recent developments in the business tendency survey area at the oecd michela gamba, statistics...
TRANSCRIPT
Recent developments in the Business Tendency Survey area at the OECDMichela Gamba, Statistics Directorate OECD
– EU Workshop on BTS – Brussels 15-16 November 2012
Outline OECD recent work in the BTS area
• New hierarchy for the OECD Tendency Surveys
• Seasonal adjustment project• Handbook on Tendency Surveys
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New hierarchy for Tendency Surveys Rationale
– Transparency & comparability– Simplify the coding system– Reconciliation with international
standards–More coherence with the new
Handbook on BS/CS– Target list built on the standard list
agreed in the harmonised EC system
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New hierarchy for Tendency Surveys
Steps
• Revised target list in accordance with new BS & CS Handbook – Inventory of existing series– Country coverage
• New coding– Matching old codes with new– Harmonise CIs compilation– Harmonise metadata
go live by end of 2013Q1
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Seasonal adjustment projectBackground
• “Is it necessary to seasonally adjust business and consumer confidence series?” – OECD, 2008
www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/43858762.pdf
• Enhanced DEMETRA+– Free at circa.europa.eu– Developed by NBB, maintained by EuroStat– based on both TRAMO/SEATS and X-12 Arima – Allowing multi-processing and single-processing
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Seasonal adjustment Implementation
The rule for selecting series
currently s.a. by OECD gross series provided by countries
…but also…
s.a. series by the EC
…for a total of 730 series for BS and 78 series for CS
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Seasonal adjustment The method
Steps to follow
1 –assessing prerequisites by checking the quality of original data
2- perform seasonal adjustment3- analysis of results4- refine/readjust export to system
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Handbook on Tendency SurveysBackground
Steering group: StatCan, Statistics Netherlands, ROSSTAT, ES, UNSD
Working group: ISTAT (lead), UNSD, OECD, NSCB Philippines, Swiss KoF, Statistics Netherlands
Scope: prepare a Handbook on Tendency Surveys with best practices and a proposed harmonised questionnaire to be implemented by countries
Draw upon OECD and EC handbooks but addressed to a broader audience and including more sectors
Timing: final draft end 2013- to be presented to final draft end 2013- to be presented to the UN Statistical Commission by Feb 2014the UN Statistical Commission by Feb 2014
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Handbook on Tendency SurveysOECD contribution
• QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN1. Keys aspects for questions to be covered Formulation (what to ask, why and how) Definition (what to measure) backward/forward looking Time horizon (past-present-future) Growth vs level (ups-downs vs below-above normal) Seasonality
2. Define sets of core variables for BTS & CS to be used in harmonised questionnaires at various frequencies
3. Account for any departures (country specific, ad-hoc/ experimental questions)
4. Cover background information on businesses and respondents
5. Pre-testing
• USE OF TENDENCY SURVEYS RESULTS Use of confidence indicators for business cycle analysis
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…and the usual business
• Maintaining rolling updates of series• Consolidating BRIICS coverage• Extend data coverage to G20
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