recession ended where_are_jobs_1-14-15
TRANSCRIPT
The Recession Ended
But Where Are the Jobs?
Lee KoslowJanuary 14, 2015
The recession ended, but where are the jobs?
What we will cover today:
Trend #1: Economic growth recovered quickly, but unemployment is easing very slowly
GDP back to pre-recession levels by 2011
Will unemployment ever return to its pre-recession level?
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mar
-07
Feb
-08
Jan
-09
Dec
-09
No
v-1
0
Oct
-11
Sep
-12
Au
g-1
3
Jul-
14
GDP
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Mar
-07
Feb
-08
Jan
-09
Dec
-09
No
v-1
0
Oct
-11
Sep
-12
Au
g-1
3
Jul-
14
US Unemployment Rate
Source: bea.gov
Trend #2: Unemployment numbers may be improving, but in Rochester the number of
people with jobs is not yet on the rise.
YearRochester Metro Area Unemployment Rate
2007 4.6%
2010 8.2%
2014 (Jan–Nov) 6.0%
Year
Employment (thisno. should when the unemployment rate decreases)
2007 504,795
2010 484,236
2014 (Jan–Nov) 481,657
Trend #3: The Rochester area labor force is aging and shrinking
90000
95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
2008 2013
Population, 65+, Monroe County
460000
462000
464000
466000
468000
470000
472000
474000
476000
2008 2013
Population, 18-64, Monroe County
364000
366000
368000
370000
372000
374000
376000
378000
2008 2013
Labor Force, Monroe County
>11,000 reached retirement age.
Approx. 8,800 reached adulthood.
The labor force shrunk by >8,000
Source: census.gov Source: census.gov
Trend #4: The number of discouraged workers—those who are not in the labor force because they believe no job is available—remains high
Year Discouraged Workers, US
2007 369,000
2010 1,173,000
2013 861,000
2014 739,000
Opportunity #1: Experienced workers, employers need you in the workforce
Opportunity #2: Millennials, employers want you in the workforce too
Trend #5: The number of people out of work for more than 6 months remains stubbornly high
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Long-Term Unemployed, US (1000s)
Trend #6: Large numbers of the “employed” are actually underemployed, working part-time jobs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Part-Timers Who Want Full-Time Work, US (1000s)
Opportunity #3: If you have been unemployed or underemployed for more than 6 months, you may qualify for the Finger Lakes Hired Initiative
For those who want to work in one of the following industries:
• Advanced Manufacturing• Computer/Information
Technology• Healthcare
Contact Annette DiPalma at 585-420-3204 or
Trend #7: During the recovery some industries have fared better than others
Industries that have added the most jobs, Rochester Metro, 2007–2013
Industry Sector Job Change
Education and Health Services
+9,955
Professional and Business Services
+4,371
Leisure and Hospitality
+4,311
Industries that have lost the most jobs, Rochester Metro, 2007-2013
Industry Sector Job Change
Manufacturing -14,078
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
-3,571
Information -1,876
Trend #8: Some occupations are projected to grow faster than others
Top 5 job families for total ave. annual openings, Finger Lakes Region, 2010–2020
Job Family % Change Openings
Office & Admin. Support
+3.3% 2,520
Sales and Related
+5.9% 2,240
Food Prep & Serving Related
+12.0% 2,150
Education, Training, & Library
+8.3% 1,690
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical
+13.0% 1,170
Bottom 5 job families for total ave. annual openings, Finger Lakes Region, 2010–2020
Job Family % Change Openings
Legal Occupations
+7.9% 130
Farming, Fishing & Forestry
-0.2% 180
Life, Physical, & Social Science
+10.4% 190
Architecture & Engineering
+2.2% 330
Protective Service
+4.1% 420
Trend #9: Many job openings are going unfilled, in part due to a skills gap
“Eighty percent of the economic growth we saw in the most recent economic recovery went to only 2 percent of the U.S. population. Economists believe that today skills and talent, not experience or tenure, drive earnings power and financial success.”
–Josh Bersin, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Opportunity #4: Take some time (and get some help) to find your place in the labor market
Different Occupation,Same Industry
Same Occupation,Same Industry
Different Occupation,Different Industry
Same Occupation,Different Industry
Higher Pay
High
er P
ay
Trend #10: Thanks to advances in technology, most job seekers now have the ability to build
their skills at little to no cost
• Professional Associations
• Social Learning
• MOOCs
• Community Education
Opportunity #5: Build your skills in your current occupation
Opportunity #6: Become a freelancer
“Free agents are people who are working untethered from a large organization. This includes freelancers, e-lancers, self-employed professionals and proprietors of very small businesses. These are not necessarily entrepreneurs … they're not necessarily startups that aspire to go big. They're people who have either been cast aside by larger organizations or have broken away from large organizations to make their own way.”
–Daniel Pink, Author of Free Agent Nation, http://www.workforce.com/articles/dan-pink-interview-free-agent-nation-evolves
Thanks for joining us!
Lee [email protected]/in/leekoslowwww.rochesterworks.org
Data from the tables and charts in this presentation were obtained from bls.gov unless otherwise noted.