Generously supported by

RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE & EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: ARE WE PREPARED?

Dr. Blair FeltmateHead, Intact Centre

bfeltmate@uwaterloo.ca

October 31, 2019

2

1. Financial and social costs of extreme weather are

increasing

2. Good news - Canada has well informed guidance to limit

flood risk

3. Profile practical means to limit flood risk:

Home

Community

Natural Infrastructure

4. Summary/Discussion

AGENDA

3

HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER

It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century…

IPCC 2014

WORLD ENERGY SUPPLY (Mtoe)

5

COSTS OF EXTREME WEATHER: P&C CATASTROPHIC INSURABLE LOSSES ($CAD)

Courtesy: Insurance Bureau of Canada

Note: Cost to government and homeowners 3-4X that of private insurers.

Loss + Loss Adjustment Expenses $2017 - total natural-catastrophe losses normalized by inflation and per-capita wealth accumulation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

$ B il li o n

Eastern Ice Storm

Ontario Wind and Rain

Alberta and Toronto Floods

Fort McMurray Fire

Quebec Floods

premiums up 20-25% over past 5 years (15% = water) increase in % of homes with low cap limit ($10 - $20K)

6

MENTAL HEALTH IMPACTS OF BASEMENT FLOODING

“It’s something you never want to experience again in your life” Average time off work following basement flood – 7.1 days

Non-Flooded Respondents (n=37)

Flooded Respondents (n=48)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Three Years After A Flood: Responses to "How Worried Do You Get When it Rains?"

% of Respondents Who Gave a 4 or 5 on a Scale of 1-5 (1= not worried, 5 = very worried)

GUIDANCE ON HOME AND COMMUNITY FLOOD RISK MITIGATION (NRC AND SCC MERIT CREDIT)

6

Home Flood Protection Guideline

New Community Flood Guideline

Existing Community Flood Guideline

Commercial RealEstate Flood Guideline

FLOOD RISKS OUTSIDE THE HOME

Undersized or Leaking Eaves Troughs

Cracks or Gaps in Windows or Frames

Sump Discharge < 2 m from Foundation

Grading Directs Water Towards Foundation

Clogged Drains or Poorly Sealed Doors Below Grade

Downspouts Discharge < 2 m from Foundation

Window Wells < 4-6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

62%

63%

68%

69%

75%

78%

82%

Top Flood Risks Outside the Home

Percent

7

FLOOD RISKS INSIDE THE HOME

Obstruction of Water Flow to Floor Drain

Risk of Damage from Hazardous Materials

Valuables at Risk of Water Damage

Furniture/Electronics at Risk of Water Damage

No Sump Pump Back-Up Power

No Back-Up Sump Pump

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

35%

61%

65%

71%

84%

85%

Top Flood Risks Recorded Inside the Home

Percent

8

SELF-REPORTED MAINTENANCE FLOOD RISKS INSIDE THE HOME

6

9

Significant percentage of residents have never maintained their backwater valve or sump pump systems

No Maintenance of Sump Pump

No Testing of Sump Pump Back-Up Battery

No Maintenance of Backwater Valve

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

40

43

53

Top Self-Reported Maintenance Flood Risks Inside the Home

Percent

11

12

A multitude of actions can be engaged to limit flood risk (applicable to new an existing communities): 1. Flood walls2. Berms3. Diversion channels4. Holding ponds5. Cisterns/storage tanks/

tunnels6. Sewer separation projects7. Naturalized areas

COMMUNITY FLOOD RISK PROTECTION –ROLE FOR NATURAL INFRASTRUCTURE

13

5. PAN-CANADIAN ACTION: NATURAL INFRASTRUCTURE RETENTION AND RESTORATION PROGRAM

Wetlands can reduce infrastructure costs from major storms by 29 – 38%

Next Step: launch national program focused on utilizing natural infrastructure to limit flood risk: retain what you have restore what you have lost build what you must

14

1. Climate change is real and irreversible

2. Means to limit climate change and extreme weather risk have been developed / are being developed

3. Canada must move faster to operationalize practices to limit climate risk

4. Home owners have “the power” to limit home flood risk right now

5. Adaptation is the “gift that keeps on giving”

SUMMARY / DISCUSSION