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Fairmas Hotel Report

Edition January 2016

Performance Analysis: December 2015 in some mayor German Destinations In Focus: That was 2015 - the hotel trade review of the year

Dear readers, 2015 was an exciting and highly emotional year. So what remains, apart from the impression of a tumultuous, shaken world? We can’t answer that one but we can show how the year turned out for the trade. We have analysed seven of the country’s most important destinations in a time- lapse sequence over a 12-month period: Berlin, Dresden, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Colo-gne / Bonn and Munich. Who are the winners and who the losers? The Hotel Report takes an analytical look at the performance of the big cities. Comprehensive and reliable data from the most extensive data bank in the business served as a basis, as, of course, did our expert knowledge gained from more than ten years of market experience. To begin with: 2015 was a successful year for the branch. You can check out the details elsewhere.

The year stuttered to a close. While hoteliers in Berlin, Hamburg and Cologne took joy in a strong December, the remaining desti-nations had to accept a drop in sales. And the general outlook for the coming months doesn’t provide much hope of relief. You’ll find out more in our Hotel Report which appears in a new format and now comes with its own web page.

We wish you healthy, happy and successful 2016 and, it goes without saying, some inspiring reading of our Hotel Report!

The team of Fairmas Hotel Report:

Nadine Kilian, Gabriele Kiessling, Melanie Schlüter

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Performance Analysis: December 2015 in some mayor German destinations And a preview on the next three months

© Fairmas 2016

Hotel Performance & Trends

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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG

Occ: 67%, ADR: €90, RevPar: €60 December performed much better than in the previous year, continuing the trend for the whole 12 month period. This is due exclusively to the rate, after a marginal decrease in oc-cupancy (Occ:-0.3%, RevPar: +4%, ADR: +4%). New Year‘s Eve and the Advent weekends went well, if not as strong as in the preceding year. Thanks to the favorable positioning of the turn of the year and the resulting midweek public holidays much good trade carried over into January. MICE business was particularly satisfying in the last month of the year. The general trend was once again confirmed here: heavy de-mand leading to price rises in the capital.

Occ: -1.7%; ADR: +1.6%; RevPar: -0.1%

January is expected to more or less reflect

last year‘s level. Coming straight after

New Year‘s Eve the week-end sold well, rates were clear-

ly up on the previous year. The Fashion Week is always

very difficult to estimate and generally not until the

last minute, so rates are still holding back. The Green

Week only plays a special role in the west half of the

city. Convention demand is slowly beginning to pick up

again now the Christmas break is over.

Occ: -3.4%; ADR: +4.6%; RevPar: +1.0%

The pre-booking status for February is

slightly lower in many hotels than last

year, although conditions are virtually identical: Carni-

val, Fruit Logistica, Berlinale – a repeat of 2015. More

than anything else, convention demand is still sluggish

at the moment while individual business is short term

anyway. Bautec, which follows its own biennial rhythm,

is with us again this year and should make for a rise

in rates.

Occ: -3.3%; ADR: -0.9%; RevPar: -4.1%

The forecast for March is pretty negative.

More holidays than last year fall in

March and Easter is traditionally a rate inhibitor, the

holidays either side of it providing just as little impetus.

An international soccer match at the Olympic Stadium

on Easter Saturday could still cause a minor increase

in rates. Advance bookings for the ITB are not yet up

to last year’s rate. We are also missing two congresses

which had an excellent effect on figures last year.

01 02 03

December 2015 – Final spurt in Berlin

Trend

+ 0,8%

+ 4,2%

+ 5,1%

Occ ADR RevPar

Occ: + 5,5 % ADR: - 4,9 %

RevPar: + 0,6 %

Occ: + 8,9 % ADR: + 0,4 %

RevPar: + 9,4 %

Occ: - 2,3 % ADR: + 0,9 %

RevPar: - 1,5 %

Occ: + 8,7 % ADR: + 5,8 %

RevPar: + 14,9 %

Occ: + 4,9 % ADR: - 2,8 %

RevPar: + 1,9 %

Occ: + 1,6 % ADR: + 3,4 %

RevPar: + 4,9 %

Occ: + 6,0 % ADR: - 3,8 %

RevPar: + 1,8 %

Occ: + 2,6 % ADR: - 6,5 %

RevPar: + 9,2 %

Occ: + 4,9 % ADR: + 27,4 %

RevPar: + 33,8 %

Occ: - 0,6 % ADR: + 6,2 %

RevPar: + 5,6 %

Occ: + 3,3 % ADR: + 5,4 %

RevPar: + 8,9 %

Occ: + 0,8 % ADR: + 4,2 %

RevPar: + 5,1 %

Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15

© Fairmas 2016


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December 2015 – Weak December in Dusseldorf Occ: 63%, ADR: €87, RevPar: €55December was not a good month for Dusseldorf – even if the disappointing results were not quite as dramatic as predic-ted. December turned up a negative performance in all three key areas: the rate decreased by about 0.7 percent, occup-ancy dropped by more than 1 percent. The rate was lower than in the previous year due to the absence of the biennial Valve World Expo which produced some respectable figures in December 2014. In many hotels less business trade was booked during the week than in the same month last year. RevPar closed about two percent down on last year‘s figure.

Occ: -3.1%; ADR: +1.9%; RevPar: -1.3%

January in Dusseldorf has so far been

marked by a falling trend, even if this is

not as completely negative as past forecasts would

have led us to believe. Advance booking for fairs is

definitely worse than last year. It remains to be seen

whether the trend is actually happening or whether

this is a more a confirmation of increased tenden-

cies to short-notice bookings for Corporate or MICE

business too.

