research update
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Research Update. 10 February 2012 Updated 15 February 2012. Background. What is the reason for increased number of storm reports with the presence of an ALT? Background conditions similar, ALT acts as trigger? ALTs associated with increased CAPE?. Procedure. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Research Update
10 February 2012Updated 15 February 2012
Background
• What is the reason for increased number of storm reports with the presence of an ALT?– Background
conditions similar, ALT acts as trigger?
– ALTs associated with increased CAPE?
ALT at 18Z NO ALT at 18Z0
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18 17.0
9.3
Average Severe Reports per Severe Period (1800 to 0000 UTC)
Procedure• Calculate MUCAPE at 6 different stations at
1800 UTC over the length of the climatology (n=1530)– Stations: CLT, RDU, LYH, RIC, IAD, PHL• Each is located in a different section of the domain (SW,
SE, WC, EC, NW, NE)– MUCAPE is calculated from most unstable parcel
in the lowest 180 hPa of the atmosphere– Dataset used: CFSR– Partitioned into ALT/Non–ALT based on whether
or not an ALT was present at 1800 UTC
Whiskers: 10th and 90th percentile
NARRCFSR
Whiskers: 10th and 90th percentile
NARRNARRCFSR
All median ALT > all median non-ALT at 99% confidence level
All median ALT > all median non-ALT at 99% confidence level
Whiskers: 10th and 90th percentile
CFSR
NARR
Whiskers: 10th and 90th percentile
CFSR
NARR
CLT RDU LYH RIC IAD PHL0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%% ALT Days MUCAPE > 0% Non Days MUCAPE > 0
Percentage of Days with MUCAPE > 0
• Higher proportion of ALT days are associated with >0 MUCAPE compared to non-ALT days
NARR
Whiskers: 10th and 90th percentile
Whiskers: 10th and 90th percentile
Percentage of Days with MUCAPE > 100
CLT RDU LYH RIC IAD PHL0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%% ALT Days MUCAPE > 100
% Non Days MUCAPE > 100
• Higher proportion of ALT days are associated with >100 MUCAPE compared to non-ALT days
• MUCAPE > 0 is more likely on ALT Days• Median MUCAPE is mostly higher on ALT Days, especially
at RIC, IAD and PHL• Median MUCAPE and 75th/90th percentiles are highest at
IAD and PHL• MUCAPE values themselves may be a little low – dataset
issues?• Could this help explain the maximum in storm reports
near IAD?• Why are ALTs associated with higher MUCAPE?– ALTs associated with higher low-level θe?– ALTs associated with steeper low to mid-level lapse rates?
Key Results / Further Questions
Determining CAPE/Shear Phase-Space of First Storm Reports of the Day
• Determine CAPE/shear phase space in which severe thunderstorms in ALT Zone occur– This information could be useful to forecasters in
determining if severe weather is expected
Objective
Procedure• Find location and time of first severe report on
a certain day (0400–0359 UTC)• Calculate MUCAPE and Sfc–500 hPa bulk shear
at location of storm report using nearest NARR analysis time 0.5 to 3.5 hours prior to storm report (n=576)
First report (UTC) Corresponding NARR analysis
time (UTC)1530–1829 1500
1830–2129 1800
2130–0029 2100
• First storm report occurred between 1530 and 0029 UTC on 76.3% of all days in climatology
Problems from last time
Email 13 Jan 2012
• Items (a), (b) and (c) are addressed in the following slides
Additional Procedures• Clustering – attempt to control for
inconsistencies in “reports per storm”– Overlay a 0.5° by 0.5° grid box over the domain– If a storm report occurs within a certain grid box
on a certain day, that grid box is considered “active” for the day• Any subsequent storm reports occurring within the
active box are discarded for the day• The number of active grid boxes for each day are tallied
to measure how widespread the severe weather was on that day
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Active Grid Boxes
• Some evidence for higher MUCAPE/shear on highly convectively active days, but not likely to be a statistically significant difference
Additional Procedures• Subsectioning – attempt to control for
CAPE/shear of first storm report not being representative of environment in which most storm reports occur
CENTER
NORTH
SOUTH
• North sector shows a higher proportion of days with greater areal coverage of convection
• South sector peaks earlier (1800 UTC) than north sector (2000 UTC)
• Center sector has flat peak between 1800–2100 UTC
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Sectors
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Intervals of Active Grid Boxes per Day – North Sector
• Not much to distinguish days with/without large areal coverage of severe weather
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Intervals of Active Grid Boxes per Day – Center Sector
• Not much to distinguish days with/without large areal coverage of severe weather
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Intervals of Active Grid Boxes per Day – South Sector
• Not much to distinguish days with/without large areal coverage of severe weather
Few first storm reports occurred in this phase-space
Few first storm reports occurred in this phase-space
No first storm reports occurred in this phase-space
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Month – South Sector
• Monthly variability exists in CAPE/shear of first storm reports
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Month – Center Sector
• Monthly variability exists in CAPE/shear of first storm reports
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Month – North Sector
• Monthly variability exists in CAPE/shear of first storm reports
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Intervals of Active Grid Boxes per Day – Center Sector, Jun, Jul, Aug
• Even when broken up by month, still not much to distinguish days with/without large areal coverage of severe weather
1st Report CAPE/Shear by Intervals of Active Grid Boxes per Day –
Center Sector, May & Sep
• Some evidence of preference toward high shear/low CAPE during May and Sept., but “n” is small
• Clustering/subsectioning approaches show:– North sector showed highest proportion of days
with greater areal coverage of severe reports– North (south) sector has a peak in time of first
severe report at 2000 (1800) UTC, with center sector showing a flat peak between 1800–2100 UTC
– First storm reports in north (south) sector occur in environments of greater shear (CAPE), lesser CAPE (shear) than the other sectors
– North sector shows an area on the CAPE/shear phase space where severe weather does not happen
Key Results / Further Questions
• Clustering/subsectioning approaches show:– In all sectors, median CAPE is higher in JJA, while
median shear is higher in MS• Highest CAPE/lowest shear occurs in August in
North/Central sectors; July/August in South sector– Boxplots show that CAPE/shear at first storm report
is not a good indicator of how convectively active a particular day will be• Why?
– Need dataset with better temporal resolution?– Background conditions are of less importance than the strength
of forcing for ascent?
Key Results / Further Questions
Key Results / Further Questions• Given the background convective parameters of
the ALT Zone, what is the role of the ALT/PFT in triggering convection in the ALT Zone?– We have seen that ALTs are associated with above-
average MUCAPE, especially in the North Sector– Where does convection/severe weather occur with
respect to the ALT/PFT?– What are the processes by which the ALT/PFT
triggers/sustains/enhances convection?