greeleytribune.com

EDITORIAL BOARD

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

«Letters to the editor are limited to 300 words. Full name, address and phone number are required. Email to letters@greeleytribune.com or send to The Tribune, P.O. Box 1690, Greeley, CO 80632.

LAST WEEK’S QUESTION AND RESULTSWHAT IMPROVEMENTS WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE ON 8TH AVENUE?

»Trees and plants

»It's fine the way it is.

» Better lighting

» Artwork

» A median

» Benches

TOTAL VOTES: 753

THIS WEEK’S QUESTIONIS A COLLEGE EDUCATION WORTH THE MONEY?» Yes» No » It depends on the degree and your field of study. » It depends on the institution you select.

NOTEOur question of the week is a sounding board, not a scientific survey. The results of this survey are evidence only of what some readers think. With that spirit in mind, we hope you participate in our dialogue about important topics of the day. Preference for publication will be given to signed letters to the editor.

TO PARTICIPATEGo to www.greeleytribune.com, where your vote will be tallied. You also can write a letter 300 words or fewer and send it to letters@greeleytribune.com or The Tribune, P.O. Box 1690, Greeley, CO 80632.Letters must include your full name, address and telephone numbers. Publication is based on verification of the author. Letters are generally publish in the order in which they are received by The Tribune.All letters are subject to editing, both for length and for content. The results of this week's web poll will be published on next Sunday’s Voices page.

32.27%24 VOTES

30.68%231X VOTES

19.26%145 VOTES

7.44%56 VOTES

6.91%52 VOTES

3.45%26 VOTES

A8» SUNDAY, AUGUST 26, 2012 » THE TRIBUNE«SundayVoices

THERESA MYERS, section editor « (970) 352-0211, ext. 11252 « tmyers@greeleytribune.com

In the midst of the Civil War, the Morrell Act, establishing land grant universities, made the first government commit-ment to higher education. Before the end of that century, the states shouldered their responsibilities by establishing state universities and specialized schools (like UNC’s predeces-sor). The 20th century saw the advent of com-munity colleges and the post-World War II GI Bill expanded that government responsibil-ity, leading to one of the most dramatic economic explosions in our history. The offspring of those GIs formed a huge bump in higher education in the 1970s and ‘80s, further contributing to our healthy economy, envied by the rest of the world, even with its sporadic ups and downs.

The grandchildren and great grandchildren of these economic architects are now our responsi-bility but the prognosis is bleak, with both states and federal budgets shirking that responsi-bility. And that, folks, is us! For continued economic growth, if for no other reason, we should insist that historical public responsibil-

ity be resumed, and be willing to share the cost.

That being said, let’s be realis-tic. It won’t happen soon. Mean-while, tuition will be relied upon to meet increased costs. There is a school of thought that an even higher tuition can be afforded by some of our parents, with a por-tion of that higher tuition being spread into scholarships for low income students.

However, that socialization of cost leaves a gaping hole for the middle income ($40,000-$120,000) families, who are the bulk of college students and who will find the tuition struggle most severe.

Middle income families espe-cially will seek almost any avenue to reduce cost. Obvious pos-sibilities: the first two years in a community college in increasing numbers; increased use of on-line education or other cheaper delivery systems, whether from the local institution or a distant competitor; compressing four years into three; starting college while still in high school.

Less obvious, though, as con-sumers, parents will more closely scrutinize costs. They will be ask-ing questions of any operation, any staff position (many of which grow by accretion or habit), any non-classroom activity, even for internal convenience, “Do any tu-ition dollars go to this expense?”

Same question by taxpayers. Institutions will compete more intensely not only in program, but in cost, which includes not only tuition but room and board or other elaborate and expensive peripherals — little publicized costs frequently overshadow-ing tuition. An example: “Will this particular technology, even though it increases efficiency and make it easier for the school, really add to the education I am receiving; is it really worth my tuition (or taxpayer) dollar?” Unless costs, including salaries, are examined, they will continue to rise.

