RECENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR URBAN-RURAL MIGRATION IN EUROPE

WILLIAM J. SEROW+

Introduction

The residential mobility of the population is a topic which has come into prominence in recent years, as scholars begin to pay closer attention to the consequences of the ageing of human populations. Especially in the context of developed nations, where low rates of fertility are bringing about low rates of population growth and considerable ageing, geographic relocation is beginning to emerge as the principal factor in sub-national population growth rate differentials. Over the past two decades, there has been considerable interest paid to patterns of population movement be- tween urban and rural areas, especially in light of apparent reversals during the 1970s of the long-standing rural-urban flow (Vining and Kontuly 1978) as well as the ‘re-reversal’ which appears to have emerged during the latter portion of the 1980s (Berry 1988; Champion 1988; Cochrane and Vining 1988; Frey 1988; Mera 1988).

It is the purpose of this paper to review this aspect of population redistribution and determine the extent to which cross-national regu- larities exist. More specifically, this paper will review the findings of relevant studies, particularly in the European context, to determine the state of our knowledge regarding the magnitude of, and differences in the urban-rural or metropolitan-non-metropolitan mobility of the popula- tion. In doing so, the paper will touch upon the influences of demograph- ic, social, economic and environmental variables. One must recognize that definitions of concepts such as ‘urban’ or ‘metropolitan’ will vary ac- cording to country usage. Additionally, the status of a given place as urban versus rural or as metropolitan versus non-metropolitan may change over the course of time, due to changes in the definition of these concepts o r due to changes in the population size of the geographic entity above or below some threshold level.

* Director Center for the Study of Population and Professor of Economics, The Florida Stare University, Tallahassee Florida, USA.

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Recent trends in population movements

Even in the face of the problems associated with comparisons of migration data from different nations, there exists a substantial degree of similarity in migration behaviour with regard to tendencies to move between rural/ non-metropolitan and urban/metropolitan areas, with a clear, though not universal, temporal pattern emerging. For those nations where data exist from the 1950s until the end of the 1980s, the following sort of general pattern emerges: substantial net movement towards urban or metropoli- tan areas in the 1950s, continuing, perhaps at a diminishing pace through the 1960s, with declining levels often becoming net movement to rural or non-metropolitan areas until the late 1970s or early 1980s, followed by the most recent reversal of movement back to urban or metropolitan areas.

More generally, the period of the 1960s and 1970s could be character- ized as a period with a substantial degree of movement away from the largest urban areas in economically advanced nations. This conclusion pertains to much of the industrialized West (Vining and Kontuly 1978; Fielding 1982), although it has not been without criticism (Berry 1988; Champion 1988), particularly with regard to the definition and oper- ationalization of the concepts of ‘core’ and ‘periphery’ as used by, Vining and Pallone (1982) and, more recently, by Cochrane and Vining (1988).

Data from specific nations provide additional evidence for the first reversal of the 1970s (that is, movement away from urban/metropolitan areas) and, depending upon the recency of the data, occasionally further information which at least ‘hints’ at the prospect of the more recent re-reversal (that is, movement toward urban/metropolitan areas). In the case of the Netherlands, Vergoossen (1990) presents data on net migration rates for the gemeente (the smallest administrative unit), classified on a broad rural to urban continuum. Within an overall framework of reduced rates of mobility over time, areas which could be classified as being rural have undergone transition from low (less than 1 per cent) positive or negative rates of net migration in the late 1950s to rates of net inmigration approaching 2 per cent in the early to mid-l970s, followed by a reduction of these rates to levels in the early to mid-1980s which were barely greater than zero. Conversely, medium and large sized cities have undergone transition from low (less than 1 per cent) positive or negative rates of net migration in the late 1950s to rates of net outmigration exceeding (for the four largest cities) 2 per cent in the early to mid-l970s, followed by a reduction of these rates to levels in the early to mid-1980s which were barely less than zero.

