regional market focus phillip securities research pte...

MICA (P) 081/12/2011 Ref No: RM2012_0190 1 of 17

Regional Market Focus

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

1 October 2012

Morning Market Commentary - STI: +0.03% to 3060.3 - MSCI SE Asia: +1.00% to 841.6 - Hang Seng: +0.38% to 20840.4 - MSCI APxJ: +0.64% to 441.3 - Euro Stoxx 50: -2.07% to 2454.3 - S&P500: -0.45% to 1440.7

MARKET OUTLOOK: By Joshua Tan, Macro Strategist & Dep. Hd Markets are still risk-off in the near term as economic data has been relentlessly bad – on Friday reports out of China, S.Korea, Thailand continue to reinforce the slowing manufacturing trajectory we are on, while US consumption and incomes was soft (see Macro Data). The overall chart patterns, however, still suggest the trend is up – S&P500, APxJ, ASEAN – which makes us very wary that equities are setting themselves up for some disappointment down the line. Clearly, markets hope that QE3 will work magic on the US, while China’s data is so bad its good in terms of hope for stimulus. We are just surprised that Equities are not much lower than where they are now, but given the unprecedented monetary intervention, who are we argue? Our SG Equity Strategist says stick to strong defensible yields with the ability to grow dividends: SIAEC, SATS, STE, SembCorp, Comfort, Singtel, all of which have outperformed the STI except for Singtel. As for Singtel, we are expecting improved monetisation of data from higher speeds and better efficiency. Best asset class given the situation? EM, Asia bonds (ETFs: N6M and O9P (SGX) ; EMB and EMHY (NYSE)) likely to head higher whether the environment is risk on or risk off. Because in the face of negative real yields when buying traditional safe havens, portfolios will be forced to expand the list of what is considered credit worthy – EM and Asia debt – will be explored where nominal GDPs tend to compound at a faster rate than debt, and yields can still be found >3.5% on 10yr issues. On this note, our ASEAN analyst Ng Weiwen has lots to say about the M’sia budget – despite what you read in their national papers about it being only mildly expansionary – we are concerned about govt finances (see Macro Data section for analysis). Essentially, while the pre-election pump priming is going to sustain the economy in the face of an external slowdown, fiscal profligacy now enters as another market risk apart from a possible poor mandate for BN. In terms of our ASEAN strategy, we prefer Phillippines (N2E:SGX), Thailand (LG6:SGX), Singapore (ES3:SGX), to Malaysia (election risk) and Indonesia (rupiah risk). Clients can access reports with preferred stock names from the “Country Strategy” list below.


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Reports & Macro Data

REPORTS: -Singapore Sector Reports: Banks, 1 Oct / Transport, 10 Sept / Telcos, 16 May / Property, 28 Aug / REITS, 5 Sept / Thematic, 21 Aug -Country Strategy: Indon, 27 Sept/ Thai, 6 Sept/ S'pore, 3 Sept/ Malaysia, 31 Aug/ China, 23Aug/ HK, 22 June -Global Macro, Asset Strategy: 26 July MACRO DATA: In Malaysia, PM Najib unveiled a slew of populist measures during the 2013 Budget last Friday, which aimed at garnering support from various interest groups (ethnic Malays, youth and low-income voters) prior to the upcoming 13th General Elections. Notably, MYR 9 bn worth of Mass Railway Project will be allocated to Bumiputera firms. The government also projects a lower deficit of 4% of GDP in 2013 (down from ~4.5% deficit this year). However, we reckon that the projected 2013 deficit target of 4% might be a tad ambitious at this juncture. Instead, we opine that the administration needs to overhaul the food and fuel subsidies system and possibly even introduce goods and services tax to curb a ballooning federal budget deficit. While these cash handouts and pre-election pump priming might help bolster domestic demand and mitigate weakness in external demand, we caution that these populist moves might push the government towards fiscal peril. Nonetheless, if BN returns to office, we do not rule out the possibility of the administration taking steps to address the fiscal sustainability. However, in the event that the incumbent Barisan Nasional fail to obtain a strong mandate, the Economic Transformation Program and Government Transformation Program - major pillars of the domestic demand story- may be confronted with headwinds, which will weigh on growth and Malaysia equity market.

In the US, consumption and income growth remained soft. Real consumption rose 0.1% m-m sa in Aug, compared to the 0.4% gain in the preceding month. PCE price index rose 0.4% m-m sa in Aug, largely due to higher energy prices. Real disposable income contracted 0.3% m-m sa in Aug, reversing from a 0.1% gain in the preceding month. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment was revised down to 78.3 in Sept final print (from 79.2 in the prelim print) but still gained 4.0pts m-m.

In the EZ, consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.7% y-y in Sept (flash estimates), compared to 2.6% in the preceding month. The uptick in inflation was largely due to higher energy prices (+9.2%) as well as Spain's increase in its value added tax (+3%pt to 21%).

