research article precipitation trends over time...

Research ArticlePrecipitation Trends over Time Using Mann-Kendall andSpearmanrsquos rho Tests in Swat River Basin Pakistan

Ijaz Ahmad1 Deshan Tang1 TianFang Wang2 Mei Wang1 and Bakhtawar Wagan1

1College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China2School of Earth Science and Engineering Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China

Correspondence should be addressed to Ijaz Ahmad engrijaz786gmailcom

Received 14 October 2014 Revised 12 December 2014 Accepted 16 December 2014

Academic Editor Harry D Kambezidis

Copyright copy 2015 Ijaz Ahmad et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a countryThis research investigated precipitationvariability across 15 stations in the Swat River basin Pakistan over a 51-year study period (1961ndash2011) Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearmanrsquos rho (SR) statistical tests were used to detect trends in monthly seasonal and annual precipitationand the trend-free prewhitening approach was applied to eliminate serial correlation in the precipitation time series The resultshighlighted a mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends in monthly seasonal and annual precipitation Onestation in particular the Saidu Sharif station showed the maximum number of significant monthly precipitation events followedby Abazai Khairabad and Malakand On the seasonal time scale precipitation trends changed from the summer to the autumnseasonThe Saidu Sharif station revealed the highest positive trend (748mmyear) in annual precipitation In the entire Swat Riverbasin statistically insignificant trends were found in the subbasins for the annual precipitation series however the Lower Swatsubbasin showed the maximum quantitative increase in the precipitation at a rate of 218mmyearThe performance of theMK andSR tests was consistent at the verified significance level

1 Introduction

Rainfall and other precipitation levels are important factorsaffecting crop selection and ecological changes in a regionAccurately predicting precipitation trends can play an impor-tant role in a countryrsquos future economic development

Rahman and Begum [1] noted that predicting trendsusing precipitation time series data is more difficult thanpredicting temperature trendsThe fourth IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported temporal and spa-tial variation in precipitation trends throughout the latter halfof the century across Asia [2] Recently meteorologists andother researchersworldwide have paid significant attention toanalyzing precipitation time series trends Decreasing trendsin mean annual rainfall have been found in the coastal andarid plains of Pakistan [3] Northeast and North China [4 5]Madhya Pradesh India [6] and Russia [7 8] Increasingmean annual rainfall trendswere observed in the Chang Jiang

valley southeast coastal areas andWesternChina [4 5 9] andBangladesh in the summer season [10 11]

Different statistical test methods are used to detect trendsin hydrological and hydrometeorological time series theseare classified as parametric and nonparametric tests [12ndash14]Parametric tests are more powerful but require that data beindependent and normally distributed which is rarely truefor hydrological time series data For nonparametric testsdata must be independent but outliers are better toleratedThemost commonnonparametric tests forworkingwith timeseries trends are the Mann-Kendall [15 16] and Spearmanrsquosrho [17 18] testsTheMann-Kendall test is the most commonone used by researchers in studying hydrologic time seriestrends [19ndash23] less common Spearmanrsquos rho is used todetect monotonic trends in hydrometeorological data [24]In many studies Spearmanrsquos rho is used in combinationwith the Mann-Kendall test for comparison purposes [24ndash28]

Hindawi Publishing CorporationAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2015 Article ID 431860 15 pageshttpdxdoiorg1011552015431860

2 Advances in Meteorology

Natural disasters including avalanches cyclones andstorms droughts and floods and cloudburst flash floods(CBFF) pose serious risks to Pakistani society [29ndash31]Pakistan has faced one major flood approximately every 3years creating challenges for economic development [32]In 2010 Pakistan faced the worst flood event in its history[33] Experts from the World Climate Research ProgrammeandWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) have statedthat climate change is one of the main reasons for thisunprecedented sequence of weather events A UN scientificbody concluded that hot extremes heat waves and heavyprecipitation events will likely continue to become morefrequent in Pakistan the same body warns that floodsmay become more frequent and intense in the future [2]WMO has noted that the 2010 floods were consistent withthe sequence predicted by climate experts further statingthat current events match projections of more frequent andintense weather events due to global warming [34]

Floods in Pakistan are generally caused by concentratedheavy precipitation in watersheds sometimes augmented bysnowmelt flows causing river floods during the monsoonseason Hartmann and Andresky [35] reported that the pre-cipitation regimes in northwest areas of Pakistan are mainlycontrolled by monsoon rains from July to September theyhave become more intense in recent years Salma et al [36]analyzed Pakistan rainfall trends using analysis of variance(ANOVA) from 1976 to 2005 and concluded that while theoverall rainfall trends have declined rainfall consequencessuch as droughts and super floods have badly affected humansettlements water management and agriculture sectorsHanif et al [37] found significant precipitation changes innorthern parts of Pakistan during the summer and monsoon(July and August) seasons Significant increasing trends inprecipitation over time have been detected in northeastareas of Pakistan during the monsoon season [38] Cheemaand Hanif [39] detected increasing rainfall trends in thePunjab province of Pakistan Significant increasing trendswere detected in the northwest (Hindu Kush and SulaimanMountains) and in the east (Himalayas) areas of the IndusRiver basin insignificant negative trends were found in thenortheast (Karakorum and Transhimalaya) and lowland ofthe upper Indus River basin [35 40]

During the last week of July 2010 unprecedented rains fellin Swat andKabul river catchment areas causing catastrophicfloods in excess of 400000 cusecs exceeding the previousrecord flood set in 1929 (250000 cusecs) and impacting24 districts of the KPK province of Pakistan [32] Due tochanging weather patterns Pakistanrsquos KPK province and theSwat River area have been exposed to risks from frequentfloods and droughts in recent years [31 41] Most past studieshowever have focused on climatic trend analyses in theupper Indus River basin No precipitation trend studies havefocused on the Swat River basin which has faced frequentfloods and droughts over the years This study fills thisresearch gap

This study investigated trends and variations in precip-itation over time at the Swat River basin in Pakistan usingMann-Kendall and Spearmanrsquos rho tests This study pro-vides a broad overview of precipitation statistics including

seasonal and interannual variability over the SwatRiver basinand may help managers and agricultural planners The studyconsiders precipitation data from 51 years (1961ndash2011) at 15stations

2 Methodology

21 Study Area This study investigates the variability inprecipitation time series for a 51-year period (1961ndash2011) inthe Swat River basin in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK)province of PakistanThe Swat River originates from the highmountains of Swat Kohistan where the mean elevation is4500m in the northwest parts of the country The river flowsthrough the Kalam valley and the Swat district then skirtsthe Lower Dir district flows through Malakand and Mardandistricts and outflows into the Kabul River

The Swat River is important for the future economicdevelopment of Pakistan There are three hydropower plantswith a combined operational capacity of 123MWon the SwatRiver At the time of this writing another hydroelectric powergeneration plant (Munda Dam) with a projected capacityof 740MW is being constructed on the Swat River Thisdam along with the hydropower generation will irrigate15100 acres of land They will also provide flood protectionto theCharsadda andNowshera districts whichwere severelyaffected by flooding in 2010

The riverrsquos catchment area is generally mountainous withelevations ranging from approximately 360m to 4500mfrom south to north Vegetation occurs between 1800mand 3400m and glaciers are visible above 4000m TheSwat River basin catchment lies between a latitude of 34∘001015840north to 35∘561015840 north and longitude 70∘591015840 east to 72∘471015840east

22 Data andMethods The total Swat River basin catchmentarea is 16750 km2 with 15 meteorological stations shown inFigure 1 The area is further divided into four subregionsupper Swat River basin (A1) Panjkora River basin (A2)Ambahar River basin (A3) and Lower Swat River basin(A4) The catchment areas for these basins are 5968 57331485 and 3564 km2 respectively To detectmonotonic trendsmonthly precipitation values were added to generate theannual and seasonal precipitation Mean precipitation valuesat corresponding stations were considered to determinesubbasin precipitation (A1 A2 A3 and A4) and precipitationacross the entire Swat River basin (A) This procedure wasadopted from Duhan and Pandey [6]

Rain gauge stations within the Swat River catchment areaare operated by PakistanMeteorological Department (PMD)Irrigation Department of KPK province (ID) and SurfaceWater Hydrology Project (SWHP) Snowy Mountains Engi-neering Corporation (SMEC) Pakistan under the MundaDam construction project collected the precipitation timeseries data from these agencies and processed it to ensurehomogeneity and quality control [42]

Mann-Kendall and Spearmanrsquos rho tests are nonpara-metric therefore data outliers do not affect the results Thehomogeneity of the precipitation time series was assessed

Advances in Meteorology 3

34∘-00998400

34∘-15998400

34∘-30998400

34∘-45998400

35∘-00998400

35∘-15998400

35∘-30998400

35∘-45998400

36∘-00998400

34∘-00998400

34∘-15998400

34∘-30998400

34∘-45998400

35∘-00998400

35∘-15998400

35∘-30998400

35∘-45998400

36∘-00998400

70∘-4

5998400

71∘-0

0998400

71∘-1

5998400

71∘-3

0998400

71∘-4

5998400

72∘-0

0998400

72∘-1

5998400

72∘-3

0998400

72∘-4

5998400

73∘-0

0998400

70∘-4

5998400

71∘-0

0998400

71∘-1

5998400

71∘-3

0998400

71∘-4

5998400

72∘-0

0998400

72∘-1

5998400

72∘-3

0998400

72∘-4

5998400

73∘-0

0998400

Afghan

istan

A3

A3

A2

A2

A1

A1

A4

A4

N

Ambahar

Abazai

ToorCamp

Dir

Drosh Kalam

Thalozom

Madyan

Khairabad

Saidu Sharif

Malakand

Mardan

RisalpurCharsadda

Kulangi

Upper Swat subbasin

Panjkora subbasin

Ambahar subbasin

Lower Swat subbasin

Figure 1 Locations of meteorological stations at Swat River basin

by applying two tests standard normal homogeneity test(SNHT) [43 44] and Buishandrsquos range (BR) test [45] ata 5 significance level for each station The precipitationtime series is considered homogenous if the critical values ofSNHT and BR statistics are less than 917 [46] and 127 155[45] respectively As Table 1 shows all the precipitation serieswere found to be homogenous

23 Statistical Tests Prior to applying MK and SR teststo identify precipitation trends over the time series fromselected stations data were tested according to the testsrsquo re-quirements The trend-free prewhitening (TFPW) approachwas applied to eliminate serial correlations in the time seriesdata The magnitude of the slope in time series data wascalculated using Senrsquos slope method The statistical methodsused are briefly discussed below

231 Autocorrelation and TFPW Removing serial depen-dence is one of the main problems in testing and interpretingtime series data Applying nonparametric tests to detecttrends can significantly affect the results Therefore all ofthe rainfall time series data was first tested for the presenceof autocorrelation coefficient (119903

