reston urban road & transit improvement forecast

8/19/2019 Reston Urban Road & Transit Improvement Forecast

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Reston’s Coming Urban Area Transportation Network:

An Early Look at the Cost of Streets and Transit in and around Reston’s Station Areas

March 24, 2016

Summary

The transportation infrastructure needed to support the future development of Reston’s transit station

areas is likely to cost more than five billion dollars over the next 40 years in current dollars. The bulk of

that cost will likely be for a roadway network—the grid of streets within each station area and the

“Reston-wide” roadways that provide access to them—at a cost of more than four billion in current

dollars. A few tens of millions of dollars will be needed over that time to improve pedestrian, bicycle,

and other transportation access within the station areas.


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Reston 20/20 Committee

Assuming federal, state, regional, and other non-local revenue sources pick up $20 million of that annual

Reston transportation improvement cost and developers field their share of the property taxes, Reston

households would likely see an average of about $340 per year added to their to their property tax bills

over the next 40 years if any of Options #3-#6 are selected. That’s $10,000-$17,000 in added property

taxes over 40 years per Reston household depending on the funding option and tax districting selected.

The total added tax cost to Reston households would likely be more than one-half billion dollars if one of

Options #3-#6 is selected, but it could go as high as one billion dollars using Option #5 Reston-wide over

the timespan of this forecast.

The overall cost for Reston’s urban transportation improvements will be nearly twice what has been

presented to the RNAG over the next 40 years using conservative assumptions of future development and inflation. Developer stakeholders have millions of dollars to gain annually by shifting more of that

large financial burden to the “public” rather than placing it upon themselves. It is imperative that the


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Reston’s Coming Urban Area Transportation Network:

An Early Look at the Cost of Streets and Transit in and around Reston’s Station Areas

March 24, 2016

Introduction

With the saga of creating a new Reston Master Plan (RMP) completed last year, efforts are underway to

create and cost a plan to implement those development guidelines, most notably an effort to create a

transportation improvement framework for the Reston transit station areas (TSAs). Some Restonians

may be aware that Supervisor Hudgins has created a Reston Network Analysis Group (RNAG) to examine

what roadway improvements need to be made in (“network grid of streets”) and around (“Reston-wide”) Reston’s transit station areas (TSAs) to accommodate the planned high-density growth there.

The RNAG’s efforts ignore a critical urban area transportation capability: The RNAG’s charter does not

address the key role transit has to play in the future development of Reston’s urban areas if a street

network of LOS “E” is to work at all. In fact, without adequate transit, both the Reston-wide streets and

the street grid will fail with serious consequences for planned development.

One of the most challenging issues in developing a comprehensive urban transportation plan for Reston

is planning for the huge investment it will entail, including determining who will pay those costs. The

RNAG has just begun to wrestle with these issues in terms Reston’s urban street network. In the

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Costing Reston’s Needed Roadway Improvements

The RNAG is examining the costs of the grid of streets and the through streets that they link to as well aswho will pay for these major roadway improvements. At this point, the preliminary County estimate of

the costs of building these streets is about $2.6 billion in 2015 dollars as shown below.

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inflation’s impact between the two is due to the need to build the foundational Tysons-wide street

improvements early (the first 20 years) resulting in less inflation impact and fill in the grid of streets as

development occurs more linearly over the 40-year timeframe. Combining these varying cost growth

rates on a weighted basis in a large spreadsheet calculating inflated costs for each project at three

percent, the results indicated that total costs would increase by 58.2% over 40 years.

Applying these 40-year inflation adjustments by category of roadway to the 2015 dollar values the

County presented to RNAG, “Reston-wide” street costs increase from $1.345 billion to $1.887 billion and

the “grid of streets costs rises from $1.244 billion to $2.209 billion. The order of magnitude total 40-

year current dollar cost for Reston’s streets will be about $4.1 billion or about $100 million per year.

But What about Bus Transit?


