refer to important disclosures at the end of this...

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd,its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates are the distributors of the research reports, please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors,Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore SA: SUNIL TIRUMALAI

CMP: Rs 489 as of (January 21, 2020)

TP: Rs 545 (▲) 12 months

Rating: BUY (■) Upside: 11.4 %

India Equity Research | BFSI

January 21, 2020

Result Update

ICICI Pru Life Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Non-linked business gaining traction; maintain Buy

Change in Estimates

EPS Chg FY20E/FY21E (%) (6.2)/(9.4)

Target Price change (%) 0.9

Target Period (Months) 12

Previous Reco BUY

Emkay vs Consensus

EPS Estimates

FY20E FY21E

Emkay 8.1 9.9

Consensus 9.3 10.8

Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 540

Stock Details

Bloomberg Code IPRU IN

Face Value (Rs) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 1,436

52 Week H/L 538 / 277

M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 702 / 9.87

Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 2,595,485

Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 18.2

Shareholding Pattern Dec '19

Promoters 75.0%

FIIs 13.3%

DIIs 5.5%

Public and Others 6.2%

Price Performance

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

Absolute (2) 3 29 39

Rel. to Nifty (1) (2) 21 25

IPRU reported in-line results with VNB margin of 21% in 9MFY20. Absolute VNB growth

was markedly strong at 33.1% yoy to reach Rs4.26bn, supported by strong growth in

limited pay protection policies which are relatively lower-margin vs. regular pay policies.

APE at Rs20.4bn (+2.7% yoy and 38.6% qoq) was 2.9% ahead of our estimates. However,

GWP of Rs82.6bn (+9.2% yoy) was lower than our expectation of Rs83.6bn due to slower

growth in renewals at 4.4% yoy.

13th month Persistency contracted by 100bps yoy to 83.1% on weakness in the linked

business, particularly to a specific cohort analyzed using analytics. Persistency for 49th

month (important from a ULIP perspective) was higher by 110bps yoy at 64.3%.

We believe IPRU’s strategy has started to stabilize with traction across non-linked

business, including protection, annuity and participatory products. Maintain Buy/OW in

EAP with a revised TP of Rs545 at 2.4x Sep’21E EV (earlier Rs540 at 2.4x Sep’21E EV).

Relative price chart

Source: Bloomberg This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation:

Neeraj Toshniwal

[email protected]

+91 22 6612 1284

Anand Dama

[email protected]

+91 22 6624 2480

-20

-6

8

22

36

50

250

310

370

430

490

550

Jan-19 Mar-19May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19Nov-19 Jan-20

%Rs

ICICI Pru Life (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)

What we liked?

1) IPRU launched two new products in Q3FY20: Protection - IPRU Precious Life covering

people with disabilities, and Par Plan - Lakshya Lifelong Income - regular lifelong income with

guaranteed capital protection; 2) It is looking at diversifying product mix with a focus on the

non-linked business, including, annuity, protection and the Par business; 3) Savings

persistency assumptions incorporated at 82.5% in EV and VNB are below the current run-

rate of 83.1% as of 9MFY20; 4) Savings business’ costs (on APE) came down to 11.1% in

9MFY20 from 12.0% in 9MFY19. Overall cost moved to 16.6% from 15.4% in 9MFY19, with

higher share of protection in the overall mix; and 5) In 9MFY20, IPRU’s VNB margin was

stable sequentially at 21% vs. our expectation of 21.1%. Margin came in higher by 400bps

YTD, supported by the share of the Protection segment which constituted 14.1% of the mix in

9MFY20. The Protection segment registered 36.9% yoy growth in Q3FY20, while the Annuity

business grew +2x yoy in Q3FY20.

What we did not like?

1) As a result of the weakness in the linked business, specifically a cohort analyzed with the

use of analytics, 13th month Persistency was down yoy to 83.1% (-100bps), while 49th month

Persistency was up 110bps yoy and stood at 64.3%; and 2) It believes lower-ticket size ULIP

customers to have migrated to non-ULIP products.