1) at a 5 significance level

using a two-tailed test

1199031=

sum119899minus1

119894=1

(119883119894minus 119883) (119883

119894+1minus 119883)

sum119899

119894=1

(119883119894minus 119883)

2

(1)

The autocorrelation coefficient value of 1199031was tested against

the null hypothesis at a 95 confidence interval using a two-tailed test

1199031(95) =

minus1 plusmn 196radic(119899 minus 2)

119899 minus 1

(2)


Table 1 Results of homogeneity tests for mean annual precipitationtime series at study stations

Station SNHT Buishandrsquos range (BR) test1198790

119876radic119899 119877radic119899

Thalozom 916 108 108Drosh 906 117 147Kalam 887 087 108Dir 776 124 149Madyan 485 111 150Khairabad 192 062 093ToorCamp 620 117 154Saidu Sharif 742 118 190Malakand 257 077 086Kulangi 428 097 146Ambahar 508 109 139Abazai 686 121 140Mardan 893 108 124Charsadda 902 125 138Risalpur 724 091 125For homogenous series 119879

0lt 917119876radic119899 lt 127 and 119877radic119899 lt 155

If 1199031falls between the upper and lower limits of confidence

interval (the data are considered serially correlated) themethods of prewhitening variance correlation [47] andtrend-free prewhitening (TFPW) approach [24] have beenproposed In this study for the stations where serial cor-relations were detected in the data the TFPW approachwas applied to remove the correlation for both tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearmanrsquos rho) Other researchers [28 48ndash51]have also used this approach to eliminate serial correlation intime series data

232 The Mann-Kendall Test The rank-based nonparamet-ric Mann-Kendall [15 16] method was applied to the long-term data in this study to detect statistically significanttrends In this test the null hypothesis (H

0) was that there

has been no trend in precipitation over time the alternatehypothesis (H

1) was that there has been a trend (increasing

or decreasing) over time The mathematical equations forcalculatingMann-Kendall Statistics 119878119881(119878) and standardizedtest statistics 119885 are as follows

119878 =

119899minus1

sum

119894=1

119899

sum

119895=119894+1

sig (119883119895minus 119883119894)

sgn (119883119895minus 119883119894) =

+1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) gt 0

0 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) = 0

minus1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) lt 0

119881 (119878) =

1

18

[119899 (119899 minus 1) (2119899 + 5) minus

119902

sum

119901=1

119905119901(119905119901minus 1) (2119905

119901+ 5)]

119885 =

119878 minus 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 gt 0

0 if 119878 = 0

119878 + 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 lt 0

(3)

In these equations119883119894and119883

119895are the time series observations

in chronological order 119899 is the length of time series 119905119901is

the number of ties for 119901th value and 119902 is the number oftied values Positive 119885 values indicate an upward trend in thehydrologic time series negative 119885 values indicate a negativetrend If |119885| gt 119885

1minus1205722 (H0) is rejected and a statistically

significant trend exists in the hydrologic time series Thecritical value of119885

1minus1205722for a 119901 value of 005 from the standard

normal table is 196

233 Spearmanrsquos rho Test Spearmanrsquos rho [17 18] test isanother rank-based nonparametric method used for trendanalysis and was applied as a comparison with the Mann-Kendall test In this test which assumes that time seriesdata are independent and identically distributed the nullhypothesis (H

0) again indicates no trend over time the

alternate hypothesis (H1) is that a trend exists and that data

increase or decrease with 119894 [24] The test statistics 119877sp andstandardized statistics 119885sp are defined as

119877sp = 1 minus

6sum119899

119894=1

(119863119894minus 119894)2

119899 (1198992

minus 1)

119885sp = 119877spradic119899 minus 2

1 minus 1198772

sp

(4)

In these equations 119863119894is the rank of 119894th observation 119868 is the

chronological order number 119899 is the total length of the timeseries data and 119885sp is Studentrsquos 119905-distribution with (119899 minus 2)degree of freedom The positive values of 119885sp represent anincreasing trend across the hydrologic time series negativevalues represent the decreasing trends The critical value of119905 at a 005 significance level of Studentrsquos 119905-distribution tableis defined as 119905

(119899minus21minus1205722)[12] If |119885sp| gt 119905

(119899minus21minus1205722) (H0) is

rejected and a significant trend exists in the hydrologic timeseries

234 Senrsquos Slope Estimator Senrsquos nonparametric method [52]was used to estimate the magnitude of trends in the timeseries data

119879119894=

119909119895minus 119909119896

119895 minus 119896

(5)

In this equation 119909119895and 119909

119896represent data values at time 119895 and

119896 respectively Consider

119876119894=

119879(119873+1)2

119873 is odd1

2

(1198791198732

+ 119879(119873+2)2

) 119873 is even(6)

A positive119876119894value represents an increasing trend a negative

119876119894value represents a decreasing trend over time


Table 2 Summary of geographic conditions and mean annual precipitation statistics for study stations

Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m) Mean (mm) STD 119862119904

119862119896

119862V

Thalozom 72∘-151015840 35∘-441015840 4200 7511 2099 minus0266 0082 0291Drosh 72∘-001015840 35∘-331015840 1465 4635 1537 1167 2441 0332Kalam 72∘-331015840 35∘-311015840 2000 9345 3170 minus0599 0323 0353Dir 71∘-531015840 35∘-121015840 1321 5482 1521 minus0545 0919 0285Madyan 72∘-321015840 35∘-091015840 1320 9623 2878 0240 1300 0307Khairabad 72∘-061015840 34∘-581015840 894 7037 1522 1410 4281 0216ToorCamp 71∘-421015840 34∘-501015840 854 5440 1592 minus0436 0841 0299Saidu Sharif 72∘-251015840 34∘-451015840 961 9901 3898 1842 6463 0398Malakand 71∘-461015840 34∘-381015840 603 6098 2526 2474 11668 0424Kulangi 71∘-591015840 34∘-351015840 688 6254 1925 0037 minus0170 0308Ambahar 71∘-121015840 34∘-331015840 694 4550 1485 minus0004 0764 0333Abazai 71∘-331015840 34∘-261015840 320 5007 1527 minus0093 0963 0312Mardan 71∘-581015840 34∘-181015840 283 6574 2974 0735 1392 0452Charsadda 71∘-431015840 34∘-071015840 276 5916 2074 0973 1031 0350Risalpur 71∘-541015840 34∘-061015840 309 6118 1768 0312 minus0098 0289

3 Results and Discussion

31 Preliminary Analysis The preliminary analysis for thisstudy included computing the mean standard deviationcoefficient of skewness coefficient of kurtosis and coefficientof variation in the annual precipitation time series foreach station Table 2 presents these statistical parametersfor the 51-year time period studied (1961ndash2011) The meanannual precipitation varied between 455mm in the southwestpart of the Swat River basin catchment area (Ambahar)and 9901mm in the southeast part (Saidu Sharif) As thetable shows the coefficient of skewness varied from minus0266to 2474 kurtosis varied between minus0170 and 11668 Fortime series data to be considered normally distributed thecoefficient of skewness and kurtosis must be equal to 0and 3 respectively Table 2 indicates therefore that the dataare positively skewed and not normally distributed Thecoefficient of variation the measure of dispersion around themean was also calculated to analyze the spatial variability ofannual precipitation for each station This coefficient variedbetween 216 (Khairabad) and 452 (Mardan)The averagevariation of the precipitation over the complete river basinwas 289

32 Long-Term Pattern on Seasonal and Annual Scale Long-term climatic patterns were assessed using standardizedseasonal and annual precipitation time series data Toreduce local fluctuations LOWESS [53ndash55] curves were fittedover time based on seasonal and annual precipitation timeseries data The LOWESS curve for winter precipitation(Figure 2(a)) showed a decreasing trend in the first decadeIn the second decade the trend was constant The minimumLOWESS curve value was observed in 1990 values thengradually rose through 2010 Overall the curve based onwinter season data suggested a decline in precipitation After1990 there was a gradual rise though small local fluctuationswere ignored The LOWESS curve for spring precipitation(Figure 2(b)) showed a gradual increase in the first three

decades After attaining its highest value in 1990 the valuedeclined over the last two decades

The LOWESS curve for summer precipitation showeda constant trend in the first decade and then started todecline up to 1978 (Figure 2(c)) For 1978ndash1992 the curvestarted to gradually increase through the remaining yearsThe LOWESS curve for autumn precipitation exhibited adecreasing trend through 1982 for the remaining time peri-ods there was an increase in precipitation For the annualprecipitation time series the LOWESS curve showed slightvariations in every decade but the overall trend was nearlyconstant throughout the time series Figure 2 shows theprecipitation patterns LOWESS curves are used to showpatterns and do not explain statistically significant trends inthe time series

33 Monthly Analysis The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spear-manrsquos (SR) rho tests were applied on a monthly scale todetect trends in the precipitation series at different stationsTable 3 shows the results and illustrates that the results ofboth tests were similar to one another Monthly trend testsshowed a mix of positive and negative trends at differentstations At Thalozom statistically significant negative andpositive trends were found in April and June respectivelySignificant positive trends were detected at Dir and Droshstations in March and August no significant trends werefound for other months The Saidu Sharif station exhibitedsignificant positive trends from January to June and fromOctober to December but had negative trends in July andAugust Significant positive trends were found at most of thestations in the months of May and June significant negativetrends were seen in July and August In other stations a mixof significantly positive and negative trends occurred for afew months of the year Figure 3 shows the spatial variationin the precipitation time series for each month in the SwatRiver basin from 1961 to 2011

The magnitude of statistically significant trends on amonthly scale was determined using Senrsquos slope estimator


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

Original dataLOWESS line

minus3

minus2

minus1

(a)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(b)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(c)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(d)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus3

minus2

minus1

(e)

Figure 2 Standardized precipitation and LOWESS trend curves at Swat River basin (a) winter (b) spring (c) summer (d) autumn and (e)annual