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What is most important in the above table is that roadway improvement costs comprise only about two-

thirds of the $3.0 billion 2012 dollar cost of the transportation projects in Tysons. (See Appendix A for

the individual projects covered in these forecasts in 20-year increments.) To understand the

comparable forty-year costs in Reston transportation development, we need to take two steps:

Calculate the impact of inflation using the MCA inflation analysis used above for the grid of

streets.

Adjust the costs of the Tysons forecast to account for the fewer Metro stations, smaller area,

and reduced density of planned development in Reston.


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and residents in Tysons versus 57,000 jobs-residents per station in Reston per station. (Reston

plans for about 76% the jobs and residents as Tysons.)

Tysons is a larger physical area (1,956 acres) than Reston’s urbanizing areas (1,683 acres) and

will require more transit to provide the same level of service. (Reston is 86% the size of Tysons.)

The logical way to discount Tysons’ transit spending to fit Reston at approximately the same level of

transit service per capita would seem to be to calculate the total jobs and residents per station and

multiply that by the relative size of Reston to Tysons.

Reston Transit Discount Factor = (Reston/Tysons Total Jobs & Residents per Station) X (Reston Acres/Tysons Acres)

which is: 0.76 X .86 = .654 = Reston Transit Discount Factor

Applying this discount factor to adjust the cost of future transit improvement costs in Tysons

($889 million) to Reston is as follows:

2012 Dollar Cost of Reston Urban Area Transit = $889MM X .654 = $581MM.

Like the “grid of streets,” spending on transit grows evenly over the 40-year period and, therefore, we

have used the grid’s inflation factor (77.6%) to adjust to current dollars. As a result, the relative cost of

transit improvements in Reston adjusted by the core differences in the number of stations and

development intensity and inflation, the current dollar 40-year cost of improving transit in Reston urban

areas would be about a $1,032 million.

The Total Cost of Reston Transportation Improvements


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We will be the first to admit that this order of magnitude forecast is filled with uncertainties. In

particular, the transit forecast is based on an extrapolation from Tysons planning, not an analysis of

specific Reston needs. A key question in that situation is whether County leaders intend to provide

transit service to Reston with the same high level of service as it is planning for Tysons. On the otherside of that calculation, the comparable planned roadway costs in Reston are probably higher as a share

of total costs than in Tysons because of the expensive Dulles Corridor crossings in Reston (Town Center

Parkway underpass, Soapstone and South Lakes overpasses) needed to ease congestion on its main

north-south through streets.

More broadly, there are a number of other costs that are not covered in this analysis to make it more

comparable with the analysis of Tysons needed transportation improvements. Early in the Tysonseffort, the total cost of all transportation improvements needed to sustain Tysons was put at more than

$15 billion, a five-fold increase of the $3.0 billion in costs we have found comparable to the

transportation improvement issues Reston now faces In most cases these additional improvements


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The cost of operating the current roadway and transit infrastructure. (The state maintains most

roads and transit is not being discussed by RNAG.)

Nonetheless, the following is clear:

The cost of building a transportation infrastructure to support the urbanizing areas of Reston

will be about twice as large as has been suggested to date—and certainly not discussed in the

development of the Reston Master Plan where it may have prompted more conservative, fiscally

sound development density goals.

Transit improvement costs, which are not on the table yet, will probably comprise about $1billion of the $5 billion needed in transportation improvements within Reston’s urban areas.

The County has not indicated when Reston urban area transit issues will be considered.

There may well be additional costs beyond those discussed above, including improvements in

Reston’s access to the Dulles Toll Road and other improved transit services to the rest of Reston

and possibly even the County.

Paying for Reston’s Transportation Improvements

$125 million per year is a lot of money for an urban area, a community, or even Fairfax County to pay to

support the for-profit endeavors of Reston’s station area developers to grow their profits. The good

news is that there is a diversity of public funding sources extending well beyond the County or Reston.

The County anticipates that about $303 million dollars in public funds will be available annually (starting

in 2021) for transportation spending county-wide of which $171 million (56%) comes from local sources.