In Thailand, industrial production continued to contract for the third consecutive month by 8.8% y-y, 3mma in August. By contrast, auto production continued to grow at a healthy pace (rising 44.8% y-y, 3mma in Aug). This suggests that manufacturing output ex-autos has been soft. We expect BoT to tread a fine balance. At this juncture, the balance of risks has been tilted towards growth rather than inflation. However, the hurdle for a rate cut is higher now -in spite of sluggish exports as well as industrial production- especially after BoT governor opined that a rate cut could undermine financial stability in view of robust credit expansion. We are expecting monetary policy to be biased towards an accommodative stance in 2H12 and do not rule out the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by the end of this year, especially if growth downside risks outweigh inflation upside risks. In China, HSBC PMI for manufacturing reported a slight increase to 47.9 in Sep, compared to the preliminary reading of 47.8 and the reading of 47.6 in August, indicating a contraction for the 11th consecutive month. A separate survey showed that MNI China business sentiment indicator rose to 51.35 in September, compared to the 50.31 preliminary reading and 47.54 in August. Sub index for new order rose to 52.30, compared to 47.50 in August. Production rose to 49.68 from 44.69 in August. The discrepancy in HSBC PMI and MNI indicator might be a sign that the government’s earlier stimulus is gradually working but the scale is still not enough. Going forward, we expect the government to conduct further loosening such as fiscal stimulus and RRR cut. In South Korea, industrial production fell by 0.7% m-m in August, a third consecutive monthly fall, after the 1.9% m-m fall in July. Shipments fell by 2.9% m-m in August, a faster drop compared to 1.9% m-m in July. Inventory rose by 4.7% m-m, after the 0.1% m-m gain in July. The underperforming readings imply a weak domestic and external demand. The government is holding a benchmark rate at 3.0% and still has scope for further cuts if the economy further deteriorates. In Japan, total store sales rose by 0.2% m-m in August, the first gain in 3 months, compared to July’s 1.9% m-m fall. Retail sales rose by 1.5% m-m, reversing the 1.5% m-m drop in July. CPI fell by 0.4% y-y in August, the same as it was in July, implying the government fails to achieve the target of reversing the decades long deflation, which it announced earlier this year. The central bank unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchasing program two weeks ago, aiming to boost Japan’s economic recovery amid a backdrop of faltering global economy and reverse the trend of strong yen.

Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd


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Singapore The Singapore Market ended flat at 3,060.3pts (+0.03%) on moderate volume of

1.6bn shares worth S$1.5bn. During an EGM on Friday, the shareholders of Fraser and Neave voted in favour

of Heineken’s offer to acquire their interests in Asia Pacific Breweries (APB). Following completion of this transaction, Heineken would make a mandatory general offer for the rest of APB’s shares.

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) proposed new share allocations in order to raise

retail participation during IPOs. The key proposals would be for a minimum of 5% allocation to the public subscription tranche, which could be increased when the demand for shares in the tranche exceeds prescribed thresholds.

We maintain our view that there is limited upside for the STI, with 3,088 as the

key level of resistance for the benchmark index.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 3060.34 0.91 0.03P/E (x) 12.31P/Bv (x) 1.41

3.01Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

9/28 12/28 3/28 6/28 9/28

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand The benchmark SET index rose to test a key psychological level of 1300 but

failed to break through before it finished the session at 1298.79 points in moderate turnover last Fri.

Last Fri, the SET index rose to test a key barrier of 1300 but failed to break

though. Even though there is potential for a retest of this key resistance level, we think a breakout above this barrier is unlikely for the meantime. Fears of global economic slowdown and European debt crisis also remained causes of concern especially the situation in Spain. Key economic data out of major economies failed to show signs of strong recovery. The Dow industrials fell last Fri on disappointing US economic data. In addition, the approaching third-quarter corporate earnings season should further add more volatility to the market, in our view. Overall we expect Thai stocks will move in a narrow range today and trading may be subdued as several stock markets in Asia including China, Korea and Hong Kong are closed today for National Day holiday.

The short-term strategy is to sell on rallies and buy on dips. We also advise

investors to gradually book profits on rise around resistance levels. Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 1303-1313 and support at 1295-

1287.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1298.79 12.68 0.99P/E (x) 18.36P/Bv (x) 2.27

3.45Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

9/28 12/28 3/28 6/28 9/28

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

Most stocks listed on the Indonesia stock exchange finished higher Friday (28/09), trailing broad advances on Asian markets after Spain announced its budget plan. The Jakarta composite index rose 37.537 points, or 0.89%, to close at 4,262.561. The advance included eight of the 9 major industry groups, led by consumer goods sector that jumped 1.96%. Property, real estate, and construction sector followed suit with 1.73%, and trade and services sector added 1.48%. Blue-chip stocks also rose, with shares of cement producer Semen Gresik (SMGR +3.58%) fared best among the 45 large cap stocks. The LQ45 index climbed 6.530 points, or 0.90%, to close at 731.774. For every stock declining, almost two climbed Friday on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, where 3.379 billion shares worth IDR 3.966 trillion traded on the regular board. Foreign market participants posted net purchases worth IDR 534.13 billion, the largest net buy this week.

We expect the Jakarta composite index to decline today, as concerns about

slowing economies dominated market sentiments after weaker manufacturing data from China and Japan. The JCI will likely trade with support at 4,150 and resistance at 4,245.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 4262.56 37.54 0.89P/E (x) 19.00P/Bv (x) 2.92

2.09Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

9/28 12/28 3/28 6/28 9/28

Source: Bloomberg


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Sri Lanka Having commenced on a flat note on Monday, market demonstrated gradual

appreciations in terms of indices, stock prices along with turnover levels on latter part of the week to complete the delightful September month on fruitful manner. Participations of retail, Institutional and high net worth segments to the market activities were stunning during the week.