Occ:-1.6%; ADR: +1.8%; RevPar: +0.2%

In contrast, the outlook for February is

much more optimistic; this is due more

than anything to a positive development in the rate.

This year sees the parallel occurrence of the Eurocis

and METAV trade fairs (biennially), which guarantees

additional turnover and is one reason for the positive

development in the rate. The leap year promises the

hotel trade an potential extra day of sales. That aside,

February is similar to 2015.

Occ: -10.5%, ADR: -3.4%, RevPar: -13.6%

March on the other hand shows an extre-

me decline in all 3 key figures. In addition

to Prowein and Beauty which take place in an annual

rhythm, the IDS Trade Fair is absent in Cologne in

2016, and this generated considerable over-flow trade

to Dusseldorf last year. Add to this the fact that this

year’s Easter holidays take place exclusively in March

and therefore occur for a whole week longer in the

month than was the case in 2015. This result is a drop

in occupancy and a lower average rate.

01 02 03

Occ: + 2,6 % ADR: - 0,1 %

RevPar: + 2,6 %

Occ: + 8,1 % ADR: + 2,8 %

RevPar: + 11,1 %

Occ: - 12,7 % ADR: - 38,0 %

RevPar: - 45,9 %

Occ: - 4,5 % ADR: + 4,1 %

RevPar: - 0,6 %

Occ: - 2,5 % ADR: + 2,7 %

RevPar: + 0,3 %

Occ: + 3,5 % ADR: + 5,8 %

RevPar: + 9,3 %

Occ: - 10,0 % ADR: - 25,2 %

RevPar: - 32,6 %

Occ: + 0,2 % ADR: - 21,5 %

RevPar: - 21,5 %

Occ: + 8,2 % ADR: + 31,1 %

RevPar: + 41,9 %

Occ: + 2,8 % ADR: + 6,8 %

RevPar: + 9,9 %

Occ: + 2,7 % ADR: + 15,2 %

RevPar: + 18,3 %

Occ: - 1,3 % ADR: - 0,7 %

RevPar: - 2,0 %


- 1,3 %

- 0,7 %

- 2,0 %

Occ ADR RevPar

Trend© Fairmas 2016


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December 2015 – Slight losses in Frankfurt OCC: 56%, ADR: €92, RevPar: €51December’s trend in the metropolis on the River Main was altogether negative. Despite a 3% rate increase RevPar fell in comparison to last year by about 0.4 %. Occupancy figu-res were distinctly weaker than 12 months ago. Occupancy stood at about four percent under last year‘s figure. Decem-ber was marked by some welcome demand in the confe-rence and banquet sector, which in turn led to a positive rate development. To counteract this, hoteliers could really only sell a mere two and a half business weeks on account of the holiday situation in December.

Occ: +0.7%, ADR: +6.2%, RevPar: +6.9%

January in Frankfurt saw growth in all 3 key

figures. January has one trade fair day more

for Paperworld/Christmasworld than last year. Hoteliers are

assuming that from the beginning of the year a basic rate

rise is planned in all sectors – more conference and event

trade is expected. From the third calendar week additional

corporate business is expected because all holidays in the

federal states will have finished by then.

Occ: -5.1%, ADR: +0.8%, RevPar: -4.3%

February presents a less positive image.

First, because there is one day less trade fair

business from Paperworld/Christmasworld. Secondly, the

carnival days have been moved one week forward. In 2015

the Ambiente Fair occurred concurrently to the carnival days,

which are otherwise dominated by cheaper trade. As a result,

2016 is not expected to witness any sizeable corporate or

event business throughout these days.

Occ: -2.7%, ADR: +3.0%, RevPar: +0.2%

March looks a little friendlier, with a slight

RevPar increase. This year Frankfurt welcomes

the Light & Building Fair once again and this promises a

similar rate level as the ISH in 2015. However, there are only

two commercial weeks which can be filled with corporate

and conference business because the 2016 Easter holidays

begin a week earlier than 2015 when, by contrast, there

were three commercial weeks.

01 02 03

Occ: - 3,3 % ADR: - 2,8 %

RevPar: - 5,8 %

Occ: + 3,0 % ADR: + 3,6 %

RevPar: + 6,7 %

Occ: - 5,3 % ADR: + 4,3 %

RevPar: - 1,1 %

Occ: - 0,6 % ADR: + 5,8 %

RevPar: + 5,3 %

Occ: + 3,9 % ADR: + 11,1 %

RevPar: + 15,5 %

Occ: + 0,0 % ADR: + 0,1 %

RevPar: + 0,0 %

Occ: + 2,1 % ADR: + 2,6 %

RevPar: + 4,8 %

Occ: + 4,8 % ADR: - 0,6 %

RevPar: + 4,4 %

Occ: + 13,5 % ADR: + 31,0 %

RevPar: + 48,9 %

Occ: + 2,4 % ADR: + 4,5 %

RevPar: + 6,9 %

Occ: - 0,1 % ADR: + 3,0 %

RevPar: + 3,1 %

Occ: - 3,6 % ADR: + 3,3 %

RevPar: - 0,4 %


- 3,6 %

+ 3,3 %

- 0,4 %

Occ ADR RevPar



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December 2015 – Final spurt in Hamburg OCC: 72%, ADR: €108, RevPar: €77December put on a friendly face for the hanseatic town. As in many other cities there was also a marked upsurge in MICE and leisure business. Last year 24th December fell on a Thursday (in the year before it was Wednesday) producing an additional day for commerce, which had a positive effect on the rate. Occupancy may have decreased by about 0.6 percent as a result but the rate saw an increase of four per-cent. The outcome of this was a RevPar approximately three percent above last year‘s figure.