Table3MKandSR

tests

results

forp

recipitatio

nin

mon

thlytim

eseries

Station

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Thalozom

MK

minus063

minus10

9minus042

minus219lowast

minus033

272lowast

minus080

minus094

minus029

010

146

030

SRminus044

minus10

1minus039

minus215lowast

minus040

293lowast

minus079

minus10

3minus013

028

141

013

Drosh

MK

minus008

minus024

016

minus067

063

151

minus19

4minus316lowast

minus063

040

103

001

SRminus014

minus001

008

minus079

067

173

minus18

7minus336lowast

minus050

039

101

017

Kalam

MK

minus037

minus067

033

minus221lowast

minus063

219lowast

minus115

minus10

4minus054

014

120

017

SRminus023

minus052

023

minus213lowast

minus064

229lowast

minus113

minus10

7minus043

014

091

minus066

Dir

MK

000

minus063

minus248lowast

minus021

minus079

112

minus015

003

174

minus13

1minus034

minus089

SRminus016

minus062

minus280lowast

minus018

minus10

010

7minus001

minus002

203lowast

minus16

3minus049

minus10

1

Madyan

MK

089

075

110

minus083

086

353lowast

minus312lowast

minus338lowast

minus023

190

272lowast

134

SR086

070

113

minus067

085

426lowast

minus324lowast

minus398lowast

minus016

200

301lowast

132

Khaira

bad

MK

091

minus068

minus021

minus080

201lowast

385lowast

minus312lowast

minus348lowast

minus019

268lowast

292lowast

112

SR082

minus072

minus028

minus079

204lowast

446lowast

minus334lowast

minus460lowast

minus017

308lowast

325lowast

097

ToorCa

mp

MK

192

093

045

minus070

minus044

minus086

minus291lowast

minus296lowast

minus227lowast

minus201lowast

094

028

SR17

8085

025

minus082

minus047

minus091

minus317lowast

minus361lowast

minus279lowast

minus233lowast

104

020

SaiduSh

arif

MK

274lowast

246lowast

222lowast

182

285lowast

327lowast

minus334lowast

minus309lowast

003

319lowast

357lowast

210lowast

SR302lowast

262lowast

261lowast

205lowast

324lowast

383lowast

minus360lowast

minus387lowast

020

364lowast

405lowast

217lowast

Malakand

MK

105

minus17

2minus115

010

228lowast

322lowast

minus318lowast

minus293lowast

016

350lowast

273lowast

149

SR099

minus202lowast

minus13

2022

254lowast

302lowast

minus380lowast

minus382lowast

023

397lowast

223lowast

091

Kulang

iMK

070

minus099

minus294lowast

minus14

4minus062

036

000

174

291lowast

minus16

4minus003

minus204lowast

SR059

minus10

4minus315lowast

minus14

1minus081

024

008

165

336lowast

minus18

5minus031

minus231lowast

Ambahar

MK

031

minus066

minus284lowast

minus10

5minus115

060

018

060

304lowast

minus13

6minus021

minus18

0SR

038

minus070

minus282lowast

minus111

minus118

058

019

034

356lowast

minus15

1minus029

minus201lowast

Abazai

MK

233lowast

minus025

minus091

137

292lowast

449lowast

minus262lowast

minus10

710

2331lowast

392lowast

261lowast

SR222lowast

minus029

minus090

162

289lowast

435lowast

minus307lowast

minus10

913

7385lowast

366lowast

272lowast

Mardan

MK

243lowast

134

041

001

105

070

014

minus016

100

minus058

minus13

1minus13

7SR

253lowast

134

050

011

110

072

025

minus020

088

minus051

minus115

minus115

Charsadd

aMK

232lowast

109

032

minus012

015

034

014

minus014

056

minus10

4minus217lowast

minus15

9SR

237lowast

109

026

minus024

032

044

022

minus033

043

minus097

minus204lowast

minus13

1

Risalpur

MK

191

128

006

minus027

minus033

minus037

minus006

minus063

minus026

minus14

6minus18

7minus217lowast

SR213lowast

113

006

minus036

minus017

minus025

minus005

minus072

minus026

minus15

0minus211lowast

minus216lowast

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance

leveloftwo-tailedtest


Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)

Significant increasing trendSignificant decreasing trend

No trend

Figure 3 Location of sites with increasing decreasing and no trends at 5 significance level for the monthly precipitation time series

The results show that trends at Saidu Sharif Madyanand Kalam were more rapid (eg sharper increases anddecreases) compared to other stations The Saidu Sharifstation had the maximum negative decline in monthly pre-cipitation (183mmmonth) as well as the maximum positiveincrease (143mmmonth) during the months of July andMarch respectively Figure 4 shows the trends in maximummonthly precipitation variation at the Saidu Sharif station

34 Seasonal and Annual Analysis The MK and SR testswere also used to identify trends in seasonal and annualprecipitation between 1961 and 2011 Table 4 shows the resultsSimilar to the monthly analysis results from both statisticaltests MK and SR were consistent with one another A mixof negative and positive trends was seen at different stationsThalozom Kalam and Dir stations which had shown trends

with the monthly time scale did not exhibit statisticallysignificant trends for the seasonal and annual precipitationtime series At Madyan Khairabad and Malakand stationsthere were significant negative trends in the summer andpositive trends in the autumn Significant negative trendswere observed in the spring season only at ToorCampKulangi and Ambahar stations For the annual precipitationseries significant positive trends were detected only at SaiduSharif Mardan and Charsadda stations At other stationssignificant positive trends were seen for winter and autumnseasons and for the annual precipitation series howevernegative trends were detected in spring and summer seasonsFigure 5 presents the spatial distribution of seasonal andannual precipitation trends

The Saidu Sharif station showed the maximum positivetrend in annual precipitation series (748mmyear) across


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year

Saidu Sharif station(March)

(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year

Saidu Sharif station(July)

(b)

Figure 4 Variations of monthly precipitation time series in stations with most significant trends during 1961ndash2011

Table 4 MK and SR tests results for precipitation in seasonal and annual time series

Station Test Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual

Thalozom MK minus120 minus162 minus120 148 minus149SR minus114 minus152 minus110 135 minus145

Drosh MK 042 minus078 minus196 097 minus044SR 049 minus074 minus209lowast 127 minus048

Kalam MK minus062 minus139 minus171 160 minus110SR minus037 minus121 minus158 157 minus087

Dir MK minus028 minus148 minus047 minus076 minus138SR minus062 minus150 minus058 minus097 minus146

Madyan MK 120 003 minus258lowast 365lowast 042SR 137 033 minus244lowast 421lowast 078

Khairabad MK 026 minus065 minus302lowast 325lowast minus073SR 021 minus076 minus353lowast 364lowast minus072

ToorCamp MK minus063 minus203lowast 024 minus073 minus044SR minus096 minus217lowast 023 minus092 minus159

Saidu Sharif MK 346lowast 239lowast minus156 069 328lowast

SR 404lowast 280lowast minus156 148 278lowast

Malakand MK minus070 minus110 minus270lowast 337lowast minus119SR minus068 minus115 minus319lowast 373lowast minus140

Kulangi MK minus122 minus261lowast 031 minus099 minus144SR minus156 minus284lowast 037 minus127 minus172

Ambahar MK minus066 minus206lowast minus063 minus099 minus157SR minus076 minus224lowast minus058 minus110 minus141

Abazai MK 179 minus015 minus099 429lowast 096SR 217lowast 007 minus072 604lowast 122

Mardan MK 281lowast 145 095 minus102 259lowast

SR 310lowast 134 098 minus085 280lowast

Charsadda MK 266lowast 097 073 minus194 214lowast


Risalpur MK 243lowast 044 minus006 minus154 198SR 254lowast 040 minus005 minus190 195

lowastSignificant trend at 5 significance level of two-tailed test


N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer

Figure 5 Location of sites with increasing decreasing and no trends at 5 significance level for the seasonal and annual precipitation timeseries

study stations from 1961 to 2011 theThalozom station showeda negative trend with a decreasing rate of 370mmyearFigure 6 displays the results of the magnitude of variationin the annual precipitation for the Saidu Sharif MardanCharsadda andThalozom stations

35 Trend Analysis over Entire River Basin The effect ofclimate change on precipitation was also analyzed for theentire Swat River basin by applying the MK and SR testson monthly seasonal and annual scale As Figure 1 showedthe entire Swat River catchment (A) is divided into foursubbasins upper subbasin (A1) Panjkora subbasin (A2)Ambahar subbasin (A3) and Lower subbasin (A4) Table 5presents trends in monthly precipitation across the subbasinsand for the full basin The table shows significant positivetrends in the months of June and November for the uppersubbasin (A1) and the entire Swat River basin (A) negativetrends were seen in these locations in July and August Inthe Panjkora subbasin (A2) statistically significant positivetrends were identified over time in June a negative trendwas seen from July to September The maximum number ofsignificant cases (8) was observed in data from the Ambaharsubbasin (A3)The Lower subbasin (A4) showed a significantpositive trend only during January no significant trendsin other months were identified As a simpler summarysignificant negative trends in precipitation over time were

seen from July to September positive trends over time wereseen in January May June and October to December indifferent Swat River subbasins

To detect precipitation trends in each subbasin and entireSwat River basin the MK and SR tests were again appliedto seasonal and annual precipitation data for the 51-yearstudy period (1961ndash2011) As Table 6 shows both testmethodsshowed similar results The upper subbasin (A1) experiencedstatistically significant negative trends in the summer andpositive trends in the autumn The Panjkora subbasin (A2)and Lower subbasin (A4) showed significant negative trendsin the summer and positive trends in the winter Significantpositive trends were found across the subbasins in winterand autumn seasons however there was a negative trendin summer at Ambahar subbasin (A3) and across the entireSwat River basin (A) For the annual and spring precipitationtime series there were no statistically significant trendsSignificant positive trendswere seen inwinter and autumn insummer negative trends were seen across different subbasinsand the full Swat River basin

The Lower subbasin exhibited the maximum positivetrend over time (218mmyear) in the weighted annualprecipitation time series the Panjkora subbasin showed anegative trend with a decreasing rate of participation at090mmyear The entire Swat River basin showed a positivetrend in precipitation (048mmyear) as shown in Table 6


Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Saidu Sharif station

(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)

Figure 6 Variations of annual precipitation time series in stations with significant trends during 1961ndash2011

36 Comparison of Results Results from both statistical testsMK and SR were consistent with each otherThe percentagesof statistically significant cases to total tested cases for theMK and SR tests were 32 and 30 respectively showingagreement across methods This consistency in statisticalperformance was also found in other studies [24 28]

4 Discussion

This study investigated variability in monthly seasonal andannual precipitation at 15 stations in the Swat River basinover a 51-year study period (1961ndash2011) Precipitation trendswere also analyzed for each subbasin and entire Swat Riverbasin The mean annual precipitation at different stationsshowed considerable variation with a standard deviationof 1768mm from the mean annual rainfall of 694mmThe Saidu Sharif Mardan and Charsadda stations showedsignificant positive trends (increased precipitation over time)at 5 significance level in the annual precipitation series

The maximum number of significant changes in monthlyprecipitation over time was detected at Saidu Sharif Abazaiand Khairabad stations Saidu Sharif station showed themaximum increasing slope (indicating sharpest change overtime) of 748mmyear among the selected stations in the SwatRiver basin

These study results follow the same statistical trendsreported by Hartmann and Andresky [35] for northwestparts of Pakistan Findings were consistent with results fromDimri [56] Ghaffar and Javid [57] and Rasul [58] whereinthey found statistically significant increasing trends in winterprecipitation for northwest areas of Pakistan The resultsof this analysis also support finding of Hanif et al [37]wherein they found significant variations in summer seasonprecipitation These variations in precipitation trends maylead Pakistan towards more water related disasters suchas droughts and floods in the near future Basistha et al[59] proposed possible causes of the changing precipitationtrends such as global climate shifts [60] dwindling global