Courgeau (1990) shows that for rural places in France, net migration rates increased from a level of -0.7per cent for 1962 to 1.3 per cent in 1982; additionally, during this period net migration rates for places with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants rose from levels of 0.1 to 0.3 per cent to 0.5 to 0.8

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per cent. Conversely, net migration rates for all larger places, which were initially about 0.5 per cent had declined and turned to negative levels of 0.6 to 0.9 per cent. Previously, Courgeau (1986) had indicated that more recent trends suggested some slowdown in this pattern of deconcen- tration.

Recent trends in two additional nations confirm the general trend towards decentralization of the 1970s and early 1980s: in the United Kingdom, Rees and Stillwell (1990) show total population change of -6.5 per cent for metropolitan areas, 6.0 per cent for non-metropolitan areas and total (national) population change of 0.5 per cent. During the year 1980- 81, net internal migration to non-metropolitan areas was slightly more than 100 thousand persons. For the Federal Republic of Germany, Friedrich (1990) reports a net migration rate of 0.7 into rural areas during the first half of the 1980s.

Among industrialized nations, an important exception to the general pattern of reversal and re-reversal with regard to movement towards urban/metropolitan areas may be observed among what had been charac- terized as the centrally planned economies of eastern Europe. Studies of Poland (Korcelli 1990) and the Soviet Union (Rowland 1990) suggest a continuous net influx of persons into urban areas over time, although in each case there is evidence to suggest a recent slowing of this tendency. The more comprehensive Polish data show net rural to urban migration of about 100 thousand for the three quinquennia beginning in the early 1950s, with gradual acceleration to a maximum level of 214 thousand in the late 1970s, followed by a reduction to 137 thousand for the first half of the 1980s.

The Soviet data are less exhaustive but do show net rural to urban migration (computed as a share of mid-period urban population) declin- ing from 1.3 per cent in the 1960s to 1.0 per cent in the 1970s and the share of all internal migrants with an urban destination declining from 70 per cent in 1970 and 1979 to 66 per cent in 1985. This variance in migration behaviour according to prevailing type of economic organization rein- forced the findings reported previously regarding overall trends in pop- ulation redistribution by Vining and Pallone (1982). The extent to which these tendencies continue as economic reforms continue apace in eastern Europe is, of course, an open and extremely interesting question.

Variations in metropolitan migration patterns by age

One of the most crucial variables for any sort of demographic analysis is the age structure and, more specifically, the nature of age-specific differ- ences in demographic behaviour. In the present context, there is consid- erable interest in this variable and there had been considerable speculation

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- 30

- 4 0

that the initial reversal (that is movement away from urban or metropoli- tan areas) was in some measure due to differential or pro-cyclical beha- viour among the elderly (Cribier 1980); for reasons of health (Bentham 1988); or an improvement in economic well-being via a relocation to areas with comparatively low living costs (Fournier et al. 1988).

Data which show the pattern of net migration by age according to type of place of residence are shown for France in Figure 1 , which displays rates of net migration (per 1,000 persons) for the urban area of Paris and for all rural portions of the nation for the intercensal periods ending in 1962 and 1982.

-

- -

Figure 1 : Net migration rates by age: Urban area of Paris and rural France, 1962 and 1982 (Per 1,000 inhabitants)

Paris 1962 _ _ _ _ Rural France 1982

__-_-__ Paris 1982

. . . . . . . -. . Rural France 1962

Source: Courgeau (1990)

For rural areas, net migration was negative during the earlier period at all ages except for those persons between the ages of 50 and 74 at the end of the period. By 1982, net inmigration could be observed at all ages except for young adults in their twenties and, again, among persons aged 75 and older. The age profile for net migration to Paris is remarkably constant

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over time, with respect to the shape of the curve, but the entire curve has clearly shifted downward, towards net outmigration. Net inmigration to Paris was observed among all age groups up to 45-49 during the earlier period, but only among young adults during the later.

In general, non-metropolitan or rural areas are comparatively attractive to adults in the primary years of child raising (approximately between the ages of 30 and 44), as well as children under the age of 15, and among persons prior to and immediately after the conventional age of retirement. Conversely, there exists a comparatively strong pull toward urban areas among persons in the phases of acquisition of higher education, initial entry into the labour force and initial establishment of an independent household (ages 15-29) and among persons aged 75 and above.