Estimated Annual Public Funds Available

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Reston Transit Station Areas (TSA) (Herndon, Reston Town Center, and Wiehle Reston East

defined in the Reston Phase I Comprehensive Plan Amendment, Approved February 11, 2014).

Reston Phase I Inside of the Reston TSAs would primarily be a private sector responsibility.

These are projects and portions of projects inside the Reston TSAs. The grid is inside the Reston

TSAs and would be a private sector responsibility.

• Option #2: Location – Outside or Inside Reston TSAs--Allocates cost responsibility based on

location of improvements. Reston Phase I improvements outside of the Reston TSAs would be a

public responsibility. Reston Phase I improvements located inside of the Reston TSAs would be

a private sector responsibility. The grid network would be a private sector responsibility.

• Option #3: Through/Local Traffic Ratios-- Allocates cost responsibility based on the ratio of

through and local traffic volumes. Through Traffic: 35%; Local Traffic: 65%. Public sector

responsibility: Through traffic (35%) and half of locally generated traffic (32.5%). Private sector

responsibility: Half of locally generated traffic (32.5%) and the grid network.

• Option #4: Location and Through/Local Ratios-- Incorporates location and through/local ratios.

Reston Phase I Projects Outside of Reston TSAs: public sector responsibility. Reston Phase I

Projects inside of the Reston TSAs: shared public and private sector responsibility based on

through/local traffic ratios. Grid network: private sector responsibility.

• Option #5: Project Category-- Allocates costs on the basis of project type. Reston Phase I

Roadway projects would be a public sector responsibility. Reston Phase I Intersection projects

and the grid network would be the responsibility of the private sector.

• Option #6: Regional vs. Local Significance-- Cost allocation based on Regional or Local benefit

and significance. Regional projects such as the overpasses, underpass, and interchange: public

sector responsibility. Local projects and grid: private sector responsibility.

We believe most of these options are inappropriate for application to Reston urban areas—or other

urban areas. The Tysons Model and the Through/Local Traffic Ratio models have some modest merit,


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o Second, and more importantly, the notion that the public should pay for half of the

“locally generated traffic” under Option #3 is irrational. Developers should pay for all

the “locally generated traffic” under this option because it is their development that is

driving the added traffic. There would be no additional “locally generated traffic” in the

absence of their development. Developers (“private” sources) should pay for all the

added traffic their construction creates.

Option #2 and the last three options use arbitrary and capricious descriptors to characterize who

should pay for roadway improvements that have no ties to benefits, costs, usage, etc.

Moreover, what specific costs fit in each specific category is also arbitrary. Finally, it is almost

certain that more costs, for example, public transit, will be added to this plan, and the likelihood

is that those costs would fall more on the categories for which the public is principally

responsible. These include transportation improvements beyond the Phase I area, added Phase

I improvements not in the grid, improvements in the Phase I area beyond intersections and the

grid, and “regional” roadway improvements. Most worrisome is the fact that County staff

offered up Option #4 (Inside/Outside), the most capriciously defined of the several options, as

the “potential cost allocation model” for Reston with forecast costs showing that the “public”

would pay more than half ($1.345 billion in $2012) of the road improvement costs.

Option #7: Those who benefit financially from the transportation improvements pay for them.

We believe that by far the best criterion for deciding who pays for Reston’s transportation

improvements is determining who directly benefits financially from their construction. Indeed, it raises

the larger question whether the public should subsidize private sector profit-making investments. The

Reston 20/20 Committee believes that for-profit development or redevelopment, including the entireinfrastructure needed to sustain, if not improve, the community’s quality of life, should be paid for by

the developer who ends up generating more revenues and profits as a result. Moreover, by

establishing an intersection lower level of service (LOS) as an acceptable standard for traffic in this


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improvements are not built because tenants/buyers will avoid the resulting traffic and transit

congestion. Yet, no one in the “public,” whether those in the TSAs, Reston, or across the

County will garner additional revenue as a result of their construction.