Table 6 MK and SR results for seasonal and annual precipitation time series in entire basin and subbasin of Swat River

Subbasin Change (mmyear) Test Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual

A1 minus073 MK 055 minus024 minus242lowast 305lowast minus034SR 057 001 minus227lowast 347lowast 118

A2 minus090 MK 128 minus023 minus385lowast 158 minus081SR 118 minus035 minus444lowast 164 minus090

A3 030 MK 266lowast 016 minus265lowast 375lowast 024SR 295lowast 027 minus309lowast 460lowast 040

A4 218 MK 242lowast 060 minus021 024 166SR 272lowast 054 minus037 043 173

A 048 MK 214lowast minus011 minus297lowast 307lowast 042SR 225lowast minus014 minus340lowast 336lowast 038


monsoon circulation [61] decline in forest cover [62 63] landuse changes and practices (eg irrigated agriculture) [64 65]and increasing aerosols from anthropogenic activities [66]

5 Conclusions

This paper analyzed trends in monthly seasonal and annualprecipitation in the Swat River basin over the 51-year studyperiod (1961ndash2011) A mix of positive and negative trendswas observed at various stations and subbasins The monthsof June November July and August showed the maximumnumber of significant cases at various stations in monthlyprecipitation The trends were positive in May and June andwere negative in July and August This indicates a shift inprecipitation series on monthly scale Significant positivetrends were detected in winter and autumn and annuallynegative trends were seen in spring and summer seasonsSaidu Sharif Mardan and Charsadda stations exhibitedsignificant positive trends in annual precipitation at a 95confidence level the remaining stations did not experiencea statistically significant trend

For the entire Swat River basin no significant trendswere detected in any subbasin for the annual precipitationseries Seasonally winter and autumn experienced significantpositive trends and summer experienced negative trends indifferent subbasins in the Swat River basin Most statisticallysignificant trend cases under different scenarios were positive(61)The results obtainedwith theMann-Kendall (MK) andSpearmanrsquos rho tests showed agreement in their assessmentsof monthly seasonal and annual precipitation trends Thevariability of negative and positive trends at various stationspoints to the need for more detailed studies on the climatechange of this region

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interestsregarding the publication of this paper

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Pakistan Meteorological Department(PMD) Water and Power Development Authority

(WAPDA) Pakistan and Snowy Mountains EngineeringCorporation (SMEC) for providing cost-free data for thisstudy

References

[1] M D Rahman and M Begum ldquoApplication of non parametrictest for trend detection of rainfall in the largest Island ofBangladeshrdquo ARPN Journal of Earth Sciences vol 2 no 2 pp40ndash44 2013

[2] IPCCThePhysical Science Basis Contribution ofWorkingGroupI to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change Cambridge University Press CambridgeUK 2007

[3] A B Farooq and A H Khan ldquoClimate change perspectivein Pakistanrdquo in Proceedings of the Capacity Building APNWorkshop on Global Change Research pp 39ndash46 IslamabadPakistan 2004

[4] Z Z Hu S Yang and R Wu ldquoLong-term climate variationsin China and global warming signalsrdquo Journal of GeophysicalResearch vol 108 no D19 2003

[5] P Zhai and X Pan ldquoTrends in temperature extremes during1951ndash1999 in Chinardquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 30 no17 p 1913 2003

[6] D Duhan and A Pandey ldquoStatistical analysis of long termspatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901ndash2002at Madhya Pradesh Indiardquo Atmospheric Research vol 122 pp136ndash149 2013

[7] B J Peterson RM Holmes JWMcClelland et al ldquoIncreasingriver discharge to the Arctic oceanrdquo Science vol 298 no 5601pp 2171ndash2173 2002

[8] N I Savelieva I P Semiletov L N Vasilevskaya and S PPugach ldquoA climate shift in seasonal values of meteorologicaland hydrological parameters for Northeastern Asiardquo Progress inOceanography vol 47 no 2ndash4 pp 279ndash297 2000

[9] Y F Shi Y P Shen and R J Hu ldquoPreliminary study on signalimpact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry towarm-humid in Northwest Chinardquo Journal of Glaciology andGeocryology vol 24 pp 219ndash226 2002 (Chinese)

[10] S Farhana and M M Rahman ldquoCharacterizing rainfall trendin Bangladesh by temporal statistics analysisrdquo in Proceedings ofthe 4th Annual Paper Meet and 1st Civil Engineering CongressDhaka Bangladesh 2011

[11] R H Rimi S H Rahman S Karmakar and S G HussainldquoTrend analysis of climate change and investigation on its


probable impacts on rice production at Satkhira BangladeshrdquoPakistan Journal of Meteorology vol 6 no 11 pp 37ndash50 2014

[12] E R Dahmen and M J Hall Screening of Hydrological DataTests for Stationarity and Relative Consistency Publication 49ILRI Wageningen The Netherlands 1990

[13] Q Zhang C Liu C-Y Xu Y Xu and T Jiang ldquoObserved trendsof annual maximumwater level and streamflow during past 130years in the Yangtze River basin Chinardquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 324 no 1-4 pp 255ndash265 2006

[14] H Chen S Guo C-Y Xu and V P Singh ldquoHistorical tem-poral trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff responseto climate variability and their relevance in water resourcemanagement in the Hanjiang basinrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol344 no 3-4 pp 171ndash184 2007

[15] H BMann ldquoNonparametric tests against trendrdquo Econometricavol 13 pp 245ndash259 1945

[16] M G Kendall Rank CorrelationMethods Griffin London UK1975

[17] E L Lehmann Nonparametrics Statistical Methods Based onRanks Holden-Day San Francisco Calif USA 1975

[18] R Sneyers ldquoOn the statistical analysis of series of observationsrdquoTechnical Note 143 WMO no 415 World MeteorologicalOrganization 1990

[19] A Longobardi and P Villani ldquoTrend analysis of annual andseasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean areardquo Inter-national Journal of Climatology vol 30 no 10 pp 1538ndash15462010

[20] Z YanmingW Jun andW Xinhua ldquoStudy on the change trendof precipitation and temperature in Kunming city based onMann-Kendall analysisrdquo in Future Computer CommunicationControl and Automation vol 119 of Advances in Intelligent andSoft Computing pp 505ndash513 Springer Berlin Germany 2011

[21] X L Yang L R Xu K K Liu C H Li J Hu and X H XialdquoTrend in temperature and precipitation in the ZhangweinanRiver Basin during the last 53 yearsrdquo Procedia EnvironmentalSciences vol 13 pp 1966ndash1974 1966

[22] Z F Yang Y Yan and Q Liu ldquoThe relationship of streamflow-precipitation-temperature in the Yellow River Basin of Chinaduring 1961ndash2000rdquo Procedia Environmental Sciences vol 13 pp2336ndash2345 2012

[23] Q-X Wang X-H Fan Z-D Qin and M-B Wang ldquoChangetrends of temperature and precipitation in the Loess PlateauRegion of China 1961ndash2010rdquo Global and Planetary Change vol92-93 pp 138ndash147 2012

[24] S Yue P Pilon and G Cavadias ldquoPower of the Mann-Kendalland Spearmanrsquos rho tests for detecting monotonic trends inhydrological seriesrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 259 no 1ndash4 pp254ndash271 2002

[25] E Kahya and S Kalaycı ldquoTrend analysis of streamflow inTurkeyrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 289 pp 128ndash144 2004

[26] Z L Li Z X Xu J Y Li and Z J Li ldquoShift trend and stepchanges for runoff time series in the Shiyang River BasinNorthwest Chinardquo Hydrological Processes vol 22 no 23 pp4639ndash4646 2008

[27] C Yaning X Changchun H Xingming et al ldquoFifty-yearclimate change and its effect on annual runoff in the TarimRiverBasin Chinardquo Quaternary International vol 208 no 1-2 pp53ndash61 2009

[28] M Shadmani SMarofi andMRoknian ldquoTrend analysis in ref-erence evapotranspiration usingMann-Kendall and SpearmanrsquosRho tests in arid regions of IranrdquoWater Resources Managementvol 26 no 1 pp 211ndash224 2012

[29] H Rehman and A Kamal ldquoIndus Basin River system-floodingand flood mitigationrdquo 2005 httparchiveriversymposiumcom2005indexphpelement=38

[30] Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) National PlanStrengthening National Capacities for Multi-hazard EarlyWarn-ing amp Response System 2006

[31] National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) 2007National Disaster Risk Management Framework Governmentof Pakistan httpwwwndmagovpknew

[32] N H Hashimi Q T M Siddiqui A R Ghumman M AKamal and H R Mughal ldquoA critical analysis of 2010 floods inPakistanrdquo African Journal of Agricultural Research vol 7 no 7pp 1054ndash1067 2012

[33] FFC ldquoFederal Flood Commission of Pakistanrdquo Annual FloodReport-2010 2011 httpwwwffcgovpkdownloadfloodarc-hieveAnnualreport2010pdf

[34] N Gronewold and Climatewire ldquoIs the Flooding in Pakistan aClimate Change Disasterrdquo WMN 2010 httpwwwscientific-americancomarticleis-the-flooding-in-pakist

[35] H Hartmann and L Andresky ldquoFlooding in the Indus Riverbasinmdasha spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation recordsrdquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 107 pp 25ndash35 2013

[36] S Salma S Rehman andM A Shah ldquoRainfall trends in differ-ent climate zones of Pakistanrdquo Pakistan Journal of Meteorologyvol 9 no 17 pp 37ndash47 2012

[37] M Hanif A H Khan and S Adnan ldquoLatitudinal precipitationcharacteristics and trends in Pakistanrdquo Journal ofHydrology vol492 pp 266ndash272 2013

[38] A Imran Q Zaman and M Afzal ldquoTemporal trends in thepeak monsoonal precipitation events over Northeast PakistanrdquoPakistan Journal of Meteorology vol 10 no 19 pp 19ndash30 2013

[39] S B Cheema and M Hanif ldquoSeasonal precipitation variationover Punjab provincerdquo Pakistan Journal of Meteorology vol 10no 19 pp 61ndash82 2013

[40] H Hartmann and H Buchanan ldquoTrends in extreme precipita-tion events in the indus River Basin and flooding in PakistanrdquoAtmosphere-Ocean vol 52 no 1 pp 77ndash91 2014

[41] ldquoProvincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA 2012)Monsoon Contingency Plan-Khyber-Pakhtunkhwardquo 2012httpwwwndmagovpkDocumentsContingency Plan2012CP KPpdf

[42] Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation Munda DamConstruction Project Detailed Design Report SMEC LahorePakistan 2014

[43] H Alexandersson ldquoA homogeneity test applied to precipitationdatardquo Journal of Climatology vol 6 no 6 pp 661ndash675 1986