There is a ‘clear over-representation’ of the elderly in their early retirement years included in the metropolitan to non-metropolitan migra- tion stream. There are substantial net outflows from the five largest cities of Belgium to rural areas, particularly those situated along the coast and in the Ardennes (forest) region in the south of the country. Once again, the magnitude of the flows is greatest, in both absolute and relative terms, among persons aged 55 to 64. For the case of the Netherlands, there were pronounced net outflows from the nation’s four largest cities to places of all other size classifications; this tendency is most striking among persons aged 60-64, where relative inmigration is strongest to the smallest places. Finally, in the United Kingdom, one may find strong net flows from the metropolitan areas, particularly greater London and its environs, to non- metropolitan areas near the coast and in relative proximity to the capital city. Once again, these flows are of greatest magnitude at and immediately after the age of retirement.

Patterns of mobility between urban and rural areas

Our analysis thus far has dealt almost entirely with levels of net migration. While this is a useful concept for determining differentials in population growth rates, it tells us nothing about the underlying dynamics of the migration process and provides us with no clue as to the extent to which the changes already observed are attributable to increases o r decreases in migration flows from urban to rural (or rural to urban) areas. We endeav- our to rectify this by utilization of the data presented in Table 1, which show rural-urban and urban-rural gross migration rates for the Netherlands.

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Table 1 : Migration rates between urban and ruralareas: Netherlands, 1958,1973 and 1983 (rates per 1,000 population)

1958 1973 1983

Agricultural rural to a11 urban Industrial rural to all urban Middle-sized urban to dl rural Largest urban to all rural

20.3 21.3 21.2 23.2 23.0 20.0 15.8 29.1 12.0 10.9 23.7 11.0

Source: Vergoossen (1990)

The data shown here are rates of migration between rural and urban areas, rather than absolute flows between metropolitan and non-metropolitan places. Migration rates to urban areas have changed but little over the course of time, with perhaps a slight tendency for reduction at the end of the period. The real cause for the initial reversal and subsequent re- reversal is clearly the increase in migration probabilities from urban to rural areas, reaching the point by 1973 of net urban to rural flows. Subsequently, these probabilities have radically diminished, causing the re-reversal of migration toward urban areas.

In rather sharp contrast to the fluctuations in migration levels or rates directed toward rural or non-metropolitan areas is the sustained decline in urban-rural migration in Poland. While the number of moves of both types have decreased steadily over time, the reductions have almost al- ways been appreciably greater for urban-rural than for rural-urban flows. The proportion of moves directed toward urban areas has increased from an initial level of 58 per cent in the 1950s to nearly 75 per cent throughout the 1970s. Unlike the situation discussed previously, there has been in the most recent period a pronounced decline in rural-urban migration, as reflected in the reduction in the level of net urban migration and in the reduction in the share of all moves toward an urban destination. At this point in time, though, it would be premature in the extreme to suggest that this most recent turn of events is in any way a harbinger of a reversal of long-standing migration tendencies in Poland. If one considers only movements for the most recent year, it is quite apparent that migration flows continue to be directed to successively larger places within the urban hierarchy. Net migration for any place-size category was negative to all place-size categories larger than the one in question and was positive from all place-size categories smaller than the one in question, with the exception of the minimal net inflow into places of 50 to 100 thousand inhabitants from places of 100 thousand or more inhabitants,

More generally, this discussion of size of place does raise the issue of the extent to which these shifting patterns of urban-rural movement are little more than an extension of long-standing processes of suburban growth.

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The process of migration between suburbs, rural areas and large urban centres is illustrated by data from the Netherlands (Table 2).