Outlook and valuation

IPRU’s work in progress toward product diversification has helped it from the inherent

cyclicality of the ULIP business. We believe it should get the advantage of lower base in the

subsequent quarters, helped by continued traction in the protection segment, restart of selling

of par products and strong growth in immediate annuity business. However, the drop in 13th

month Persistency (nearing its assumptions) calls for caution and needs to be watched out

for. Maintain Buy/OW with a revised TP of Rs545 at 2.4x Sep’21E EV (earlier Rs540 at 2.4x

Sep’21E EV). The volatility in equity markets and higher surrenders are key risks for IPRU.

Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): BFSI-Insurance (page 9)

Financial Snapshot (Standalone)

(Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Profit 16,198 11,406 11,568 14,201 17,765

EPS (Rs) 11.3 7.9 8.1 9.9 12.4

VNB 12,860 13,280 15,738 19,617 24,937

VNB margin % 16.5 17.0 21.1 22.0 23.8

EV 187,900 216,240 253,731 298,420 353,210

ROEV % 22.7 20.2 18.0 18.4 19.1

P/EV (x) 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0

Source: Company, Emkay Research

http://www.emkayglobal.com/

ICICI Pru Life (IPRU IN) India Equity Research | Result Update

Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd,its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates are the distributors of the research reports, please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors,Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore

SA: SUNIL TIRUMALAI January 21, 2020 | 2

Story in Charts

Exhibit 1: Persistency ratio (ex-single premium) contracted


Exhibit 2: Increasing share of protection leading to higher costs


Exhibit 3: Improving product mix


Exhibit 4: Rising VNB margin


78% 82% 85% 84% 83%

30%

59% 58%63% 64%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

FY17 FY18 FY19 9MFY19 9MFY20

13M 25M 37M 49M 61M

5.23% 5.07% 4.95% 4.98% 5.17%

7.57%8.52%

9.60% 9.64% 10.03%

12.81%13.59%

14.55% 14.62% 15.21%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Commission Ratio Opex Ratio Cost Ratio

5.7% 9.3% 14.0% 14.5% 16.0%

81.6% 76.9% 69.9% 67.2% 63.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Product mix, %

Par Non-Par Savings Non-Par Protection ULIPs

12.9 13.3 15.7

19.6

24.9 16.5% 17.0%

21.1% 22.0%23.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0


VNB (Rs bn) VNB Margin %





Exhibit 5: Actual vs. Estimate (Q3FY20)

Rs mn Actual Estimate % variation

Comment Emkay Consensus Emkay Consensus

GWP (Rs mn) 82,637 83,549 NA -1.1% NA Slight miss due to lower renewals in linked business

APE (Rs mn) 20,380 19,796 NA 2.9% NA Slight beat

VNB Margin (%) 21.0 21.1 NA -0.1% NA Stable margins led by strong growth in Protection segment

PAT (Rs mn) 3,025 3,521 3,455 -14.1% -12.5% Miss due to higher new business strain

EPS (Rs) 2.1 2.5 NA -14.1% NA


Exhibit 6: Results Summary

Rs mn 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9MFY19 9MFY20 YoY (%)

GWP 75,664 101,636 63,293 81,908 82,637 9.2% 0.9% 207,661 227,837 9.7%

Premium on reinsurance ceded 834 1,073 1,211 1,261 1,326 59.0% 5.2% 2,442 3,799 55.6%

Net premium earned 74,830 100,563 62,081 80,647 81,310 8.7% 0.8% 205,220 224,038 9.2%

Investment income 11,860 58,390 21,348 778 47,442 300.0% 5997.2% 50,172 69,568 38.7%

Other income 197 306 166 194 229 16.4% 17.8% 588 589 0.1%

Total income 86,886 159,259 83,595 81,620 128,981 48.4% 58.0% 255,980 294,196 14.9%

Commission paid 3,671 5,098 2,648 3,945 4,277 16.5% 8.4% 10,418 10,870 4.3%

Operating and other expenses 7,448 9,559 8,494 10,596 9,451 26.9% -10.8% 23,222 28,541 22.9%

Provision for tax (policyholders) 291 252 291 257 194 -33.3% -24.4% 880 742 -15.7%

Claims/benefits paid (net) 33,245 44,937 36,446 41,373 53,908 62.2% 30.3% 97,654 131,727 34.9%

Change in actuarial liability 39,255 96,635 32,846 22,385 58,113 48.0% 159.6% 114,958 113,344 -1.4%

