reaching tipping point?: climate change and poverty in tajikstan

8/6/2019 Reaching Tipping Point?: Climate change and poverty in Tajikstan

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/reaching-tipping-point-climate-change-and-poverty-in-tajikstan 1/24

ReachingTippingPoint?

Climate Changeand Poverty in Tajikistan



Summary 2

Climate Change: Past, Present and Future 5

Climate Change: Poverty and Low adaptive Capacity 9

Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security 11

Climate Change and Water 14

Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction 17

Challenges o Adapting to Climate Change 19

Conclusions 21

Contents

1



Summary

The people o Tajikistan, a small, mountainous

country in Central Asia, are experiencing the

impacts o climate change. More requent

droughts and heightened extreme weather

conditions are hitting poor communities,

eroding their resilience. The country’s glaciers

are melting, bringing the danger, in the uture,

o greater water shortages and even disputes in

the wider region. Last summer’s unusually good

rains and consequent harvest brought some

relie to rural communities across Tajikistan but

the long-term trends are clear – and ominous.

Tajikistan’s plight highlights the international injustice o climate change. Tajikistan is one o the countries leastresponsible or the greenhouse gas emissions that arecausing climate change. It ranks around 109th in theworld or all greenhouse gas emissions and 129th inemissions per capita; its people emit less than 1 tonneo carbon dioxide per head, compared to nearly 20tons by citizens o North America.1

The government o Tajikistan recognises the actand importance o climate change and its impacts,but it aces serious challenges in terms o undingand lack o capacity to cope with such a potentiallyoverwhelming phenomenon. Increased unding or

research on the impacts o climate change is urgentlyneeded. Planning in high-risk environments requires

investments that are beyond the nancing capacitieso most governments acting alone.

“It’s not crisis point yet butit will be soon” Timur Idrisov, NGO, Little Earth,October 2009.

This Oxam report is based on interviews undertaken in

communities in Spitamen and Ganchi in the north and Vose, Fakhor and Temurmalik in the south in October2009. It gives an insight into how poor men and womenare experiencing climate change, what challenges theyare currently acing – and will continue to ace in theuture. It makes suggestions or what they say needs tohappen to help them cope better with climate change.

This report draws attention to the plight o poorcommunities in Tajikistan, and also highlightsOxam’s demands or a climate change deal that isboth air and sae – that agrees both the drastic cuts

that are necessary in greenhouse gas emissions andthe new unds that developing countries like Tajikistanneed to adapt. Oxam considers the United Nationsconerence on climate change at Copenhagen amissed opportunity, and the Accord that came out o it, a “climate shame”. The talks were characterized bychaos and near-collapse. The pursuit o national interestby the major powers deepened the mistrust betweendeveloped, developing and industrializing countries.2010 may be the last chance or these climatenegotiations to prove they are an eective process orstopping climate change by delivering a air, ambitiousand binding deal. The time or action is now.

“Last year was drought – or 3 years

we could not grow wheat and barley.

Because o 3 years o drought we are

not planting wheat in rain-ed lands,

people do not want to invest,” Saidshoev

Abdualim, a village elder in Vose District,

October 2009. Photo: Anita Swarup

Temurmalik District, south Tajikstan. Photo: Anita Swarup

2



Recommendations: Community Level:

• Improve access to water. Local communitiesconsider water the key priority, both or agricultureand domestic use. Climate change – notably risingtemperatures and more droughts – is putting anadditional stress on water resources. Farmerswant improved water management, water storagereservoirs, water saving techniques such as dripirrigation, and more access to sae water romboreholes.

• Improve methods o ood storage and preservation.Farmers say they want to plan or uture hard timesand store more ood.

• Provide more support and training in agriculturaltechniques, marketing and setting up agriculturalshops in which to buy and sell agricultural produceand seeds.

• Scale up better insulation o houses. Expand use o energy ecient stoves to increase people’s accessto energy or cooking and heating and to improvewomen’s health as well as reducing use o biomass

or uel. Boost biogas and solar power, and smallhydro in mountain communities. Expand use o

passive solar greenhouses to grow vegetables o-season - particularly in the winter when the ground isrozen. This helps improve ood security and providesextra nutrition or amilies.

• Understand, respect, evaluate and build upon localknowledge. In adapting to climate change, manyarmers are already using local remedies or theincreasing level o pests, or example using garlicaround ruit trees to ward o locusts and other insects.

Recommendations: National

• Support armers to adapt agriculture to ensureproduction under changing conditions. Strategiesshould include crop diversication, developmentand introduction o drought-resistant crops andseeds and improvements in livestock breeding.Climate change threatens ood security through bothseasonal changes and pressure on water availability.

• Mount public awareness campaigns on climatechange in communities, schools and media, andcampaigns at local level to raise people’s awarenessin communities, through a concerted joint eort bygovernment and civil society (non-governmental)organizations in Tajikistan.

• Centre research and policy planning on adaptation

on the needs o poor people and their key areas o concern. The social and economic impact o climatechange on poor people should be at the oreront o research and policy ormulation.

“The drought is becoming more severe

and the temperature is increasing. Last

year there was drought. The wheat plants

cannot grow as the high temperatures

aect them. We can’t harvest odder or

the animals. We need livestock to sell or

vegetables and to buy water”

Shovaliev Nurali, a armer in

Hansanbek village, Temurmalik District,

October 2009. Photo: Anita Swarup

Shibanai village - washing hanging out to dry. The village’s

only water source is the river so getting water or drinking and

washing is always a problem. Photo: Anita Swarup

3



Planning needs to take into consideration livelihoodresilience strategies, socially disaggregatedvulnerability assessments, gender-disaggregateddata and capacities or disaster risk management –

all at the local level. Scaling up community-ownedapproaches where people come together or trainingand awareness raising will be central to successulnational strategies. Women who carry much o theburden o arm and household work, must be at thecentre o adaptation strategies, and or this, gender-disaggregated data and research is necessary.

• Integrate climate planning across governmentdepartments. Climate change concerns should notbe under a particular sector – and particularly notseen as only an environmental issue - but integratedacross all sectors including agriculture, trade,transport and energy.

• Integrate climate change adaptation into nationalplanning and budgets, particularly or sustainable

development and poverty alleviation.

• Use climate change as an opportunity to scale updisaster risk reduction programmes. Strengthen theCommittee or Emergency Situations, or example onEarly Warning Systems, and the State Organisationor Hydrometeorology on monitoring glaciers,snowmelt and food hazards.

• Promote disaster risk reduction at local levels bysupporting community-based strategies. This methodis more eective and has benets that go beyond just

tackling climate-driven disasters. Ensure women are atthe centre o community-level responses.

• Research programs on climate change, its impactson natural resources, the economy and public health,development and adaptation measures.

• Build institutional and technical capacity onadaptation. Adaptation will require skilled personnel inall elds, including climate and hydrological research,geographical inormation systems, environmentalimpact assessment, protection and rehabilitationo degraded land, water use, conservation o ecosystems, agricultural and inrastructuredevelopment and health protection.

