redwood and douglas-fir stumpage price trends in coastal...
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Redwood and Douglas-fir Stumpage Price Trends In Coastal California
Richard B. Standiford UC Berkeley
Redwood/Douglas-fir Forests Redwood unique to California and southern
Oregon Found in association with Douglas-fir, tanoak,
alder Found within 50 miles of coast, in fog area Predominantly found on private lands, with
state parks and national parks holding most remaining old growth
California’s North Coast
Historical Timber Harvest – 1948-2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Tim
ber h
arve
st (m
mbf
)
year
Humboldt
Del Norte
Mendocino
Sonoma
North Coast Total
Coastal Harvest vs. State Totals – 1978-2011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Tim
ber h
arve
st (M
MB
F)
Year
Total State Harvest
Coastal Forest Total
21% to 40% of statewide timber harvest
Public Timber Harvest – North Coast vs. State Totals
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Publ
ic T
imbe
r Har
vest
(% o
f tot
al)
Year
North Coast % Govt.
Statewide % Govt.
Old Growth vs. Young Growth Harvest on North Coast
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Tim
ber h
arve
st (m
illio
n bo
ard
feet
)
Year
Young Growth
Old Growth
General Summary of North Coast Timber Harvest Trends
• North Coast a large percent of California’s total timber harvest – 21 to 40 percent annually
• Humboldt and Mendocino Counties the two leading timber harvest counties in the region
• Virtually all timber harvest on private lands
• Trend towards young growth harvest exclusively
Redwood and Douglas-fir Nominal Prices – 1978-2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Stum
page
pric
e ($
/mbf
)
Year
Redwood
Doug-fir
Redwood and Douglas-fir Real Prices (2011 dollars) 1978-2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Stum
page
pric
e ($
/mbf
)
Year
Redwood Real
Doug-fir Real
Price Summary • Real price increases: 1978 to 2012
– Redwood +0.2% annual increase – Douglas-fir -0.4% annual increase
• Rapid real price increases: – 1984 – 2000 for Redwood (+10.2%) – 1984 – 1994 for Doug-fir (+17%)
• Flat to declining in recent years: – since 2000 for redwood (-8.9%) – since 1994 for Doug-fir (-5.8%)
• Annual price variability: – -37% to +70% for redwood; 18 yrs.
annual decrease, 16 yrs. increase – -30% to +63% for Douglas-fir; 17
years annual decrease, 17 years increase
Conclusions • Unique niche for redwood
products and high consumer acceptance expected to continue
• Redwood expected to show greater strength than other species in the region
• Douglas-fir more of a commodity, with prices linked to pine and Douglas-fir from other regions, reflecting the strength of the housing market
• Use information to model supply-demand trends of redwood and Douglas-fir stumpage prices
Questions?