ph. 416-782-7475www.riskanalytica.com

About RiskAnalytica

2013

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Who We Are

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Independent health policy and business decision consulting organization based in Toronto

Team of scientists, economists, and health policy analysts working together to assess and forecast complex scenarios

We connect external stakeholders to our client projects to create exposure and foster change

Regularly publish in academic journals and attract media attention

Collaborated with 400+ experts

Worked with 40+ Clients

Generated 60+ reports

Since 2003

Who We Serve

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Client Using microsimulation and predictive analysis to:

Not-for-profit Organizations

Raise awareness of disease burden by quantifying its health and economic impacts

and identifying beneficial interventions

Pharma

Build business cases for a therapeutic intervention by assessing its policy value and

cost-effectiveness

Policy Makers

Provide evidence-based quantitative support for policy change or informed investments

Other Private Organizations

Optimize operational processes, maximize revenues, retain customers, etc.

Clients seeking improvement, relevance and change through evidence-based quantitative analysis

A proven method of connecting and facilitating stakeholders and experts with data and mathematical modeling.

Agent-based, event-driven mathematical microsimulation model called the Life at Risk Platform. The model is of a class as described in section 4.1.65 of the OECD Health Working Papers No. 59

The life trajectories of individual people are followed through various health and economic states

Realistic representation of the complexity of systems Ability to discern the life and economic value propositions of change Provides a means to reconcile value propositions with actual events Sensitivity and scenario analysis to locate value, costs and risks Cost/benefit and marginal return analysis to support policy intervention

evaluations

Background on Microsimulation

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What is it?

Why is it used?

Algorithm models whose outputs provide predictive insights into a

specific scenario based on historical data

Widely applied in several industries such as in financial services,

telecommunication, retail, healthcare, and insurance

Algorithms can “train” on new emerging data thereby adapting and

becoming more accurate

Unprecedented amounts of big data available Opportunity to capitalize on untapped potential Identify hidden risks and implement preemptive mitigation strategies Add context and make “sense” out of big data Uncover hidden, valuable insights in data

Background on Predictive Analytics

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What is it?

Why is it used?

Microsimulation and Predictive Analytics Can….

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Context Microsimulation and Predictive Analytics Can… Outcome

Healthcare

Assess current and future burden of illness and effects of continuums of care

Identify areas in need of interventions (policy, therapeutic, etc)

Forecast market access landscape of therapeutics Optimize resource allocation for new therapeutic areas

Identify inefficiencies within the healthcare system

Address identified elements to improve healthcare (eg. reduce hospital admissions, save

costs, reduce caregiver burden, etc.)

Quantify and compare effects of interventions in the present and future

Evidence-based, optimized allocation of funds for the greatest benefit

Retail

Identify consumer behaviour trends and patterns Tailor marketing strategy

Identify and target “best” customers Manage profitable customer relationships

Identify potential customers and those at risk of leaving

Evidence-guided capture & retain marketing strategy

Asset /Inventory

Management

Predict demand for specific assets or inventory Optimize asset management to reduce warehousing costs

Predict repairs and replacement that challenges typical scheduled asset management practices

Switch to predictive maintenance practice thereby reducing costs and maximizing output

Population Health Analysis

Population Health Data

Sets

Economic Analysis

Our Technology

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50+ Diseases (incidence, prevalence, mortality) 10+ Risk factors (smoking, drinking, obesity, etc) Co-morbidities

Demographics data (age, sex, race, birth, death, immigration, emigration, region)

Direct and indirect healthcare costs Employment & unemployment, fiscal revenue,

income, GDP, personal income taxes, etc

State-of-the-art simulation platform created and optimized over the last 10 years

Flexible and accommodating to complex scenarios in various areas

Once a project is completed, the platform can be reused periodically to generate

more recent outcomes

Team of scientists, economists and analysts working with client to achieve goals and

extract key messages

HealthcareFinanceBusiness IntelligenceInventory/AssetsAnd more…

Client Needs

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Over 50 disease/injury types:

Current Health Scope of Our Microsimulation Platform

Cancer - BreastCancer - ColorectalCancer - LungCancer - ProstateCancer - SkinCancer - TotalCardiovascular - AnginaCardiovascular - CerebrovascularCardiovascular - HypertensionCardiovascular - Myocardial Infarction

Cardiovascular – Other Ischemic Heart DiseaseCardiovascular - TotalDigestive - CirrhosisDigestive - ColitisDigestive – Crohn's DiseaseDigestive - GallstonesDigestive - HerniaDigestive – Peptic Ulcers

Digestive - TotalEndocrine - Diabetes Type1Endocrine - Diabetes Type2Endocrine - Thyroid DisordersEndocrine - TotalExternal – Motor Vehicle AccidentsExternal - TotalExternal –

Unintentional FallsGenitourinary - Chronic Kidney DiseaseGenitourinary - TotalGenitourinary - Urinary IncontinenceMental - AnxietyMental - Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorders

Mental - Conduct DisordersMental - DementiaMental - Mood DisordersMental - Psychotic DisordersMental – Substance Use DisordersMental - TotalMusculoskeletal – Back PainMusculoskeletal – Osteoarthritis

Musculoskeletal - OsteoporosisMusculoskeletal – Rheumatoid ArthritisMusculoskeletal - TotalNervous - Alzheimer's DiseaseNervous - EpilepsyNervous - MigraineNervous – Multiple SclerosisNervous - Parkinson's Disease