Recommendations: Regional and International†

• At a time when the urgency o the climate changechallenge is becoming blatantly clear, stand-

os between the most powerul countries at theCopenhagen Conerence have let the world headingtowards 40C global warming – a catastrophicprospect. Negotiations must get straight back ontrack to keep global warming ar below 20C andpoliticians, negotiators, scientists and the public mustcommit to sustained and ocused engagement thatdelivers a air, ambitious and binding deal in 2010.

• The Copenhagen Accord commits developedcountries to providing new and additional “ast-start”nance or adaptation and mitigation approaching

$30 billion or the period 2010-2012. This is welcome– but must be additional to existing aid pledges.Further commitments are required to meet theestimated shortall o $2 billion per year with clearcommitments on unds needed rom 2014 to 2019.

• The Accord also calls or $100 billion to be mobilizedor adaptation and mitigation by 2020, which iswelcome but only hal the minimum sum needed.Furthermore it does not say how it will mobilizedor by whom. Rich countries must clearly state thatdevelopment aid will not be pillaged to pay orclimate change. Finance must be raised separately

and be additional to aid commitments o 0.7 per cento national income.

• In Central Asia, institutions or regional co-operationmust be strengthened, in particular to monitor andmanage water resources in the light o glacial melt,higher temperatures and increases in water scarcity.

† For urther details o Oxam International’s analysis

and recommendations or action ollowing the

Copenhagen climate talks see the Oxam Brieng

Note: Climate Shame: get back to the table:

http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/climate-shame-copenhagen-reactive.html

Collecting water rom a tapstand by the side o the road. This is a job or women. Photo: Karen Robinson/Oxam

44



Climate Change: Past, Present and Future

“The eects o climate change are already visible

in higher average air and ocean temperatures,

widespread melting o snow and ice, and

rising sea levels…Globally, precipitation has

increased even as Australia, Central Asia, the

Mediterranean basin, the Sahel, the western

United States, and many other regions have seen

more requent and more intense droughts.”3

Global and regional climate patterns have changedthroughout the history o our planet.

Prior to the Industrial Revolution these changesoccurred due to natural causes but since the late1800s, scientists believe the changes have beenincreasingly infuenced by rising atmosphericconcentrations o carbon dioxide and othergreenhouse gases (GHGs) as a result o humanactivities, such as ossil-uel combustion and land-use change. Most o the excess greenhouse gases

currently in the atmosphere come rom emissionsrom the US, Europe, Australia and Japan.

“We are seeing more extreme weather conditions andmore extreme cold and moreextreme heat, particularlyin the valley…. If nothing isdone, all the glaciers willmelt and I don’t know if we

will have water in 20 years”Natalya Mirzokhonova,IMAC (Inormation Managementand Analytical Centre)

The greatest concern in Tajikistan has been anincrease in air temperature, which has serious

Increase in mean annual air temperatures over the 50 years. Source: Tajikistan Second National Communication under UNFCCC (2008).

5



implications or its glaciers and water resources.Ground air temperatures are increasing in mostdistricts and high altitude zones.4 The biggestincrease o annual mean temperature has been

at Dangara at 1.2 degree C and Dushanbe at 1.0degree C over a 65-year period. In mountainousareas, 1.0-1.2 degree C was observed in Khovaling,Faizabad and Iskashim. There has also beenan increase o the number o days maximumtemperatures have reached 40 degrees C or over. There has been an increase in east and south - east(warm) winds, and a decrease in west and south -west (cold) winds. Thunderstorms and hailstorms,both associated with cold ronts, have decreased.

Droughts will likely be more intense and requent inthe uture. One o the worst droughts was in 2000-1where, in the lowland arid region o the Amu DaryaRiver Basin (e.g. Karakalpakstan), access to waterwas halved.5 Climate change will worsen a long-termspiral o intensiying aridity in Central Asia including Tajikistan.6

According to the IPCC (2007) “the projected

decrease in mean precipitation in Central Asia will be

accompanied by an increase in the requency o very

dry spring, summer and autumn seasons. Changes

in seasonality and amount o water fows rom river

systems are likely to occur due to climate change.

Changes in runo o river basins could have a signicant eect on the power output o hydropower

generating countries like Tajikistan, which is the third-

highest producer in the world.” 7

In 2007 the Youth Ecological Centre, Dushanbe,conducted a number o surveys on people’sperceptions o climate change in Khatlon, Soghd andPamir. People interviewed particularly remembered

the unusual, intense heat o the summer o 2005,accompanied by insucient irrigation water anddiculties with grazing. In Khatlon many peoplesuered that year rom high blood pressure andheart disease. At the same time, villagers elsewherereported unusually cold winters in 2005/6 and2007/8 with abnormally heavy snowalls andsnowstorms.8

“In the last 10 years, thenatural cycles are changing.In comparison, dry spells arebecoming longer. Last year in2008 was the longest periodof drought”Pulotjon Usmonov, an agronomistrom the NGO, Saodat.

In 2008 Tajikistan suered one o the worst droughtsit has ever experienced. According to the UNHumanitarian Food Security Appeal, 2008, “rom

April onwards, temperatures across the country have

been signicantly higher than normal. In southern

Tajikistan particularly, temperatures deviated morethan +5 degree C rom the norm. Precipitation has

been signicantly lower than normal and in some

cases as much as 43 percent below average.”9

Days with extremely high temperature

Semi-days with heavy rain

6



stressed. According to a recent report by the WorldBank, ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Europeand Central Asia’, “the consequences o climate

change would overstretch many countries’ adaptive

capacity, contribute to political destabilization and trigger migration. As warming progresses, it is likely

to intensiy national and international conficts over

scarce resources.” 12

Luigi de Martino, Centre or Education and Researchin Humanitarian Action, University o Geneva, whohas studied this issue, notes, “The downstream

regions o the Amu Darya are [political] hotspots and

more areas will become like this – with water quantity

decreasing and environmental degradation – and

add to that climate change which is an exacerbating

actor.”13

“The main problem o melting glaciers is foating

broken ice and debris which can block rivers

and orm glacial lakes and reservoirs and this is

happening now. We need resources to monitor

glaciers as some are potentially very dangerous.

There are hundreds o glaciers but we only know

a ew percent” said Nailya Mustaeva, Climate

Change Specialist, Tajikistan Organisation orHydrometeorology. The State Organisation orHydrometeorology lacks the resources and capacityor the overwhelming task o monitoring all glacialactivity in Tajikistan.

The IPCC (2007) reports temperature rise in Central Asia will also lead to a higher probability o potentialdisasters such as mudfows and avalanches.

Terminus moraine

of the

Fedchenko Glacier

Change in surface area of Central Asian glaciers

in the last half of the 20th century

Tien Shan

Gissar Alai

The Pamirs and

Fedchenko glacier

Northern Afghanistan

melted area as % of the initial glacier area

Source: State Administration for hydrometeorology

Retreat of the Fedchenko Glacier terminus. Photo: V. Novikov

8



Climate Change, Poverty andLow Adaptive Capacity

A low-income country, around 53 percent o

Tajikistan’s population o seven million people

live on less than USD 1.33 per day.14 And,

although less than seven percent o its land

is arable, around two thirds o the population

depend on agriculture or a livelihood – cotton,

wheat, nuts, ruit and vegetables.