Total expenses 83,911 156,480 80,725 78,556 125,944 50.1% 60.3% 247,133 285,225 15.4%

PBT 2,975 2,778 2,870 3,063 3,038 2.1% -0.8% 8,848 8,971 1.4%

Provision for tax (shareholders) 8 168 21 45 13 72.0% -71.2% 55 78 43.0%

Net profit/(loss) 2,968 2,610 2,849 3,019 3,025 1.9% 0.2% 8,793 8,893 1.1%


Exhibit 7: Key Financials

Key Financials (Rs bn) 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9MFY19 9MFY20 YoY (%)

NBP 25.6 34.6 22.9 29.5 30.4 18.7% 3.0% 69.1 82.8 19.8%

APE 19.6 24.6 14.7 19.0 20.4 3.9% 7.3% 53.4 54.1 1.2%

VNB 3.2 4.2 3.1 4.0 4.3 33.1% 6.5% 9.1 11.4 24.7%

EV (Rs bn) NA 216.2 NA 226.8 NA NA NA NA NA NA


Exhibit 8: Key Data

% 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9MFY19 9MFY20 YoY (%)

VNB margin 16.3 17.0 21.0 21.1 20.9 459 (16) 17.0 21.0 400

Tax rate 0.3 6.1 0.7 1.5 0.4 17 (104) 0.6 0.9 25

Solvency 224.3 214.9 216.7 210.6 207.2 (1,710) (340) 224.3 207.2 (1,710)


Exhibit 9: Key Assumptions

% growth FY19A FY20E FY21E

GWP 14.3 10.1 12.8

NBP 12.5 18.4 22.2

APE (3.0) 1.9 19.5

VNB 3.3 18.5 24.6

EVOP 3.3 2.3 20.3

EV 15.1 17.3 17.6


Exhibit 10: Revision in Estimates

Rs mn FY20E FY21E

Old New % chg. Old New % chg.

NBP 128,453 122,671 -4.5% 157,412 149,939 -4.7%

APE 74,646 74,542 -0.1% 89,139 89,048 -0.1%

PAT 12,331 11,568 -6.2% 15,677 14,201 -9.4%

EV 253,446 253,731 0.1% 297,754 298,420 0.2%

VNB margin % 20.7 21.1 0.4% 21.6 22.0 0.4%

RoE (%) 16.9 15.9 -1.0% 19.7 18.2 -1.5%

ROEV % 17.8 18.0 0.1% 18.3 18.4 0.1%






Key Concall Takeaways

IPRU launched two new products in 3QFY20: 1) Protection - IPRU Precious Life covering

people with disabilities and 2) Participating Plan - Lakshya Lifelong Income - regular lifelong

income with guaranteed capital protection.

Maintains guidance of doubling absolute VNB over the next 3-4 years and for which it needs

to grow at 20-25% run-rate p.a.

Looking at diversifying product mix with focus on non-linked business including, annuity,

protection and the Par business.

Agency channel, though flat on an YTD basis, grew 11-12% yoy in Q3FY20, helped by the

focus on annuity, protection and the Par business.

13th month Persistency came down to 83.1% but it is still higher than the savings persistency

assumptions built in VNB and EV of 82.5%. The Persistency drop is attributed to the decline

in the linked business, and particularly to a specific cohort analyzed through the use of

analytics. The company has taken measures accordingly and believes year-end persistency

will be better than this.

Cost-to-TWRP improved for savings business to 11.1% in 9MFY20 vs. 11.5% in FY19;

however, total cost/TWRP moved to 16.6% from 15% in FY19 on higher new business strain

in the protection business.

Protection segment: Sold more of limited pay policies this year vs. regular pay policies last

year, leading to lower VNB margin from the protection segment, although at absolute VNB

level, it was indifferent.

Expects to maintain reported VNB margin of 21% in 9MFY20 by end of FY20.

IPRU added 18,500 agents in 9MFY20.

Added various non-traditional distributors like web aggregators, payments bank, etc.

Expects Protection mix to continue to expand and maintain traction next year as well. It is

believed to command 25-30% market share in retail protection in India.

Believes lower-ticket size ULIP customers to have migrated to non-ULIP products.