Increasingly, because of costs both to parents and to taxpayers, higher education will focus on the marketplace. On the consumer side, will it lead to a job? “Is it worth the cost, especially if costs continue to rise?” From a busi-ness standpoint, will the poten-tial employee meet my needs? Community colleges such as Aims have demonstrated the ability to make a quick turnaround to meet specific business needs.

Colleges and universities are much slower traditionally (“mov-ing a curriculum is like moving a cemetery”) but are and will need to do so, particularly in fields requiring at least a four-year degree. But the corollary, are businesses willing to support these changes financially? And

as more students enter the mar-ketplace, businesses and higher education will more extensively cooperate in providing continu-ing growth.

At both levels, the students will be more diverse. Teaching styles will likely change to meet the needs of students who have been exposed to and are proficient in technology, audiovisuals and who themselves are more heteroge-neous demographically.

Worrisome and likely to get lost in the face of so many competing demands is that the fundamental purpose of educa-tion may be slighted: to develop educated thoughtful citizens who understand to basic tenets of this society of ours and who can understand, sort through and contribute to the arts and literature and competing political philosophies, which have made this wonderful country we have inherited.

Dick Bond was president of the University of Northern Colorado

(1971-81), served three terms in the Colorado Legislature (1984-

90), two on the Joint Budget Com-mittee and, after retirement, was

president of Morgan Community College (1991-96) and found-

ing president of the Community Foundation Serving Greeley and

Weld County (1996-2000).

ROAD AHEAD: HIGHER EDUCATION

Higher ed faces many challenges

TRIBUNE OPINION

Higher education must adapt to survive

We like this analogy used by Univer-sity of

Northern Colorado President Kay Norton when discuss-ing the importance of higher education being able to adapt to change: “The defini-tion of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”

It’s true. Higher education is at a critical crossroads. Many institutions of higher education have been slow in adapting to the change cre-ated by technology, demands of students and employers, and consumers who are more and more questioning whether advanced degrees are really worth the time and

money.We believe a college educa-

tion still has great value. It gives young students oppor-tunities to explore different fields of study while spread-ing their wings in a safe environment. It gives older students the opportunity to change careers or retrain themselves to find a different job in a sluggish economy.

Higher education helps teach students to think criti-cally and prepares them for careers in a variety of areas. It increases their lifetime earning potential. More and more employers are requir-ing at least a bachelor’s degree for their workers.

Still, weighing the cost associated with obtaining a degree with the potential benefits is a legitimate act, and

one that causes some parents and students to question if higher education is really worth it. Paying off the debt of college can be a daunting task, especially for students who are having a tough time finding permanent employment in their field of study.

As public funding for higher education has contin-ued to decrease, more of the burden of this cost is being placed on the student and families. Since 2000, the percentage of the Colorado state budget spent on higher education has gone from about 20 percent of state revenue to about 10 percent. Some institutions have ap-proved double-digit tuition increases for several years.

The state money is not com-ing back. And in order not to price themselves out of busi-ness, colleges and universities are going to have to drastically

change the way they do busi-ness. They are going to have to look at new revenue sources as well as new cost savings, including salaries. People like Norton understand that, and hopefully, will begin to have the necessary conversations on campus that will bring about change.

It’s not only the financial configuration that must change, but the institutional and academic aspects as well. Technology has changed the face of higher education in many ways, including giv-ing more students cheaper access to institutions through on-line education. This can be a benefit to some universi-ties that are able to tap into an entirely new student popula-tion. It can also be a threat to the traditional form of educa-tion, which many say is a value in that it promotes debate and discussion more readily.

Some industries are also putting pressure on higher education to tailor programs to their needs. This could be a potential revenue source for institutions if businesses would be willing to help fund these programs.

We know there is no con-crete answer to the questions facing higher education. But we do believe now is the time to begin the discussions about what the future will look like for higher education.

The University of Northern Colorado is an important eco-nomic and academic resource in this community. It is one of the largest employers in the city. Its students contribute greatly to our economy. If it diminishes, we all suffer.

We all have a stake in the future of higher education. It’s time we all think about what we want from these institutions in the future.

Institutions are at a crossroads

Dick BondGUEST COLUMNIST