Occ: +1.7%, ADR: +2.6%, RevPar: +4.3%

The New Year in Hamburg is expected to

start with some positive trends. RevPar

should increase by about four percent. The previous

year’s New Year‘s Eve was employee-friendly and encou-

raged many a tourist to book an extended week-end.

Having said that, January in the hanseatic town is not

much of a money-spinner. There are just a few smaller

fairs taking place in the halls of the Hamburg Trade

Fair Centre and these could potentially generate some

demand.

Occ: +0.6%, ADR: +3.4%, RevPar: +4.0%

Hoteliers are also calculating on a continu-

ation in growth for February, some already

reporting strong demand in the MICE segment. Hanse

Golf, Hamburg Motorbike Days, the Online Marketing

Rockstars Festival 2016 and other events look set to in-

crease demand. Hoteliers are hoping for additional sales

potential partly on account of the leap year, as February

has 29 days this time round.

Occ: -2.9%, ADR: +1.3%, RevPar: -1.6%

The trend in March is more negative in com-

parison to last year. In contrast to last year,

expectations are tempered by the setting of this year’s

Easter holidays on the last week-end in March (in 2015

they were at the beginning of April) and a weak forecast

for Internorga. All in all, there are significantly fewer event

days in March this year. A medical congress in the middle

of the month could still generate additional demand.

01 02 03

Occ: + 4,0 % ADR: + 1,4 %

RevPar: + 5,3 %

Occ: + 2,1 % ADR: + 4,6 %

RevPar: + 6,7 %

Occ: - 1,9 % ADR: + 1,9 %

RevPar: - 0,1 %

Occ: + 3,3 % ADR: + 5,0 %

RevPar: + 8,5 %

Occ: - 1,2 % ADR: - 9,5 %

RevPar: - 10,6 %

Occ: - 0,9 % ADR: + 2,1 %

RevPar: + 1,3 %

Occ: + 4,7 % ADR: + 2,5 %

RevPar: + 7,6 %

Occ: + 0,1 % ADR: + 6,0 %

RevPar: + 6,2 %

Occ: + 1,9 % ADR: + 4,0 %

RevPar: + 6,0 %

Occ: - 5,1 % ADR: + 0,4 %

RevPar: - 4,9 %

Occ: - 2,6 % ADR: + 2,5 %

RevPar: - 0,1 %

Occ: - 0,6 % ADR: + 3,8 %

RevPar: + 3,2 %


- 0,6 %

+ 3,8 %+ 3,2 %

Occ ADR RevPar



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December 2015 – RevPar growth in Cologne/BonnOCC: 67%, ADR: €93, RevPar: €62December was tricky to predict. The Advent trade with its Christmas Fair week-ends was accordingly short-notice trade but still very good in spite of mild weather. New Year‘s Eve is traditionally strong and this year extremely employee-friend-ly with weekends and public holidays harmonizing to provide long breaks. Despite this, occupancy still decreased by about two percent. The rate did manage an increase of a clear four percent. Last year the week-end before Christmas Eve was also still very upscale. RevPar increased by just under three percent.

Occ: -0.5%; ADR: +1.3%; RevPar: +0.8%

During the first two January weeks demand

remains relatively low. The first week-end

in January was sold together with New Year‘s Eve and

produced some respectable figures. The IMM Cologne

(18.-24.01.2016) is good for the rate. However, this year

it takes place this year without Living Kitchen (2-year

cycle) and demand is noticeably slow. On a more positive

note, the first day of the International Sweets & Biscuits

Fair ISM Cologne just about falls in January (31.01.-

03.02.2016) and will be very good for performance.

Occ: -1.2%; ADR: +3.1%; RevPar: +1.9%

With the exception of the few days of the ISM

Cologne demand in February in Cologne /

Bonn is generally very restrained. Higher rates are possib-

le especially during the days of the carnival. An additional

plus is that the end of the ISM links up smoothly with the

main carnival period so there’ll be no loss of half a busi-

ness week, as last year. Between 16th and 20th January

the Didacta takes place; it guests alternatively in Cologne,

Stuttgart and Hannover.

Occ: -13.3%; ADR: -20.8%; RevPar: -31.3%

Last year saw two very important trade fairs

in March - the IDS and Anuga. This year

there’s just the International Hardware Fair for which

demand is not nearly so great as either of the other

two fairs and doesn’t produce similarly high rates as a

consequence. A further significant factor is the Easter

holidays which lie almost completely in March and create

difficulties for demand and rate structure. Because of the

early Easter placing, the urge to travel will probably be

more restrained.