“Last year we had to sell our livestock in order to

buy wheat four – and more people went to Russia

or Dushanbe to work. In uture i these conditions

continue, we will have to move” notes Shovaliev Nurali,a armer in Hansanbek village in Temurmalik district

People in Tajikistan are resilient when aced withdiculties and adept at taking advantage o goodweather, as the 2009-cropping season showed. Timelyand well-distributed rainall, improved seeds, and wideruse o ertilizer all contributed to this improvement,according to the FAO. But challenges posed by climatechange already strain their capacity to cope and mayoverwhelm it i temperatures continue to rise. Tajikistan,according to a recent World Bank report,15 is the most

vulnerable country in the region to climate change andhas the least capacity to adapt. Adaptive capacity is theability o a system to adjust to climate change, includingclimate variability and extremes, in order to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage o opportunities,or to cope with the consequences.16

Almost two thirds o agricultural production isirrigated17 but many armers still have to makea precarious living rom rain-ed land – which isconsiderably more vulnerable to the impacts o drought and climate change. The FAO says: “The

importance o irrigation rom the glacier sources

notwithstanding, some 55% o the area sown to

winter cereals depends on precipitation during

the cropping season”. Beore the good rainsand excellent harvest in 2009, several dry years(2000/2001, 2005/6/7} posed challenges to oodsecurity. Droughts in 2000 and 2001 cost Tajikistan 5percent o its GDP.18 Continued drought in the springand summer o 2007, as well as a locust invasionurther stretched the capacities o households tosuccessully cope. Against the backdrop o increasedood insecurity, in early 2008 Tajikistan experiencedthe worst winter in decades with temperatures

alling to minus 20 degrees C. The exceptionallycold weather damaged or destroyed agricultural

assets (crops, orchards and livestock), the agingenergy inrastructure collapsed under the demandor electrical power to heat urban centres and thecold damaged rural and urban water supply systemsdue to rozen pipes and other structural problems -exacerbating lack o access to sae drinking water.

There was a 40 percent decline in agricultural yieldsollowing the harsh winter and drought.19

“The main thing for us is theland, we take all the incomeand food from the land. Wedon’t have factories to goto work. That is why we ask God for good weather,”Soqimatov Tohijon, Assistant toChie in Togoyak local government,Spitamen, north Tajikistan

It cost the economy around US $850 millionand around 2.2 million citizens experienced oodinsecurity with 800,000 o these in need o immediateassistance.20 Many winter crops were destroyed, 70percent o the livestock died, 90 percent o industrystood idle and while electricity was supplied in thecapital or 4 hours a day, rural areas were withoutelectricity or weeks. A drought and record hightemperatures in summer o 2008 ollowed the coldwinter. Tajikistan is vulnerable to a ‘compound crisis’

phenomenon such as that which threatened water,energy and ood security in the early months o 2008.21

Girl in cotton eld, south Tajikstan. Photo: Anita Swarup

9



Floods, mudfows and avalanches may increasewith climate change (or example sudden and rapidglacial melts) as they already occur regularly aroundthe spring melt. There was a particularly severe and

unprecedented food in Hamadoni district in Khatlonin 2005 caused by heavy winter snowall ollowed byvery warm weather in June and July, causing excessivesnowmelt. Over 11,000 people were evacuated. Lacko maintenance o food deences and canals were alsoculpable. Climate shocks compound cycles o poverty.When drought, foods or extreme weather conditionsdestroy crops and livelihoods, communities are thrownurther into poverty – as a result, many move away toseek work. Migration to Russia is key to Tajikistan’seconomy and remittances constitute the mostimportant income or many households in Tajikistan. These transers total about US$ 400 million to US $1bn or rom 20 percent to 50 percent o its GDP.22 In2006, almost 1m workers, mostly men and boys, wentto work in Russia.23 As populations on the margin seekwork or are orced rom their homes by extreme events,the pressure to migrate to Russia is likely to increase.

As a result o male migration, there are a signicantproportion o emale-headed households. Increasing

burdens will be placed on women as many have towork in the cotton elds as well as collect water andrewood, grow ood and manage the household.More women work in the lowest paid sectors such as

agriculture. With the closure o state-run kindergartensand the increasing reliance on the consumption o home produced oodstus, the burden o unpaid workin the home has increased rather than diminished as aresult o this transition.24

Tajikistan, like other countries in Central Asia, alreadysuers rom serious challenges to the health o itsenvironment. Soil ertility management and nutrientconservation are poor, pesticide and ertilizer usepollutes many waterways. . Floods are beingexacerbated by rampant deorestation. The nation’sorest reserves have dwindled rom 1.3 metres cubedper person in 1990 to 0.9 metres cubed per personin 2003. Deorestation has been put down to cuttingtrees, stock grazing and an increase in the number o insect pests. The increase in pests is associated withincreased temperatures. Acceleration in deorestationwas linked to the severe winter o 2007/2008 andshortages o electricity, gas and other energy supplies,orcing people to cut trees in the mountain orests.25

S l o v e n i a

C z r e c

h R e p u b l i c

H u n g

a r y

E s t o n

i a

S l o v a k i a

C r o a t i a

L i t h u

a n i a

P o l a n

d L a t v i a

R o m a

n i a

B u l g a

r i a T u

r k e y S e

r b i a

A l b a n i a

B o s n i a R u

s s i a

K a z a k h s t a

n

U k r a i n e

M a c e d o n i a

, F Y R

A r m e n i a

B e l a r u s

G e o r g

i a

M o l d o

v a

A z e r b

a i j a n

K y r g y

z R e p u b l i c

U z b e k i s

t a n

T a j i k s

t a n

T u r k m

e n i s t

a n0

5

10

15

20

25 Adaptive capacity to

climate change.

Source: Fay and Patel

(2008)

Taken from World

Bank, June 2009,

Adapting to Climate

Change in Europe and

Central Asia

T a j i k s

t a n

A l b a n i a

K y r g y z R e p u b l i c

A r m e n i a

G e o r g i a

U z b

e k i s t a

n

A z e r b

a i j a n

T u r k m

e n i s t a

n T u

r k e y

M o l d o

v a S e

r b i a

M a c e d o n i a,

F Y R R u

s s i a

B u l g a

r i a

B o s n i a

K a z a k h s t a n

R o m a

n i a

B e l a r u s

U k r a i n e

C r o a t i a

P o l a n

d L a t v i a

L i t h u

a n i a

H u n g

a r y

S l o v a k i a

E s t o n

i a

C z e c h R e p u b l i c

S l o v e n i a

0

5

10

15

20

25 Vulnerability to

climate change

Source: Fay and Patel

(2008)

Taken from World

Bank, June 2009,

Adapting to Climate

Change in Europe and

Central Asia

10



Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

Agriculture is the major component o the

economy, representing some 24 percent o gross

domestic product (GDP), around 66 percent

o employment, 26 percent o exports and 39

percent o tax revenue. Agriculture is the main

livelihood o rural amilies (64 percent o the

population), who produce ood or their own

consumption and, to some extent, or sale on

urban markets.26 Since the times o the Soviet

Union, cotton has been the main cash crop

accounting or 75-90 percent o agricultural

exports depending on the year.27

Despite good rains and harvest in 2009, oodproduction in Tajikistan aces many serious challenges. Around 1.4 million people are ood insecure and thelevel o severe ood insecurity in the country is about 9percent o the rural population.28 “At the moment it is

not a critical situation but there is a high vulnerability.