All Share Price Index gained by 61.92 points (1.05%) to close the week at

5,971.99 and Milanka Price Index stood at 5,645.95, soared by 111.64 points (2.02%). S&P SL20 Index also increased by 62.82 points (1.98%) and ended the week at 3,240.98. Weekly turnover exceeded LKR 10Bn for the second time for the month, which was a 39.50% up against the recorded LKR 7.19Bn turnover in previous week. LKR 2.46Bn worth foreign purchases are included for the weekly turnover and the resulted net foreign inflow for the week was LKR 1.41Bn, reflecting 135.86% increase compared to the previous week supporting the currency to reach below LKR 130/- against USD on Thursday after a considerable period. The growth in net foreign inflow clearly indicates the foreigners’ hunt on blue chip counters.

Total traded volume for the week was 333.5Mn shares, 16.35% reduction

compared to the previous week. Total market capitalization stood at LKR 2.27Tn. The market’s PER(X) and PBV(X) stood at 16.17 and 2.12 respectively at the weekly closure. The positive sentiments were further elevated by T-bill yields on Wednesday accounted heavy dip across all three maturities. One year risk free rate of the country dropped by 28 basis points to 13.02.

Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 5971.99 22.57 0.38P/E (x) 12.48P/Bv (x) 1.83

2.34

Dividend Yield

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

9/28 12/28 3/28 6/28 9/28

Source: Bloomberg

Australia

A flat day on the market on Friday with most of the focus on tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting and whether or not there will be a rate cut.

The ASX has opened flat today and a quiet day is expected as a number of

states have public holidays. The banks have opened in positive territory. International markets were lower on Friday night and the AUD has fallen with

expectation of an interest rate reduction gaining momentum.

Close +/- % +/-S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4387.02 2.85 0.06P/E (x) 16.66P/Bv (x) 1.75

6.51Dividend Yield

STANDARD & POORS/ ASX 200 INDEX

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

9/28 12/28 3/28 6/28 9/28

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong

Market is closed today. Shares of ZTE Corp <0763.HK>, the world's sixth-largest handsets maker, rose

more than 6 percent to hit a more than two-month intraday high on Friday as smartphone demand in China is forecast by analysts to remain strong.

(Source: Reuters)

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 20840.38 78.09 0.38P/E (x) 10.49P/Bv (x) 1.41

3.41Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

9/28 12/28 3/28 6/28 9/28

Source: Bloomberg


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Singapore

Singapore Banking Sector – Update

Singapore’s total DBU loans outstanding registered y-y growth of 19.2% to S$468.8 billion in Aug 2012. Business loans and Consumer loans reported growth of 22.3% y-y and 15.1% y-y respectively.

M-m, loans growth in Aug 2012 was higher. Total loans grew 2.3%, compared to 1.3% in Jul 2012. Business loans grew 3.0% m-m, while Consumer loans grew by 1.3%.

We are underweight on the Singapore Banking Sector, and maintain our preference for DBS over UOB and OCBC.

Thailand

Home Product Center – Company Update Recommendation: TRADING BUY Previous close: Bt13.30 (27 Sept 2012) Fair value: Bt15.50

We expect 3QCY12 net profit growth of 24.6% y-y and 5.4% q-q.

Net profit in the first nine month of the year would remain at low level but we believe an upbeat 4QCY12 outlook to drive whole year net profit to meet our forecast.

We expect CY13 net profit to slow down but it would still see growth of as high as 26.25 y-y.

Rolling forward to our CY13 valuation, our pre-XD target price arrives at Bt15.50/share and post-XD of Bt13/share. We rate HMPRO shares ‘TRADING BUY’.

Khon Kaen Sugar Industry – Company Update

Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt12.90 Fair value: Bt15.10

We expect KSL’s 4QFY12 results to be softer than 3QFY12 as a result of shrinking sales volumes due to the end of the sugar

year.

Looking ahead into FY13, sales volumes are set to rise thanks to earlier-than-scheduled production startup at its new plant in Loei Province.

For investment in new ventures, the focus will be on businesses relating to existing operations and new downstream businesses. We rate KSL shares a ‘BUY’ with a target price of Bt15.10/ share.

http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/SectorStrategy/SG/bank100112.pdf

http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/ResearchCoverage/TH/thhmpro100112.pdf

http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/ResearchCoverage/TH/thksl100112.pdf


1 October 2012

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Market News

US The United States is "drowning in unemployment," its economy is running at stall speed and inflation is "not a problem," but easier

monetary policy is not the answer, one of the Federal Reserve's most hawkish policymakers said on Friday. "We've had a recovery that is quite disappointing," Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told a group at the University of Texas at Dallas. But without more certainty on tax policy and regulation, he said, "all the monetary accommodation in the world" will not get businesses hiring again. (Source: Reuters)

The Dollar Index fell by the most since the first quarter of 2011 after the European Central Bank pledged to protect the euro from

unravelling and the Federal Reserve committed to reduce unemployment via open-ended debt buying, which may debase the US currency. (Source: BT Online)