[44] HAlexandersson andAMoberg ldquoHomogenization of Swedishtemperature data Part I homogeneity test for linear trendsrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 17 no 1 pp 25ndash341997

[45] T A Buishand ldquoSome methods for testing the homogeneity ofrainfall recordsrdquo Journal of Hydrology vol 58 no 1-2 pp 11ndash271982

[46] M N Khaliq and T B M J Ouarda ldquoOn the critical values ofthe standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT)rdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 27 no 5 pp 681ndash687 2007

[47] K H Hamed and A Ramachandra Rao ldquoA modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated datardquo Journal of Hydrologyvol 204 no 1ndash4 pp 182ndash196 1998

[48] B Onoz and M Bayazit ldquoBlock bootstrap for Mann-Kendalltrend test of serially dependent datardquoHydrological Processes vol26 no 23 pp 3552ndash3560 2012


[49] M Yaseen H A Bhatti T Rientjes G Nabi and M LatifldquoTemporal and spatial variations in summer flows of upperIndus Basin Pakistanrdquo inProceedings of the 72ndAnnual Sessionof Pakistan Engineering Congress Paper no 747 pp 315ndash3342013

[50] G C Blain ldquoThe Mann-Kendall test the need to consider theinteraction between serial correlation and trendrdquo AgriculturalEngineering vol 35 no 4 2013

[51] M Yaseen T Rientjes G Nabi H ur-Rehman and M LatifldquoAssessment of recent temperature trends inManglawatershedrdquoJournal of Himalayan Earth Sciences vol 47 no 1 pp 107ndash1212014

[52] P K Sen ldquoEstimates of the regression coefficient based onKendallrsquos taurdquo Journal of the American Statistical Associationvol 63 no 324 pp 1379ndash1389 1968

[53] W S Cleveland ldquoRobust locally weighted regression andsmoothing scatterplotsrdquoThe Journal of the American StatisticalAssociation vol 74 no 368 pp 829ndash836 1979

[54] W S Cleveland ldquoGraphs in scientific publicationsrdquoThe Ameri-can Statistician vol 38 no 4 pp 261ndash269 1984

[55] D R Helsel and R M Hirsch ldquoStatistical methods in waterresourcesrdquo inTechniques ofWater Resources Investigations Book4 chapter A3 p 522 US Geological Survey 2002

[56] A P Dimri ldquoSurface and upper air fields during extreme winterprecipitation over the western Himalayasrdquo Pure and AppliedGeophysics vol 163 no 8 pp 1679ndash1698 2006

[57] A Ghaffar and M Javid ldquoImpact of global warming onmonsoon variability in Pakistanrdquo The Journal of Animal andPlant Sciences vol 21 no 1 pp 107ndash110 2011

[58] G Rasul ldquoClimate Data and Modelling Analysis of the IndusRegionrdquo Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) 2012httpwwfpakorgccappdfClimate Data Modelling20An-alysis20of20the20Indus20Ecoregionpdf

[59] A Basistha D S Arya and N K Goel ldquoAnalysis of historicalchanges in rainfall in the Indian Himalayasrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 29 no 4 pp 555ndash572 2009

[60] P G Baines ldquoThe late 1960s global climate shift and its influenceon the Southern Hemisphererdquo in Proceedings of 8 ICSHMO pp1477ndash1482 INPE Foz do Iguacu Brazil 2006

[61] K Duan and T Yao ldquoMonsoon variability in the Himalayasunder the condition of global warmingrdquo Journal of the Mete-orological Society of Japan vol 81 no 2 pp 251ndash257 2003

[62] U S Nair R O Lawton R M Welch and R A Pielke SrldquoImpact of land use on Costa Rican tropical montane cloudforests sensitivity of cumulus cloud field characteristics tolowland deforestationrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research D vol108 no 7 pp 4206ndash4219 2003

[63] R Avissar and D Werth ldquoGlobal hydroclimatological tele-connections resulting from tropical deforestationrdquo Journal ofHydrometeorology vol 6 no 2 pp 134ndash145 2005

[64] R A Pielke Sr J Adegoke A Beltran-Przekurat et al ldquoAnoverview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts onrainfallrdquo Tellus B Chemical and Physical Meteorology vol 59no 3 pp 587ndash601 2007

[65] N Ramankutty C Delire and P Snyder ldquoFeedbacks betweenagriculture and climate an illustration of the potential unin-tended consequences of human land use activitiesrdquo Global andPlanetary Change vol 54 no 1-2 pp 79ndash93 2006

[66] V Ramanathan C Chung D Kim et al ldquoAtmospheric brownclouds impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cyclerdquoProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the UnitedStates of America vol 102 no 15 pp 5326ndash5333 2005

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of


EarthquakesJournal of


Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of


Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering


GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of


OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in


MineralogyInternational Journal of


MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014


Geological ResearchJournal of


Geology Advances in


Natural disasters including avalanches cyclones andstorms droughts and floods and cloudburst flash floods(CBFF) pose serious risks to Pakistani society [29ndash31]Pakistan has faced one major flood approximately every 3years creating challenges for economic development [32]In 2010 Pakistan faced the worst flood event in its history[33] Experts from the World Climate Research ProgrammeandWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) have statedthat climate change is one of the main reasons for thisunprecedented sequence of weather events A UN scientificbody concluded that hot extremes heat waves and heavyprecipitation events will likely continue to become morefrequent in Pakistan the same body warns that floodsmay become more frequent and intense in the future [2]WMO has noted that the 2010 floods were consistent withthe sequence predicted by climate experts further statingthat current events match projections of more frequent andintense weather events due to global warming [34]

Floods in Pakistan are generally caused by concentratedheavy precipitation in watersheds sometimes augmented bysnowmelt flows causing river floods during the monsoonseason Hartmann and Andresky [35] reported that the pre-cipitation regimes in northwest areas of Pakistan are mainlycontrolled by monsoon rains from July to September theyhave become more intense in recent years Salma et al [36]analyzed Pakistan rainfall trends using analysis of variance(ANOVA) from 1976 to 2005 and concluded that while theoverall rainfall trends have declined rainfall consequencessuch as droughts and super floods have badly affected humansettlements water management and agriculture sectorsHanif et al [37] found significant precipitation changes innorthern parts of Pakistan during the summer and monsoon(July and August) seasons Significant increasing trends inprecipitation over time have been detected in northeastareas of Pakistan during the monsoon season [38] Cheemaand Hanif [39] detected increasing rainfall trends in thePunjab province of Pakistan Significant increasing trendswere detected in the northwest (Hindu Kush and SulaimanMountains) and in the east (Himalayas) areas of the IndusRiver basin insignificant negative trends were found in thenortheast (Karakorum and Transhimalaya) and lowland ofthe upper Indus River basin [35 40]

During the last week of July 2010 unprecedented rains fellin Swat andKabul river catchment areas causing catastrophicfloods in excess of 400000 cusecs exceeding the previousrecord flood set in 1929 (250000 cusecs) and impacting24 districts of the KPK province of Pakistan [32] Due tochanging weather patterns Pakistanrsquos KPK province and theSwat River area have been exposed to risks from frequentfloods and droughts in recent years [31 41] Most past studieshowever have focused on climatic trend analyses in theupper Indus River basin No precipitation trend studies havefocused on the Swat River basin which has faced frequentfloods and droughts over the years This study fills thisresearch gap

This study investigated trends and variations in precip-itation over time at the Swat River basin in Pakistan usingMann-Kendall and Spearmanrsquos rho tests This study pro-vides a broad overview of precipitation statistics including

seasonal and interannual variability over the SwatRiver basinand may help managers and agricultural planners The studyconsiders precipitation data from 51 years (1961ndash2011) at 15stations

2 Methodology

21 Study Area This study investigates the variability inprecipitation time series for a 51-year period (1961ndash2011) inthe Swat River basin in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK)province of PakistanThe Swat River originates from the highmountains of Swat Kohistan where the mean elevation is4500m in the northwest parts of the country The river flowsthrough the Kalam valley and the Swat district then skirtsthe Lower Dir district flows through Malakand and Mardandistricts and outflows into the Kabul River

The Swat River is important for the future economicdevelopment of Pakistan There are three hydropower plantswith a combined operational capacity of 123MWon the SwatRiver At the time of this writing another hydroelectric powergeneration plant (Munda Dam) with a projected capacityof 740MW is being constructed on the Swat River Thisdam along with the hydropower generation will irrigate15100 acres of land They will also provide flood protectionto theCharsadda andNowshera districts whichwere severelyaffected by flooding in 2010

The riverrsquos catchment area is generally mountainous withelevations ranging from approximately 360m to 4500mfrom south to north Vegetation occurs between 1800mand 3400m and glaciers are visible above 4000m TheSwat River basin catchment lies between a latitude of 34∘001015840north to 35∘561015840 north and longitude 70∘591015840 east to 72∘471015840east

22 Data andMethods The total Swat River basin catchmentarea is 16750 km2 with 15 meteorological stations shown inFigure 1 The area is further divided into four subregionsupper Swat River basin (A1) Panjkora River basin (A2)Ambahar River basin (A3) and Lower Swat River basin(A4) The catchment areas for these basins are 5968 57331485 and 3564 km2 respectively To detectmonotonic trendsmonthly precipitation values were added to generate theannual and seasonal precipitation Mean precipitation valuesat corresponding stations were considered to determinesubbasin precipitation (A1 A2 A3 and A4) and precipitationacross the entire Swat River basin (A) This procedure wasadopted from Duhan and Pandey [6]

Rain gauge stations within the Swat River catchment areaare operated by PakistanMeteorological Department (PMD)Irrigation Department of KPK province (ID) and SurfaceWater Hydrology Project (SWHP) Snowy Mountains Engi-neering Corporation (SMEC) Pakistan under the MundaDam construction project collected the precipitation timeseries data from these agencies and processed it to ensurehomogeneity and quality control [42]

Mann-Kendall and Spearmanrsquos rho tests are nonpara-metric therefore data outliers do not affect the results Thehomogeneity of the precipitation time series was assessed


34∘-00998400

34∘-15998400

34∘-30998400

34∘-45998400

35∘-00998400

35∘-15998400

35∘-30998400

35∘-45998400

36∘-00998400

34∘-00998400

34∘-15998400

34∘-30998400

34∘-45998400

35∘-00998400

35∘-15998400

35∘-30998400

35∘-45998400

36∘-00998400

70∘-4

5998400

71∘-0

0998400

71∘-1

5998400

71∘-3

0998400

71∘-4

5998400

72∘-0

0998400

72∘-1

5998400

72∘-3

0998400

72∘-4

5998400

73∘-0

0998400

70∘-4

5998400

71∘-0

0998400

71∘-1

5998400

71∘-3

0998400

71∘-4

5998400

72∘-0

0998400

72∘-1

5998400

72∘-3

0998400

72∘-4

5998400

73∘-0

0998400

Afghan

istan

A3

A3

A2

A2

A1

A1

A4

A4

N

Ambahar

Abazai

ToorCamp

Dir

Drosh Kalam

Thalozom

Madyan

Khairabad

Saidu Sharif

Malakand

Mardan

RisalpurCharsadda

Kulangi

Upper Swat subbasin

Panjkora subbasin

Ambahar subbasin

Lower Swat subbasin







1199031=

sum119899minus1

119894=1

(119883119894minus 119883) (119883

119894+1minus 119883)

sum119899

119894=1

(119883119894minus 119883)