I there’s a shock people will lose their protective

assets,” says Christophe Viltard, Oxam Livelihoodsand Food Security Programme Co-ordinator.

One o the ways in which climate shocks such asdroughts, fooding and extreme weather conditionscreate cycles o disadvantage is through their impacton agricultural production. During the drought in2008, grain harvest totals were down between 30

percent and 40 percent over the previous year29

and in September 2008, the UN had to launch aHumanitarian Food Security Appeal. Many armersreported losing their wheat crops and having tosell their livestock to buy ood. When a droughtdestroys a harvest, the resulting loss o income andassets can leave households unable to aord theseed, ertilizer and other inputs needed to restoreproduction the ollowing year. In Central and South Asia, crop yields are predicted to all by up to 30 percent by 2050 due to climate change, creating a veryhigh risk o hunger in several countries.30

“Last year it was a droughtbut this year is better.However there is still impactfrom last year’s drought.Most of the ‘dekhans’ orcollective farms are rainfedand still impacted from last year’s drought. If a dekhanfarmer is affected, hiscapacity to get seeds andfertilisers will be affected,”

Hminov Poteh, Deputy Mayor, Timurmalik District.

Shamsieva Anvaroi, a armer in Ganchi District, north Tajikistan,

says her pears are oten aected by pests and she has to use

garlic in soil to help ward o diseases. Photo: Anita Swarup

“I think the weather has become warmer

in the last 4 or 5 years and that is

aecting our crops. The sickness o our

crops is increasing but the pesticides are

expensive and we are losing almost 30

percent o our crops to diseases –

onion, tomato and cucumber.

And the drought was very hard on the

wheat crop last year.”

Turaqulov Saidmuzator, a armer in

Temumalik District. Photo: Anita Swarup

11



According to Ramazon Nematov, Head o Committeeo Emergencies, Kulyab Zone, “There was a lower

yield rom cotton and wheat in 2008 and people

could not get odder or animals. They could not

store enough odder, as 2006 and 2007 was dry aswell. Last year people lost their harvest, this year

(2009) people don’t have seeds and also some

rained lands have become dry.”

Many armers, community leaders and localgovernment have already observed more requentdroughts. Qodirov Hudoi-Berdi, Deputy o Chie,Committee o Emergency Situations, Sugd Region

believes that droughts are getting worse. “Two years ago there was a drought and the harvest was very bad.

Every two or three years there’s been a drought in the

last ten years. There are some droughts that destroy

100 percent o the crops and some droughts may be

50 percent. I things get worse, we will recommend that

people store ood now or the next year.”

Luckily or all the armers in Tajikistan, there weregood rains in 2009 that meant ood crops havefourished. Shamsiddinovir Chinigul is a armer inKatarkhona Village in Vose District. Last year wasdicult, she says (and she had received some oodvouchers rom Oxam) but this year she is happybecause there were good rains – and she managedto produce 5 sacks o potatoes.

Since soil degradation is a serious challengein Tajikistan, soil conservation using natural

techniques is one solution that helps preserve

moisture in the soil. Omina Askarova (photo)

is chie o the women’s ‘dekhan’ or collective

arm in Langor village, Spitamen district, north Tajikistan. This is a mountainous area with poor

soil quality. She is participating in a bio-arming

project with the NGO, Saodat. The project

involves training in making compost rom natural

sources such as animal manure and dry

leaves. She also took part in training in the useo drip irrigation and ecient use o water and

she believes this will be useul when the dryperiods come. During the drought o 2008, the

100 women armers lost about 40-60 tons o

barley. Since the training with Saodat and theuse o organic ertilisers, Omina Askarova says,

“My lie has really improved, i I need some

money I can sell some product rom the land

and I can x the price I sell it or.” This year she

can even aord to marry o her third daughter.

Yuldasheva Gulnora, Saodat Programme Co-ordinator comments, “Last year was a drought

so there was a problem with irrigation.

These issues are important as they are directly

related to livelihoods - and climate change

will infuence our projects. We are doing more

drip irrigation and we have plans to do more

terracing in mountain areas.”

Photo: Anita Swarup

Saodat, an Oxam partner Improving Rural Women’s livelihoods

Shamsiddinovir Chinigul, a armer rom the Vose District.

Photo: Anita Swarup

12



Cold winters or summer droughts jeopardiseagriculture. One solution is growing vegetables

in greenhouses, which use the abundance o

solar radiation and provide an environment that

can be more easily controlled.

Christophe Viltard, Oxam Livelihoods and

Food Security Programme Co-ordinator,

notes, “We concentrate on small plots that are

intensive arming – and where people can have

control over their land.” With greenhouses,

people are able to produce vegetables

o-season and generally produce more

vegetables over the year. They can also grow

seedlings in the spring, which can be sold at

the market or a decent price.

Oxam has a programme to help people

build passive solar greenhouses, based on a

design by the French NGO, Geres. ‘Passive’

means that there is no active heating – theirarchitecture makes them energy ecient

whereby they soak in solar radiation during the

day, store the heat in double walls and release

it during the cold nights. These have proven to

be successul with its owners having protable

harvests. It costs around 900 Euro or a 70

square metre greenhouse and some owners

have been able to pay back the money in as

little as 2 years. Almost 80 greenhouses have

now been completed in southern Tajikistan.

Geres rst started these greenhouses in Ladakh,

northern India, and recently won an Ashden

International Award or Sustainable Energy

(see www.ashdenawards.org/winners/GERES09)

Below: An Oxam built solar greenhouse,

Vose District, south Tajikistan.

Photo: Anita Swarup

Oxfam: Passive Solar Greenhouses

13



Climate Change and Water

The IPCC (2007) predicts that up to 1.2 billion

people across Asia will experience increased

water stress by the 2020s. Central Asia is a

region that is already water stressed and climate

change will exacerbate this in a number o ways

beyond reduced precipitation.

“When rain starts, its good,its like humanitarian aid”Qurbonov Sobir, a armer in

Hansanbek village in TemurmalikDistrict

Increased temperature increases evaporation, whileat the same time causing an increase in demand(or irrigation purposes). Warmer temperaturesmean that glaciers are receding and will continue torecede. Although, in the short term, basins that relyon glacial melt or summer water may see increasedwater fow rom melting glaciers, the long-termimplications or summer water availability are o

greater concern.

“Previously the drought wasfor one year and it was betterthe next but now the droughtgoes on for 4 or 5 years,”Khurshed Namozov, NGO andOxam partner, Kulyab

The melting o the glaciers o Tajikistan is alarming,particularly since its glaciers contribute 10 to 20percent o the runo o the major river systems o the

region (up to 70 percent during the dry season).31

Many armers rely on glacial melt water in rivers whenthere is little rain in summer.