Singapore The government will consider tightening the foreign workforce inflow further in order to push Singapore companies toward higher

productivity business models and away from labour-intensive growth, said Acting Manpower Minister Tan Chuan-Jin yesterday. "We will monitor closely over the next few months and take further measures down the road, if needed," he said in a post on the Ministry of Manpower blog. The government will, however, rein in foreign manpower growth at a pace businesses can adjust to. "If needed, we will tighten foreign workforce controls further. Companies must do their part and transform," said Mr Tan, who started his blog post acknowledging that Singapore companies are concerned about government overtightening. (Source: BT Online)

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) has released a consultation paper aimed at making initial public offerings (IPOs) on the mainboard

more accessible to retail investors. Two key proposals are being made - raising the minimum allotment of public subscription to 5 per cent of IPO invitation shares, and the introduction of a claw-back mechanism that acts to increase the public subscription proportion to between 10 and 20 per cent if demand for the stock is red-hot. In turn, if demand is low for a particular listing, a "reverse claw-back mechanism" is activated so that shares meant for public subscription can be transferred back to the placement tranche. (Source: BT Online)

Trading of both physical and paper oil here remained subdued in Q3, continuing the trend earlier this year, though Singapore's refineries

surprised on the upside by recording higher margins in the July-September period, industry players said. "It was not as bleak or pessimistic as thought for the refining industry here. Thanks to capacity closures of older plants in Europe, as well as some closures in Japan, plus a fire at Amuay, Venezuela's largest refinery, Singapore margins were up in Q3," a trading executive told The Business Times. (Source: BT Online)

Hong Kong Former Communist Party chief of Chongqing, Bo Xilai, has been expelled from the Communist Party of China and his public office,

according to a decision made at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. The meeting also decided to transfer Bo's suspected law violations and relevant clues to judicial organs, the agency said. (Source: http://www.thestandard.com.hk)

Thailand Foreign investors bought a net Bt4,056.82mn of Thai equities last Fri. (Source: Bisnews) The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) has sought cooperation from the Royal Irrigation Department to siphon water out of

Khlong Bueng Bua in a bid to reduce water levels by 50 cm to relieve water pressure on more than 30-year old flood prevention dyke at Lat Krabang Industrial Estate, adding that it would also push for construction of permanent floodwalls at six industrial estates, which is expected to be completed in May 2013. (Source: Post Today)

Several stock markets in Asia including China, Korea and Hong Kong are closed today. Note that Chinese bourses will be closed for

National Day holiday throughout this week.

Indonesia The government is projected to only be able to maintain the 2012 current account deficit in the range of 2.2-2.5 percent of the Gross

Domestic Product (GDP), higher than the suggestion from International Monetary Fund (IMF) of two percent in a report published Wednesday. Efforts to reduce the deficit have been a concern of the government and Bank Indonesia. The government and Bank Indonesia have been trying to control current account deficit at below three percent of GDP. Currently, the account deficit reaches 3.1 percent of GDP. To reduce the deficit, the trade balance deficit is reduced through the tightening of dumping policy that will suppress the import of goods. From the balance of services aspect, the government will seek to use national logistics in trading activities and more insurance activities through domestic insurance. Data from Bank Indonesia shows the current account began to deficit in the fourth quarter of 2011 with USD 1.6 billion or 0.7 percent of GDP. In the first quarter of 2012, the deficit increased to USD 3.2 billion or 1.5 percent of GDP, and again increased to USD 6.9 billion or 3.1 percent of GDP in the second quarter. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

The Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) estimates the revision of tax allowance rule in the Minister of Finance Regulation (PMK) No.

144/PMK.011/2012 will encourage regional investment. BKPM, said the regulation will make it easier for investors to set up businesses outside Java. The provision of the tax allowance facility can also affect the prices of goods in other regions which have been more expensive than the prices in the island of Java because of high transportation costs. In addition, the government expects this facility to encourage investments in industries oriented to the development of local resources. In the PMK 144/2012, the industrial sectors which


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are eligible to receive incentive of tax allowance Income Tax are increased from 38 to 129 sub-sector industries. The incentives provide income tax reduction of up to 30 percent over six years or five percent annually. Data from BKPM shows that in the first half of 2012, investment realization in the Java corridor was the highest with IDR 79.9 trillion (USD 8.30 billion) or 53.9 percent of the total national investment. The Sumatra corridor has an investment of IDR 24.2 trillion or 16.4 percent, Kalimantan IDR 21.4 trillion or 14.5 percent, Sulawesi IDR 9 trillion or 6.1 percent, Maluku-Papua IDR 7 trillion or 4.7percent, and Bali-Nusa Tenggara IDR 6.6 trillion or 4.5 percent. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