2

(1)



1199031(95) =


119899 minus 1

(2)




119876radic119899 119877radic119899






0) was that there




119878 =

119899minus1

sum

119894=1

119899

sum

119895=119894+1

sig (119883119895minus 119883119894)

sgn (119883119895minus 119883119894) =

+1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) gt 0

0 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) = 0

minus1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) lt 0

119881 (119878) =

1

18

[119899 (119899 minus 1) (2119899 + 5) minus

119902

sum

119901=1

119905119901(119905119901minus 1) (2119905

119901+ 5)]

119885 =

119878 minus 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 gt 0

0 if 119878 = 0

119878 + 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 lt 0

(3)








normal table is 196





119877sp = 1 minus

6sum119899

119894=1

(119863119894minus 119894)2

119899 (1198992

minus 1)

119885sp = 119877spradic119899 minus 2

1 minus 1198772

sp

(4)




(119899minus21minus1205722) (H0) is



119879119894=

119909119895minus 119909119896

119895 minus 119896

(5)




119876119894=

119879(119873+1)2

119873 is odd1

2

(1198791198732

+ 119879(119873+2)2

) 119873 is even(6)






119862119896

119862V










0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year


minus3

minus2

minus1

(a)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(b)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(c)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(d)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus3

minus2

minus1

(e)



Table3MKandSR

tests

results

forp

recipitatio

nin

mon

thlytim

eseries

Station

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Thalozom

MK

minus063

minus10

9minus042

minus219lowast

minus033

272lowast

minus080

minus094

minus029

010

146

030

SRminus044

minus10

1minus039

minus215lowast

minus040

293lowast

minus079

minus10

3minus013

028

141

013

Drosh

MK

minus008

minus024

016

minus067

063

151

minus19

4minus316lowast

minus063

040

103

001

SRminus014

minus001

008

minus079

067

173

minus18

7minus336lowast

minus050

039

101

017

Kalam

MK

minus037

minus067

033

minus221lowast

minus063

219lowast

minus115

minus10

4minus054

014

120

017

SRminus023

minus052

023

minus213lowast

minus064

229lowast

minus113

minus10

7minus043

014

091

minus066

Dir

MK

000

minus063

minus248lowast

minus021

minus079

112

minus015

003

174

minus13

1minus034

minus089

SRminus016

minus062

minus280lowast

minus018

minus10

010

7minus001

minus002

203lowast

minus16

3minus049

minus10

1

Madyan

MK

089

075

110

minus083

086

353lowast

minus312lowast

minus338lowast

minus023

190

272lowast

134

SR086

070

113

minus067

085

426lowast

minus324lowast

minus398lowast

minus016

200

301lowast

132

Khaira

bad

MK

091

minus068

minus021

minus080

201lowast

385lowast

minus312lowast

minus348lowast

minus019

268lowast

292lowast

112

SR082

minus072

minus028

minus079

204lowast

446lowast

minus334lowast

minus460lowast

minus017

308lowast

325lowast

097

ToorCa

mp

MK

192

093

045

minus070

minus044

minus086

minus291lowast

minus296lowast

minus227lowast

minus201lowast

094

028

SR17

8085

025

minus082

minus047

minus091

minus317lowast

minus361lowast

minus279lowast

minus233lowast

104

020

SaiduSh

arif

MK

274lowast

246lowast

222lowast

182

285lowast

327lowast

minus334lowast

minus309lowast

003

319lowast

357lowast

210lowast

SR302lowast

262lowast

261lowast

205lowast

324lowast

383lowast

minus360lowast

minus387lowast

020

364lowast

405lowast

217lowast

Malakand

MK

105

minus17

2minus115

010

228lowast

322lowast

minus318lowast

minus293lowast

016

350lowast

273lowast

149

SR099

minus202lowast

minus13

2022

254lowast

302lowast

minus380lowast

minus382lowast

023

397lowast

223lowast

091

Kulang

iMK

070

minus099

minus294lowast

minus14

4minus062

036

000

174

291lowast

minus16

4minus003

minus204lowast

SR059

minus10

4minus315lowast

minus14

1minus081

024

008

165

336lowast

minus18

5minus031

minus231lowast

Ambahar

MK

031

minus066

minus284lowast

minus10

5minus115

060

018

060

304lowast

minus13

6minus021

minus18

0SR

038

minus070

minus282lowast

minus111

minus118

058

019

034

356lowast

minus15

1minus029

minus201lowast

Abazai

MK

233lowast

minus025

minus091

137

292lowast

449lowast

minus262lowast

minus10

710

2331lowast

392lowast

261lowast

SR222lowast

minus029

minus090

162

289lowast

435lowast

minus307lowast

minus10

913

7385lowast

366lowast

272lowast

Mardan

MK

243lowast

134

041

001

105

070

014

minus016

100

minus058

minus13

1minus13

7SR

253lowast

134

050

011

110

072

025

minus020

088

minus051

minus115

minus115

Charsadd

aMK

232lowast

109

032

minus012

015

034

014

minus014

056

minus10

4minus217lowast

minus15

9SR

237lowast

109

026

minus024

032

044

022

minus033

043

minus097

minus204lowast

minus13

1

Risalpur

MK

191

128

006

minus027

minus033

minus037

minus006

minus063

minus026

minus14

6minus18

7minus217lowast

SR213lowast

113

006

minus036

minus017

minus025

minus005

minus072

minus026

minus15

0minus211lowast

minus216lowast

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend







0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


34∘-00998400

34∘-15998400

34∘-30998400

34∘-45998400

35∘-00998400

35∘-15998400

35∘-30998400

35∘-45998400

36∘-00998400

34∘-00998400

34∘-15998400

34∘-30998400

34∘-45998400

35∘-00998400

35∘-15998400

35∘-30998400

35∘-45998400

36∘-00998400

70∘-4

5998400

71∘-0

0998400

71∘-1

5998400

71∘-3

0998400

71∘-4

5998400

72∘-0

0998400

72∘-1

5998400

72∘-3

0998400

72∘-4

5998400

73∘-0

0998400

70∘-4

5998400

71∘-0

0998400

71∘-1

5998400

71∘-3

0998400

71∘-4

5998400

72∘-0

0998400

72∘-1

5998400

72∘-3

0998400

72∘-4

5998400

73∘-0

0998400

Afghan

istan

A3

A3

A2

A2

A1

A1

A4

A4

N

Ambahar

Abazai

ToorCamp

Dir

Drosh Kalam

Thalozom

Madyan

Khairabad

Saidu Sharif

Malakand

Mardan

RisalpurCharsadda

Kulangi

Upper Swat subbasin

Panjkora subbasin

Ambahar subbasin

Lower Swat subbasin







1199031=

sum119899minus1

119894=1

(119883119894minus 119883) (119883

119894+1minus 119883)

sum119899

119894=1

(119883119894minus 119883)

2

(1)



1199031(95) =


119899 minus 1

(2)




119876radic119899 119877radic119899






0) was that there




119878 =

119899minus1

sum

119894=1

119899

sum

119895=119894+1

sig (119883119895minus 119883119894)

sgn (119883119895minus 119883119894) =

+1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) gt 0

0 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) = 0

minus1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) lt 0

119881 (119878) =

1

18

[119899 (119899 minus 1) (2119899 + 5) minus

119902

sum

119901=1

119905119901(119905119901minus 1) (2119905

119901+ 5)]

119885 =

119878 minus 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 gt 0

0 if 119878 = 0

119878 + 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 lt 0

(3)








normal table is 196





119877sp = 1 minus

6sum119899

119894=1

(119863119894minus 119894)2

119899 (1198992

minus 1)

119885sp = 119877spradic119899 minus 2

1 minus 1198772

sp

(4)




(119899minus21minus1205722) (H0) is



119879119894=

119909119895minus 119909119896

119895 minus 119896

(5)




119876119894=

119879(119873+1)2

119873 is odd1

2

(1198791198732

+ 119879(119873+2)2

) 119873 is even(6)






119862119896

119862V










0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year


minus3

minus2

minus1

(a)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(b)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(c)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(d)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus3

minus2

minus1

(e)