The Amu Darya River also impacts water supplies toneighbouring countries. According to some modelpredictions, the availability o water may decrease in Amu Darya by up to 40 per cent.32 This may leave Tajikistan with enough water or its own needs but notenough or its downstream neighbors. Tajikistan has40 percent o total water resources or the countriesin Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgystan,

Kazakstan).33

Changes in the runo o river basins such

The Nurek Dam on Amu Darya River supplies most o the electricity or Tajikistan. Photo: Anita Swarup

14



as reductions in fows during the summer monthscould also have a signicant eect on hydropoweroutput, currently the source o around 95 per cento the country’s energy. Nearly 70 percent o totalcapacity comes rom the Nurek generating station onthe Amu Darya River, near the capital Dushanbe.34

Some local inhabitants have observed less snowin the winter – which means less water. Saidshoev Abdualim, a village elder in Vose District, notes, “Five

years ago there was much more snow, now we are

not having so much snow. This climate change is

aecting everyone badly. We think things will get

worse, not better.”

Less water availability in general implies less water orirrigation and more pressure on the irrigation system,which consumes 94% o the nation’s water. Almost

two-thirds o the crop production35 is under irrigationbut much o the irrigation system is in poor condition.

Out o 718,000 ha o irrigated land under cultivation,20% experiences water shortages right now.36 Droughtsand hotter temperatures also aect irrigation. AlimatovaZula, Chie o the Women’s Committee in Togoyakvillage, Spitamen, says drought, particularly in 2008,“ aected our irrigation in these dry periods and we didn’t

get good harvests as expected. There is a natural lake

nearby which had 50 percent less water than this year.”

Many armers are not lucky enough to have irrigatedwater and have to rely on rainall. These armers areon the rontline o climate change as during dry yearsor drought, it is extremely dicult to grow anythingand they have to buy their water. Communities inHansanbek village, Temurmalik district told Oxamresearchers how they have to buy their drinking waterat 1 somoni per 40 litres rom a truck that brings waterrom the river. Some springs in the area have also

dried up, or example in Davat village – partly due tolack o rainall over the years.

Contribution of glacier melt to water supply during severe drought

Water consumption and water use in Tajikistan

Severe drought in central Asia Glacier water in the riversduring the dry years

Contribution of water from glaciers

into river flow of Vaksh and Pyanj

during the dry years in June - Sept

areas significantly

affected by drought

Rainfall deficit in 1991-2001

-100 -250 -400 -550 -700Glacier melt contributuion

75-80%

Irrigation 72%

Drinking Water Supply 3%

Industry 4%

Agriculture 93%

Industry 4%

Residential sector 3%

Water losses 17%

Agricultural water supply 4%

Tables based on data 1991. During 1990s water consumption and water use were virtually thesame as in the year 1991. Source Ministry for nature protection RT

15



Extreme cold also impacts water systems. Duringthe winter o 2008, in particular, water pipes rozeand access to drinking water worsened. KhurshedNamozov, Director o the NGO and Oxam partner

Hamkori Bahri Taraqqiyot, notes, “the winter o 2008was very cold at minus 20 and many people got sick

and went to hospital. People were saying we hope that

the spring and summer would be better – but it was

dry. And it didn’t snow in the mountains so there was

less water in the rivers or irrigation.”

Strategies or ecient water management are nowcrucial in light o climate change. According to the Tajikistan National Action Plan or Climate ChangeMitigation (2003), the outlook is that the country “will

need more water, especially or irrigation, in view o

climate warming and increased evaporation. Water

needs or irrigation o basic agricultural crops will rise by

20-30 percent compared to present climate conditions.”

There is no longer any water running rom this spring in Davatvillage, Temurmalik District, partly due to lack o rainall over the

last ew years. Photo: Anita Swarup

Oxam has built 10 concrete water tanks

in two villages in Temurmalik District and is

building another 10 in Qumsangir, urther

south. Several amilies club together and buy

water and store it in a tank. The tanks also

catch rainwater rom rainall harvesting devices

in the spring and autumn.

In winter people rely on snow or their water

needs. Each tanks costs around 2334 Somoni

(about US $ 667) to build and Abdulloev

Kamoliddin, Oxam Community Mobiliser, says

that, such is the demand that the people are

ready to contribute nancially to building more.

Photo: Anita Swarup

Oxam-built concrete water storage tank

16



Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction

Droughts and other climatic hazards have the

potential to disrupt people’s lives, leading to

losses o income, assets and opportunities.

Events o hydro-meteorological origin are

implicated in the large majority o disasters.37

But natural hazards are not by denition

disasters. A disaster is created when natural

phenomenon have serious adverse impacts

on people’s lives and assets, because o their

vulnerability to the hazard and their inability

to cope. Disasters in turn oten increase

vulnerability, putting people in a downwardspiral o deepening poverty and increasing risk.

Poverty increases vulnerability.

Supporting community resilience to hazards andawareness o threats such as extreme weatherevents is key to reducing the impact o disasters in Tajikistan. Disaster preparedness and risk reductionis a crucial part o Oxam’s work, and the eect thatclimate change can have on vulnerable communitiesis one o the risk actors that has to be preparedor in the uture. Oxam’s objectives in disaster risk

management are:• To accompany at-risk communities to plan, get support

or and implement long-term risk reduction initiatives.• To enable at risk-communities to respond rapidly and

eciently to a disaster situation.

Oxam’s programme in the district o Farkhor is anexample o the eectiveness o this approach in theace o foods and mudfows. Heavy rain, a largerise in temperature and sudden snowmelt werebehind a catastrophic food on the Pyanj River in2005. Ramazon Nematov, Head o Committee o theEmergency Situations, Kulyab Zone, says “the warm

weather started in 2005 and the level o water in the

Pyanj River increased because o melted glaciers

and there was a food in the Hamadoni district.” Asa result, thousands o people were displaced andcrops destroyed. In the nearby district o Farkhor,where a tributary rom the Pyanj River fows into theSukhob River, there there were no serious casualtiesbecause the riverbank had been repaired andreinorced the previous year, ater the river had burstits banks in 1998 and 2004. One villager, AzizovaGulsara, said “We remember the food in 2005

when the Pyanj River again overfowed and fooded

but the damage was limited here because we had rehabilitated the riverbank.”

Tajikistan aces the possibility o more glacial lakeoutburst fows (GLOFS) that occur when glacial meltwater overfows or bursts through natural damsmade o mixed ice and moraine material. These canbe sudden and catastrophic events. Malik Ajani,Senior Programme Ocer with the NGO, FOCUSHumanitarian Assistance (FOCUS), which workswith communities in the Pamir mountain region, saysthere needs to be more research on where theseglacial lakes are orming - there could be hundreds,and most are not known to village communities or tolocal authorities as they may orm several kilometresup mountain valleys. In 2002, a whole village, Dasht,was completely destroyed by a glacial lake outburstthat killed 25 people and displaced around 450

more Climate change is causing glaciers to meltaster thus increasing the risk o GLOFS. Focus is

In Farkhor Oxam has also been training

the community in evacuation procedures,

in monitoring water levels and in other

aspects o disaster preparedness. In

1998, when there was a mudfow due

to heavy rain, many o the inhabitants

managed to escape but without taking

any belongings or important documents.