Sri Lanka Consumer prices in Sri Lanka's capital rose 9.1 percent in the 12-months to September 2012 slowing from 9.5 percent in August, while

the index fell in absolute terms in the month. The Colombo Consumer Price Index fell absolutely for the second month running to 165.5 points from 165.7 points a month earlier. In August the index fell 1.0 point. The food and beverages sub index (with alcohol excluded due to the current administration's Mat hater thither or anti-alcohol policy) fell 0.3 points to 185 points in the month, while non-foods rose 0.1 percent. The moving average of the index, a lagging indicator averaged across two years continued to rise to 6.5 percent in September from 6.3 percent in August. Sri Lanka's inflation spiked amid a balance of payments crisis triggered by heavy money printing to accommodate state credit taken to finance energy subsidies by the state which sent the rupee plunging to 134 to the US dollar from 110 a year earlier. However after energy prices and interest rates were raised after two billion US dollars of foreign reserves were lost and credit has slowed allowing inflation to moderate. Inflation has also slowed after previous balance of payments crisis as slowing or contracting credit is supported by a gently appreciating exchange rate to bring down prices of traded goods. The rupee has so far appreciated to about 129.50 to the US dollar from lows of 134.00 to the US dollar in mid-2012. (lbo.lk)

Australia A consortium including Korean steel giant POSCO has tried to take advantage of low iron ore prices, lodging a takeover bid for Arrium

(ARI), the company previously known as OneSteel. Arrium has rejected the offer which sought to buy all Arrium shares for 75 cents per share: about 20 cents higher than Arrium's closing price on Friday. POSCO was joined in the bid by commodities trader Noble group, Korean pension funds and several other Korean investors. (Source: Sydney Morning Herald)

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) says its reached a milestone as it pursues its iron ore production expansion in the Pilbara region of

Western Australia. The miner has processed the first ore through its 25 million tonne per annum Christmas Creek 2 plant, the second ore processing facility at the Christmas Creek iron ore mine. CEO Nev Power says the development puts Fortescue a step closer to reaching its 155 million tonne per annum production target by the end of the first quarter 2013. Mineral Resources Limited’s (MIN) wholly owned subsidiary Crushing Services International has a build, own and operate contract with Fortescue at the Christmas Creek plants and has also welcomed the development. (Source: Finance News Network)


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Dollar Index +0.23% Gold 1,772.10 -0.38%

Crude oil +0.37% US Treasury 10yr Yield 1.628 -0.01%

DJI -0.36% S&P 500 INDEX 1,440.67 -0.45%

SHCOMP +1.45%

Source: Bloomberg

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

70

75

80

85

Oct-1

1

Dec-1

1

Feb-1

2

Apr-1

2

Jun-1

2

Aug

-12

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Oct-1

1

Dec-11

Feb

-12

Apr-1

2

Jun-1

2

Aug-12

70

80

90

100

110

120

Oct-1

1

Dec-11

Feb

-12

Apr-1

2

Jun-1

2

Aug-12

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

Oct-1

1

Dec-11

Feb

-12

Apr-1

2

Jun-1

2

Aug-12

2000

2300

2600

Oct-1

1

Dec-11

Feb

-12

Apr-1

2

Jun-1

2

Aug-12

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Oct-1

1

Dec-11

Feb

-12

Apr-1

2

Jun-1

2

Aug-12


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Source: Bloomberg

World Index

JCI 0.89% 4,262.56

HSI 0.38% 20,840.38

KLCI 0.54% 1,636.66

NIKKEI -0.53% 8,823.08

KOSPI 0.38% 1,996.21

SET 0.99% 1,298.79

SHCOMP 1.45% 2,086.17

SENSEX 0.99% 18,762.74

ASX 0.14% 4,393.20

FTSE 100 -0.65% 5,742.07

DOW -0.36% 13,437.13

S&P 500 -0.45% 1,440.67

NASDAQ -0.65% 3,116.23

COLOMBO 0.38% 5,971.99

STI 0.03% 3,060.34


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Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('k) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)

SINGAP TELECOMM 3.20 +0.00 +0.000 126,304 GMG GLOBAL LTD 0.14 +4.62 +0.006 70,516

FRASER AND NEAVE 8.88 -0.11 -0.010 109,348 THAI BEVERAGE PCL 0.41 -2.41 -0.010 69,024

DBS GROUP HLDGS 14.39 +0.14 +0.020 98,147 SKY ONE HOLDINGS LTD 0.32 +0.00 +0.000 57,444

KEPPEL CORP LTD 11.40 +0.09 +0.010 60,892 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD 0.66 -0.75 -0.005 53,721

GLOBAL LOGISTIC 2.51 +0.00 +0.000 45,561 YOMA STRATEGIC HLDGS LTD 0.50 +3.13 +0.015 44,995

LIONGOLD CORP LT 1.17 -3.32 -0.040 40,347 IPCO INTERNATIONAL LTD 0.02 +0.00 +0.000 42,033

UNITED OVERSEAS 19.65 -0.35 -0.070 38,440 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD 3.20 +0.00 +0.000 39,362

OCBC BANK 9.34 -0.11 -0.010 36,169 LIONGOLD CORP LTD 1.17 -3.32 -0.040 34,482

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO 0.66 -0.75 -0.005 35,715 CSC HOLDINGS LTD 0.13 +1.63 +0.002 28,864