Table3MKandSR

tests

results

forp

recipitatio

nin

mon

thlytim

eseries

Station

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Thalozom

MK

minus063

minus10

9minus042

minus219lowast

minus033

272lowast

minus080

minus094

minus029

010

146

030

SRminus044

minus10

1minus039

minus215lowast

minus040

293lowast

minus079

minus10

3minus013

028

141

013

Drosh

MK

minus008

minus024

016

minus067

063

151

minus19

4minus316lowast

minus063

040

103

001

SRminus014

minus001

008

minus079

067

173

minus18

7minus336lowast

minus050

039

101

017

Kalam

MK

minus037

minus067

033

minus221lowast

minus063

219lowast

minus115

minus10

4minus054

014

120

017

SRminus023

minus052

023

minus213lowast

minus064

229lowast

minus113

minus10

7minus043

014

091

minus066

Dir

MK

000

minus063

minus248lowast

minus021

minus079

112

minus015

003

174

minus13

1minus034

minus089

SRminus016

minus062

minus280lowast

minus018

minus10

010

7minus001

minus002

203lowast

minus16

3minus049

minus10

1

Madyan

MK

089

075

110

minus083

086

353lowast

minus312lowast

minus338lowast

minus023

190

272lowast

134

SR086

070

113

minus067

085

426lowast

minus324lowast

minus398lowast

minus016

200

301lowast

132

Khaira

bad

MK

091

minus068

minus021

minus080

201lowast

385lowast

minus312lowast

minus348lowast

minus019

268lowast

292lowast

112

SR082

minus072

minus028

minus079

204lowast

446lowast

minus334lowast

minus460lowast

minus017

308lowast

325lowast

097

ToorCa

mp

MK

192

093

045

minus070

minus044

minus086

minus291lowast

minus296lowast

minus227lowast

minus201lowast

094

028

SR17

8085

025

minus082

minus047

minus091

minus317lowast

minus361lowast

minus279lowast

minus233lowast

104

020

SaiduSh

arif

MK

274lowast

246lowast

222lowast

182

285lowast

327lowast

minus334lowast

minus309lowast

003

319lowast

357lowast

210lowast

SR302lowast

262lowast

261lowast

205lowast

324lowast

383lowast

minus360lowast

minus387lowast

020

364lowast

405lowast

217lowast

Malakand

MK

105

minus17

2minus115

010

228lowast

322lowast

minus318lowast

minus293lowast

016

350lowast

273lowast

149

SR099

minus202lowast

minus13

2022

254lowast

302lowast

minus380lowast

minus382lowast

023

397lowast

223lowast

091

Kulang

iMK

070

minus099

minus294lowast

minus14

4minus062

036

000

174

291lowast

minus16

4minus003

minus204lowast

SR059

minus10

4minus315lowast

minus14

1minus081

024

008

165

336lowast

minus18

5minus031

minus231lowast

Ambahar

MK

031

minus066

minus284lowast

minus10

5minus115

060

018

060

304lowast

minus13

6minus021

minus18

0SR

038

minus070

minus282lowast

minus111

minus118

058

019

034

356lowast

minus15

1minus029

minus201lowast

Abazai

MK

233lowast

minus025

minus091

137

292lowast

449lowast

minus262lowast

minus10

710

2331lowast

392lowast

261lowast

SR222lowast

minus029

minus090

162

289lowast

435lowast

minus307lowast

minus10

913

7385lowast

366lowast

272lowast

Mardan

MK

243lowast

134

041

001

105

070

014

minus016

100

minus058

minus13

1minus13

7SR

253lowast

134

050

011

110

072

025

minus020

088

minus051

minus115

minus115

Charsadd

aMK

232lowast

109

032

minus012

015

034

014

minus014

056

minus10

4minus217lowast

minus15

9SR

237lowast

109

026

minus024

032

044

022

minus033

043

minus097

minus204lowast

minus13

1

Risalpur

MK

191

128

006

minus027

minus033

minus037

minus006

minus063

minus026

minus14

6minus18

7minus217lowast

SR213lowast

113

006

minus036

minus017

minus025

minus005

minus072

minus026

minus15

0minus211lowast

minus216lowast

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend







0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in




119876radic119899 119877radic119899






0) was that there




119878 =

119899minus1

sum

119894=1

119899

sum

119895=119894+1

sig (119883119895minus 119883119894)

sgn (119883119895minus 119883119894) =

+1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) gt 0

0 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) = 0

minus1 if (119883119895minus 119883119894) lt 0

119881 (119878) =

1

18

[119899 (119899 minus 1) (2119899 + 5) minus

119902

sum

119901=1

119905119901(119905119901minus 1) (2119905

119901+ 5)]

119885 =

119878 minus 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 gt 0

0 if 119878 = 0

119878 + 1

radicVAR (119878)if 119878 lt 0

(3)








normal table is 196





119877sp = 1 minus

6sum119899

119894=1

(119863119894minus 119894)2

119899 (1198992

minus 1)

119885sp = 119877spradic119899 minus 2

1 minus 1198772

sp

(4)




(119899minus21minus1205722) (H0) is



119879119894=

119909119895minus 119909119896

119895 minus 119896

(5)




119876119894=

119879(119873+1)2

119873 is odd1

2

(1198791198732

+ 119879(119873+2)2

) 119873 is even(6)






119862119896

119862V










0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year


minus3

minus2

minus1

(a)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(b)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(c)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(d)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus3

minus2

minus1

(e)



Table3MKandSR

tests

results

forp

recipitatio

nin

mon

thlytim

eseries

Station

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Thalozom

MK

minus063

minus10

9minus042

minus219lowast

minus033

272lowast

minus080

minus094

minus029

010

146

030

SRminus044

minus10

1minus039

minus215lowast

minus040

293lowast

minus079

minus10

3minus013

028

141

013

Drosh

MK

minus008

minus024

016

minus067

063

151

minus19

4minus316lowast

minus063

040

103

001

SRminus014

minus001

008

minus079

067

173

minus18

7minus336lowast

minus050

039

101

017

Kalam

MK

minus037

minus067

033

minus221lowast

minus063

219lowast

minus115

minus10

4minus054

014

120

017

SRminus023

minus052

023

minus213lowast

minus064

229lowast

minus113

minus10

7minus043

014

091

minus066

Dir

MK

000

minus063

minus248lowast

minus021

minus079

112

minus015

003

174

minus13

1minus034

minus089

SRminus016

minus062

minus280lowast

minus018

minus10

010

7minus001

minus002

203lowast

minus16

3minus049

minus10

1

Madyan

MK

089

075

110

minus083

086

353lowast

minus312lowast

minus338lowast

minus023

190

272lowast

134

SR086

070

113

minus067

085

426lowast

minus324lowast

minus398lowast

minus016

200

301lowast

132

Khaira

bad

MK

091

minus068

minus021

minus080

201lowast

385lowast

minus312lowast

minus348lowast

minus019

268lowast

292lowast

112

SR082

minus072

minus028

minus079

204lowast

446lowast

minus334lowast

minus460lowast

minus017

308lowast

325lowast

097

ToorCa

mp

MK

192

093

045

minus070

minus044

minus086

minus291lowast

minus296lowast

minus227lowast

minus201lowast

094

028

SR17

8085

025

minus082

minus047

minus091

minus317lowast

minus361lowast

minus279lowast

minus233lowast

104

020

SaiduSh

arif

MK

274lowast

246lowast

222lowast

182

285lowast

327lowast

minus334lowast

minus309lowast

003

319lowast

357lowast

210lowast

SR302lowast

262lowast

261lowast

205lowast

324lowast

383lowast

minus360lowast

minus387lowast

020

364lowast

405lowast

217lowast

Malakand

MK

105

minus17

2minus115

010

228lowast

322lowast

minus318lowast

minus293lowast

016

350lowast

273lowast

149

SR099

minus202lowast

minus13

2022

254lowast

302lowast

minus380lowast

minus382lowast

023

397lowast

223lowast

091

Kulang

iMK

070

minus099

minus294lowast

minus14

4minus062

036

000

174

291lowast

minus16

4minus003

minus204lowast

SR059

minus10

4minus315lowast

minus14

1minus081

024

008

165

336lowast

minus18

5minus031

minus231lowast

Ambahar

MK

031

minus066

minus284lowast

minus10

5minus115

060

018

060

304lowast

minus13

6minus021

minus18

0SR

038

minus070

minus282lowast

minus111

minus118

058

019

034

356lowast

minus15

1minus029

minus201lowast

Abazai

MK

233lowast

minus025

minus091

137

292lowast

449lowast

minus262lowast

minus10

710

2331lowast

392lowast

261lowast

SR222lowast

minus029

minus090

162

289lowast

435lowast

minus307lowast

minus10

913

7385lowast

366lowast

272lowast

Mardan

MK

243lowast

134

041

001

105

070

014

minus016

100

minus058

minus13

1minus13

7SR

253lowast

134

050

011

110

072

025

minus020

088

minus051

minus115

minus115

Charsadd

aMK

232lowast

109

032

minus012

015

034

014

minus014

056

minus10

4minus217lowast

minus15

9SR

237lowast

109

026

minus024

032

044

022

minus033

043

minus097

minus204lowast

minus13

1

Risalpur

MK

191

128

006

minus027

minus033

minus037

minus006

minus063

minus026

minus14

6minus18

7minus217lowast

SR213lowast

113

006

minus036

minus017

minus025

minus005

minus072

minus026

minus15

0minus211lowast

minus216lowast

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend







0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in




119862119896

119862V










0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year


minus3

minus2

minus1

(a)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(b)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(c)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(d)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus3

minus2

minus1

(e)



Table3MKandSR

tests

results

forp

recipitatio

nin

mon

thlytim

eseries

Station

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Thalozom

MK

minus063

minus10

9minus042

minus219lowast

minus033

272lowast

minus080

minus094

minus029

010

146

030

SRminus044

minus10

1minus039

minus215lowast

minus040

293lowast

minus079

minus10

3minus013

028

141

013

Drosh

MK

minus008

minus024

016

minus067

063

151

minus19

4minus316lowast

minus063

040

103

001

SRminus014

minus001

008

minus079

067

173

minus18

7minus336lowast

minus050

039

101

017

Kalam

MK

minus037

minus067

033

minus221lowast

minus063

219lowast

minus115

minus10

4minus054

014

120

017

SRminus023

minus052

023

minus213lowast

minus064

229lowast

minus113

minus10

7minus043

014

091

minus066

Dir

MK

000

minus063

minus248lowast

minus021

minus079

112

minus015

003

174

minus13

1minus034

minus089

SRminus016

minus062

minus280lowast

minus018

minus10

010

7minus001

minus002

203lowast

minus16

3minus049

minus10

1

Madyan

MK

089

075

110

minus083

086

353lowast

minus312lowast

minus338lowast

minus023

190

272lowast

134

SR086

070

113

minus067

085

426lowast

minus324lowast

minus398lowast

minus016

200

301lowast

132

Khaira

bad

MK

091

minus068

minus021

minus080

201lowast

385lowast

minus312lowast

minus348lowast

minus019

268lowast

292lowast

112

SR082

minus072

minus028

minus079

204lowast

446lowast

minus334lowast

minus460lowast

minus017

308lowast

325lowast

097

ToorCa

mp

MK

192

093

045

minus070

minus044

minus086

minus291lowast

minus296lowast

minus227lowast

minus201lowast

094

028

SR17

8085

025

minus082

minus047

minus091

minus317lowast

minus361lowast

minus279lowast

minus233lowast

104

020

SaiduSh

arif

MK

274lowast

246lowast

222lowast

182

285lowast

327lowast

minus334lowast

minus309lowast

003

319lowast

357lowast

210lowast

SR302lowast

262lowast

261lowast

205lowast

324lowast

383lowast

minus360lowast

minus387lowast

020

364lowast

405lowast

217lowast

Malakand

MK

105

minus17

2minus115

010

228lowast

322lowast

minus318lowast

minus293lowast

016

350lowast

273lowast

149

SR099

minus202lowast

minus13

2022

254lowast

302lowast

minus380lowast

minus382lowast

023

397lowast

223lowast

091

Kulang

iMK

070

minus099

minus294lowast

minus14

4minus062

036

000

174

291lowast

minus16

4minus003

minus204lowast

SR059

minus10

4minus315lowast

minus14

1minus081

024

008

165

336lowast

minus18

5minus031

minus231lowast

Ambahar

MK

031

minus066

minus284lowast

minus10

5minus115

060

018

060

304lowast

minus13

6minus021

minus18

0SR

038

minus070

minus282lowast

minus111

minus118

058

019

034

356lowast

minus15

1minus029

minus201lowast

Abazai

MK

233lowast

minus025

minus091

137

292lowast

449lowast

minus262lowast

minus10

710

2331lowast

392lowast

261lowast

SR222lowast

minus029

minus090

162

289lowast

435lowast

minus307lowast

minus10

913

7385lowast

366lowast

272lowast

Mardan

MK

243lowast

134

041

001

105

070

014

minus016

100

minus058

minus13

1minus13

7SR

253lowast

134

050

011

110

072

025

minus020

088

minus051

minus115

minus115

Charsadd

aMK

232lowast

109

032

minus012

015

034

014

minus014

056

minus10

4minus217lowast

minus15

9SR

237lowast

109

026

minus024

032

044

022

minus033

043

minus097

minus204lowast

minus13

1

Risalpur

MK

191

128

006

minus027

minus033

minus037

minus006

minus063

minus026

minus14

6minus18

7minus217lowast

SR213lowast

113

006

minus036

minus017

minus025

minus005

minus072

minus026

minus15

0minus211lowast

minus216lowast

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend







0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year


minus3

minus2

minus1

(a)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(b)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(c)