01 02 03

Occ: + 2,4 % ADR: - 2,4 %

RevPar: - 0,2 %

Occ: + 6,9 % ADR: + 28,8 %

RevPar: + 37,4 %

Occ: - 3,0 % ADR: + 7,5 %

RevPar: + 4,2 %

Occ: - 0,3 % ADR: + 3,7 %

RevPar: + 3,4 %

Occ: - 3,7 % ADR: - 6,8 %

RevPar: - 10,4 %

Occ: + 1,6 % ADR: + 4,8 %

RevPar: + 6,4 %

Occ: + 6,5 % ADR: + 8,0 %

RevPar: + 14,9 %

Occ: + 6,9 % ADR: + 6,7 %

RevPar: + 13,9 %

Occ: + 10,7 % ADR: + 11,3 %

RevPar: + 23,3 %

Occ: + 4,3 % ADR: + 10,2 %

RevPar: + 15,0 %

Occ: + 8,5 % ADR: + 30,3 %

RevPar: + 41,3 %

Occ: - 1,9 % ADR: + 4,4 %

RevPar: + 2,5 %


- 1,9 %

+ 4,4 %

+ 2,5 %

Occ ADR RevPar



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December 2015 – Munich below last yearOCC: 69%, ADR: €115, RevPar: €79December was all together somewhat below last year‘s level. Occupancy decreased by about 5 percent, the rate rose by two percent. As a direct result, RevPar decreased by about three percent. The holiday situation meant that only two and a half business weeks were available. This left group reser-vations clearly down on the previous year. The Advent week-ends went traditionally well. All in all, there was a decline in actual bookings because of the falling stopover business at Christmas and on New Year‘s Eve in many hotels. The big demand in the Corporate Transient segment led to a clear rate increase.

Occ: 1.2%; ADR: -13.1%; RevPar: -12.0%

January 2016 is the time for ISPO. It is,

however, substantially weaker than the BAU

Trade Fair in 2015 which takes place only every two years

and will not come round again until 2017. The rates will

have to be radically lowered to cover the January drop in

demand. Leisure business in the first January week can

significantly accelerate occupancy, even though the rates

are rather low. The holiday situation will create only some

small-scale corporate business anyway in the first week.

Occ: -5.5%; ADR: -6.3%; RevPar: -11.4%

February is likely to be just as weak. No fairs

or events are planned. Up to now there are

also no indications for an upsurge in business for meetings.

From the second January week, though, general demand

also begins to increase again for February. In 2015, Febru-

ary was particularly influenced by the ISPO, which this year

takes place in January. This leaves February 2016 without

an all-important impulse for demand.

Occ: +2.2%; ADR: +11.9%; RevPar: +14.4%

In strong contrast, March will be a good

month. The EAU Congress and the FAF Fair,

which alternate on a 3-year cycle between Cologne and

Munich, will have a very positive influence on occupancy

and average rate. Then there’s a football international and

a Champions League match. March 2015 had to survive

entirely without any such events. The Easter week-end also

happens to fall in March, which doesn’t help the rate but

greatly improves occupancy.

01 02 03

Occ: + 4,5 % ADR: + 12,0 %

RevPar: + 16,9 %

Occ: + 4,0 % ADR: + 1,7 %

RevPar: + 5,7 %

Occ: - 3,2 % ADR: - 4,1 %

RevPar: - 7,2 %

Occ: + 0,9 % ADR: + 6,9 %

RevPar: + 7,8 %

Occ: - 2,1 % ADR: - 1,1 %

RevPar: - 3,1 %

Occ: - 1,0 % ADR: - 6,8 %

RevPar: - 7,9 %

Occ: + 6,8 % ADR: + 11,6 %

RevPar: + 19,3 %

Occ: - 1,2 % ADR: + 4,0 %

RevPar: + 2,9 %

Occ: + 4,6 % ADR: + 1,8 %

RevPar: + 6,5 %

Occ: + 0,1 % ADR: + 7,9 %

RevPar: + 8,0 %

Occ: - 1,3 % ADR: + 4,5 %

RevPar: + 3,0 %

Occ: - 5,2 % ADR: + 1,9 %

RevPar: - 1,3 %


- 5,2 %

+ 1,9 %

- 3,3 %

Occ ADR RevPar


Report


In Focus: That was 2015 – the hotel trade review of the year

© Fairmas 2016

Report

11

That was 2015 - the hotel trade review of the year

We still are – the world’s champion travellers. According to the BTW tourism index we Germans were on the road more than 1.67 billion days as private travellers in 2015, 1.8 percent more than in the year before. Every German - from baby to senior citizen - was on the move for an average of 20.6 days. Then you have to add business appointments, trade fairs, meetings and congresses. Our favourite destination is our own country. Good enough reason for a glow of satisfaction among the nation’s hoteliers? We consciously set a question mark here because an objective analysis can only be confirmed by the actual figures – or not. We have taken a fast-forward look at seven of the nation’s most important destinations over a 12-month period: Berlin, Dresden, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne / Bonn and Munich. Who are the winners and who are the losers? Which events made for full houses? Does Pegida affect Dresden as a holiday venue? How did the rate – perennial headache - develop in the country’s capital? The Fairmas analysis is based on data evaluated by the Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen. The percentages used in the text refer to comparative figures from 2014.

Berlin

Rising tourist numbers were not enough to satisfy hoteli-ers; the rates during the past few years have consistently remained below those of comparable major cities abroad. There were also extreme variations in occupancy rates. The start of the year saw this trend continue, with strong leisure business, Green Week, the fashion trade events Panorama and Fashion Week. Despite this, the rate was left in deficit (-6%). The rate issue persisted into February, bobbing up and down before settling at -2%. It wasn’t until spring that things finally improved. The ITB at the beginning of March

- with a longer stay than in previous years, set the first positi-ve signal, followed by two well- booked national congresses, which positively influenced occupancy and rate. With Easter 2015 falling at the beginning of April, March was a comple-