WILMAR INTERNATI 3.25 +0.62 +0.020 31,750 SIN HENG HEAVY MACHINERY 0.22 +4.76 +0.010 28,472

Hong Kong


CHINA CONST BA-H 5.38 +0.56 +0.03 1,745,139 FOREFRONT GROUP 0.06 +20.83 +0.01 331,580

CHINA MOBILE 85.95 -0.29 -0.25 1,548,958 CHINA CONST BA-H 5.38 +0.56 +0.03 323,398

IND & COMM BK-H 4.58 +1.33 +0.06 1,002,845 BANK OF CHINA-H 2.95 +0.68 +0.02 243,385

PING AN INSURA-H 58.60 -0.93 -0.55 939,287 IND & COMM BK-H 4.58 +1.33 +0.06 219,829

TENCENT HOLDINGS 264.20 +0.76 +2.00 894,652 LAI SUN DEV 0.18 +2.87 +0.01 168,036

HUTCHISON WHAMPO 75.20 +1.28 +0.95 818,505 AGRICULTURAL-H 3.02 +0.00 +0.00 131,196

AIA GROUP LTD 28.90 +0.17 +0.05 813,522 G-RESOURCES GROU 0.34 +6.35 +0.02 122,976

SUN HUNG KAI PRO 113.60 +0.44 +0.50 764,632 GOME ELECTRICAL 0.82 -2.38 -0.02 88,537

HONG KONG EXCHNG 117.20 +2.36 +2.70 762,646 GEELY AUTOMOBILE 2.94 +1.73 +0.05 77,382

BANK OF CHINA-H 2.95 +0.68 +0.02 718,234 FRASERS PROPERTY 0.43 -2.27 -0.01 74,864

Thailand


BANK AYUDHYA PCL 31.25 +3.31 +1.00 2,147,378 KRISDA MAHANAKOR 0.37 -2.63 -0.01 980,267

CHAROEN POK FOOD 33.50 +2.29 +0.75 1,951,027 BANGKOK LAND PCL 1.25 -5.30 -0.07 571,006

CP ALL PCL 35.50 +2.90 +1.00 1,455,648 PROJECT PLANNING 2.30 -15.44 -0.42 310,999

SIAM COMM BK PCL 168.50 +1.51 +2.50 1,253,081 JASMINE INTL PCL 3.88 +0.52 +0.02 222,043

KASIKORNBANK PCL 182.50 +1.39 +2.50 1,042,801 TMB BANK PCL 1.82 +0.55 +0.01 199,763

ADVANCED INFO 214.00 +0.47 +1.00 990,994 NATURAL PARK PCL 0.02 -33.33 -0.01 161,303

PTT EXPL & PROD 162.50 +0.62 +1.00 959,848 TRUE CORP PCL 6.10 +1.67 +0.10 130,928

PTT PCL 329.00 +0.00 +0.00 910,653 MDX PLC 6.90 +6.15 +0.40 114,623

PROJECT PLANNING 2.30 -15.44 -0.42 894,321 SAHAVIRYA STEEL 0.60 +0.00 +0.00 101,062

JASMINE INTL PCL 3.88 +0.52 +0.02 866,881 NATION MULTIMEDI 1.43 -2.72 -0.04 90,269

Indonesia

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('mn) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)