Others segment which grew strongly includes non-par savings business and group fund flow

business, and was helped by strong growth coming from the group fund flows.

VNB Margin is based on actual costs of 9MFY20 and projected cost for the next three

months.

Does not require to raise capital at this point of time; if needed, will raise Tier II capital of

25% of the paid-up capital.

New business premium sum assured grew 34% yoy in 9MFY20, while Protection APE grew

65% in the same period.

Not comfortable with the deferred annuity business. Seeing good traction in immediate

annuity and largely from ICICI Bank’s channel.

Expects reinsurance pricing to increase as per ongoing talks in industry, though cannot

comment on the timing and quantum of increase. Will take price increase in term plans

relative to what competition does. Reinsurance companies believes that changing customer

profile from urban to non-urban requires a change in reinsurance pricing.





Exhibit 11: Glossary

Term Abbreviation Description

Annualized Premium Equivalent APE APE is the sum of annualized first year premiums on regular premium policies and 10% of

single premiums on the new business written during any period.

Bancassurance Banca An arrangement entered into by an insurance company with banks through which the bank

sells or markets insurance products of the insurance company to the bank's clients

Embedded value EV

It represents the present value of shareholders’ interests in the earnings distributable from

the assets allocated to the business after sufficient allowance for the aggregate risks in the

business. It is the sum of retained earnings, invested capital and value in force (VIF). It is the

value of company's existing business.

Embedded value operating profit

EVOP

EVOP is a measure of the increase in the EV during any given period due to matters that

can be influenced by management. It includes value created due to writing off new business

and positive operating variance due to better persistency and mortality experience, better

expense efficiencies. It excludes changes in EV due to external factors like changes in

economic variables and shareholder-related actions like capital injection or dividend pay-

outs.

Operating return on embedded value ROEV Operating Return on EV is the ratio of EVOP for any given period to the EV at the beginning

of that period.

First Year Premium FYP Insurance premium that is due in the first policy year of a life insurance contract

In-Force - An insurance policy or contract, reflected on records, which has not expired, matured or

otherwise been surrendered or terminated.

Insurance Penetration - It is the insurance premium as % of GDP for any given period.

Morbidity Rate - It is an estimate of the number of persons that are expected to suffer a disease, illness,

injury, or sickness and could vary by age or other factor such as occupation, health etc.

Mortality Charges - The risk charges that are deducted from the unit fund of a policy to provide for the mortality

benefit to the policyholder.

Mortality Rate - An estimate of number of deaths, varying by such parameters as age, gender and health,

used in pricing and computing policy liabilities.

New Business Premium NBP Insurance premium, which is due in the first policy year of a life insurance contract or single

lump sum payment from the policyholder.

New business strain NBS

New business strain arises when the premium paid at the commencement of a contract is

not sufficient to cover the initial expenses, including acquisition costs and any mathematical

reserve that a company needs to set up at that point.

Participating Product -

A life insurance policy where the policyholder is entitled to share the surplus emerging in

participating fund. The current minimum share that the policyholders are entitled to, as per

the IRDAI regulations, is 90%.

Persistency Ratio -

It can be measured in terms of number of policies or in terms of premium underwritten. It is

in proportion of the business retained from business underwritten E.g. 49th Month

persistency at 65% will mean that only 65 policies are in force today out of 100 policies sold

4 years back.

Value of New Business VNB

VNB is the present value of expected future earnings from new policies written during a

specified period and it reflects the additional value to the shareholders - expected to be

generated through the activity of writing new policies during a specified period.

Value of new business margin VNB margin VNB margin is the ratio of VNB to New Business APE for a specified period and is a measure

of the expected profitability of new business.

Solvency Ratio - It is the minimum amount of required capital to run insurance business smoothly. In India, it

is set at 150% of the requirement by IRDAI.

Sum Assured SA The amount that an insurer agrees to pay on the occurrence of a stated contingency.