“I wanted to take one chicken,” said Azizova Gulsara “but I was in the mudfow

up to my neck and the chicken was on

a tree – but I managed to save it!” Now,

with Oxam’s assistance, they are trained

in disaster preparedness.

Azizova Gulsara. Photo: Anita Swarup

17



now undertaking a project as a response to climatechange to identiy risks rom GLOFS in mountaincommunities. Once these risks have been identied,Focus will stimulate mitigation activities such as

awareness raising, monitoring, early warning,community and government capacity building,structural works such as mudfow channels andnon-structural strategies such as tree planting.

Climate change and the issue o melting glaciersin particular – and how to include it in planning – isnow important or the Committee or EmergencySituations which is responsible or disaster risk

management in Tajikistan. But the Committeelacks the resources and unding to deal with allthe natural disasters that have happened or thatmay happen in the uture. For example, according

to Alisho Mardonovich Shomamadov, Committeeo Emergency Situations, the waters o Lake Sarezare very high and i the natural dam bursts, thewater could cause devastating fooding along thePyanj River and the Amu Darya. He notes, “we

need monitoring o these issues and the hydromet

network needs capacity building and we need

awareness raising with people living in the worst

aected areas.”

Young boy herding cattle to the elds walking along the road at the side o the surging Surhob river in Khatlon Region ater 24 hours

o rain in 2004. Oxam rehabilitated the nearby pump station and also strengthened the river bank to prevent potential damage to the station caused by fooding rom the river. Photo: Karen Robinson

18



Challenges o adapting to climate change

Tajikistan has ratied the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. It has also

developed a First National Communication

(2003), a Second National Communication to

the UNFCCC (2008), and a National Plan o

Action or Climate Change Mitigation (2003) that

provides a way or the country to identiy key

aspects o climate change and priority activities

that respond to urgent needs to adapt.

Even i global emissions o greenhouse gases

are drastically reduced in the coming years,the global annual average temperature is

expected to be 2 degree C above pre-industrial

levels by 2050. It could be double that by the

end o the century. A 2 degree C warmer world

will experience more requent and intense

droughts, foods, heat waves and other extreme

weather events. What is needed is ‘no regrets’

adaptation – policies and actions that will

generate net social benets that will help

people withstand today’s climate shocks and

prepare them better or uture climate changes.

The National Plan o Action or Climate Change

Mitigation strategies include:

• Scientic research programs on climate change,its impacts on natural resources, the economy andpublic health, and development o specic adaptationmeasures.

• Improvement o the data collection system andanalysis, interpretation and dissemination o theresults among end users.

• Enhancing o the system o orecasting, modelingand early warning on natural disasters, especiallycatastrophic foods and mudfows.

• Building institutional and technical capacity onadaptation issues.

• Training o personnel in adaptation-related elds suchas climate and hydrological research, geographicalinormation systems, environmental impactassessment, protection and re-habilitation o lands,rational water use, conservation o ecosystems,agricultural and inrastructure development andhealth protection.

The Second National Communication under

UNFCCC includes:

• Breeding o agricultural crops resistant to drought andsalinity

• Sprinkling and drip irrigation.• Planning and introducing water saving activities

The government o Tajikistan recognises the actand importance o climate change and its impacts,but it aces serious challenges in terms o undingand lack o capacity to cope with such a potentially

overwhelming phenomenon. Lack o researchand data also present problems in tackling theimpacts. Planning in high-risk environments requiresinvestments that are beyond the nancing capacitieso most governments acting alone.

“I think the climatesituation is now the mostimportant problem forTajikistan. The bottom linemust be the real needs of

people and people mustcome up with adaptationmeasures by themselvesi.e. village developmentplans. National documentsdo not think about the realneeds of people and theiradaptation.” Yuri Skochilov, Youth Ecological Centres

Adaptation projects and activities take a number o orms. Building or reinorcing inrastructure projectssuch as water pipes and bridges are only part o the solution. Activities like community resilience andimproving capacity in all relevant ministries at nationaland provincial levels will have to be part o thenational plan and international unding priorities.

The people o Tajikistan are hardworking, resilient andstoic in the ace o harsh weather conditions – andwhen conditions are good, as in 2009, they haveshown how adept they are to take advantage andincrease production. People are already adapting to

climate risks – but the uture is worrying.

19



When small-scale armers were asked what theywould see as ‘adaptation’, they identied severalmeasures, notably:

• More water through storage o water in concrete

tanks and/or drilling more boreholes.

• Ability to store ood or dicult times ahead

• Assistance with buying seeds and developingdrought resistant varieties

Communities must be at the heart o eorts to buildresilience through strengthening ood and watersecurity. Scaling up community-owned approacheswhere people come together or training andawareness raising will be central to successulnational strategies.

Women must also be at the core o adaptationstrategies and or this, gender-disaggregated dataand research is necessary. In Tajikistan, manyhouseholds are emale-headed as males migrateto Russia. Women in Tajikistan have to work on thearms as well as having the responsibility o managingthe household, etching water or rewood andgrowing much o the ood. Thereore, women andmen will experience climate change dierently.

Climate-change impacts and policies are not genderneutral because o dierences in responsibility,

vulnerability and capacity or adaptation. The valueo and entitlement to assets, access to educationand participation in local organizations shapegender-based patterns o vulnerability. In somecircumstances, women are more vulnerable toclimate shocks. Empowerment and participation o women in decision-making can lead to improvedoutcomes or all.

It is important to strengthen local institutions, whichare short o sta, resources and capacity. Localocials will have to anticipate more erratic growing

conditions in agriculture and more challenges towater management. Disaster Management ocialswill have to prepare or more emergencies.

Climate change also needs to be actored intonational planning and budgeting, and adaptationmust be integrated into development-planningprocesses, or example strengthening institutions,and providing early-warning systems, analysing andmapping risks as well as establishing emergencycontingency plans or communities at risk. Climaterisks should be integrated into national and localdisaster-risk reduction plans. The aim is to tackle

the underlying vulnerabilities that put communities at

risk in the ace o the increasing number o climate-related disasters.38

Planning or climate change must consider both

types o climate related risks - those have a slowonset, such as changes in temperature andprecipitation leading to agricultural losses anddrought, and those that happen more quickly andunexpectedly such as foods.

In the ace o environmental and climatic challenges, Tajikistan government resources and capacity arelimited. The government has developed a structureor disaster response that can be built upon andreinorced. The Committee or Emergency Situationsis responsible or ensuring good coordination indisaster risk management. In collaboration withinternational NGOs working in the eld o disasterpreparedness, it currently supports initiatives toprepare communities or imminent disasters andprovide or their immediate needs during times o disaster.