3,0%

4,4%

7,4%

3,2%

0,4%

1,5%

0,3%

3,6%

0,0%

2,4%

0,1%

4,1%

1,4%

‐0,4%

‐0,2%

0,0%

‐1,7%

2,0%

‐0,8%

‐0,3%

9,0%

4,1%

0,7%

4,1%

7,1%

5,9%

5,6%

1,7%

4,8%

1,5%

2,4%

‐2,1%

0,5%

2,2%

2,0%

1,5%

1,6%

‐3,5%

‐2,1%

‐2,9%

12,2%

8,8%

8,3%

7,7%

7,3%

7,3%

5,8%

5,2%

4,8%

3,9%

2,7%

2,0%

1,9%

1,8%

1,7%

1,6%

0,0%

‐1,6%

‐3,0%

‐3,2%

Cologne/Bonn

Heidelberg

Dortmund

Berlin

Rostock area

Frankfurt

Munster

Darmstadt

Stuttgart

Wiesbaden/Mainz

Munich

Hannover

Mainz

Leipzig

Dresden

Hamburg

Bremen

Essen/Bochum

Nuremberg

Dusseldorf

Occ ADR RevPar

te corporate business month attracting custom which sur-prised even branch experts. This is reflected in the stati-stics: Occ: +7%, ADR: +3%, RevPar: +10%. The good April results were achieved in particular by demand in the group travel sector over Easter, some lucrative corporate and convention business and two medical congresses (Diabetes Congress of the German Diabetes Association and the most important healthcare-IT industrial fair: conhIT). The rate climbed by 7%. The trend took a short breather in May, in-itiated by the absent ILA (biennially) and public holiday and bridging days round Ascension Day and Pentecost, which split the business month, (-2%) before revving up again for June. When was the last time Berlin hoteliers saw the rate climb by 28%? The main driving force here was the comple-

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© Fairmas 2016

Report

12

tely sold out Champions League Final, the Capital Congress, the EAN Congress and the Queen’s visit. The four weeks left for business coming so shortly before the summer holidays (they began in the middle of July) went very well considering. It’s now almost become a matter of routine for the trade to see a RevPar plus of nearly 15% in July, thanks primarily to two business weeks and the fashion events Bread&Butter, Panorama and Fashion Week, which also provided for over-flow in the hotels around the city, and not forgetting the MACCABI Games, the Jewish Olympics. August was the ex-pected leisure travel month and was an encouraging one all round (RevPar: +5%). The successful month of September 2015 was missing Innotrans, which takes place in a 2-year rhythm. Compensating for this were the IFA, HAI and CMS fairs, the Berlin marathon week-end, some solid corporate group and conference business and several smaller events (Occ: 4% increase, ADR: -3%, RevPar: 1%). October presen-ted sunnier figures, spurred on by the numerous festivities organised around the German Unity anniversary celebra-tions and two festivals of light, some short-term bookings in the corporate and leisure sectors and some favourable conference business (Occ: +2%; ADR: +6%; RevPar: +9%). The final two months of the year underlined the positive trend in the city’s hotel trade: all the three key figures pre-sented a plus. Many guests came for the Advent week-ends and New Year‘s Eve; MICE business was especially satisfying in last month of the year. 2015 - a good year: demand was strong and prices in the capital rose!

Dresden

Tourism experts were quick to point out that the Pegida marches and xenophobic slogans would damage the image of the Elbe city beyond its federal state borders. The hotel trade figures speak their own - politically independent - sto-

ry. If January produced good results for Dresden’s hoteli-ers after some strong leisure business (Occ: 7%, ADR 4%, RevPar: 11%), they had to prepare themselves for severe losses in corporate and leisure in the month that followed. At the same time the city was feeling the effects of a weak rouble, which kept many a Russian guest away (Occ: -9%, ADR: -3%, RevPar: -12%). March took its average course and some hotels registered a lull in business, particularly in the leisure segment. This was more or less compensated for by solid corporate activity. Spring was not in the air for a long time in Dresden as April’s leisure business at Easter remained below forecasts. The low number of meeting and group reservations, worsened by an absence of cor-porate business, made life difficult for Dresden hoteliers. Some congresses and conferences did do well, but failed to even out the overall negative trend. As a result, occup-ancy was down 7%, though the rate did manage to rise by 4% (RevPar: -4%). The holiday week-ends around May 1st, Ascension Day and Pentecost finally produced some better performance figures for May. These were enhanced by the G7 summit of Finance Ministers which created some lucra-tive last minute pick-up business, as did the sold-out ACDC concert. Occupancy rose by 1% and the rate by 3% - which in turn precipitated a RevPar increase of 4%. The whole of June was a business month which saw Dresden experience a pleasant rise in demand for corporate and meeting events which, as experience shows, generally leads to higher rates than in the leisure and group travel sectors. With a full ca-lendar of events the month of July accentuated this positi-ve development. Several festivals and concerts bestowed the city with fully-occupied hotels. August was probably too hot for city tourists, an international technology congress couldn’t compensate for sinking occupancy (-5%). Septem-ber was marked by extreme declines in group business and numerous cancellations. Luckily for the hoteliers some con-gresses and conferences, such as the Medical Conference, the Autumn Conference of the Society for Ergonomics and

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interspeech were better booked than expected so that all key figures rose (Occ: +2%, ADR: +2%, RevPar: +4%). Octo-ber was an average month (RevPar: -0.2%) after which the two final months of the year took a decidedly downward turn. Demand was low, even for the Advent week-ends – in 2014 a „sure thing“ – and remained below expectations and forecasts (Occ: Nov. -6%, Dec. -4%). In short: Dresden had a mixed year with hoteliers resisting the urge to react through the rate.

