real estate programming

Upload: biodistrict-new-orleans

Post on 08-Apr-2018

224 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    1/45

    3 0 3 E Wa c k e r Dr . , S u i te 6 0 0

    Ch ic a g o , IL 6 0 6 0 1

    3 1 2 .3 7 3 .7 5 5 8 www.a e c o m.c o m

    Project Report

    Real Estate Programming for

    BioDistrict New Orleans

    Prepared for

    AECOM Design + Planning

    Submitted by

    Economics at AECOM,

    An AECOM Technical Services, Inc Company

    (AECOM)

    October 2010

    Economics Project No. 18438

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    2/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438

    Table of ContentsI. Introduction and Executive Summary .....................................................................................3Summary Estimates .................................................................................................................... 3II.BioDistrict Demographics.........................................................................................................7

    Member Institutions..................................................................................................................... 9III.Case Studies ............................................................................................................................11

    Illinois Medical District (IMD) Chicago, IL............................................................................... 12Memphis Medical Center Memphis, TN ................................................................................. 14University of Alabama at Birmingham Medical Center District Birmingham, AL .................... 16Summary Tables ....................................................................................................................... 18

    IV.Retail .........................................................................................................................................20V.Residential................................................................................................................................26VI.Long-Term Stay Facilities and Meeting Space......................................................................29VII.Office and Medical Office Space ............................................................................................34VIII.Phasing and Target Locations................................................................................................36IX.Incentive Options.....................................................................................................................38

    Federal Incentive Options ......................................................................................................... 38Historic Tax Credits ................................................................................................................... 38New Markets Tax Credits.......................................................................................................... 38State Incentive Options ............................................................................................................. 39Local Incentive Options............................................................................................................. 42

    X.General & Limiting Conditions ...............................................................................................44

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    3/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438

    Table of TablesTable 1: Population Change for BioDistrict......................................................................................... 7Table 2: Population and Households for BioDistrict ........................................................................... 7Table 3: Population Projections .......................................................................................................... 8Table 4: Employment, Hospital Beds, and Patient Visits for the BioDistrict ....................................... 8Table 5: New Orleans Health Care Employment................................................................................ 9Table 6: Case Study Population and Households ............................................................................ 18Table 7: Case Study Employment, Hospital Beds, and Patient Visits .............................................. 18Table 8: Convenience and Food & Beverage Expenditure for the BioDistrict .................................. 20Table 9: Office Worker Stats - Daily Retail ....................................................................................... 21Table 10: Convenience Goods Office Worker Retail........................................................................ 22Table 11: Office Worker Stats - Daily F&B ....................................................................................... 22Table 12: Office Worker Lunch Habits Detailed................................................................................ 23Table 13: Retail Space Compared to Employment and Households................................................ 23Table 14: Initial Retail Program (5-Years) - Net Demand ................................................................. 24Table 15: Retail Sq. Ft. - Increments by Period................................................................................ 24Table 16: Summary of Current and Future Rental Units in BioDistrict ............................................. 26Table 17: Comparison of Employment Levels to District Households.............................................. 27Table 18: Initial Residential Program (5-Years) - New Demand....................................................... 28Table 19: Residential Units. - Increments by Period......................................................................... 28Table 20: New Orleans Hotel Occupancy......................................................................................... 29Table 21: Existing BioDistrict Long Term Stay Facilities .................................................................. 29Table 22: Patients Visiting BioDistrict Hospitals from Outside New Orleans.................................... 29Table 23: Long Term Stay Facilities in Surrounding Area ................................................................ 30Table 24: Medical Long Term Stay Facilities Case Studies ............................................................. 31Table 25: Comparison of Long-Term Stay Capacity......................................................................... 31Table 26: Initial Long Term Stay Program (5-Years) - Net Demand................................................. 32Table 27: BioDistrict and New Orleans Meeting Space.................................................................... 32Table 28: BioDistrict Office Space.................................................................................................... 34Table 29: Case Study Office Space.................................................................................................. 34Table 30: Comparison of Medical Office Space Capacity ................................................................ 35Table 31: Office, R&D, and Manufacturing - Increments by Period.................................................. 35

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    4/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 3

    I. Introduction and Executive Summary

    Economics at AECOM (formerly ERA) was retained to assist the master planning project team

    being led by AECOM Design + Planning in development of the ancillary real estate program for the

    proposed BioDistrict New Orleans. Over the course of this analysis, AECOM reviewed information on

    the local market provided by GCR, incorporated analysis from CBRE regarding office, manufacturing,

    research, and development space, developed a series of case studies of other comparable medical

    districts, and relied on AECOM project experience with comparable projects elsewhere. The

    combination of this data, information, and experience resulted in the program estimates reviewed in

    this analysis and summarized in this introduction and executive summary of findings.

    Figures developed by GCR and Associates indicate a potential BioDistrict institution-related full-

    time and part-time employment in the order of 17,000+ at full development, with an additional medical,

    R&D, and medical manufacturing potential of nearly 5,000 full-time jobs. Thus the direct potential

    employment in the BioDistrict is estimated to exceed 22,000 full- and part-time jobs, before indirect,

    induced, and construction economic impacts are taken into consideration. The significant increase in

    employment as well as ancillary employment related to the core institutional functions create an

    opportunity for additional market-driven real estate program throughout the area. Economics at

    AECOM was tasked with evaluating the potential for added retail, residential, long-term stay, and other

    commercial or office development. As well, when comparing the BioDistrict to comparable districts

    elsewhere, given the level of employment and activity the BioDistrict is underdeveloped with respect to

    amenities and spinoff development, indicating opportunity for added economic development and

    supportive real estate uses.

    Summary Estimates

    As the integrated program table on the following page indicates, market-driven and institutional

    development in the BioDistrict over the course of the 20-year planning period is estimated to be in

    excess of 13 million sq. ft. Most of this development, nearly 7 million sq. ft., is anticipated within the

    next 5 years. Given the significant level of development potential there is likely opportunity for

    supportive, coordinated action with respect to major transportation, infrastructure, and overall

    development activity.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    5/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 4

    Integrated Development Program 20 Years

    Increments - Square Feet

    5-Year 10-Year 20-YearMarket Based Program

    Residential 1,280,000 418,000 418,000

    Retail 100,000 55,000 -

    Med. Office, R&D, Mfct. 175,000 625,000 800,000

    Long Term Stay 55,000 - -

    Meeting Facility 10,000 - -

    The Building Block 190,000 - -

    Institutional Program(s) VA Sites Research Building 152,000 - -

    Res., Rehab & Trans. Lvng. 504,000 - -

    Medical Facilities 1,182,000 - -Hospital Infrastructure 201,000 - -

    UMC Sites Medical Facilities 1,559,000 1,718,000 -

    Hospital Infrastructure - - -

    Other LSU Health Sciences Research Building - 200,000 -

    Faculty Practice/MOB - 120,000 -

    Academic Building 82,000 - -

    Student Housing - - -

    Hotel & Conference - 320,000 -

    Other Tulane Health Sciences Research Building 250,000 330,000 -

    Medical Facilities - - 300,000

    Academic Building* - - 270,000

    Student Housing* - - 350,000Hotel - - 300,000

    Ochsner - - -

    Xavier Academic Building* 500,000 28,000 -

    Student Housing 450,000 - -

    Delgado Academic Building 65,000 - 150,000

    Other Parking VA Parking Garage 2,000 cars - -

    UMC Parking Garage 1,400 cars 1,400 cars -

    Xavier Parking Garage

    500-2,000cars

    - -

    Total Dev. Sq. Ft. (ex. parking) 6,755,000 3,814,000 2,588,000Cumulative Dev. Sq. Ft. (ex. parking) 6,755,000 10,569,000 13,157,000

    *Note: Includes some parking sq. ft.