It will be important to see the good rains o 2009 asa window o opportunity and utilise the extra incomegenerated by the record harvest to strengtheninvestments in agriculture, ood security and climatechange adaptation, especially as prices or wheatand other ood items remain above pre-ood crisis

levels and this, coupled with the drop in remittancesrom migrant labor, continues to hamper the ability o vulnerable populations to buy ood.39

As well as adaptation, Tajikistan is makingcontributory eorts to mitigate climate changeand reduce global warming. Tajikistan ranks 129thout o 211 in the list o nations when it comes togreenhouse gas emissions per capita. More than98% o its electricity comes rom hydro. Agricultureis currently responsible or the largest proportion o the country’s greenhouse gas emissions (notably

methane), with energy close behind. Despite its tinycontribution to global emissions, Tajikistan believesin the importance o trying to minimise emissionsas it develops, to ull its international obligationsunder the UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange, to demonstrate international leadership andsolidarity with other nations and also in the interestso eciency. Local NGOs in Tajikistan have calledor a rat o measures, including energy eciency inhousing (heating and insulation) and industry and theurther development o renewable energy, includingsmall (micro and pico) hydro and biogas and energyecient stoves.40 Much better waste processing andrecycling is also crucial to reduce methane emissions.41

20



Conclusions

Climate change is an international injustice.

Poor countries such as Tajikistan that have

done the least to cause current global warming

and consequent climate change are the rst to

begin to suer the impacts.

Oxam International believes that deliveringclimate justice must be at the heart o a post2012 agreement on climate change, in particularthrough rich countries committing to deep and rapidemissions cuts and ensuring a massive transer o

resources and technology to vulnerable countries.

Annual public nancing rom developed to developingcountries should be at least US$200 billion oradaptation and low carbon development. Asclimate change constitutes an extra burden on thedevelopment paths o poor countries, unds shouldbe additional to ocial development aid. OxamInternational is calling or a air and sae deal in which:

• Global emissions are cut by 80 per cent rom 1990levels by 2050.

• Rich countries cut emissions by 40 per cent below

1990 levels by 2020.• Rich countries provide at least US$200 billion per

year to help developing countries adapt to climateimpacts and develop in a low-carbon way. Thisincludes the immediate provision o at least $50billion per year or adaptation, with rich countries´ contributions increasing in line with the latesteconomic and scientic estimates to at least $100billion per year or adaptation by 2020.

• An adaptation nancing mechanism is established,which generates a predictable fow o new unds,additional to existing aid targets o 0.7% o GrossNational Income (GNI).

The United Nations conerence on climate changein Copenhagen in December 2009 was a hugedisappointment. The talks were characterized by chaos,near-collapse and the pursuit o a narrow sel-interestby the major powers that has let the world headingtowards 40C global warming – a catastrophic prospect.Negotiations must get straight back on track to keepglobal warming ar below 20C. The Copenhagen Accord has committed developed countries to providenew and additional “ast-start” nance or adaptationand mitigation approaching $30 billion or the period

2010-2012 but this needs to be additional to currentaid pledges and commitments will be required to meet

an estimated shortall o $2billion per year with clearcommitments to deliver on unds needed rom 2014to 2019. The Accord also calls or $100 billion to bemobilized or adaptation and mitigation by 2020, butthis is only hal the estimated minimum sum needed andthere is no indication on how this money will be raised.

Until such a und exists, ongoing adaptation andmitigation projects being carried out by countries like Tajikistan should be recognized and supported by thedonor community.

Developing country governments including Tajikistanshould urther develop and implement a nationaladaptation strategy, which is properly mainstreamedacross the government’s programmes or eradicatingpoverty, and adopted by and co-ordinated across all thekey ministries. Such plans should also identiy the mosturgent adaptation activities and the cost o these, andsecure international nancing or their implementation

Disaster Risk Reduction needs to be part o long-term planning at all levels o government, across allministries, and particularly at the departmental and

municipal level. Disaster preparedness has to bestepped up. Water storage and management shouldbe a major priority. In Central Asia, regional institutionsmust be strengthened to improve monitoring andcross-border co-operation on water in the light o climate change threats and growing demand.

Poor women are particularly vulnerable to climateshocks, and – through their central role in the householdeconomy - play a critical role in protecting amiliesand communities rom climate risks. They must beat the center o national and international policies

or adaptation and the reduction o poor amilies’vulnerabilities to disasters.

It is Oxam International’s experience in more than 100countries around the world that a combination o activecitizens and eective state action is the best way o securing development and poverty reduction. It is alsobest way o preparing or climate change. Tajikistan’scivil society organizations need to be involved in thedevelopment o concrete proposals on the content anddirection o national adaptation and mitigation policy. There needs to be a concerted campaign, supportedby both government and civil society organisations, to

broaden awareness o the challenges o climate changeand the need or action to the public at large.

21



Bibliography

Asian Development Bank, 2005, Climate Proong: A Risk Based Approach to Adaptation

CARE, Adaptation in Mountain Communities

DFID, 2004, Taking initial steps towards adaptation

Eurasia Insight, July 08, Tajikistan: Almost one-third o the population is in danger o going hungry thiswinter http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav100708.shtml

Falkingham, Jane, 2000, Women and Gender relations in Tajikistan, or the Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Feinstein International Centre, 2008, The Humanitarian Cost o Climate Change

Food and Agriculture Organization o the United Nations (FAO), FAO’s role in the 2008/2009Humanitarian Food Security Appeal or Tajikistan, September 2008

Food and Agriculture Organization o the United Nations (FAO), Oct 2009, Special Report, FAO Cropand Food Security Assessment Mission to Tajikistan

Global Environment Facility (GEF), 2007, Financing Adaptation Action

GTZ, 2009, Down to Earth: Desertication challenges in the Pamir, TajikistanIWMI (International Water Management Institute and FAO, 2009, Revitalising Asia’s Irrigation: Tosustain tomorrow’s ood needs

Institute or Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), (date?), Mainstreaming Adaptation Concerns inManagement o in Management o Water Resources Water Resources in Asia in Asia: Progress andChallenges

ID21, 2008, Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation, Closing the Gap

International Crisis Group, 2009, Tajikistan: On the Road to Failure

International Federation o the Red Cross (IFRC), Climate Guide, 2007

International Federation o the Red Cross (IFRC) World Disasters Report, 2008

Insurance Instruments or Adapting to Climate Risks: Moving towards Copenhagen, presented byKoko Warner on behal o MCII1 at the 4th AWG-LCA workshop in Poznan 4 December 2008

Institute o Environment and Development (IIED) Brieng, Nov 2008, Taking Steps: Mainstreamingnational Adaptation

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, Fourth Assessment, Working Group 11,Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2008, Technical Paper V1 on Climate Changeand Water

Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Brieng note, 2009, Adapting to climate change in the water sector

Oxam and WWF, 2008, Russia and Neighbouring Countries, Environmental, Economic and SocialImpacts o Climate Change http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/russia_climate_change.html

Oxam, 2007, Country Analysis/National Change Strategies

Oxam Community Situation Indicators, Khatlon Oblast (Hamodani foods), 2005

Oxam Brieng Paper, 2007, Climate Alarm http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/bp108_weather_alert.html

Oxam Brieng Paper, 2008, Climate Wrongs and Human Rights http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/ policy/climate_change/bp117_climatewrongs.html