Table 2: Migration rates between suburban and ruralareasand between suburban and urban areas: Netherlands, 1918, 1973 and 1983 (rates per 1,000 population)

1958 1973 1983

Suburban to agricultural rural 9.0 14.0 3.2 Suburban to industrial rural 7.3 9.6 6.0 Agricultural rural to suburban 2.2 2.8 3.5 Industrial rural to suburban 2.4 2.9 3.5 Suburban to middle-sized urban 11.4 8.8 7.3 Suburban to largest urban 24.9 17.6 14.9 Middle-sized urban to suburban 4.7 6.3 7.9 Largest urban to suburban 6.5 11.7 11.9

Source: Vergoossen (1990)

The data include two types of rural areas (those with agricultural and industrial bases) and two types of cities (the four largest cities and other (middle-sized) urban areas). Rates of geographic mobility from each of these areal types to suburbs have increased quite steadily over time, in contrast to movement from suburbs either to rural areas, which increased between 1958 and 1973, but have since sharply diminished, or to middle- sized and large cities, which has declined steadily over time,

A slightly different perspective on this topic, although one which leads to the same general conclusion can be gained from considering data on population change in the United Kingdom during the 1970s. These data suggest greater growth in suburban settings (‘ring’ and ‘outer’ areas) for both metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions than in rural areas, although both of these areal types substantially exceed the core in terms of overall growth. Furthermore, growth was almost always consistently higher in smaller metropolitan (‘sub-dominant’) and non-metropolitan regions than in the largest metropolitan regions. Given that these changes were occurring in a national setting almost devoid of overall population growth, one must conclude that internal migration is the driving force behind these differentials.

The determinants of migration between urban and rural areas

The discussion in the foregoing paragraphs touches directly upon the question of the factors which determine the mobility behavior of individ- uals. In reality, this question actually comprises two separate questions: whether to move?, and, if so, where? The motivations for migration tend to be very much of a life-cycle phenomenon, with persons of working age

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tending to move for job-related reasons while older persons might move for amenities, proximity to family or friends, and/or proximity to health care and support. Thus, changing patterns of geographic mobility be- tween rural and urban areas may reflect temporal differences in the comparative economic growth of different portions of a nation as well as the underlying demographic dynamics of the population in the form of shifts in the overall age structure.

Perhaps the critical question for further discussion is how the general pattern of urbanization-counter-urbanization-urbanization, which seems to have emerged from the findings reviewed here as well as the more general core-periphery patterns shown by Cochrane and Vining (1 988), can be taken as a continuation of the historic trend towards increasing population concentration, with the reversal of the 1970s representing nothing more than a temporary deviation from the trend; or the beginning of a pattern of cycles of urbanization and counter-urbanization which, in turn, might be viewed as responses to changes in economic conditions, economic policies, or the structure of economic activity.

All in all, the most cogent explanation for the patterns of concentration and deconcentration which have emerged over the course of the past few decades probably lies in the cyclical or wave type argument. Berry (1988) argues that excessive attention has been paid to short-term fluctuation at the expense of concentration on longer-term tendencies; he provides evidence of a %-year cycie of ‘urbanward migration’, which is linked (inversely) with the simultaneous occurrence of economic recession and inflation (‘stagflation’). Mera (1988) points to economic variables as being the crucial determinant, but asserts that the phenomenon is largely linked to cycles in political philosophy and economic policy. More specifically, Mera claims that the reconcentration of the 1980s is a product of the political and economic conservatism of the decade which have promoted deregulation and privatization of economic activity. These factors, coupled with technological change, have permitted the concentration of economic activity in a smaller number of large, multinational firms which are easily able to maintain close and continuous financial links with each other, through the three ‘prominent centres’ of London, New York and Tokyo.

According to Champion (1988) there exist three distinct sets of factors which need to be considered and understood. The pattern of interplay and the comparative strength of these factors tend to change over time, and it is the result of these changes that variations in patterns of urbanization and counter-urbanization emerge. The first set of factors are those which tend, over time, to favour deconcentration. These would include improved transportation and communication, the increased dispersion of educa- tional and related facilities, preferences toward less dense residential

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environments and the need for more residential space by households, and the growth of interest in outdoor type recreational pursuits. The second set of factors are those which tend, over time, to favour concentration. These are primarily expressed in terms of the concentration of economic activity requiring substantial access to other national and international activities and carry with them a requisite need for a highly-skilled and highly-specialized labour force. Overlaying both of these is the third set of factors, which Champion argues "... may have different geographical effects at different times depending on the prevailing circumstances ..." (p. 258). Paramount among these are demographic factors, which carry with them age- or cohort-specific preferences for different residential settings. Depending upon the nature of these preferences, the impact of this third set of factors would operate to reinforce one or the other of the first two sets, and tend to push the overall pattern towards a mode of concentration or deconcentration.