    Source: AECOM, Cannon Design, CBRE

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    6/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 5

    Net retail demand on the site is estimated to come primarily from area residents and employees of

    the major institutions nearby. AECOM estimates for a mix comprised mainly of convenience retail and

    services, and out-of-home (non-grocery) food and beverage offerings. Specialty and destination retaildo not fit well with the proposed set of uses and functions for the site area and are an explicit target for

    other areas of the city, most notably down Canal St. and towards the river. For convenience retail, we

    envision offerings that are a combination of retail (personal care, drugstore, reading materials, etc.)

    and convenience services (dry cleaning, daycare, etc.). Food and beverage offerings are expected to

    skew towards lunch offerings such as quickserve and lower cost sit-down options (fast food, deli/

    grocery, etc.). After the BioDistrict household count grows, additional offerings similar to these, as well

    as a grocery store may be possible. While it may be possible to grow the quantity of retail beyond this

    initial program in the future, this would likely require more significant, neighborhood-oriented anchor

    tenants such as grocery, fitness center, or other big-box concepts.

    AECOM estimates for over 1,200 residential units in the BioDistrict over the next 5 years and more

    than 2,000 at full build out, mostly rental. The preponderance of these units are anticipated to come

    from new employees for the major institutions in the BioDistrict, with a small number of households

    from other residential growth in the BioDistrict projected by GCR. After the initial 5-year time period

    when the area has been more fully developed and more services are available, AECOM estimates that

    some number of the site employees may opt to live in owner occupied housing nearby their place of

    employment. This proportion is estimated to be in the 2%-3% range, equating to an additional

    potential of roughly 500 700 additional owner occupied units in the BioDistrict. For the purposes of

    this analysis AECOM distributes these units over years 5 to 20. Given the large number of proposed

    but undeveloped residential projects in and around the site area, it is unclear at this time how many of

    these units would need to be in new, as yet unproposed developments. Nevertheless this does

    provide a range of the order of magnitude of residential offerings related to the redevelopment of the

    BioDistrict.

    In comparing the BioDistrict to other medical districts with long-term stay offerings, the BioDistrict

    falls within range of comparable development elsewhere which makes it unclear that there is a

    pressing need for new facility space. However, as noted in this analysis, the type of offering currently

    available through the Clarion Inn and Suites (the only current long-term stay offering in the BioDistrict)

    does not fit with comparable offerings related to medical districts. Overall, AECOM finds that between

    90 and 120 units could be supportable in the BioDistrict given the level of expected visits from out of

    the area which is consistent with the case studies indicating an average of 110 units per comparable

    development in medical related long term stay facilities.

    AECOMs experience elsewhere with similar medical districts indicates that most conferences and

    related spaces for medical districts are needed for meetings of 150 to 300 attendees on average;

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    7/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 6

    however, some conferences of 500 to 600 attendees could be possible if the space were higher in

    quality and larger than that which currently exists. Using a planning factor of capacity for 400 persons

    per meeting, ratios of 15 sq. ft. per person for the core banquet and divisible meeting space, as well as1.5 to 2 times this figure for additional breakout and supportable meeting space, this would imply

    potential for 9,000 to 12,000 sq. ft. of contiguous space in the BioDistrict. AECOM would not

    recommend a facility larger than this at the current time, given the notable capacity of other hotels in

    the market as well as the sizable convention center.

    Medical districts with a stronger focus on servicing the local populations typically have fewer

    opportunities for research and development, education programs, incubators, and specialty care and

    are less likely to require greater capacity for office, medical office, and related manufacturing,

    research, and development space. As the case studies in this analysis suggest, a successful

    combination of these elements could significantly grow the amount of space demanded for medical

    districts up to 10 times that experienced in smaller medical districts and the range currently

    experienced in the BioDistrict. To understand the additional range of potential new square footage

    related to planned and future medical related operations CBRE provided the project team with

    estimates based on their experience with similar developments elsewhere. The total potential of net

    new demand related to the BioDistrict and not solely for the purposes of local health care service could

    be in the order of 1.6 million sq. ft. Some portion of this net new demand could likely be

    accommodated in existing and unoccupied buildings or spaces.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    8/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 7

    II. BioDistrict Demographics

    The BioDistrict New Orleans is located near the Central Business District (CBD) and the French

    Quarter, and extends out towards Carrollton Ave. This area has a population of 12,707 (excluding

    correctional facilities), and a total of 4,667 households with an average household size of 2.33

    persons.

    Table 1: Population Change for BioDistrict

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    BioDistrict 18,791 5,806 8,804 11,062 14,266 16,050

    Population in Prison 6,000 2,512 2,512 2,512 3,343 3,343

    Residential Population 12,791 3,294 6,292 8,550 10,923 12,707

    Source: GCR & Associates

    While the population of the BioDistrict has returned to 85% of its pre-Katrina level, the present-day

    population is situated in a housing type that differs substantially from the pre-Katrina housing stock of

    the area. Whereas most pre-storm residents were situated in small 1-4 unit residential structures,

    many current residents live within large multifamily structures that have been erected in the past two to

    three years.

    It is generally a low-income community, with a median household income of $25,327. This is less

    than half the national median household income ($52,029), and $12,000 less than the New Orleans

    median household income ($37,751). The New Orleans division between owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing was approximately 50% for each according to the U.S. Census in 2008, however

    within the BioDistrict, the distinction is skewed heavily towards renter-occupied housing, which makes

    up 80% of all occupied units. The breakdown of the demographic data is outlined in the following

    table.

    Table 2: Population and Households for BioDistrict

    BioDistrict

    Population 12,707Persons in Group Quarters (excluding correctional

    facilities)

    1,864

    Households 4,667Average Household Size 2.33Median Household Income $25,327Per Capita Income $16,209Housing

    Owner Occupied 20%

    Renter Occupied 80%

    Source: Census Bureau and GCR & Associates

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    9/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 8

    Population projections were calculated for the BioDistrict by GCR to help predict growth and the

    future market. Projections are always both a science and an art, and with the turbulent recent history

    in the city it is difficult to accurately determine exactly how the population will change moving forward.There is greater accuracy in projecting shorter timelines, so for the purposes of this report and the

    BioDistrict Plan, a projection out until 2015 was used. Essentially, the population is projected to stay

    relatively flat for the next five years, with estimates in the range of 15,900 to 16,721. The table below

    compares BioDistrict population projections for 2015 with the projections for the City of New Orleans.

    Table 3: Population Projections

    2015

    Area Moderate High

    BioDistrict

    Population 15,900 16,721Households 4,623 4,872

    New Orleans Population 379,379 399,386

    Households 147,618 155,403

    Sources: Prepared by GCR

    Because the BioDistrict Plan is focused on regenerating the job market particularly with respect

    to the biosciences industry - it is critical to understand the current employment landscape, and how the

    major facilities in the BioDistrict project future employment. The projected future employment for the

    major facilities for which data was available, and after the UMC (University Medical Center) and VA

    hospitals are constructed, are given in the following table.

    Table 4: Employment, Hospital Beds, and Patient Visits for the BioDistrict

    BioDistrict

    EmploymentMajor Facilities and Institutions 17,000 - 18,000

    Private R&D, Medical Office, and Manufacturing 4,000 - 5,000

    Total Employment 21,000 - 23,000

    Hospital Beds and University StudentsTotal Students 7,600Hospital Beds 1,000

    Patient VisitsOutpatient 1,000,000

    Inpatient 75,000

    Source: GCR interviews*Notes:1) Figures are rounded2) Total employment figures include full 20-year buildout3) Figures do not include ancillary employment outside of major institutions (i.e. business suppliers that may co-locate)4) Some figures from non-medical institutional employment are not available or included (ex. future, non-medical academicprograms)

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    10/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 9

    The current health care industry employees in the region are 57,360, as outlined below. While the

    best indicator of the true value this number likely understates the actual figure as a number of

    jurisdictions do not meet the BLS standard for disclosure. For example, Jefferson Parish, with twopublicly owned hospitals is noted as ND meaning not disclosed. These are relatively high-paying jobs

    in an industry which is estimated to have a low unemployment rate locally. Net new employment

    directly for institutions in the district alone is estimated to account for an increase in the order of 10-

    15% for these high paying jobs in the region.