ASTRA INTERNATIO 7,400 1.37 100.00 283,922 PAKUWON JATI TBK 270 10.20 25.00 190,706

BANK RAKYAT INDO 7,450 0.00 0.00 194,270 BERAU COAL ENERG 175 1.16 2.00 178,720

TELEKOMUNIKASI 9,450 1.07 100.00 169,138 ALAM SUTERA REAL 495 -1.00 -5.00 166,387

BANK MANDIRI 8,200 -0.61 -50.00 166,484 ENERGI MEGA PERS 90 0.00 0.00 138,328

INDOFOOD SUKSES 5,650 2.73 150.00 147,103 SIERAD PRODUCE 60 1.69 1.00 138,152

AKR CORPORINDO 4,250 4.29 175.00 121,998 EXPLOITASI ENERG 310 12.73 35.00 126,186

PERUSAHAAN GAS N 4,125 0.00 0.00 120,706 TRADA MARITIME 770 0.00 0.00 113,544

UNITED TRACTORS 20,700 0.73 150.00 113,179 BHAKTI INVESTAMA 495 1.02 5.00 108,525

SEMEN GRESIK TBK 14,450 3.58 500.00 112,150 BUMI RESOURCES 730 0.00 0.00 104,527

GLOBAL MEDIACOM 2,050 3.54 70.00 97,446 SUGIH ENERGY 98 3.16 3.00 96,516

Sri Lanka


COMMERCIAL BK 116.00 0.87 1.00 741,582 DUNAMIS CAPITAL 14.40 2.86 0.40 7,153

JOHN KEELLS HLDG 229.10 1.82 4.10 272,614 COMMERCIAL BK 116.00 0.87 1.00 6,446

DUNAMIS CAPITAL 14.40 2.86 0.40 107,253 TOUCHWOOD INV PL 21.30 11.52 2.20 5,095

DIPPED PRODUCTS 109.50 5.29 5.50 105,797 ASIRI HOSPITALS 11.50 0.00 0.00 4,704

TOUCHWOOD INV PL 21.30 11.52 2.20 104,705 ACCESS ENGINEERI 21.80 6.86 1.40 3,701

ACCESS ENGINEERI 21.80 6.86 1.40 78,947 SEYLAN DEVELOPME 11.00 8.91 0.90 3,643

ASIRI HOSPITALS 11.50 0.00 0.00 54,183 SWARNAMAHAL FINA 5.10 -1.92 -0.10 1,807

NATL DVLP BANK P 149.40 3.18 4.60 49,593 MULLER & PHIPPS 2.20 10.00 0.20 1,426

SEYLAN DEVELOPME 11.00 8.91 0.90 39,252 FIRST CAPITAL HL 15.00 7.14 1.00 1,293

HATTON NATL BANK 166.00 0.73 1.20 36,703 PC HOUSE LTD 7.50 4.17 0.30 1,228

Source: Bloomberg


1 October 2012

11 of 17

Australia


BHP BILLITON LTD 33.040 0.06 0.02 647,424 TIGER RESOURCES LTD 0.350 0.00 0.00 181,104

COMMONW BK AUSTR 55.770 -0.11 -0.06 499,020 OROYA MINING LTD 0.005 66.67 0.00 95,522

WESTPAC BANKING 24.850 0.20 0.05 334,514 TELSTRA CORP LTD 3.920 0.00 0.00 77,485

AUST AND NZ BANK 24.750 0.32 0.08 306,604 AAQ HOLDINGS LTD 0.008 60.00 0.00 50,547

RIO TINTO LTD 53.360 -0.43 -0.23 436,743 VOYAGER RESOURCES LTD 0.024 4.35 0.00 40,246

NATL AUST BANK 25.490 0.24 0.06 285,801 ABM RESOURCES NL 0.060 7.14 0.00 32,269

TELSTRA CORP 3.920 0.00 0.00 277,544 BLUESCOPE STEEL LTD 0.420 5.00 0.02 31,923

NEWCREST MINING 29.140 3.33 0.94 220,428 FORTESCUE METALS GROUP 3.490 -0.85 -0.03 26,922

CSL LTD 46.000 0.00 0.00 139,435 GOLD ANOMALY LTD 0.004 0.00 0.00 25,317

WOOLWORTHS LTD 28.760 -0.86 -0.25 120,899 MARMOTA ENERGY LTD 0.068 -9.33 -0.01 25,014

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Price of S$1 Price of US$1

GOLD SPOT (US$/OZ) -0.38 -6.65 1,772.10 0.7854 1.0386

SILVER SPOT (US$/OZ) -0.82 -0.28 34.54 0.8022 0.9837

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Price (US$/bbl) +0.37 +0.34 92.19 0.6335 1.2876

0.5050 1.6153

0.8157 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last 5.1280 6.2858

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard (MYR/kg) +1.10 +9.50 869.75 6.3247 7.7543

PALM OIL (MYR/Metric Tonne) -1.38 -33.50 2,396.00 63.5500 77.9200

907.2947 1112.5700

Index % Chg Chg Last 2.4969 3.0638

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.23 +0.18 80.12 25.1407 30.8200

Source: Bloomberg

CANADIAN DOLLAR

EURO

BRITISH POUND

Currencies

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Commodities & Currencies

JAPANESE YEN

KOREAN WON

MALAYSIAN RINGGIT

THAI BAHT

US DOLLAR

CHINA RENMINBI

HONG KONG DOLLAR

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08

6 Months 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13

2 Years 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26

3 Years 0.30 0.33 0.34 0.36

5 Years 0.62 0.64 0.67 0.68

10 Years 1.63 1.65 1.75 1.65

30 Years 2.82 2.84 2.94 2.76

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths)

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs)

US Treasury Yields

1.56

1.40

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://w w w .valubond.com


1 October 2012

12 of 17

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

10/1/2012 Markit US PMI Final Sep -- 51.5 10/2/2012 Electronics Sector Index Sep 50.5 50.7

10/1/2012 ISM Manufacturing Sep 50 49.6 10/2/2012 Purchasing Managers Index Sep 49.5 49.1

10/1/2012 ISM Prices Paid Sep 55.5 54 10/3/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 3-Oct -- 63000

10/1/2012 Construction Spending MoM Aug 0.50% -0.90% 10/3/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 3-Oct -- 88500

10/2/2012 ISM New York Sep -- 51.4 10/3/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 3-Oct -- 89990

10/3/2012 Total Vehicle Sales Sep 14.40M 14.46M 10/8/2012 Foreign Reserves Sep -- $246.18B

10/3/2012 Domestic Vehicle Sales Sep 11.40M 11.54M 11-18 OCT GDP (annualized) (QoQ) 3Q A -- -0.70%

10/3/2012 MBA Mortgage Applications 28-Sep -- 2.80% 11-18 OCT GDP (YoY) 3Q A -- 2.00%

10/3/2012 ADP Employment Change Sep 140K 201K 10/12/2012 Retail Sales (YoY) Aug -- -2.90%

10/3/2012 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep 53.2 53.7 10/15/2012 Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) Aug -- -0.70%

10/4/2012 Challenger Job Cuts YoY Sep -- -36.90% 10/15/2012 Retail Sales (MoM) sa Aug -- 0.40%

10/4/2012 RBC Consumer Outlook Index Oct -- 50.4 10/17/2012 Electronic Exports (YoY) Sep -- -11.00%

10/4/2012 Initial Jobless Claims 29-Sep 365K 359K 10/17/2012 Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY) Sep -- -10.60%

10/4/2012 Continuing Claims 22-Sep -- 3271K 10/17/2012 Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM) Sep -- -9.10%

10/4/2012 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 30-Sep -- -39.6 10/17/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 17-Oct -- --