Dusseldorf

The North Rhine-Westphalian capital regularly produces fluctuating annual returns, determined primarily by the city’s trade fair calendar. After a moderate January with a stagnant rate and a RevPar of +2%, February hit rock bot-tom with a RevPar of -32%, mainly influenced by an extre-mely negative trend in the rate (-25%). The absence of Eu-roshop (triennial) had a special impact. Carnival time, the whole of which fell in February, did not help either. March could only get better – which it duly did! Four full business weeks raised occupancy by a clear 7% and there was some decent overflow business - from the IDS in Cologne, Pro-wein (which is gaining in momentum from year to year), Beauty Fair and Top Hair. Having hardly had a chance to recover, figures in April plummeted once again, noting a Re-vPar decline of 22%, influenced more than anything else by heavy losses of 21% in the rate. This was above all due to the discontinuation of the major industrial fair Wire & Tube (2-year cycle). Better news to come? Unfortunately not. Oc-cupancy in the merry month of May decreased by 13%. The rate decreased even more dramatically - by 38%. Several public holidays meant lower corporate and MICE activity as well as fewer fairs than 2014 - all of which combined to pre-vent the expected rise in upper-price category business; in

the end, Dusseldorf’s hoteliers had to accept a RevPar fall of 46%. What next? Another negative record month? On the contrary: June in Dusseldorf turned out to be as extremely positive as many other destinations, underscored by a de-cent rate increase (ADR: +32%). The principle movers here were the A-category GIFA (every 4 years) and the Döak Con-gress which generated a very high rate result. July hovered around the average (Occ: -5%, RevPar: -1%) before August clearly had something better to show with a RevPar incre-ase of 13%. The 2015 summer holidays were already over by mid-August leaving the last two weeks open for more corporate business. Although the forecasts had been less optimistic, September marked up a rate increase of more than 3%, thanks mainly to Expopharm and the FIP Congress. October saw impressive growth in overall performance with a two-digit rise of 18%. Part of the reason was the final two days of Expopharm, the A+A fair (every two years) and the

„knock-on” effect of Anuga in Cologne. November had also set its sights on growth, with a rate increase of 6%. Main contributors here were COMPAMED/MEDICA (according to trade fair rankings, the AHGZ is the most profitable fair in Germany) and strong corporate and MICE business. Further positive effects were gained through the relocation of the Klitschko contest from Hamburg to Dusseldorf. All this helped to somewhat alleviate the pain of a meagre perfor-mance in all 3 key areas (Occ: -2%, ADR: -1%, RevPar: -2.2%). The hoteliers in the Rhine metropolis have navigated the trough of a difficult year and can hope for good news in 2016 – the fair calendar speaks for itself!

Frankfurt

Figures for the hotel trade in the big city on the River Main are also essentially dependent on trade fair events. At the

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beginning of December 2015 Messe Frankfurt announced a new sales record for Frankfurt of 645 million euros. Is this also reflected in hotel performance? January did not look good as the month got under way, keeping below last year‘s level (Occ: -4%, ADR: -3%). February painted a different pic-ture, reversing the trend. It was helped by the final days of Paperworld, and then Ambience provided an improvement in rate and occupancy of 3% each. In March, the principle mover was the ISH Fair which comes every two years and influenced overall performance positively. In spite of the strong Music Fair, the absence of Light & Building 2015 played a key role in a drop in the rate (ADR: -0.5%). Easter trade proved especially satisfying; this was also reflected in positive occupancy figures and led to an overall positive result (RevPar: +4.5%). The May calendar had an adverse effect on corporate business in Frankfurt – as it did almost everywhere else. Occupancy was down 5%. Some consola-tion was offered by the Techtextil/Techprocess fair which returned after a 2-year break and brought a rate increase of 5%. RevPar still remained at 0.7% under last year‘s level. June in Frankfurt showed itself very positively in all three key areas (Occ: +14%, ADR: +31%, RevPar: +50%). The most important „mover“ was the leading trade fair Achema which takes place every three years. The second half of the month was characterised by additional individual pick-up business, in particular from the corporate sector. With strong de-mand in the conference and business sectors and steady bookings in group business, the summer months July and August offered some cheer, no hint of a shadow thrown by the summer break. At the end of August hoteliers registe-red the start of construction work for the International Mo-tor Show in September, which was the principal reason for a total increase of 15% in RevPar – a reflection of the positive development in the rate (+11%). This created some conti-nuity and October picked up on the trend with growth in all three key data (Occ: +0.1%, ADR: +3%, RevPar: +3%), es-sentially down to particularly strong demand in the groups

and banquet sectors - and the Book Fair. November saw stagnation in Frankfurt and December flagged a little with a RevPar decline of 0.4% in spite of an increase in the rate of just over 3%. All in all, the financial centre that is Frankfurt is an internationally famous congress and exhibition venue and a model student when it comes to stability.

Hamburg

Hamburg is one of those destinations that have enjoyed stable growth for many years. Could the Hanseatic town also maintain this successful course in 2015? January was positive all round; occupancy was especially encouraging, with an increase of 3%. Many hoteliers had already regis-tered some excellent pre-booking by at the beginning of the year for numerous events as well as a distinct rise in demand in the MICE segment. A mix of individual business, corporate groups and many smaller events and congresses presented the Hamburg hoteliers with growth rates, the main reason being the 4% increase in occupancy, which led to a 6% rise in RevPar. March fulfilled what the forecasts promised - the very strong national INTERNORGA is still a safe bet for full houses. It was helped by an international pharmaceutical congress and overall more event days than in the previous year; the rate rose by 4%. April saw the po-sitive trend continue (Occ: +0.7%, ADR: +5%, RevPar: +6%), the strong International Aircraft Interior industrial fair and the annual Haspa marathon produced strong rates, even if a lot of leisure travellers preferred to stay at home due to bad Easter weather, which in turn led to a fall in occupancy. In May the harbour anniversary once again generated hea-vy demand as did the Radiology Congress, the latter being primarily responsible for the 2% rate rise. The summer months June and July proceeded on a positive course for all three key figures (June: Occ: +2%, ADR: +4%, RevPar: +7%;