    Table 5: New Orleans Health Care Employment

    Industry New Orleans MSA Employment

    Health Care & Social Assistance 56,696Testing Laboratories 538

    Physical, Engineering, and Biological Research 107Research and Development in Biotechnology 19

    Total 57,360

    Source: 2009 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

    Member Institutions

    The BioDistrict hosts many centers of employment; the following are the primary medical and civic

    institutions for which data was provided:

    Tulane University. All downtown Tulane operations, including the Tulane School of PublicHealth and the Tulane Medical Center;

    Xavier University. A notable university in biological/life sciences and pre-medical education;

    Louisiana State University Health Center. Central Business District employees;

    City of New Orleans City Hall. Also included is the Criminal Justice Complex;

    Union Passenger Terminal. Intermodal facility served by Amtrak and Greyhound Lines;

    Future UMC Hospital. Planned for construction.

    Future VA Hospital. Planned for construction.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    11/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 10

    BioDistrict New Orleans

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    12/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 11

    III. Case Studies

    In an effort to provide a more robust analysis of the potential programming for the BioDistrict,

    AECOM used three case study medical districts of similar scale for comparative purposes. Within

    each district, AECOM focused on data related to employment, beds, patient visits, retail, long-term

    stay facilities, office space, and residential offerings as they related to the medical industry.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    13/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 12

    Illinois Medical District (IMD) Chicago, IL

    The Illinois Medical District (IMD) is a 560-acre site on Chicagos Near West Side, and is home to

    over 40 medical, educational, and technological institutions. This section provides an overview of

    information on demographics, major institutions, employment, and visitors.

    Member Institutions

    Although the IMD hosts over 40 member institutions, the following four are the primary medical

    institutions:

    John H. Stroger, Jr. Hospital of Cook County. The county operates Cook County Hospital,

    a teaching facility with one of the busiest emergency services in the Midwest and the nation;

    University of Illinois at Chicago. UICs Colleges of Medicine, Pharmacy, and Dentistry arelocated in the District and UICs main campus is located just east of the IMD. UIC College of

    Medicine is the largest medical school in the world;

    Rush-Presbyterian-St. Lukes Medical Center. The medical center is a private medical

    research and educational hospital;

    VA Chicago Healthcare System. This is one of the largest VA facilities in the nation.

    The districts other member institutions are a mix of public and private institutions, ranging from

    private companies to professional associations. According to the IMD Commission, the IMD creates

    50,000 direct and indirect jobs and upwards of $34 million in local taxes, making it an important

    economic engine for the City of Chicago.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    14/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 13

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    15/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 14

    Memphis Medical Center Memphis, TN

    The Memphis Medical Center is the approximately 800-acre district located between downtown

    and midtown Memphis, TN, and is home to many medical and biosciences research facilities. It is

    located within walking distance of historic downtown Beale St., the states top tourist attraction.

    Member Institutions

    The main medical institutions that are included in this case study are:

    St. Judes Childrens Research Hospital. One of the worlds premier pediatric cancer

    research facilities;

    Regional Medical Center at Memphis. The Med is a major regional healthcare provider

    and one of the largest medical and surgical teaching hospitals for the University of TennesseeHealth Science Center;

    VA Memphis Healthcare System. Services nearly 200,000 veterans living in a 53-county

    area near Memphis;

    Le Bonheur Childrens Medical Center. Teaching childrens hospital that is completing a

    $340 million, 610,000 square-foot new hospital;

    Methodist University Hospital. The largest and most comprehensive hospital in the

    Methodist Healthcare System;

    Memphis Mental Health Institute. A recently opened 103,000 square foot facility replaces

    the original 1962 outdated building.

    The Memphis Medical Center provides a good reference for the BioDistrict, as there is a similarly

    coordinated effort by major stakeholders in the area to coordinate growth in the biosciences industry in

    the area.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    16/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 15

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    17/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 16

    University of Alabama at Birmingham Medical Center District Birmingham,

    AL

    The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Medical Center District is a 250-acre portion of

    downtown Birmingham. The area directly to the southwest is home to the UAB campus, and the

    Medical Center District it includes, is largely made up of facilities directly related to the UAB Health

    System.

    Member Institutions

    The main medical institutions that are included in this case study are:

    UAB Hospital. A new 885,000 square foot, 11-story building opened in 2004. Houses a 900-

    bed facility that is the centerpiece of the UAB Health System;

    The Kirklin Clinic. Specially designed outpatient care center with more than 700 physicians;

    Callahan Eye Foundation Hospital. Opened in 1963 as an eye hospital to serve anyone

    regardless of ability to pay. Offers an ophthalmology residency program that has trained over

    200 ophthalmologists. Became part of the UAB Health System in 1997;

    Cooper Green Mercy Hospital. County hospital which is run by Jefferson County Health

    System. Recently underwent a $28 million extensive renovation;

    Childrens. Teaching hospital affiliated with UAB School of Medicine, and the states only

    Level I pediatric trauma center;

    VA Birmingham Healthcare System. 313-bed tertiary care facility serving veterans in the VA

    Southeast Network.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    18/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 17

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    19/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 18

    Summary Tables

    Below is summary information relating demographics, employment, hospital beds, and patient

    visits for the case studies. This data was leveraged along with current and projected BioDistrict data

    to determine the potential size and scale of additional development. The following tables outline the

    population information as well as the employment and hospital information.

    Table 6: Case Study Population and Households

    IMD Memphis UAB

    Population 13,688 6,845 5,290Persons in Group Quarters 1,815 984 1,434

    Households 4,947 3,637 2,425Average Household Size 2.40 1.61 1.59

    Median HH Income $33,620 $12,606 $22,237Per Capita Income $19,571 $13,149 $17,107

    Housing

    Owner Occupied 25% 7% 11%

    Renter Occupied 75% 93% 89%

    Source: ESRI 2009

    Table 7: Case Study Employment, Hospital Beds, and Patient Visits

    IMD Memphis UAB

    Employment (Major Facilities) Full Time 18,726 11,417 13,904

    Part Time n/a n/a n/a

    Student Workers n/a n/a n/aTotal 18,726 11,417 13,904

    Hospital Beds 1,831 1,375 1,921Patient Visits

    Outpatient 2,166,747 869,942 2,053,247

    Inpatient 81,935 55,831 64,281

    Source: VA Website, Rush 2009 Annual Report, 2009 American Hospital Association,IMD Website, Memphis Business Journal 2010, ESRI, UAB Facts & Figures 2010,2009 American Hospital Association, VA Website

    The BioDistrict has a population size more comparable to the IMD and larger than the Memphis

    and Birmingham facilities. This is mainly due to the size of the BioDistrict with respect to the other

    areas, as well as the amount of residential space within each. The UAB and Memphis districts are in

    downtown areas with minimal residential space and a concentration of medical, retail, and other

    facilities that attract daytime populations.

    In terms of median household income, the BioDistrict falls in the middle to high-end of the sample

    size. The Memphis Medical Center District is particularly low-income, at $12,606 median household

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    20/45

    AECOM Project No. 18438 Page 19

    income. Also of note regarding households is the percentage of owner vs. renter occupied units.

    While similar to the IMD in Chicago, both UAB and Memphis skew heavily towards renter-occupied

    housing, at 89% and 93% respectively.

    This number of hospital beds a metric that helps determine the size and scale of the hospitals in

    the districts is generally higher in the case study samples. There are nearly twice as many beds in

    the IMD and UAB, and Memphis includes a proximate number of beds to these. The hospitals in these

    case studies also handle nearly (Memphis) or greater than twice (UAB, IMD) the number of inpatients

    than the BioDistrict is projected to accommodate. Again, this is not surprising given the greater

    number of hospital beds to the BioDistrict. The number of outpatients in the samples varies as well,

    from twice the amount projected in the BioDistrict (1,081,288) for the IMD and UAB, to 20% less for

    Memphis (869,942). These numbers are highly dependent on the type of hospitals and facilities with

    each district. The UAB, for example, is home to the Kirklin Clinic, a unique facility dedicated to

    outpatient care with over 700 physicians.