10/1/2012 Consumer Price Index (YoY) Sep 3.29% 2.69% 10/4/2012 Retail Sales - Value (YoY) Aug -- 3.80%

10/1/2012 Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM) Sep 0.20% 0.40% 10/4/2012 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY) Aug -- 1.30%

10/1/2012 Core CPI (YoY) Sep 1.80% 1.76% 10/8/2012 Purchasing Managers Index Sep -- 50.5

10/2/2012 Consumer Confidence Economic Sep -- 68.4 10/8/2012 Foreign Currency Reserves Sep -- $298.2B

10/5/2012 Foreign Reserves 28-Sep -- $183.4B 10/18/2012 Unemployment Rate SA Sep -- 3.20%

10/5/2012 Forw ard Contracts 28-Sep -- $25.3B 10/18/2012 Composite Interest Rate Sep -- 0.39%

10/12/2012 Foreign Reserves 5-Oct -- -- 10/22/2012 CPI - Composite Index (YoY) Sep -- 3.70%

10/12/2012 Forw ard Contracts 5-Oct -- -- 10/25/2012 Exports YoY% Sep -- 0.60%

16-18 OCT Total Car Sales Sep -- -- 10/25/2012 Imports YoY% Sep -- 0.90%

10/17/2012 Benchmark Interest Rate 17-Oct -- 3.00% 10/25/2012 Trade Balance Sep -- -36.0B

10/19/2012 Foreign Reserves 12-Oct -- -- 10/31/2012 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY) Sep -- --

10/19/2012 Forw ard Contracts 12-Oct -- -- 10/31/2012 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY) Sep -- --

19-26 OCT Customs Exports (YoY) Sep -- -6.95% 10/31/2012 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY) Sep -- --

19-26 OCT Customs Imports (YoY) Sep -- -8.78% 10/31/2012 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$ Sep -- -14.4B

19-26 OCT Customs Trade Balance Sep -- -$1021M 11/1/2012 Retail Sales - Value (YoY) Sep -- --

Thailand Hong Kong

US Singapore

Economic Announcement

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg


1 October 2012

13 of 17


10/1/2012 Inflation (YoY) Sep -- 4.58% 10-19 OCT Exports YoY% Aug -- -17.40%

10/1/2012 Inflation NSA (MoM) Sep -- 0.95% 10-19 OCT Imports YoY% Aug -- -24.90%

10/1/2012 Core Inflation (YoY) Sep -- 4.16% 10/16/2012 Repurchase Rate 16-Oct -- 7.75%

10/1/2012 Exports (YoY) Aug -- -7.30% 10/16/2012 Reverse Repo Rate 16-Oct -- 9.75%

10/1/2012 Total Imports (YoY) Aug -- 0.80% 10/31/2012 CPI Moving Average (YoY) Oct -- --

10/1/2012 Total Trade Balance Aug -- -$177M 10/31/2012 CPI (YoY) Oct -- --

01-05 OCT Danareksa Consumer Confidence Sep -- 92.3 11/8/2012 Repurchase Rate 8-Nov -- --

01-02 OCT Consumer Confidence Index Sep -- 115.7 11/8/2012 Reverse Repo Rate 8-Nov -- --

03-08 OCT Foreign Reserves Sep -- $108.99B 09-20 NOV Exports YoY% Sep -- --

03-08 OCT Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) Sep -- 1008.23T 09-20 NOV Imports YoY% Sep -- --

07-13 OCT Money Supply - M1 (YoY) Aug -- 20.70% 11/30/2012 CPI Moving Average (YoY) Nov -- --

07-13 OCT Money Supply - M2 (YoY) Aug -- 19.10% 11/30/2012 CPI (YoY) Nov -- --

10/11/2012 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 11-Oct -- 5.75% 12/6/2012 Repurchase Rate 6-Dec -- --

12-20 OCT Total Local Auto Sales Sep -- 76373 12/6/2012 Reverse Repo Rate 6-Dec -- --

12-20 OCT Total Motorcycle Sales Sep -- 429236 10-12 DEC Exports YoY% Oct -- --

Date Statistic For Survey Prior

10/1/2012 AiG Performance of Mfg Index Sep -- 45.3

10/1/2012 TD Securities Inflation MoM% Sep -- 0.60%

10/1/2012 TD Securities Inflation YoY% Sep -- 2.20%

10/2/2012 RPData-Rismark House PX Actual Sep -- 0.00%

10/2/2012 RBA CASH TARGET 2-Oct 3.50% 3.50%

10/2/2012 RBA Commodity Price Index Au Sep -- 90.3

10/2/2012RBA Commodity Index SDR

YoY%Sep -- -13.70%

10/3/2012AiG Performance of Service

IndexSep -- 42.4

10/3/2012 HIA New Home Sales (MoM) Aug -- -5.60%

10/3/2012 Trade Balance Aug -685M -556M

10/4/2012 Building Approvals (MoM) Aug 4.70% -17.30%

10/4/2012 Building Approvals (YoY) Aug -14.30% -10.60%

10/4/2012 Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) Aug 0.40% -0.80%

10/5/2012 AiG Perf of Construction Index Sep -- 32.2

10/8/2012 ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) Sep -- -2.30%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

Australia

Sri Lanka

Source: Bloomberg

PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

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absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

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