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July: Occ: +3%, ADR: +5%, RevPar: +8.4%). The international Harbour Congress IAPH brought some additional bookings in the first June week. In the same period, MICE business was going well and there was some particularly heavy last minute demand in the leisure segment. It took until August for the RevPar to drop into the minus zone for the first time (-4%). Was this nothing more than a slight hitch caused by a decline in corporate business - a result of the movable sum-mer holidays? It turned out not to be a passing phase as September developed very badly across the board (RevPar

-10%), essentially a consequence of the negative rate (ADR: -9%). The absence of the lucrative SMM and „WindEnergy“ fairs (every two years) left a hole in the figures which Octo-ber (Occ: -3%, ADR: +3%, RevPar: +0.1%) could not entirely put right, in spite of the EANM Nuclear Medicine Congress and the World Publishing Expo-Congress. November and December were noteworthy for some respectable key figu-res while the rate for the Christmas month was decidedly cheerful (ADR: +3.8%) and had a positive influence on Rev-Par. As in many other cities, there was a significant upturn in MICE and leisure business. Although there were no big international fairs in 2015 the hanseatic city once again confirmed its stability, the steamboat reliably holding its course for growth. There are two fundamental reasons for this: on the one hand, dependable leisure and solid MICE business over all twelve months and, on the other, and here the hoteliers were evidently united, no downward turn in the rate spiral.

Cologne/Bonn

Like Dusseldorf the performance of the metropolitan regi-on Cologne / Bonn is strongly dependent on the cycle of trade fairs and events. The market is regularly susceptible to fluctuation. In 2015 as well? The year started with cauti-

on; occupancy rose by 3%, the rate was down 2% causing RevPar to rise slightly by 0.5%. The first two January weeks are traditionally somewhat feeble, leading many hotels to try to stimulate leisure business with low rates. The ab-sence of the world’s biggest sweet and snacks fair ISM – this time in February – was particularly noticeable. The lucrati-ve international equipment fair imm Cologne was already sold out in advance in many hotels. February left its mark in Cologne / Bonn. Occupancy increased by 8%, the rate rose by 9% and, as a follow-on, RevPar by 17%. The main driving force here was the ISM. The carnival and overall de-mand for business and (at the week-ends) leisure produced very positive results. And so it should have continued. And it did. March brought high rate increases (+29%). Occup-ancy went up too by an impressive 8% (RevPar: +40%). Key factor here was the money-spinning, leading international fair of the dental trade which only takes place every three years. Another rate-strong fair, Anuga Foodtec, which has a 3-year cycle, made a significant contribution as well. Two full business weeks with heavy demand made the month complete. Branch experts were undecided as to what April would bring. Demand for the FIBO fair only took off very late, but when it did it was stronger and more upscale than last year. Occupancy rose by 8%, the rate about 7%, RevPar by 15%. Positive yet patchy, that was May, which saw the in-terzum Fair back after its year break. There were some last-minute bookings for the handball Champions League Final. Unfortunately, the public holiday and bridging days failed to bring the expected leisure business to the city, and the mo-vable fair FESPA fell below expectations. While occupancy decreased overall by 3%, the rate saw a respectable rise of 8%. RevPar increased by 5%. The ANGA COM and VICTAM (in conjunction with FIAAP and grapas), some overflow busi-ness from GIFA and concerts from Helene Fischer and ACDC brought two-digit growth figures for Dusseldorf in June. All in all, occupancy rose by 11% and the rate by 12% (Rev-Par: +24%). July was not quite so spectacular, but positive

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nevertheless, offering three upscale week-ends in Colog-ne: Christopher Street Day, Cologne Lights and the Amphi Festival. Very positive effects on August occupancy and rate were achieved by trade fairs (in particular gamescom) and sporting events. The rate rose by 9%, occupancy by 4% (Re-vPar: +13%). After eight months’ growth September confir-med the negative forecast. The Photokina Fair only takes place in even number years, something which not even the Child & Youth Trade Fair and the dmexco, which went off very well, could make up for. Some rather weak corporate business rounded off the disappointing month. All in all, there was a 4% decline in occupancy. The rate even fell by 7%, causing a RevPar decline of 11%. October put growth back on track again, driven by the anuga, which was already booked up months in advance. There was also the double fair Aquanale/FSB which, because of positive demand, could be sold for better rates. The Cologne marathon and two U2 concerts contributed their share. Hoteliers took heart at a 9% increase in occupancy. The rate rose by an even more impressive 30%. The result was a substantial RevPar hike of 42%. The year took its leave with some very decent figures.

Cologne / Bonn experienced a dynamic year with record-breaking growth figures, for which an enormously strong trade fair year was notably responsible.

Munich

Munich is still indisputably Germany’s most attractive ho-tel market. The Bavarian metropolis has enjoyed a steady rise in the number of visitors during the past few years, and the strong demand that goes with it. Was 2015 the same? January already saw the first positive markers being put down (Occ: +5%, ADR: +12%, RevPar: +17%). The key factor behind this encouraging development was the BAU cons-

truction trade fair taking place in its usual 2-year rhythm, always a safe bet for strong rates. The favourable snowy conditions made for consistently good bookings as many vacationers allowed themselves a stopover in Munich on the way to their ski destination. The trend continued into February with all signs pointing to growth (Occ: +6%, ADR: +11%, RevPar: +18%); the ISPO sports fair and the Munich Security Conference were the prime movers here.