    These cases provide a variety of examples for comparative analysis for the BioDistrict and any

    ancillary programming that will be a part of the BioDistrict plan.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    21/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 20

    IV. Retail

    This section focuses on the retail market within the BioDistrict, and what the possibilities are in

    terms of expansion and development of certain types of retail to support the workers and households

    within the BioDistrict. In the following analysis, the comparison between the case studies reveals that

    the BioDistrict has the lowest ratio of retail space to the projected number of employees and

    households. Thus it is evident that there is likely an opportunity for increasing the retail space in the

    BioDistrict.

    Initially, AECOM determined the total current expenditure on convenience retail and food and

    beverage within the BioDistrict based on median household income and the Bureau of Labor

    Statistics (BLS) data on spending patterns. This calculation resulted in the base size and scale of

    the market to be in the area of $70 million annually, as seen in the table below.

    Given the mobility of retail spending AECOM also calculated the comparable level of spending in

    a buffer area around the BioDistrict and found it to be an additional $128 million in spending on

    similar items, goods, and services. While much of this spending will likely gravitate to established

    retail areas in Lakeview, Mid-City, Uptown, West Bank, and Metairie, some portion of this spending

    could be captured within the BioDistrict. Total spending for these two market areas is estimated at

    roughly $200 million annually for convenience retail, food and beverage.

    Table 8: Convenience and Food & Beverage Expenditure for the BioDistrict

    BioDistrict BioDistrict Expanded

    Category Total % of Retail Total % of Retail

    Food $53,483,224 76% $150,585847 76%

    Food at Home $34,956,605 49% $98,422,824 49%

    Food Away from Home $18,526,619 26% $52,163,023 26%

    Alcohol $2,922,581 4% $8,228,735 4%Personal Products and Services $4,803,198 7% $13,523,747 7%Tobacco Products $3,977,251 6% $11,198,235 6%

    Miscellaneous $5,591,024 8% $15,741,927 8%

    Total $70,777,276 100% $199,278,491 100%

    Source: BLS, U.S. Census, GCR & AssociatesNote: Based on Median HH Income for each Study Area

    This market can be expected to grow as the population would expand as the BioDistrict plan is

    implemented and repopulation continues throughout the area. Also, as the daytime population of

    workers expands, there will also be an opportunity for the convenience retail market to grow.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    22/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 21

    The offerings in the BioDistrict in terms of retail categories were also analyzed. When comparing

    retail building total rentable building area (RBA), it became clear that when compared to other similar

    medical districts, the BioDistrict has less available retail space. The next table outlines the retail datawithin the BioDistrict, while the subsequent table shows the case study comparison.

    Pulling from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) office spending patterns

    survey, AECOM reviews here estimates of normal spending patterns by daytime employees. Of all

    office and professional workers, the ICSC estimates that some 1.1 shopping trips are made per

    employee every week on average. Of those employees who do shop during working days (62%) the

    average number of trips per week is 2.7. Altogether, some 34% of all trips are made in areas close to

    the place of work.

    Table 9: Office Worker Stats - Daily Retail

    Av. Weekly Retail Trips (of All Office Workers) 1.1Av. Weekly Retail Trips (of Shoppers) 2.7

    Percentage of Workers Who Shop During Day 62%Percentage of Workers Who Shop Near Work 34%

    Spend Estimates Per Worker

    Av. Weekly Av. Annual

    Shoppers Goods $55.80 $2,678Convenience Goods $40.10 $1,925

    Total Retail $95.90 $4,603Source: Office Worker Retail Spending Patterns - International Council of Shopping Centers

    The ICSC estimates that the weekly level of expenditures on all types of retail goods (excluding

    F&B) is in the area of $95 per week on average. After adjusting for holidays and other factors, the

    average annual spend for workers on retail items is estimated to be $4,600 on all items. Of this figure

    a slightly higher amount is spent on Shopping Goods, defined by the survey as apparel, home

    items, and non-convenience retail items. The average weekly spend for such goods is estimated to

    be around $55, or $2,700 annually after accounting for normal working schedules. For Convenience

    Goods, which the survey defines as newspapers, cosmetics, snacks, etc., the average weekly

    spending is around $40, or roughly $1,900 annually after accounting for non-working days.

    Given that the market under consideration already has a notable amount of destination retail and

    this is a key focus in other areas of the downtown most notable towards the river on Canal Street

    convenience goods are used for the purpose of estimating non F&B retail demand from employees in

    the BioDistrict. Convenience Goods are those more closely related to personal care and necessary,

    every-day items. Estimates for such goods are shown in the following table. The other and groceries

    categories comprise the most significant proportion of these types of goods at 26, and 23 percent,

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    23/45

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    24/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 23

    total). All totaled, the average worker spends in the order of $1,200 annually on lunch, most of which

    is nearby their place of work.

    Table 12: Office Worker Lunch Habits Detailed

    Type of Est. Percent Av. Weekly Spend Av. Annual Spend

    Sit-Down 19% $4.71 $226Fast Food 19% $4.71 $226

    Deli/ Grocery 27% $6.85 $329Cafeteria 3% $0.86 $41

    Food Court 4% $1.00 $48From Home 24% $6.14 $294

    Other 4% $1.14 $55

    Total 100% $25.40 $1,219

    Source: Office Worker Retail Spending Patterns - International Council of Shopping Centers

    Note: Itemized estimates based on weighted average of responses

    According to data from CoStar a national source for commercial real estate information the

    BioDistrict has almost half the amount of retail space when compared the IMD, the district with the

    next highest amount of available square footage. Utilizing the CoStar data facilitated a comparison of

    equivalent data across each of the medical districts. With the implementation of the BioDistrict plan,

    there will likely be an influx of employees and households and the possibility for increasing retail

    space in specific areas of the BioDistrict.

    When compared to the expected level of employment in the BioDistrict, as well as the number of

    households, it becomes even more apparent that there will likely be a need for growth in retail

    offerings. The case study districts adequately support much greater ratios, in some cases upwards of

    three times as high, as displayed in the table below.

    Table 13: Retail Space Compared to Employment and Households

    Retail/Employment Retail/Households

    BioDistrict 108 390IMD 172 653

    Memphis 571 1,236

    UAB 469 2,690

    Source: AECOM

    Note: Ratios based on MajorFacility Employment

    AECOM estimated potential near-term demand over the next 5 years primarily from the existing

    BioDistrict and the eventual employees on the site, as well as some amount of potential demand from

    the buffer area surrounding the BioDistrict. The results and estimates are shown in the table that

    follows. For out-years beyond the initial 5-year period, AECOM further considered expansion in the

    population of the BioDistrict (largely from rental residential units for new employees), and expansion

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    25/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 24

    in the population and household base for the area directly surrounding the BioDistrict. In addition, the

    assumption was made that a grocery offering may be achievable in this out-year period.

    Table 14: Initial Retail Program (5 Years) - Net Demand

    Spending BioDistrict Employees BioDistrict Buffer

    Food at Home $34,956,605 $0 $63,466,219

    Food Away From Home $18,526,619 $35,017,000 $33,636,404

    Convenience $17,294,053 $36,575,000 $31,398,591

    Penetration BioDistrict Employees BioDistrict Buffer

    Food at Home 0% 0% 0%

    Food Away From Home 15% 35% 8%

    Convenience 25% 30% 10%

    Site Spending BioDistrict Employees BioDistrict Buffer

    Food at Home $0 $0 $0

    Food Away From Home $2,778,993 $12,255,950 $2,690,912

    Convenience $4,323,513 $10,972,500 $3,139,859

    Sales Per Sq. Ft. BioDistrict Employees BioDistrict Buffer

    Food at Home $300 $300 $300

    Food Away From Home $450 $450 $450

    Convenience $300 $300 $300

    Resulting Net Sq. Ft. BioDistrict Employees BioDistrict Buffer

    Food at Home 0 0 0

    Food Away From Home 6,176 27,235 5,980

    Convenience 14,412 36,575 10,466

    Source: AECOM

    Summary estimates for the 5, 10, and 20 year increments are given below.

