climate change and extreme precipitation
DESCRIPTION
Extreme weather is becoming more common in our region. Flood events can impact human health and safety, and result in substantial costs to property and infrastructure. Geared toward municipal decision makers and concerned citizens, this forum provides on-the-ground examples of flood resilience strategies that can help Hudson Valley communities minimize risks while conserving financial resources. Presentation by Climatologist for the Northeast Regional Climate Center Jessica Rennells for a flood management forum hosted by the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY on May 4, 2013.TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change &
Extreme Precipitation
Jessica RennellsNOAA, Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell
University
What is Climate Change?The Earth is warming because of
increased greenhouse gases.
Global Average Annual Temperature Anomaly (oF)From meteorological stations 1880-2005
Hansen et al. (2001) J. Geophysical Res. Vol 106, p. 23,947-23,963Data from http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Te
mp
era
ture
An
om
oly
(o F)
Year
1995-2004 vs. 1940-1980
-3.6 -1.8-2.7 -0.9 3.62.7 1.80.90.0
F
189518961897189818991900190119021903190419051906190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191919201921192219231924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201243
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Year
Avera
ge A
nnual Tem
pera
ture
°F
Coldest year on record - 1917
Hottest year on record - 2012
Average Annual Temperature in Northeast
1895 - 2012
Hudson Valley Climate Division Average Annual Temperature
1895-2012
1895 1902 1909 1916 1923 1930 1937 1944 1951 1958 1965 1972 1979 1986 1993 2000 200744
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Year
Tem
pera
ture
°F
Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground 1970-2000
Winter/Spring Center of Volume Dates
Sea level rise
New York State Average Annual Temperature
1895190119071913191919251931193719431949195519611967197319791985199119972003200930
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
Year
Annual P
recip
itati
on (
inches)
Average Annual Precipitation in the Northeast1895-2012
Hudson Valley Climate DivisionAverage Annual Precipitation
1895-2012
1895 1902 1909 1916 1923 1930 1937 1944 1951 1958 1965 1972 1979 1986 1993 2000 200725
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Year
Pre
cip
itati
on (
inches)
Winter Spring
Summer
Fall
Precipitation Trends
2-Day 5-Year Event
1-Day Very Heavy Precipitation
Observed Trends in 1-day Very Heavy Precipitation (1958 to 2010)
NOAA/NCDC
Percent Change in 1-day Annual Maximum Obs Atmospheric Water Vapor
NOAA/NCDC
West Point, NY# of days with 2” or more Precipitation
Irene8/28/2011
72-h Precipitation (in) Ending at 8 AM 29 Aug 2011
Rainfall Associated with TC Irene
1-Day storm events on 8/28/2011
Slide Mtn: 8.62” = 200 yr storm event (8.03”) Rosendale: 8.52” = 100 yr storm event (7.37”) Mohonk Lake: 8.21” = 100yr storm event (7.36”)Walden: 6.65” = 50yr storm event (6.13”)
Projected Rainfall & Frequency of 100-year
storm
1-Day 20-Year Event
Climate Model Ensembles
67%
Average SummerHeat Index
# Days Over 90
Seasonality
Area with Snow Cover for at least 30 days
Under high emissions scenario
Source: CCSR
NYC
Troy
New York City Baseline (1971-2000) 2020s 2050s 2080s
Sea level rise(central range) NA + 2 to 5 in + 7 to 12 in + 12 to 23 in
Rapid Ice-MeltSea level rise NA ~ 5 to 10 in ~ 19 to 29 in ~ 41 to 55 in
Troy Baseline (1971-2000) 2020s 2050s 2080s
Sea level rise(Central range) NA + 1 to 4 in + 5 to 9 in + 8 to 18 in
Rapid Ice-MeltSea level rise NA ~ 4 to 9 in ~ 17 to 26 in ~ 37 to 50 in
Sea level rise
Figure 5.6. Hudson River Estuary with location of salt front on 10/30/2009, approximate distance is 53 river miles from the Battery at New York City (USGS).
•Rising sea level• slope of the river 2 ft/150 mi• sea level rise 1 in/decade • 0.6 mi up river/ year
•Reduced precip
•Increased temp (more evap)
Salt Front Migration
Flood-Producing Extreme Precipitation - Frontal systems
- Thunderstorms - Coastal storms - Nor’easters- Tropical storms
Other Factors – How will Climate Change affect these?
More Flooding?
- Rain-on-snow events- Geography- Antecedent soil conditions
Less Flooding?
- Snowmelt- Ice Jams- Rain-on-snow events- Antecedent soil conditions
No affect/Unknown? - Geography- Infrastructure- Impervious surfaces
Time-series represents an areally weighted average of data from 56 stations in the Northeast that have been in operation continuously since 1900.
Data from the NOAA-NCDC (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn).
Average Annual Temperature in the Northeast 1899-2000
Until 2012: 50.2
Average Annual Precipitation in the Northeast, 1899-2000
Time series represent average of 79 meteorological stations in the Northeast.