In short, we believe those who will profit from these roadway (and later transit and other

transportation) improvements should pay for their construction and operation. Such an arrangement is

not only the most fair one for the “public,” it also helps assure that development is fully cost-

constrained and not reliant on a “public” subsidy—public monies bailing out the unwise decisions of for-

profit corporations.

Allocating the “Public” and “Private” Funding Sources

Looking at these costs in current dollars spread across roadway and transit improvements, the allocation

of funding between the public and private sources varies significantly among these seven options.

Nonetheless, the “public” could end up paying more than $2.5 billion for the transportation

improvements under the “Project Category” funding option as the following table shows:


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and tax districting selected. The total added tax cost to Reston households would likely be more than

one-half billion dollars if one of Options #3-#6 is selected, but it could go as high as one billion dollars

using Option #5 Reston-wide over the timespan of this forecast.2

What is “Public” and what is “Private” funding?

As the preceding highlights, what is “public” and what is “private” funding makes a big difference, yet

the County has not defined who fits into the categories of “public” and “private” funding. The definition

of these two terms in a measurable manner becomes very important at this point and should cover at

least the following topics:

Who is the “public?” Are these the people and businesses who live or are located in the station

areas, the totality of Reston, the entire County, or some other geographic area? If it is the


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ability to have developers alone absorb these transportation costs and not pass them on to

tenants/buyers?

The specifics of these definitions have major implications for who ends up paying the costs of Reston’s

urban area roadway improvements. In our view:

The “public”—whoever that is—in general should not pay for any of the improvements because

they will not reap any profits from their construction. Only the owners-developers will.

If the “public” must pay some share of the costs, it should only be that “public” that resides or

does business in the targeted Phase 1 station areas. A minor exception could be made fortransit that serves the Phase 1 areas from the anywhere in the County, which should be paid for

through normal County transit funding unless it is paid for by the “private” developers.

Under no circumstances should the whole of “Reston” be the “public” and share any portion of

the cost of transportation improvements in the station areas. Moreover, those station area

residential developments that were occupied before Phase 1 planning began in early 2010 and

are generally constrained from redevelopment should not be subject to “public” funding

measures, such as special tax districts. “Private” sources, meaning the Phase 1 area landowners-developers, should be constrained

from passing on the cost of their roadway improvements to their tenants—business or

residents—if at all feasible because these tenants will receive no direct financial benefit in

return.

As the County has pointed out in its brief to the RNAG, there are number of special vehicles for funding

both the “private” and “public” portion of all these options ranging from private in-kind contributions to

special tax service districts to gasoline, meals, and cigarette taxes. And, as we pointed out above, there

already is more than $300 million dollars annually available to the County from county, regional, state,

and federal sources to aid in constructing the roads Reston’s urban areas will need. The important


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Key Sources:

Reston Network Analysis Group website

Planning Commission Recommendations to the Board on Certain Tysons-related Activities, September

20, 2012

Reston Funding Plan: Potential Cost Allocations, FCDOT Presentation, February 22, 2016

Reston Funding Plan: Potential Sources of Revenue for Funding Reston Transportation Improvements,

FCDOT Presentation, December 14, 2015

Reston Network Analysis: Stakeholder Kick-Off Meeting, FCDOT Presentation, December 12, 2014

http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/fcdot/restonnetworkanalysis/advisorygroup.htmhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-potential-cost-allocationshttp://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-network-analysis-kickoff-presentation?qid=64aff03d-f0f3-4bb6-b856-cd2ebed27a06&v=qf1&b=&from_search=2http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-network-analysis-kickoff-presentation?qid=64aff03d-f0f3-4bb6-b856-cd2ebed27a06&v=qf1&b=&from_search=2http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-potential-cost-allocationshttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/fcdot/restonnetworkanalysis/advisorygroup.htm


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APPENDIX A: Planning Commission Recommendations to the Board on Certain Tysons-related Activities, Tysons-wide Projects for Funding Purposes,


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APPENDIX B: 2009 County Forecast for Total Tysons Transportation Improvement Costs over 40 Years in 2009 Dollars

Prepared by FC DOT in 2009.