    Table 15: Retail Sq. Ft. - Increments by Period

    5-Year 10-Year 20-Year

    Food at Home 0 49,000 0

    Food Away From Home 39,000 2,000 0

    Convenience 61,000 4,000 0

    Increment Total 100,000 55,000 0

    Cumulative Total 100,000 155,000 155,000

    Source: AECOM

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    26/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 25

    New potential retail demand in the area is estimated to come primarily from area residents and

    employees of the major institutions nearby. AECOM estimates for a mix comprised mainly from

    convenience retail offerings and services and out-of-home (non-grocery) food and beverage offerings.Specialty and destination retail do not fit well with the proposed set of uses and functions for the site

    area and are an explicit target for other areas of the city, most notably down Canal St. and towards

    the river. For convenience retail we envision offerings which are a combination of retail (personal

    care, drugstore, reading materials, etc.) and convenience services (dry cleaning, daycare, etc.). Food

    and beverage offerings are expected to skew towards lunch offerings such as quickserve and lower-

    cost sit-down options (fast food, deli/ grocery, etc.). After the BioDistrict household count grows,

    additional offerings similar to these as well as a grocery store may be possible. While it may be

    possible to grow the quantity of retail beyond this initial program in the future, this would likely require

    more significant, neighborhood-oriented anchor tenants such as grocery, fitness center, or other big

    box concepts.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    27/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 26

    V. Residential

    The residential rental market in the BioDistrict and the nearby area shows current demand to be

    high for newer units in multifamily buildings due to high occupancy rates and the premiums that the

    rental facilities are charging. Within the BioDistrict, owner-occupied housing only represents 20% of

    all households, thus the rental market dominates the residential landscape and would likely be the

    focus of any new residential developments. This is typical of the other medial districts reviewed for

    the purposes of this analysis as these types of employees often gravitate to housing nearby their

    places of work.

    The following table outlines the number of units that currently exist, are in pending developments,

    and have been in pending development for several years as reported in a 2006 ERA/AECOM report

    on New Orleans completed for the Unified New Orleans Plan District 1 Downtown.

    Table 16: Summary of Current and Future Rental Units in BioDistrict

    Housing Type Area Units

    BioDistrict 906Current Large Multi-Family Rental

    Surrounding Area 1,692BioDistrict 134

    Pending (Since 2006)Surrounding Area 1,575

    BioDistrict 212Pending (New)

    Surrounding Area 1,068

    BioDistrict 1,252Total

    Surrounding Area 4,335

    Source: GCR Interviews, ERA Report 2006

    There would be 5,587 total units that would be available within the BioDistrict if all of the pending

    developments were to come online which AECOM views as highly unlikely. These units would be

    within the BioDistrict and the surrounding area (defined as the area between the BioDistrict and the

    next major thoroughfare on all sides). The high occupancy rates of upwards of 90%+ in the current

    large and newer multi-family facilities suggest that the influx of new residents in the BioDistrict may

    capture a notable portion of the rental market, and most likely justify additional development at some

    level either in the newly proposed developments or developments not yet proposed. There is some

    skepticism that the turbulent development market in New Orleans will affect the completion of someof the pending projects. In particular, around 1,700 units that are pending have been on the horizon

    since 2006.

    When comparing the ratio of employment to the number of households within each district in the

    following table, the BioDistrict compares favorably with the IMD and Memphis. UAB has much higher

    employment with respect to the number of households, and could signify that there are other local

    market residential patterns impacting demand for residential in that district. Because the ratio for the

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    28/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 27

    BioDistrict is based on the completion of the pending developments, there is a need to expand the

    existing rental market by at least what is already in pending development. If these projects do not

    come to fruition, there may be a lack of housing that would need to be filled by new developmentprojects as part of the BioDistrict Plan.

    Table 17: Comparison of Employment Levels to District Households

    Employment/Households

    BioDistrict 3IMD 3

    Memphis 3

    UAB 5

    Source: AECOM

    Note: Ratios based on Major Facility

    Employment

    GCR and Associates provided detailed information on current residential offerings in a separate

    report, and AECOMs data is based on an aggregation of that data.

    Forecast estimates provided by GCR show modest household growth in the BioDistrict into the

    future, with most household growth in the buffer area surrounding the BioDistrict. This nearby

    projected household growth is related primarily to the redevelopment of public housing into mixed-

    income, affordable housing communities. Given the high propensity of medical district employees

    seen in other similar districts to rent rather than own their own homes, the fact that such employees

    gravitate towards their place of work, the performance of newer multifamily housing in the BioDistrict

    showing robust pricing and occupancy levels, and increasing employment levels in the BioDistrict,

    there is likely notable potential for residential offerings in the BioDistrict, particularly rental residential

    in the near term. Estimates are shown in the table that follows.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    29/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 28

    Table 18: Initial Residential Program (5-Years) - New Demand

    Rental Ownership

    District Employees 75% 25%BioDistrict Household Growth (2015) 75% 25%

    Units Demanded

    District Employees 14,250 4,750

    BioDistrictHousehold Growth (2015) 75 25

    Total 14,325 4,775

    Penetration

    District Employees 8% 0%

    BioDistrictHousehold Growth (2015) 100% 100%

    BioDistrict Unit Demand

    District Employees 1,140 0BioDistrictHousehold Growth (2015) 75 25

    Total 1,215 25

    Source: AECOM

    AECOM estimates for around 1,200 residential units in the BioDistrictover the next 5 years. The

    preponderance of these units are anticipated to come from new employees for the major institutions

    in the BioDistrict. After the initial 5-year time period when the area has been more fully developed

    and more abundant community and neighborhood services are available, AECOM estimates that

    some number of the site employees may opt to live in owner-occupied housing nearby their place of

    employment. This proportion is estimated to be in the 2%-3% range, equating to an additional

    potential of roughly 500 700 additional owner occupied units in the BioDistrict. For the purposes of

    this analysis AECOM distributes these units over years 5 to 20. Given the large number of proposed

    but undeveloped residential projects in and around the site area it is unclear at this time how many of

    these units would need to be in new, as yet un-proposed developments. Nevertheless, this does

    provide a range of the order of magnitude of residential development related to the redevelopment of

    the BioDistrict.

    Table 19: Residential Units. - Increments by Period

    5-Year 10-Year 20-YearOwner Occupied 25 300 300

    Rental 1,200 100 100

    Increment Total 1,225 400 400

    Cumulative Total 1,225 1,625 2,025Source: AECOMNote: Numbers may not add due to rounding

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    30/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 29

    VI. Long-Term Stay Facilities and Meeting Space

    New Orleans is a significant national tourist destination, and has a notable hotel stock, convention

    space, and meeting space. With the development of the BioDistrict, there may be a need for these

    ancillary resources to support the hospital and medical center visitors. However, as the table below

    shows, occupancy is currently around 60% for New Orleans hotels, and adding to this market might

    be unnecessary as well as difficult in the current environment. Nevertheless, long-term stay for

    medical related visits generally requires a different offering and different price point than is currently

    available in the New Orleans market.

    Table 20: New Orleans Hotel Occupancy

    2009

    Occupancy 60.0%ADR (Average Daily Rate) $132.69

    RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) $79.67

    Source: PKF Hospitality Research (Excludes New Orleans East)

    As opposed to strictly developing new hotel space, there may be a need for long-term stay

    facilities that could be directly associated with the BioDistrict and that would not directly compete with

    surrounding area hotels. There is currently only one long-term stay facility in the BioDistrict, and this

    offering is notably different than comparable medical-related long-term stay facilities in other medical

    districts reviewed as part of this analysis.