It is impossible to speculate with any real degree of accuracy with regard to the first two sets of factors as identified by Champion. Rather, it would seem that these will always be present and will always be in conflict with each other. We are able to state with some assurance what the future course of the age structure of most economically advanced nations will be, barring any unexpected (although not unprecedented) changes in de- mographic behaviour, especially with regard to fertility. Our previous discussion with regard to the relationship between age (or stage in the life course) and residential preferences for France would suggest that prefer- ences for deconcentrated residential environments appear to be strongest among young to middle age families (and the children of these families) and among persons around the conventional age of retirement. Converse- ly, the preferences for concentrated residential environments appear to be strongest among young adults, prior to their embarkation on the process of childbearing and rearing (for a more detailed treatment of the relation- ship between stage of the life cycle and residential mobility see Courgeau 1984).

To illustrate how demographic change might influence the future course of urban concentration or deconcentration, consider the projec- tions for a few specific age groups in France over the period from 1985 until 2025, as shown in Figure 2. The groups shown here include persons aged 18-23, who might be taken as symbolic of those with the greatest preference for large urban areas, women aged 35-49 and all persons aged 60-64, both of whom might be taken as symbolic of those with the greatest preference for less densely settled areas, either rural or suburban.

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6.000

4.000

2,000

0

Figure 2: Projections of the population of France for specific age groups: 1985-2021

-

Persons aged 18-23 - - ...................... .- .- Persons aged 60-64 .. ......................................

.*

- .....

I I I I I I 1

Thousands of persons

12,000

Source: United Nations (1986)

The data show that the numbers in the first of these three categories will begin to decline from a level of about 5 million after 1990 and should gradually decrease over time during the projection horizon to a terminal level of about 4 million. The number of women in the peak child-raising years should increase from 9 to 10 million until the turn of the century and then decline to the initial level, while the number of persons at the age of retirement, which grew considerably during the first half of the 1980s, shows litde change through the year 2000, increases very rapidly during the first decade of the 21st century, and then remains at a level of about 4 million thereafter.

Hence, and based solely upon the demographic dynamics of France, one might argue that the next 35 years would see a relatively greater tendency for population deconcentration. It may be that in the immediate future, this tendency might be more oriented in the direction of suburban

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development given the prospects of greater growth among the family- centred age group, followed by a period in the next century of a greater orientation towards more rural areas as the ‘young- old’ attain greater numbers. In the longer run, there might be a resurgence of movement back towards larger urban areas, as the ‘young-old’ become the ‘oldest- old’ and tend to demand more specialized health-care needs. A similar sort of exercise can as easily be done for any other nation where one would have knowledge of the relationship between agellife-cycle stage and resi- dential preferences.

All of the foregoing statements are predicated upon the continuation of existing centrifugal and centripetal forces at more or less their existing relative strengths. This is, of course, very unrealistic, as reflection upon the course of the changes of the past several decades will confirm. What sort of changes will occur in these factors and the extent to which they will impact upon the slowly evolving, but probably inevitable, demographic changes are a matter to which all students of the pattern of population concentration and distribution will need turn their attention. Two rather obvious examples of such developments might be cited for the case of Europe.

First, as the European Community moves closer to the formation of true economic union in 1992, there certainly exists the possibility of greater internal movement within the Community. As the existing nation- al level social security, pension and health care systems approach perfect alinement with each other, one could rather easily imagine the emergence of seasonal patterns of migration across national borders. This might be particularly relevant among those who have retired from the labour force, creating a subset of the population termed ‘snowbirds’ in the North American parlance, that is (usually affluent, retired) persons who spend approximately half of each year in a warm climate and the remainder of the year ‘at home’.

The second development which may play some role in patterns of population concentration or dispersion is the political changes which are still in process in Eastern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. At this point in time, it would be premature to offer speculation as to the degree or nature of potential east to west or south to north flows, but if a sizeable share of the workforce is able to move in such directions, there will most assuredly be consequences for patterns of population distribution

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