The following three tables break out the project details for the 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 timeframes in Tysons.

Timeframe Capital Costs Operating

Costs Transit Capital

Transit

Operating Roadways Tysons-wide Grid of Steets Capital Costs Operating Costs Tysons-wide

County-wide

Total

2010-2030 $5,299,000,000 $338,000,000 $46,000,000 $343,000,000 $369,000,000 $373,000,000 $742,000,000 $44,000,000 $145,000,000 $7,510,000,000 $7,699,000,000

2030-2050 $0 $656,000,000 $506,000,000 $360,000,000 $0 $0 $493,000,000 $4,854,000,000 $258,000,000 $2,015,000,000 $7,127,000,000

2010-2050 $5,299,000,000 $994,000,000 $552,000,000 $703,000,000 $369,000,000 $373,000,000 $1,235,000,000 $4,898,000,000 $403,000,000 $9,525,000,000 $14,826,000,000

Transit Capital $5,851,000,000 $10,749,000,000

Transit Operating $1,697,000,000 $2,100,000,000

Roadways $1,977,000,000 $1,977,000,000

TOTALComprehensive Plan Projects

(Transit--Metro/Bus) Roadway ProjectsProjects Beyond Comprehensive Plan County-wide Transit


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Project

# Transit Projects

Transit Project

Capital Cost

Aggregate

Transit Project

Roadway

Project1 Metrorail Silver Line Phase 1 (from West Falls Church to Wiehle Ave) $2,640,000,000 $44,000,000 -

2 Metrorail Silver Line Phase 2 (from Wiehle Ave to Rt 772/Ryan Rd in Loudoun County) $2,600,000,000 $39,000,000 -

3 Transit Development Plan (TDP) Service Improvements (Preliminary) $50,000,000 $197,000,000 -

3a Bus Based Circulator (based on Preliminary TDP) $9,000,000 $58,000,000

$5,299,000,000 $338,000,000 -

4 Extend Boone Blvd west from Rt. 123 to Ashgrove Lane - - $99,000,000

5 Extend Greensboro Drive west from Spring Hill Road to Rt. 7 - - $46,000,000

6 Widen Gallows Road from 4-6 lanes from Rt. 7 to Prosperity Avenue (2.56 miles) - - $68,000,000

7 Widen Leesburg Pike (Route 7) to 6 lanes between the Capital Beltway and I-66 - - $43,000,000

8 Widen Chain Bridge Road (Route 123) to 6 lanes from Old Courthouse Road to

- - $21,000,000

9 Widen Chain Bridge Road (Route 123) to 8 lanes between Route 7 and the

- - $27,000,000

10 Widen Magarity Road to 4 lanes between Lisle/Route 7 and Great Falls Street - - $40,000,000

11 Widen Leesburg Pike (Route 7) to 8 lanes between Chain Bridge Road (Route

- - $29,000,000

Removed New interchange at Rt. 7 and Westpark Drive/Gosnell Road - - $80,000,000

Removed New interchange at Rt. 7 and Gallows Road/International Drive - - $80,000,000

Removed New interchange at Rt. 123 and International Drive - - $80,000,000

- - $613,000,000- - -$240,000,000

$5,299,000,000 $338,000,000 $373,000,000

12 Local Streets (By 2030) - - $346,000,000

13 Collector Streets (By 2030) - - $248,000,000

14 Avenues (By 2030) - - $148,000,000

- - $742,000,000Total Grid of Streets Cost

Total Roadway Project CostsTotal Removed Project Costs

Total Adjusted Comprehensive Plan TysonsTransportation Project Costs

GRID OF STREETS (INCLUDING ENHANCED PEDESTRIAN AND BICYCLE CONNECTIVITY)

Order of Magnitude Planning Level Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects Serving Tysons 2010 - 2030