    Table 21: Existing BioDistrict Long Term Stay Facilities

    Hotel Name Address Rooms Low Rate High Rate

    Clarion Inn & Suites New Orleans 1300 Canal St 157 $129.00 $399.00

    Source: GCR & Associates, Inc.

    AECOM worked to estimate the future demand for patients and families that may require long-

    term stay facilities. Analysis started with estimates of medical visitors from outside of the

    metropolitan New Orleans area, and that might use or require some sort of long-term stay facilities.

    Based on interviews with current facilities in the BioDistrict, the following table illustrates these

    estimates.

    Table 22: Patients Visiting BioDistrict Hospitals from Outside New Orleans

    HospitalEst. Percentage Outside Metro New

    Orleans

    Tulane Hospital 15-18%

    UMC Hospital 12%

    Source: Based on GCR interviews

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    31/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 30

    With over 1.1 million patients expected to the BioDistrict, this means that anywhere from 130,000-

    200,000 could be coming from outside New Orleans based on these estimates. If some number of

    these patients stay in the area overnight, there could be a new market for long-term stay facilities.This is especially true if they are inpatients or are receiving longer-term care such as chemotherapy.

    These types of scenarios generally mean that there will be family members that might accompany the

    patient and require accommodation.

    It is important to note that there are some other locations in the area surrounding the BioDistrict

    listed in the following table. However, these facilities are also serving the Central Business District,

    and may not provide the necessary proximity to the BioDistrict that would be required by hospital

    visitors. Additionally, they have similar offerings and price points to the Clarion Inn and Suites in the

    BioDistrict, which is unlikely to fit the needs of patients requiring long-term stay facilities.

    Table 23: Long-Term Stay Facilities in Surrounding Area

    Hotel Name Address Rooms Low Rate High Rate

    Homewood Suites New Orleans French Qtr 901 Poydras St 166 $139 $189Residence Inn New Orleans Downtown 345 St Joseph St 231 $139 $209Marriott Execustay 925 Common 925 Common n/a $2,300/mo $3,200/moGravier Place 837 Gravier Place n/a $1,200/mo $1,600/mo

    Union Lofts 334 Carondelet 33 $1,730/mo $2,610/mo

    Source: GCR & Associates, Inc.

    AECOM conducted a series of case studies for comparable long-term stay offerings related to

    medical districts in other parts of the country. The number of available rooms in comparable

    developments range significantly from 10 to 270 in the selected developments, with an average of

    roughly 110. While room rates range as well they are typically $65 to $110. Offerings are generally a

    large unit (often equivalent to a studio apartment) which is combinable with other nearby unit(s).

    Management is sometimes non-profit for this sort of offering. The need for these offerings is related

    directly to critical-care, longer-term treatments (ex. chemotherapy), and stays range from a typical

    minimum of 5 days to several months. Occupancy rates, especially from some of the smaller

    facilities, can be high compared to that of a standard hotel operation.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    32/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 31

    Table 24: Medical Long Term Stay Facilities Case Studies

    Name Location RoomsLowRate

    HighRate Medical District

    Extended StayAmerica Hotel Chesapeake, VA 132 $55 $75

    Portsmouth Naval MedicalCenter

    Main Stay Suites Houston, TX 92 $75 $199 Texas Medical CenterCleveland GuestHouse Cleveland, OH 231 $99 $124 Cleveland Clinic

    McElderry House Baltimore, MD 40 $66 $85Johns Hopkins Medical

    ComplexIMD Guesthouse Chicago, IL 9 $40 $50 Illinois Medical DistrictDuke Tower Durham, NC 100 $69 $85 Duke Medical CenterRonald McDonaldHouse Chicago, IL 22 $25 -

    University of ChicagoChildren's Hospital

    Kahler Inn &Suites Rochester, MN 271 $95 $135 Mayo Clinic

    Source: Facility Websites, AECOM Interviews

    The final point of analysis compares the capacity of long-term stay facilities in the BioDistrict with

    that of the case study medical districts. The number of units in each district is compared with the

    number of inpatients (who would likely drive long-term stay facilities), hospital beds, and employment.

    Table 25: Comparison of Long-Term Stay Capacity

    Inpatient/LTS Hospital Beds/LTS Employment/LTS

    BioDistrict 474 6 110

    IMD 671 15 153Memphis 235 5 48

    UAB 121 3 26

    Source: AECOM

    Note: Ratios based on Major Facility Employment

    In all cases in the table above, the BioDistrict falls in the middle, which makes it unclear that there

    is a pressing need for new facility space. However, as noted, the type of offering currently available

    through the Clarion Inn and Suites does not fit with comparable offerings related to medical districts.

    The table that follows indicates the order-of-magnitude needed for offerings that are well aligned with

    medical district patients. Overall, AECOM finds that between 90 and 120 units could be supportable

    in the BioDistrict, given the level of expected visits from out of the area that is consistent with the case

    studies indicating an average of 110 units per comparable development. This assessment dovetails

    with Tulanes proposal for a 200-bed extended stay hotel, which CBRE reports is part of Tulanes

    plans for 2021-2031 that include a new hospital along Cleveland Avenue between LaSalle and S.

    Liberty Street.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    33/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 32

    Table 26: Initial Long-Term Stay Program (5-Years) - Net Demand

    Total Inpatient Outpatient Visits 1,156,000

    Out-of-Area Visitors 165,000

    Overnight Percentage Estimate 5% to 10%

    Overnight Visit Range Estimate 8,250 to 16,500

    Overnight Visit Estimate 12,000

    Site Capture 15% to 20%

    Site Visits Range 1,800 to 2,400

    Length of Stay (Days) 15

    Site Overnight-Days Estimate 27,000 36,000

    Supportable Units (@80% Occupancy) 90 120Source: AECOM

    Potentially related to hotel and long-term stay facilities is the amount of meeting space that is

    available in the BioDistrict for medical conventions, industry meetings, etc. These offerings could

    also be developed in conjunction with office, medical office, or one of the major institutions in the

    BioDistrict as well. As part of any major medical and life sciences focused district, these types of

    meetings are common, and a major source of knowledge sharing that is essential to the growth and

    development of quality of care. The BioDistrict has 6,852 square feet of meeting space within 7

    hotels. But there is a much larger amount of meeting space in New Orleans 791,101 square feet,

    as well as the Convention Center on the riverfront.

    As later phases of development are implemented, there may be justification for dedicated

    meeting space directly related to the BioDistrict that could be more synergistic with the biomedical

    cluster being targeted.

    Table 27: BioDistrict and New Orleans Meeting Space

    Total Hotels Total Meeting Space (Sq. Ft.)

    BioDistrict 7 6,852

    New Orleans 144 791,101Source: GCR & Associates, Inc. and Smith Travel Research

    AECOMs experience elsewhere with similar medical districts indicates that most conferences

    and related spaces for medical districts are needed for meetings of 150 to 300 attendees on average;

    however, some conferences of 500 to 600 attendees could be possible if the space were higher in

    quality and larger than that which currently exists. Using a planning factor of capacity for 400 persons

    per meeting, ratios of 15 sq. ft. per person for the core banquet and divisible meeting space, as well

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    34/45

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    35/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 34

    VII. Office and Medical Office Space

    Adequate office, medical office, and related manufacturing space can be a critical component in a

    medical district for general support businesses that serve the district, as well as for doctors offices

    and research organizations that might be affiliated with local hospitals. Strong research and

    teaching-hospital combinations are the core way to extend the economic impact of medical districts.

    The BioDistrict has a large amount of office space, but has relatively low occupancy rates, implying

    that net new demand may be better accommodated in existing buildings elsewhere in the BioDistrict.

    The oversupply of space appears to be less prominent for medical office in the BioDistrict.

    Table 28: BioDistrict Office Space

    All Office Medical

    Number of Buildings 77 15Total Rentable Building Area (RBA) 7,356,396 467,452Occupied Square Foot 4,938,649 421,055Occupied Percentage 67% 90%

    Total Average Rate (TAR) $14.74 $14.73

    Source: Transwestern Commercial Services; data provided May, 2010

    In comparison to the other case studies, the BioDistrict has much less medical office than the

    IMD or the Memphis Medical Center, but not UAB. All of the case study samples have a significantly

    higher occupancy rate than the area under consideration.