Source: DRHP, Industry data, Emkay Research





Key Financials (Standalone)

Income Statement

Policyholders Account-Y/E (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net earned premium 268,107 305,783 335,831 378,308 433,353

Income from investments 112,615 102,144 97,384 125,853 177,167

Contribution from the shareholders fund 753 5,272 9,322 7,500 6,000

Miscellaneous income 700 803 884 972 1,069

Total income 382,174 414,003 443,421 512,633 617,589

Commissions 14,033 15,513 16,634 18,844 22,417

Operating expenses 20,299 26,053 32,242 36,452 43,482

Provisions 5,727 6,351 7,099 7,640 8,303

Total expenses 40,059 47,917 55,976 62,937 74,202

Benefits paid (net) 172,808 142,591 172,923 180,753 202,804

Change in liabilities (net) 154,475 210,030 195,864 249,793 319,324

Total 327,283 352,621 368,788 430,546 522,128

Surplus 14,833 13,465 18,657 19,150 21,259

Tax 1,201 1,132 1,358 1,601 1,926

Net surplus 13,632 12,333 17,299 17,548 19,333

Transfer to shareholders account 10,892 10,770 15,075 15,044 16,313

Shareholders Account-Y/E (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Transfer from policyholders account 10,892 10,770 15,075 15,044 16,313

Income from investments 7,395 6,418 6,804 7,391 8,302

Other income 48 90 10 0 0

Total income 18,336 17,279 21,889 22,435 24,615

Expenses 388 377 415 456 502

Provisions 0 0 358 0 0

Contribution to policyholders account 753 5,272 9,322 7,500 6,000

Profit before tax 17,196 11,630 11,794 14,479 18,113

Tax 997 223 226 278 348

Net profit 16,198 11,406 11,568 14,201 17,765

Balance Sheet

Y/E Year End FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Sources of funds

Share capital 14,355 14,358 14,358 14,358 14,358

Reserve and surplus 51,409 54,397 58,928 65,399 75,434

Fair value change account credit/(debit)

3,081 1,712 1,712 1,712 1,712

Net worth (including fair value change)

68,845 70,467 74,998 81,469 91,504

Policyholders funds 1,306,111 1,513,451 1,705,698 1,955,492 2,274,816

Funds for future appropriations 8,782 10,344 12,568 15,072 18,092

Total liabilities 1,383,736 1,594,262 1,793,263 2,052,032 2,384,412

Application of funds

Shareholders investments 77,493 79,916 85,053 92,392 103,773

Policyholders investments 332,889 400,712 501,704 623,951 777,292

Assets to cover linked liabilities 975,020 1,109,458 1,203,994 1,331,541 1,497,524

Loans 1,451 2,702 2,702 2,702 2,702

Fixed assets 4,221 4,756 4,756 4,756 4,756

Net current assets (A-B) (7,336) (3,282) (4,946) (3,310) (1,635)

Miscellaneous expenditure 0 0 0 0 0

Debit balance in p&l 0 0 0 0 0

Total assets 1,383,736 1,594,262 1,793,263 2,052,032 2,384,412





Key Ratio (%)

Y/E Year End FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Conservation ratio % 85.7 81.6 79.1 81.6 81.6

Commissions ratio % 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2

Opex ratio % 7.6 8.5 9.6 9.6 10.0

ROA % 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8

ROE % 24.4 16.4 15.9 18.2 20.5

Dividend payout ratio % 59.4 39.7 22.3 24.3 9.7

EV Data FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Embedded value (Rs mn) 187,900 216,240 253,731 298,420 353,210