COMPREHENSIVE PLAN PROJECTS

Total Transit Project Costs

Roadway Projects


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15 Local/Regional Routes (based on preliminary TDP) $39,000,000 $295,000,000 -

16 Bus Based Circulator $7,000,000 $48,000,000 -

$46,000,000 $343,000,000 -

17 5C-I-495 Overpass at Tysons Corner Center - - $16,000,000

18 Extension of HOT ramp to inside I-495 - - $16,000,000

19 1D-Dulles Toll Road to Boone Blvd Extension - - $59,000,000

20 3B-Dulles Toll Road to Jones Branch Drive - - $33,000,000

21 2B-Dulles Toll Road to Greensboro Drive - - $24,000,000

22 I-495 Additional Lane (Outer Loop between Rt. 7 and I-66) - - $63,000,000

23 Dulles Toll Road Westbound Collector/Distributor - - $105,000,000

24 Dulles Toll Road Eastbound Collector/Distributor - - $53,000,000- - $369,000,000

$46,000,000 $343,000,000 $369,000,000

$5,345,000,000 $681,000,000 $1,484,000,000

25 Express Bus/BRT Transit Routes (By 2030) $38,000,000 $115,000,000 -

26 Feeder Bus Service to Rail Stations (By 2030) $6,000,000 $30,000,000 -

$44,000,000 $145,000,000 -

COUNTYWIDE TRANSIT PROJECTS

Total Countywide Transit Project Costs

Roadway Projects

Total Roadway Project Costs

Total Additional Projects Beyond Current Comprehensive Plan Costs

Total Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects Serving Tysons 2010 - 2030

(Excluding Countywide Transit Projects)

ADDITIONAL PROJECTS BEYOND CURRENT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

Transit Projects



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Project#

Transit Projects Transit ProjectCapital Cost

Aggregate TransitProject Operating Costs

Roadway ProjectCapital Cost

27 Metrorail Silver Line (Phases 1 and 2) - 168,000,000$ -

28 Neighborhood Bus Service (By 2030) - 134,000,000$ -

29 Express Bus/BRT Transit Routes (By 2030) - 220,000,000$ -

30 Feeder Bus Service to Rail Stations (By 2030) - 134,000,000$ -

- 656,000,000$ -

31 Local Streets (Beyond 2030) - - 230,000,000$

32 Collector Streets (Beyond 2030) - - 165,000,000$33 Avenues (Beyond 2030) - - 98,000,000$

- - 493,000,000$

Transit Projects34 Streetcar Based Circulator 500,000,000$ 300,000,000$ -

35 Neighborhood Bus Service (Beyond 2030) 6,000,000$ 60,000,000$ -

506,000,000$ 360,000,000$ -

506,000,000$ 360,000,000$ -

506,000,000$ 1,016,000,000$ 493,000,000$

36 Express Bus/BRT Transit Routes (Beyond 2030) 21,000,000$ 100,000,000$ -37 Feeder Bus Service to Rail Stations (Beyond 203 6,000,000$ 60,000,000$ -38 Additional Rail Extension 2,500,000,000$ 75,000,000$ -39 Orange Line Metrorail Extension (from Vienna to 2,300,000,000$ 23,000,000$

40 2 Park and Ride Garages 27,000,000$ -

4,854,000,000$ 258,000,000$ -

ADDITIONAL PROJECTS BEYOND CURRENT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

Total Countywide Transit Project Costs


Total Additional Projects Beyond Current Comprehen

Total Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects

COUNTYWIDE TRANSIT PROJECTS

Order of Magnitude Planning Level Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects Serving Tysons Beyond 2030(2009 dollars unless noted. Funding will be a mix of local, state, federal and private resources. A variety of financing mechanisms will need to

be utilized.)

EXISTING TRANSIT

Total Existing Transit Costs

GRID OF STREETS (INCLUDING ENHANCED PEDESTRIAN AND BICYCLE CONNECTIVITY)

Total Grid of Streets Cost

reston urban road & transit improvement forecast

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