    Table 29: Case Study Office Space

    IMD Memphis UAB

    All Office Medical All Office Medical All Office Medical

    Number of Buildings 167 58 132 47 193 33

    Total Rentable Building Area (RBA) 6,985,992 3,643,481 4,781,154 2,868,877 3,127,318 263,280

    Occupied Square Foot 6,785,836 3,611,166 4,720,770 2,860,062 2,916,465 254,199

    Occupied Percentage 97.1% 99.1% 98.7% 99.8% 93.3% 96.6%

    Total Average Rate (TAR) $16.47 $14.91 $13.95 $14.04 $16.24 $10.36

    Source: CoStar 2010 QTD

    Finally, when comparing the ratio of medical office space to employment, the BioDistrict falls on

    the low end. Importantly, the range is significant and likely reflects the difference in orientation of

    services between the various medical districts. Medical districts with a stronger focus on servicingthe local populations and fewer opportunities for research and development, education, and specialty

    care offerings are less likely to require greater capacity for office, medical office, and related

    manufacturing, research, and development space. As the case studies suggest, a successful

    combination of these elements could significantly grow the amount of space demanded for medical

    districts up to 10 times that experienced in smaller medical districts and the range currently

    estimated for in the BioDistrict.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    36/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 35

    Table 30: Comparison of Medical Office Space Capacity

    Medical/Employment

    BioDistrict 26IMD 194Memphis 251

    UAB 18

    Source: AECOM

    Note: Ratios based on Major Facility Employment

    To understand the additional range of potential new square footage related to planned and future

    medical related operations and development CBRE provided the project team with estimates based

    on their experience with similar developments elsewhere. The total potential of net new demand

    related to the BioDistrict could be in the order of 1.6 million sq. ft., some portion of which could likely

    be accommodated in existing and unoccupied buildings or spaces.

    Table 31: Office, R&D, and Manufacturing - Increments by Period

    5 Year 10 Year 20 Year

    R&D/ Institutional 50,000 200,000 500,000

    Medical Office 25,000 25,000 50,000

    Manufacturing 100,000 400,000 250,000

    Increment Total 175,000 625,000 800,000

    Cumulative Total 175,000 800,000 1,600,000

    Source: CBRE

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    37/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 36

    VIII. Phasing and Target Locations

    The BioDistrict comprises a broad spectrum of activity in the Mid-City area as well as the fringes

    of the Central Business District. Parts of this are distressed, some areas are reasonably well kept,

    and the land uses themselves range from heavier industrial / utilities, higher-density office and

    residential, and neighborhood density housing and retail. AECOM Economics has toured the area in

    detail and has an understanding of the assets and liabilities of the target area. We have concluded

    that the geographic extent of this BioDistrict is so large that, while the land plan must create a

    seamless land use concept for the entire area, the somewhat soft marketplace will dictate a phased

    implementation of development and clustering strategy. This development strategy must help solidify

    some of the areas that are in transition, but more importantly, create magnet and core areas that can

    be the basis or catalyst for redevelopment over time.

    We have identified a number of development opportunities that would be feasible to pursue in

    both the near- and mid-term. It is our recommendation that much of the initial community efforts

    particularly if there is a program to revitalize the lower-density housing with a targeted incentive

    program be focused between the I-10 corridor and Broad along the two or three blocks either side

    of Broad. This area, too, could be a target for community-serving amenities like restaurants, as there

    are several in this corridor that already have established their reputation and clientele.

    Along Perdido and Gravier there are still large surface parking lots that would be excellent

    locations to provide sites for both office buildings and parking garages. Likewise, close in there are

    smaller lots along Canal closer to I-10 that have some stability now and would be appropriate for

    smaller medical offices and infill development. There has been some discussion about the concept of

    a meeting facility or medical mart. Close to the hospital activities and planned development in the

    vicinity of Prier and Tulane are sites that could be centrally located to the core activity of the medical

    district. Charity Hospital has also been mentioned as a potential site for a mixed-use development

    which could include meetings and mart uses.

    The area around Loyola / Perdido / Gravier would be a good location for mixed-use residential

    development that could be combined with ground-floor retail and have a potential link to the

    Superdome redevelopment plan. This area would help to reinforce the plans of the DDD for this area,

    bring 24/7 activity to this part of the downtown, and allow residents to tap into the amenities of the

    Warehouse District, French Quarter and Downtown and be part of the larger picture for the

    Superdome plan.

    A key decision concerning land use and development is Charity Hospital. It is centrally located

    within the BioDistricts core and would be instrumental in creating a new image for the whole process.

    However, there are issues related to historic designation and environmental remediation particularly

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    38/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 37

    related costs that must be resolved with the State before any financially viable ideas can be further

    developed.

    Initial development initiatives should concentrate on the activities that make the area appealing to

    potential employees, particularly affordable, well-located housing that has access to transportation

    and amenities as well as the development that will facilitate the business activity in the BioDistrict

    such as medical office, support medical services and daytime retail.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    39/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 38

    IX. Incentive Options

    This section includes selected incentive programs that may be applied in the BioDistrict.

    Federal Incentive Options

    Historic Tax Credits

    Federal tax credits of up to 20% are available for rehabilitation of properties placed on the

    National Historic Register.

    New Markets Tax Credits

    The federal government has funded the NMTC program since 2002, and currently, there is $3.5

    billion allocated annually through the program. NMTC awards are given to qualifying banks and

    finance institutions that, in turn, make them available for projects meeting certain criteria. NMTC is an

    especially attractive opportunity in Louisiana because of the large number of State enterprises who

    have received allocations after hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In addition, there is a State NMTC

    program funded with $200 million. The NMTC investments are targeted for use by projects providing

    the following in qualifying Low Income Community census tracts:

    Create or maintain jobs

    Increase wages

    Finance or assist Low Income Community businesses

    Finance or assist minority or women owned businesses

    Finance or assist community benefit businesses or community benefit real estate projects

    Facilitate wealth creation or asset accumulation

    Provide goods or services

    Create environmentally sustainable outcomes

    Finance real estate businesses which reduce rent or provide more flexible leases

    NMTC financing can be used as equity for debt financing and is transferable. The credits can be

    used on top of other sources of incentive financing. Many times, developers will piggy-back NMTCs

    on top of historic credits at both the federal and state levels. The credit is applied to the investors

    federal income taxes. The amount of the credits is up to 39% at the federal level and additional 25%

    from the State. Local banks or Community Development Entities with NMTC allocations include

    Capital One, Whitney, Morgan Keegan, and others.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    40/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 39

    State Incentive Options

    Louisiana businesses that create jobs in specific qualifying areas may be eligible for state

    incentive options. The areas designated for EZ incentives usually exhibit high unemployment, low

    income and/or substantial percentage of residents receiving government assistance. Administered by

    Louisiana Economic Developments Business Incentives Services, The Board of Commerce and

    Industry is tasked with application approval. The requirements for approval include creation of five

    net new jobs with 35% of the net new jobs meeting one of four Certification Requirements. Advance

    Notification filing is required. More information regarding the following incentive programs is available

    from Louisiana Economic Development.

    Enterprise Zone

    The Enterprise Zone (EZ) program provides Louisiana Income and Franchise tax credits for

    Louisiana businesses that create jobs in specific qualifying areas. The areas designated for EZ

    incentives usually exhibit high unemployment, low income and/or substantial percentage of residents

    receiving government assistance. Administered by Louisiana Economic Developments Business

    Incentives Services, The Board of Commerce and Industry is tasked with application approval. The

    requirements for approval include creation of five net new jobs with 35% of the net new jobs meeting

    one of four Certification Requirements. Advance Notification filing is required.