Value of new business (Rs mn) 12,860 13,280 15,738 19,617 24,937

EVOP (Rs mn) 36,810 38,010 38,875 46,766 56,867

ROEV % 22.7 20.2 18.0 18.4 19.1

VNB margin % 16.5 17.0 21.1 22.0 23.8


Per Share Data (Rs) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

EPS 11.3 7.9 8.1 9.9 12.4

DPS 6.7 3.1 1.8 2.4 1.2

BVPS 48.0 49.1 52.2 56.8 63.7

Valuation (x) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

P/E 43.3 61.6 60.7 49.4 39.5

P/B 10.2 10.0 9.4 8.6 7.7

P/EV 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0

P/VNB 54.6 52.9 44.6 35.8 28.2

Dividend yield (%) 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2


Growth (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

GWP 21.1 14.3 10.1 12.8 14.7

New business premium (NBP) 17.1 12.5 18.4 22.2 21.6

Annualized premium equivalent (APE) 16.1 (3.0) 1.9 19.5 17.9

Retail APE 16.4 (4.9) (8.0) 21.5 19.5

Commissions 84.9 10.5 7.2 13.3 19.0

Operating expenses (13.9) 28.3 23.8 13.1 19.3

Net income (3.7) (29.6) 1.4 22.8 25.1

Quarterly (Rs mn) Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20

Net earned premium 74,830 100,563 62,081 80,647 81,310

Total income 86,886 159,259 83,595 81,620 128,981

Total expenses 83,911 156,480 80,725 78,556 125,944

Net income 2,968 2,614 2,849 3,019 3,025

EPS (Rs) 2.07 1.82 1.98 2.10 2.11

Source: Capitaline

Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

Promoters 78.7 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0

FIIs 8.6 10.1 11.5 12.1 13.3

DIIs 4.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 5.5

Public and Others 8.1 8.4 7.2 6.2 6.2

Source: Capitaline





RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst

9-Dec-19 490 540 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

8-Nov-19 519 540 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

23-Oct-19 485 540 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal



11-Sep-19 422 470 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

13-Aug-19 375 470 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

25-Jul-19 396 470 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

28-Jun-19 389 435 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

7-Jun-19 386 435 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

13-May-19 337 425 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

25-Apr-19 368 425 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

22-Apr-19 369 400 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

13-Mar-19 334 400 12m Accumulate Neeraj Toshniwal

23-Jan-19 305 400 12m Accumulate Neeraj Toshniwal


25-Jul-18 404 501 12m Buy Neeraj Toshniwal

14-Jun-18 403 491 12m Accumulate Neeraj Toshniwal

18-Apr-18 382 453 12m Accumulate Neeraj Toshniwal


RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research

280

334

388

442

496

550

23

-Ja

n-1

7

23

-Ju

l-1

7

20

-Ja

n-1

8

20

-Ju

l-1

8

17

-Ja

n-1

9

17

-Ju

l-1

9

14

-Ja

n-2

0

BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price





Emkay Alpha Portfolio – BFSI-Insurance

EAP sector portfolio

Company Name BSE200 Weight

EAP Weight

OW/UW (%)

OW/UW (bps)

EAP Weight (Normalised)

BFSI-Insurance 1.37 1.37 0% 0 100.00

HDFC Life 0.46 0.41 -12% -6 29.74

ICICI Pru Life 0.27 0.29 8% 2 21.23

Max Financial 0.14 0.14 0% 0 10.07

SBI Life 0.50 0.54 7% 4 38.96

Cash 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00

Source: Emkay Research

* Not under coverage: Equal Weight

High Conviction/Strong Over Weight High Conviction/Strong Under Weight

Sector portfolio NAV

Base Latest

1-Apr-19 22-Oct-19 20-Dec-19 20-Jan-20

EAP - BFSI-Insurance 100.0 143.6 148.3 145.0

BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF) 100.0 144.3 148.8 145.6

*Performance measurement base date 1st April 2019


NAV chart


Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): SMID

Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Nifty

95

106

117

128

139

150

Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20

NAV

EAP - BFSI-Insurance BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF)

Analyst: Neeraj Toshniwal

Contact Details

[email protected]

+91 22 6612 1284

Sector

BFSI-Insurance

Analyst bio

Neeraj Toshniwal holds a CFA from the

CFA Institute, FRM, and MS (Finance)

from ICFAI, and has total research

experience of 10 years. He currently

covers 4 stocks in the Indian Life

Insurance space.


https://web3.emkayglobal.com/ResearchAccess/Upload/SMID_Jan20.pdf

https://web3.emkayglobal.com/ResearchAccess/Upload/Nifty_Jan20.pdf

mailto:[email protected]



SA: SUNIL TIRUMALAI January 21, 2020| 10

Emkay Rating Distribution

Ratings Expected Return within the next 12-18 months.

BUY Over 15%

HOLD Between -5% to 15%

SELL Below -5%

Completed Date: 22 Jan 2020 01:30:37 (SGT) Dissemination Date: 22 Jan 2020 01:31:37 (SGT)

Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.

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Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

CIN - L67120MH1995PLC084899

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Contact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul

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Rama 1 Road, Pathumwan,

Nagkok Thailand 10330

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Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand

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PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia)

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