Nervous - TotalRespiratory – Acute Respiratory InfectionsRespiratory - AsthmaRespiratory - Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary DiseaseRespiratory - TotalSkin – Total

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Examples of High Impact Projects

Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (2006)Life and Economic Burden of Cancer: 2002 to 2032

Ontario Lung Association (2011)Life and Economic Burden of

Lung Disease in Ontario: 2011 to 2041

Arthritis Alliance of Canada (2011)Life and Economic Burden ofOsteoarthritis and Rheumatoid Arthritis2010 to 2040

Cancer Institute NSW (2007)Life and Economic Burden ofCancer, NSW, Australia 2007 to 2010

National Microbiological Lab, PHAC (2009)Dr. Lindsay E. Nicolle Award 2010 Pandemic simulation

Mental Health Commission of Canada (2013)The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental Illnesses in Canada, 2011 to 2041

Alzheimers Society Canada (2010)Life and Economic Burden of Dementia: 2010 to 2040

Examples of High-Impact Projects

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• Project Summary:

• Quantified the current and future burden of major mental health illnesses in Canada from 2011 to 2041

• First major attempt at quantifying the present and future burden of 7 mental illnesses using a meta analysis of several databases, including:

• 6 childhood, 7 adolescent, and 6 adult conditions • Three-year of collaboration with 30 experts

• Based on world-renowned cohort study data our simulation followed patients longitudinally

The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental Illnesses in Canada, 2011 to 2041

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The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental Illnesses in Canada, 2011 to 2041

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Publication The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry

The Mental Health Strategy for Canada

Publication The Journal of Child Psychology and

PsychiatryThe Report

The Life and Economic Burden of Lung Disease in Ontario, 2011 to 2041

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Microsimulation of the life and economic impacts of asthma, COPD and lung cancer in Ontario over the next 30 years

Assessed the value of ‘what-if’ scenarios related to lung disease prevention, treatment and care programs including:

• A comprehensive smoking cessation program;

• Access to accurate diagnosis with spirometry; • Comprehensive Patient Care Model;• Access to Pulmonary Rehabilitation

Involved the input of16 subject-matter experts across Ontario and 24 members of the stakeholder panel including health professional bodies and industry partners

The Life and Economic Burden of Arthritis in Canada, 2010 to 2040

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Microsimulation of the life and economic impacts of osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) over 30 years

Identified potential strategies for managing the burden of arthritis by quantifying the long-term value of four arthritic care interventions including:

• Access to DMARD and Biologic Use for RA;• Total Joint Replacement Surgery for OA; • Pain Management Strategies for OA; and • Primary Prevention Program for OA.

Collaborated with members of the Alliance for the Canadian Arthritis Program (ACAP) including epidemiologists, researchers, clinicians, government and patient representatives.

Results gained widespread media attention including public news reports

• Developed real-time early pandemic warning algorithms for severe seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza across 157 health regions of Alberta

• Processed real-time ARTSSN data to predict peak attack rate

Early-Warning Epidemic and Pandemic Algorithms

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• Updated client with weekly reports which were disseminated to the high- ranking officials in Alberta

Predicting Intra-Day Stock Prices

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Fidessa Group plc is a FTSE 250 Index company with

85% of the tier one global equity brokers using their

platform.

Received daily 15GB data for the top 100 TSX stocks

with information on trades, bids, offers, and order-flow

movements for all traders and venues.

The challenge: Develop algorithms that can predict

the direction of stock price moves minute by minute to

support efficient fast order routing

The result: Algorithms developed with a probability of

being wrong equivalent to the chance of rolling 103

heads in a row using a fair die (ie. for 2 minutes in

every 16 hrs of trading the algorithm predicts

incorrectly)

• While it is well known that the quality and quantity of infrastructure has a direct impact upon how efficiently societies are able to operate and grow, individuals and businesses have yet to connect underinvestment in infrastructure to their personal prosperity.

Economic Microsimulation

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• Using economic and demographic microsimulation, the impacts of long-term infrastructure investment patterns on future economic production, income of employees, and net profits after-tax of employers were assessed for a 50 year period.

• The results emphasized the potential risk that Canadian employees and employers bear when long term infrastructure trends tend towards persistent underinvestment.

• Actuarial analysis is constrained to consider only a subset of variables under simplified assumptions that can expose a benefits plan to future funding risk.

• Used microsimulation of a 40,000 member plan, and data mining 15 years of return to work rates, health state, claim types, plan membership and retirement ages

• Results: The Plan was shown to be exposed to the risk of being underfunded by 2023 given the conjunction of return to work and retirement age probabilities.

Benefit Plan Microsimulation

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• The impact of a pandemic is sensitive to the timing of vaccine availability and the use of antivirals

• Antivirals only (No Vaccine curves) could reduce direct cost by over 50% ($400 million) and hospitalizations by 38% (over 34,000)

• If vaccines were widely available 2 months after the virus was identified and used with antiviral treatment:

– Over 80% of hospitalizations could be prevented – Direct costs reduced by up to 95%, or $650 million, (excluding cost of vaccination)– The economic productivity impact could increase by more than 80% to less than $1 billion

Pandemic Microsimulation and Vaccine Production

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RiskAnalytica

2020

45 Mutual StreetSuite 200

Toronto, ON M5B 2A7

Email: info@riskanalytica.comTel: (416) 782-7475

www.riskanalytica.com