Demand for corporate events and meetings was ro-bust. Weekends were still very good for business too, St Valentine’s Day in particular, but also the Bayern Munich home games. And so the spoilt-by-success story went on: March exceeded forecasts. A heathy demand in all seg-ments, strong business trip activity and very good confe-rence business positively affected occupancy and rate. The bad Easter weather and a meagre fair schedule were saved in the end by three full business weeks in April: occupancy dropped by 1%, the rate went up by 3% (RevPar: +2%). May was notable for the absence of the environmental technolo-gy fair IFAT, which takes place every two years. The transport logistic fair could not compensate for the lack of rate-strong business. The run of public holidays also put pressure on the rates, a trend reinforced by ‘filler’ business, especially from the individual and group segments, but also by who-lesale business. Occupancy and rate were 3% down, RevPar followed by dropping just under 6%. Two very strong fairs (Intersolar Europe and Laser World of Photonics) ensured some presentable June figures. The G7 Summit in Elmau Castle was only really lucrative for a select group of hotels. July showed a plus in all three key data (Occ: +0.9%, ADR: +6.9%, RevPar: +7.8%). The early end of Ramadan in the last third of the month was favourable more than anything else to an influx of Arab guests and, as a consequence, some very pleasing rates in the higher categories. The trend conti-nued into August. In addition, there was the Audi Cup in the first August week, which provided some high-end demand.

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The rate rose in comparison to last year by 11%, occupancy dropped by 0.7%. The RevPar lay at 11% above that of last year‘s month. After so many successful months, September was distinctly less rosy, conditioned by the absence of the bakery fair IBA (every 2 years) and the first sobering balan-ce for the Octoberfest. Occupancy unexpectedly decreased (-2%). The rate worsened by 0.4%, RevPar ended down by

-3%. The good forecasts for October were confirmed, the Octoberfest picking up speed once again and supported by the EXPO Real and the ceramitec fair, which developed unexpectedly well. The Munich hotel trade had to accept an

occupancy decline of 1%. The rate still rose though by 5% (RevPar: +4%). The cause of this distinctly downward turn in November (Occ: -1%, ADR -7%, RevPar -8%) was the autumn holidays from which the rate-strong corporate and MICE business suffered. Also absent was the very upscale elec-tronica. December remained just short of last year‘s level.

As a famous trade fair and congressional location and re-spected city travel destination, the Bavarian capital confir-med its stability in 2015, even if fluctuations during indivi-dual months prevented a consistent first place in the table.

Conclusion

A review of the year‘s events in 2015 confirms renewed stability and growth in the branch. Increasing guest arrivals and over-night figures in the safe and popular travel country Germany with its dependable standards in all areas despite a year marked by a challenging political situation on the international stage.

And who are the winners and the losers? The Cologne / Bonn conurbation, whose annual RevPar rise stands at a very respec-table 13.7%, takes its place at the top of the winner’s podium. The hoteliers even succeeded in notching up records in single months: March +40% and October +42%. The most important impulse for this result came from the Cologne Fair. The loser is just 35 kilometres away: Dusseldorf ended 2015 with a RevPar of -3.3%. Trade and industrial fairs play an important role here too. Where the North Rhine-Westphalian capital had leading fairs on 28 days in 2014, it had just 4 in 2015. Time to grit one’s teeth and carry on! 2016 promises to be a better year for fairs.

Berlin with a RevPar increase of 7% is one of the positive surprises of the year. The rate also moved upwards, finally - a trend to continue in 2016. Dresden was another city that managed to push the price level upwards in spite of adverse circumstances. They did this primarily through some successful marketing campaigns in summer. The hoteliers in Frankfurt (RevPar: +7%), Hamburg and Munich could be depended on to master 2015 with their usual stability.

A look forward to 2016: the year between Hamburg and Munich got off to a good start. Two factors cannot be planned for: neither the most experienced hotel director nor the cleverest strategy can do anything to change the weather and the inter-national political situation.

DestinationOcc Adr RevPar

Germany 1,6% 2,9% 4,5%Germany 3* Hotels 0,8% 6,0% 6,8%Germany 4* Hotels 1,4% 3,3% 4,6%Germany 5* Hotels 1,8% 2,9% 4,8%

Cologne/Bonn 3,0% 9,0% 12,2%Heidelberg 4,4% 4,1% 8,8%Dortmund 7,4% 0,7% 8,3%Berlin 3,2% 4,1% 7,7%Rostock area 0,4% 7,1% 7,3%Frankfurt 1,5% 5,9% 7,3%Munster 0,3% 5,6% 5,8%Darmstadt 3,6% 1,7% 5,2%Stuttgart 0,0% 4,8% 4,8%Wiesbaden/Mainz 2,4% 1,5% 3,9%Munich 0,1% 2,4% 2,7%Hannover 4,1% -2,1% 2,0%Mainz 1,4% 0,5% 1,9%Leipzig -0,4% 2,2% 1,8%Dresden -0,2% 2,0% 1,7%Hamburg 0,0% 1,5% 1,6%Bremen -1,7% 1,6% 0,0%Essen/Bochum 2,0% -3,5% -1,6%Nuremberg -0,8% -2,1% -3,0%Dusseldorf -0,3% -2,9% -3,2%

Data as of 08.01.2016

Wachstum

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The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland

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