0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus2

minus1

(d)


0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

Year

minus3

minus2

minus1

(e)



Table3MKandSR

tests

results

forp

recipitatio

nin

mon

thlytim

eseries

Station

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Thalozom

MK

minus063

minus10

9minus042

minus219lowast

minus033

272lowast

minus080

minus094

minus029

010

146

030

SRminus044

minus10

1minus039

minus215lowast

minus040

293lowast

minus079

minus10

3minus013

028

141

013

Drosh

MK

minus008

minus024

016

minus067

063

151

minus19

4minus316lowast

minus063

040

103

001

SRminus014

minus001

008

minus079

067

173

minus18

7minus336lowast

minus050

039

101

017

Kalam

MK

minus037

minus067

033

minus221lowast

minus063

219lowast

minus115

minus10

4minus054

014

120

017

SRminus023

minus052

023

minus213lowast

minus064

229lowast

minus113

minus10

7minus043

014

091

minus066

Dir

MK

000

minus063

minus248lowast

minus021

minus079

112

minus015

003

174

minus13

1minus034

minus089

SRminus016

minus062

minus280lowast

minus018

minus10

010

7minus001

minus002

203lowast

minus16

3minus049

minus10

1

Madyan

MK

089

075

110

minus083

086

353lowast

minus312lowast

minus338lowast

minus023

190

272lowast

134

SR086

070

113

minus067

085

426lowast

minus324lowast

minus398lowast

minus016

200

301lowast

132

Khaira

bad

MK

091

minus068

minus021

minus080

201lowast

385lowast

minus312lowast

minus348lowast

minus019

268lowast

292lowast

112

SR082

minus072

minus028

minus079

204lowast

446lowast

minus334lowast

minus460lowast

minus017

308lowast

325lowast

097

ToorCa

mp

MK

192

093

045

minus070

minus044

minus086

minus291lowast

minus296lowast

minus227lowast

minus201lowast

094

028

SR17

8085

025

minus082

minus047

minus091

minus317lowast

minus361lowast

minus279lowast

minus233lowast

104

020

SaiduSh

arif

MK

274lowast

246lowast

222lowast

182

285lowast

327lowast

minus334lowast

minus309lowast

003

319lowast

357lowast

210lowast

SR302lowast

262lowast

261lowast

205lowast

324lowast

383lowast

minus360lowast

minus387lowast

020

364lowast

405lowast

217lowast

Malakand

MK

105

minus17

2minus115

010

228lowast

322lowast

minus318lowast

minus293lowast

016

350lowast

273lowast

149

SR099

minus202lowast

minus13

2022

254lowast

302lowast

minus380lowast

minus382lowast

023

397lowast

223lowast

091

Kulang

iMK

070

minus099

minus294lowast

minus14

4minus062

036

000

174

291lowast

minus16

4minus003

minus204lowast

SR059

minus10

4minus315lowast

minus14

1minus081

024

008

165

336lowast

minus18

5minus031

minus231lowast

Ambahar

MK

031

minus066

minus284lowast

minus10

5minus115

060

018

060

304lowast

minus13

6minus021

minus18

0SR

038

minus070

minus282lowast

minus111

minus118

058

019

034

356lowast

minus15

1minus029

minus201lowast

Abazai

MK

233lowast

minus025

minus091

137

292lowast

449lowast

minus262lowast

minus10

710

2331lowast

392lowast

261lowast

SR222lowast

minus029

minus090

162

289lowast

435lowast

minus307lowast

minus10

913

7385lowast

366lowast

272lowast

Mardan

MK

243lowast

134

041

001

105

070

014

minus016

100

minus058

minus13

1minus13

7SR

253lowast

134

050

011

110

072

025

minus020

088

minus051

minus115

minus115

Charsadd

aMK

232lowast

109

032

minus012

015

034

014

minus014

056

minus10

4minus217lowast

minus15

9SR

237lowast

109

026

minus024

032

044

022

minus033

043

minus097

minus204lowast

minus13

1

Risalpur

MK

191

128

006

minus027

minus033

minus037

minus006

minus063

minus026

minus14

6minus18

7minus217lowast

SR213lowast

113

006

minus036

minus017

minus025

minus005

minus072

minus026

minus15

0minus211lowast

minus216lowast

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend







0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Table3MKandSR

tests

results

forp

recipitatio

nin

mon

thlytim

eseries

Station

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Thalozom

MK

minus063

minus10

9minus042

minus219lowast

minus033

272lowast

minus080

minus094

minus029

010

146

030

SRminus044

minus10

1minus039

minus215lowast

minus040

293lowast

minus079

minus10

3minus013

028

141

013

Drosh

MK

minus008

minus024

016

minus067

063

151

minus19

4minus316lowast

minus063

040

103

001

SRminus014

minus001

008

minus079

067

173

minus18

7minus336lowast

minus050

039

101

017

Kalam

MK

minus037

minus067

033

minus221lowast

minus063

219lowast

minus115

minus10

4minus054

014

120

017

SRminus023

minus052

023

minus213lowast

minus064

229lowast

minus113

minus10

7minus043

014

091

minus066

Dir

MK

000

minus063

minus248lowast

minus021

minus079

112

minus015

003

174

minus13

1minus034

minus089

SRminus016

minus062

minus280lowast

minus018

minus10

010

7minus001

minus002

203lowast

minus16

3minus049

minus10

1

Madyan

MK

089

075

110

minus083

086

353lowast

minus312lowast

minus338lowast

minus023

190

272lowast

134

SR086

070

113

minus067

085

426lowast

minus324lowast

minus398lowast

minus016

200

301lowast

132

Khaira

bad

MK

091

minus068

minus021

minus080

201lowast

385lowast

minus312lowast

minus348lowast

minus019

268lowast

292lowast

112

SR082

minus072

minus028

minus079

204lowast

446lowast

minus334lowast

minus460lowast

minus017

308lowast

325lowast

097

ToorCa

mp

MK

192

093

045

minus070

minus044

minus086

minus291lowast

minus296lowast

minus227lowast

minus201lowast

094

028

SR17

8085

025

minus082

minus047

minus091

minus317lowast

minus361lowast

minus279lowast

minus233lowast

104

020

SaiduSh

arif

MK

274lowast

246lowast

222lowast

182

285lowast

327lowast

minus334lowast

minus309lowast

003

319lowast

357lowast

210lowast

SR302lowast

262lowast

261lowast

205lowast

324lowast

383lowast

minus360lowast

minus387lowast

020

364lowast

405lowast

217lowast

Malakand

MK

105

minus17

2minus115

010

228lowast

322lowast

minus318lowast

minus293lowast

016

350lowast

273lowast

149

SR099

minus202lowast

minus13

2022

254lowast

302lowast

minus380lowast

minus382lowast

023

397lowast

223lowast

091

Kulang

iMK

070

minus099

minus294lowast

minus14

4minus062

036

000

174

291lowast

minus16

4minus003

minus204lowast

SR059

minus10

4minus315lowast

minus14

1minus081

024

008

165

336lowast

minus18

5minus031

minus231lowast

Ambahar

MK

031

minus066

minus284lowast

minus10

5minus115

060

018

060

304lowast

minus13

6minus021

minus18

0SR

038

minus070

minus282lowast

minus111

minus118

058

019

034

356lowast

minus15

1minus029

minus201lowast

Abazai

MK

233lowast

minus025

minus091

137

292lowast

449lowast

minus262lowast

minus10

710

2331lowast

392lowast

261lowast

SR222lowast

minus029

minus090

162

289lowast

435lowast

minus307lowast

minus10

913

7385lowast

366lowast

272lowast

Mardan

MK

243lowast

134

041

001

105

070

014

minus016

100

minus058

minus13

1minus13

7SR

253lowast

134

050

011

110

072

025

minus020

088

minus051

minus115

minus115

Charsadd

aMK

232lowast

109

032

minus012

015

034

014

minus014

056

minus10

4minus217lowast

minus15

9SR

237lowast

109

026

minus024

032

044

022

minus033

043

minus097

minus204lowast

minus13

1

Risalpur

MK

191

128

006

minus027

minus033

minus037

minus006

minus063

minus026

minus14

6minus18

7minus217lowast

SR213lowast

113

006

minus036

minus017

minus025

minus005

minus072

minus026

minus15

0minus211lowast

minus216lowast

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend







0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Jan Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend







0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(a)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

mon

th)

Year


(b)
























N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


N

0 5 10 25

Scale

(km)


No trend

Winter

Autumn Annual

Spring Summer








Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Table5MKandSR

tests

results

form

onthlyprecipitatio

ntim

eseriesinentireb

asin

andsubb

asinso

fSwatRiver

Subb

asin

Test

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

A1

MK

047

010

071

minus12

3041

349lowast

minus288lowast

minus318lowast

minus018

143

250lowast

094

SR045

006

074

minus098

047

409lowast

minus299lowast

minus363lowast

minus018

159

277lowast

094

A2

MK

107

080

016

minus093

021

201lowast

minus354lowast

minus416lowast

minus202lowast

000

187

062

SR095

072

001

minus099

013

231lowast

minus386lowast

minus486lowast

minus224lowast

011

200

063

A3

MK

250lowast

102

minus036

065

297lowast

390lowast

minus297lowast

minus255lowast

minus044

305lowast

295lowast

229lowast

SR267lowast

089

minus009

070

311lowast

479lowast

minus354lowast

minus322lowast

minus052

376lowast

365lowast

260lowast

A4

MK

237lowast

088

minus006

minus050

122

164

minus063

minus083

000

020

050

minus040

SR246lowast

084

minus001

minus059

117

182

minus059

minus090

001

045

023

minus046

AMK

185

110

013

minus062

123

369lowast

minus255lowast

minus361lowast

minus065

174

268lowast

070

SR17

010

4018

minus079

127

422lowast

minus277lowast

minus401lowast

minus070

181

299lowast

073

lowast

Sign

ificant

trend

at5

significance



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year


(a)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Mardan station

(b)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Charsadda station

(c)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

yea

r)

Year

Thalozom station

(d)



4 Discussion














5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in











5 Conclusions





Acknowledgments



References















































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in




































































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in