    The benefits of the EZ program include the following:

    A one-time tax credit up to $2,500 for each net new job created

    Tax rebate for materials, furniture, fixtures, machinery, and equipment purchased and used

    on the EZ site and delivered during the construction period

    OR a 1.5% Refundable Investment Tax Credit based on capitalized investment for new

    projects/construction

    Quality Jobs Program

    This program provides a cash rebate to encourage targeted businesses to locate in Louisiana.

    The rebate amount is equal to 5% or 6% of annual gross payroll for new direct jobs for up to 10 years.

    In addition, businesses can also receive a 4% sales/use tax rebate on capital expenditures. Eligible

    industries include the following:

    Biotechnology or Biomedical

    Micro-manufacturing

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    41/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 40

    Software, Internet, and Telecommunications

    Environmental Technology

    Food Technology

    Advanced Materials

    Manufacturing

    Oil and Gas Field Services

    Businesses with 50% of sales from out-of-state

    In addition, businesses receiving Quality Jobs assistance must create jobs and offer basic health

    plans to employees. The benefits of the program are similar to those offered under the EZ Program

    and include payroll benefits, sales/use tax rebates, and investment tax credits. Businesses may not

    apply for aid from both programs.

    Restoration Tax Abatement

    Designed to entice expansion, restoration, improvement, and development of existing

    commercial structures and owner-occupied residences, the Restoration Tax Abatement program is

    specifically targeted in Downtown Development Districts, Economic Development Districts, and/or

    Historic Districts. Enterprise Zones and Economic Development Zones do not qualify. The benefits

    offered include a 5-year deferred property tax assessment on renovations and improvements that

    may be renewed for a second 5-year period. The tax abatement is transferable if the property is sold.

    Industrial Tax Incentive Program

    The Industrial Tax Incentive Program is designed by the State to entice manufacturers new to

    Louisiana or expanding their operations within the State. The program offers property tax abatement

    on new investment and capital additions for up to 10 years. The exemption applies to all

    improvements to land, buildings, machinery, equipment, and other property which is part of the

    manufacturing process.

    Research and Development Tax Credit

    The Research and Development Tax Credits are available to existing businesses with operating

    facilities within the State to implement or continue R&D activities. The credits provided are

    transferable but must be used in one of fifteen targeted industries. Benefits include tax credits up to

    8% of state income and corporation franchise taxes. In addition, there is a Technology

    Commercialization Credit and Jobs Program currently being debated in the Legislature.

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    42/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 41

    Industry Assistance Program

    This program provides tax exemption to manufacturers who give preference to Louisiana

    suppliers, engineers, contractors, and labor provided that the preferential treatment does not add

    expense. The applicant must demonstrate that the tax credit will assist in maintaining current

    employment levels and invest in their operation in the future.

    Tax Equalization Program

    This program is designed to attract, retain, and promote expansion of manufacturing companies,

    headquarters, and warehousing and distribution enterprises to Louisiana. The benefit provided is the

    equalization of the overall tax burden between Louisiana and a competing non-Louisiana site.

    Other Louisiana Incentives

    In addition to the incentive programs listed above, Louisiana offers the following programs for

    small businesses and entrepreneurs:

    Louisiana Motion Picture and Incentive Program The program offers state sales and use

    tax rebates for motion picture productions which spend more than $1 million within Louisiana

    Louisiana Digital Media Incentive program The program offers a similar structure and credit

    level to the Motion Picture incentive program

    Louisiana Music Tax Credit Incentive program offers tax credits up to 25% for music

    performed, composed, or recorded by Louisiana musicians or music released or published by

    a Louisiana-based company

    Microenterprise Development Program provides economic literacy training, mentoring, and

    financial counseling to underserved urban and rural communities

    Small and Emerging Business Development Program (SEBD) provides new companies

    with marketing and accounting assistance

    Bonding Assistance Program (BAP) provides small and emerging businesses with

    resources to help bid on private and public jobs

    Mentor Protg Tax Credit Program provides technical assistance to emerging construction

    businesses by offering tax credits to Mentor companies

    Louisiana Contractors Accreditation Institute provides construction management education

    and assistance

    Hudson Initiative educational program offering assistance for state procurement and public

    contracts

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    43/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 42

    Urban Entrepreneur Partnership national collaboration providing assistance to

    entrepreneurs to foster housing, job creation, and entrepreneurial development and research

    Matching Grants Program provides assistance to eligible economic development

    organizations for marketing and recruitment in the form of Regional Awards and Matching

    Grant Awards

    Local Incentive Options

    Faade grants

    In current form, AECOM understands that grants are available up to $75,000 each. AECOM believes

    that faade grant programs can be a useful tools in downtown redevelopment programs.

    In addition to the grant/loan program, other cities have instituted faade donation programs. The

    faade donation program would involve property owners donating their faades to local or state

    historical preservation entities who would then be responsible for upgrading and maintaining them to

    an agreed upon standard. This serves two main purposes: upgrade of the aesthetic appeal of the

    area and preservation of valuable historical assets.

    Tax Increment Financing (TIF)

    Tax Increment Financing (TIF) is an incentive tool that has been used frequently in similar

    development campaigns. Generally, TIF is used as a tool to spur development (especially retail

    development) in depressed areas. The State of Louisiana has a unique TIF statute in that the

    property tax rate in Louisiana is quite low. Normally, TIF would involve the capture of increased

    property taxes for re-use in a designated area. Bonds are issued to provide a site, infrastructure, etc.

    Development occurs, and the new property and sales taxes pay off the bonds. Tax revenues from

    this point on go to the appropriate government sources. However, in Louisiana, because of the

    smaller increment available from property tax TIF, sales tax TIF is also necessary. Sales tax TIF is

    historically more volatile than property tax TIF. The main misunderstanding in the community

    regarding TIF is that there is a diversion of current taxpayer dollars. This is not true. The current

    level of property and sales taxes in the designated area is not affected. Only the increase in tax

    levels causes a portion of the increased taxes to be captured within the district. In short, properly

    designed and implemented TIF creates development where none would occur without it and

    increases the tax base for use in the community.

    The keys to effective TIF are design and implementation. Historically, TIF is most effective when

    the following issues are addressed properly:

    TIF is used to spur development that would not occur without it

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    44/45

    AECOM DRAFT Project No. 18438 Page 43

    TIF areas are small and targeted

    TIF zones are properly managed and audited

    TIF oversight committees are populated with non-political development advocates who,

    ideally, do not have personal financial interests within or bordering the designated area

  • 8/7/2019 Real Estate Programming

    45/45

    X. General & Limiting Conditions

    Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are

    accurate as of the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of AECOM

    and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on estimates,

    assumptions and other information developed by AECOM from its independent research effort,

    general knowledge of the industry, and information provided by and consultations with the client and

    the client's representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client,

    the client's agent and representatives, or any other data source used in preparing or presenting this

    study.

    This report is based on information that was current as of April 2010 and AECOM has not

    undertaken any update of its research effort since such date.

    Because future events and circumstances, many of which are not known as of the date of this

    study, may affect the estimates contained therein, no warranty or representation is made by AECOM

    that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved.

    Possession of this study does not carry with it the right of publication thereof or to use the name

    of "AECOM" or Economics Research Associates in any manner without first obtaining the prior

    written consent of AECOM. No abstracting, excerpting or summarization of this study may be made

    without first obtaining the prior written consent of AECOM. Further, AECOM has served solely in the

    capacity of consultant and has not rendered any expert opinions. This report is not to be used inconjunction with any public or private offering of securities, debt, equity, or other similar purpose

    where it may be relied upon to any degree by any person other than the client, nor is any third party

    entitled to rely upon this report, without first obtaining the prior written consent of AECOM. This study

    may not be used for purposes other than that for which it is prepared or for which prior written

    consent has first been obtained from AECOM. Any changes made to the study, or any use of the

    study not specifically prescribed under agreement between the parties or otherwise expressly

    approved by AECOM, shall be at the sole risk of the party making such changes or adopting such

    use.

    This study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations,

    conditions and considerations.