Resilient Futures

Seth Bullock, Andy Dainty, Rich Dawson, Pete Fussey, Jonathan Rigg, Brooke Rogers,Beverly Searle, Jon Timmis

Operationalizing Resilience for UK Infrastructure and its Stakeholders

Institute for ComplexSystems Simulation

Origins

An EPSRC “Sandpit”: Next-Generation Resilience.Aim: generate adventurous, interdisciplinary research projects targeting infrastructure resilience.• 20+ academics from a range of disciplines• + “mentors”, “facilitators”, guest

speakers…• …and a BBC Radio 4 documentary team…• One week of presentations and

brainstormingCollaborative proposals developed and pitchedR-Futures project green lit

Future Resilience

What will our critical national infrastructure look like in 2030? In 2050? Beyond?

How resilient will it be?

Today’s decision makers will partly determine the answers.

R-Futures aim: to enable resilience considerations to inform current decision making.

What do we Mean by Resilience?

• the ability to cope with shock or stress• “bounce-back-ability”

Iain Dowie: Football manager,

rocket scientist

Adapt

Recover

Resist

Resilience of What to What?

For every sector of our national infrastructure...• transportation, ICT, energy, water, waste• health, government, emergency services

...resilience is seen as increasingly important.

This is particularly significant in the context of:• sustainability• climate change• terrorism

White-Out

Wash-Out

Knock-Out

The R-Futures Team

An interdisciplinary collaboration:- Complex Systems Modellers: Southampton, York

- Civil Engineers: Loughborough, Newcastle- Social Scientists: Durham, Essex, Kings, St Andrews

Key Challenges

• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors

Interdependent Futures...

Attack

Every node needs at least one same type neighbour.

A complex cascade of failures...

Interdependent Networks

Green edges indicate additional inter-network mutual inter-dependencies

Coupling redundancy (K) increases resilience.

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Network A

% Attacked0% 100%

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Interdependent Resilience

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But network B fails less gracefullyeven with high K.

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Network B

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Interdependent Resilience

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Measuring Robustness

How should network A and B be connected and coupled in order to maximise robustness to attack?• If “robustness of Network B” = “size of the

largest post-attack connected component of B”Optimal between-network coupling = zeroOptimal within-network connectivity = maximal

• But real-world networks are coupled together because they need to be.

• What if a viable B node were one in a B fragment that remains: large enough + coupled to A enough.

Init

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Initial Connectivity

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Unconstrained Viability (Γ=0.0)

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Constraining Coupling (Γ=0.1)

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Constraining Coupling

Network B

Initial Coupling Between Network A and B

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Switching from Erdos-Reyni graphs to regular lattices radically changes the influence of coupling.

Influence of Topology

Network B

Initial Coupling Between Network A and B

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Network A

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Open Questions

• Spatial embedding

• Correlated/structured interdependencies

• More than two coupled networks

• Hierarchical multi-network structures

• Dynamic processes on networks: e.g., flows

• Repair and recovery dynamics

• What do post-attack networks look like?

• How functional are they?

Key Challenges

• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors

• Engage with the right stakeholders

Stakeholders

• Halcrow

• Costain

• Arup

• RUSI

• DfT

• BT

• Cabinet Office – Civil Contingencies Secretariat

• Fire & Rescue Service

• Institute of Civil Engineers

• Local Authorities

• National Youth Agency

• Health Protection Agency

• Community Organisations

• TFL

• CPNI

• NaCTSO

• Red Cross

Key Challenges

• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors

• Engage with the right stakeholders

• Address the right future scenarios and hazards

R-Futures Scenarios

R-Futures Scenarios

Decentralised Centralised

New Tech

Trad Tech

High-Tech Hamlets

i-World

Local Power for Local People The Global

Village

Key Challenges

• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors

• Engage with the right stakeholders

• Address the right future scenarios and risks

• Effectively integrate social science and modelling

Scenarios

Models

Stakeholders

Insight

Key Challenges

• Capture the inter-dependencies between sectors

• Engage with the right stakeholders

• Address the right future scenarios and risks

• Effectively integrate social science and modelling

• Make a critical impact on the key stakeholders

Beyond “one number”

• New understanding of interdependencies A demonstrator system that foregrounds resilience Transformative learning in key stakeholders

Evacuation point

Built up areas

Congestion

Flooded area

Trapped agents

What is the best new conduit for insight?

“Serious Games”

There is increasing interest and investment in interactive models for informing policy/strategy.Some key issues revolve around the question of scale:•Spatial: Regional? National? Continental? Global?•Temporal: Acute phase? Recovery? Adaptation?•Governance: Local agencies? National? Community?

Where should the boundaries be drawn for serious games? What needs to be in and what can be left out?

Key Questions for Me

• How can academic research projects align with private sector and policy making imperatives?– “Infrastructure” is an increasingly

crowded area– But academic and non-academic interests

are divergent.– Will we make a difference here and now,

or ever?• What do we want from models?

– Realistic, Accurate, Predictive– “Computational Thought Experiments”– Serious Games, Decision Theatres?

Gaihua Fu Paul Andrews

Dan SageMehdi Khoury

Duncan MortimerJulia Pearce

Kate CochraneLucy Gregson-

Green

Thank you