Oxam International, 2007, Oxam brieng Note: Financing adpatation: Why the UN’s Bali ClimateConerence must mandate the search or new unds http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/ climate_change/bn_bali_adaptation.html

Oxam, A Just and Global Green New Deal, March 2009 http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/ climate_change/global_green_new_deal.html

Oxam, 2008, Climate Wrongs and Human rights http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/bp117_climatewrongs.html

Reuters and Alert Net – various articles

Statement o NGOs in Tajikistan on climate change, Feb 27, 2009, Dushanbe

Stern Review, 2006, The Economics o Climate Change

SDC (Swiss Development and Cooperation) and UNDP, 2009, Report - Issues and recommendationsor community level rural water supply in Tajikistan

Tajikistan, State Organisation or Hydrometereology, Ministry or Nature Protection, First NationalCommunication under UNFCCC, 2003

Tajikistan, State Organisation or Hydrometereology, Ministry or Nature Protection, Second NationalCommunication under UNFCCC, 2008

Tajikistan, Main Administration on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Pollution Monitoring, Ministryor Nature Protection o the Republic Tajikistan, 2003, National Action or Climate Change MitigationUNFCCC Phase I, 2003

Tajikistan Agency on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring o Tajikistan, Impacts o climatewarming on glaciers and water resources on glaciers and water resources in Tajikistan and Central

Asia in Tajikistan, presentation by Nailya Mustaeva

Republic o Tajikistan, National Development Strategy or the Republic o Tajikistan or the period to2015, Regional Conerence on MDG based NDS and PRSP, 15-17 March 2007, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Poverty Reduction Strategy 2007-2009, Republic o Tajikistan

REACT (Rapid Emergency Assessment and Coordination Team, August 2009, Early Recovery Appeal,Floods and Mudfows

NEF and IIED, The th report rom the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, 2007,Up in Smoke? Asia and the Pacic, The threat rom climate change to human development and theenvironment http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/asia_up_in_smoke.html

University o Guelph, 2008, or World Food Programme, Climate Change and Food Security in

Tajikistan: A backgrounderUNDP, GEF (check date?) Sustaining agricultural biodiversity in the ace o climate change in Tajikistan

UNDP and LSE, July 2008, Development and Transition, Climate Change (Central Asia)

UNDP, Human Development Report, 2007/8, Fighting Climate Change

UNDP, 2007, Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change

UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2007, Climate Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries

UN, Tajikistan Humanitarian Food Security Appeal, 2008-2009

WFP workshop on climate change and ood security, Cairo, Egypt, 3 Nov, 2008, Climate changeimpacts on ood security and adaptation measures (powerpoint Hideki Kanamaru FAO)

WFP workshop on climate change and ood security, Cairo, Egypt, 3 Nov, 2008, Climate change andFood Security: Tajikistan

World Bank, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia

World Bank, World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate Change

World Bank, 2009, The Cost to Developing Countries o Adapting to Climate Change, The GlobalReport o the Economics o Adaptation to Climate Change Study (Executive Summary)

World Bank, 2008, Implications o Higher Global Food Prices or Poverty in Low-Income Countries

World Conerence on Disaster Reduction, January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. Hyogo Framework or Action 2005-2015: International Strategy or Disaster Reduction. Extract rom the nal report o the

World Conerence on Disaster Reduction www.unisdr.org/wcdr Youth Ecological Centre Tajkistan, Dushanbe, 2007, Public Perceptions o climate change in Tajikistanand Kyrgystan

Reerences

1 Data or 2005 rom Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, version 6, 2009, World Resources Institute

2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

3 World Bank, World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change

4 Second National Communication under UNFCCC, 2008, State Agency or Hydrometeorology

5 Second National Communication

6 World Bank, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia

7 IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation

8 Youth Ecological Centre Tajkistan, Dushanbe, 2007, Public Perceptions o climate change in Tajikistan and Kyrgystan

9 UN, Tajikistan Humanitarian Food Security Appeal, 2008-2009

10 World bank, 2009, Adpating to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia

11 UNDP, 2007, Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change12 World Bank, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia.

13 Interview with the principal author

14 Food and Agriculture Organization o the United Nations (FAO), Sept 2008, FAO’S Role In the2008/2009 Humanitarian Food Security Appeal or Tajikistan

15 World Bank, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia.

16 IPCC

17 FAO, Oct 2009, Special Report, FAO Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to Tajikistan


19 Eurasia Insight, July 08, Tajikistan: Almost one-third o the population is in danger o going hungrythis winterhttp://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav100708.shtml

20 WFP workshop on climate change and ood security, Cairo, Nov, 2008, Climate change and FoodSecurity: Tajikistan

21 UNDP, 2008/9, Sustaining agricultural biodiversity in the ace o climate change in Tajikistan

22 IMF 2006 in Oxam, 2007, Country Analysis/National Change Strategies

23 Oxam, 2007, Country Analysis/National Change Strategies

24 Falkingham, Jane, 2000, Women and Gender relations in Tajikistan, or Asian Development Bank

25 Second National Communication under UNFCCC, 2008, State Organisation or Hydrometeorology.

26 UN, Tajikistan Humanitarian Food Security Appeal, 2008-200927 FAO, Oct 2009, Special Report, FAO Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to Tajikistan

28 WFP, WHO, DFID, Sept 2009, Food Security Bulletin.

29 Eurasia Insight, July 08, Tajikistan: Almost one-third o the population is in danger o going hungrythis winterhttp://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav100708.shtml

30 UNFCC, 2007, Background paper on climate change in Asia


32 UNDP, 2007, Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change


34 University o Guelph, 2008, For WFP, A Backgrounder: Climate Change and Food Security in Tajikistan

35 FAO, Oct 2009, Special Report, FAO Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to Tajikistan

36 Second National Communication

37 World Conerence on Disaster Reduction, January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. Hyogo Frameworkor Action 2005-2015: International Strategy or Disaster Reduction. Extract rom the nal report o the World Conerence on Disaster Reduction www.unisdr.org/wcdr

38 Oxam International, 2007, Oxam brieng Note: Financing adapatation: Why the UN’s Bali Climateconerence must mandate the search or new unds

39 FAO ibid.

40 Statement o NGOs in Tajikistan on climate change, Feb 27, 2009, Dushanbe

41 Youth Ecological Centre report on public perceptions

22

Young girl working in the cotton elds in Khatlon Region. Women workers wear their headscarves across their aces to protect them rom the heat and the dry,

dusty earth. Photo: Karen Robinson



Acknowledgements

Oxam International take all responsibility or the content

o the report.

© Oxam International, December 2009.

This report was written or Oxam International in Tajikistan 53 Ibn Sino Street, P.O.Box 183

Dushanbe, Tajikistan

The principal researcher and author was Anita Swarup.

The report was edited by John Magrath and Richard

English and designed by Nigel Wilmott.

It is part o a series o papers written to inorm public

debate on development and humanitarian policy issues.

For urther inormation or to give eedback on the issues

raised in this paper please e-mail [email protected]

The text may be used ree o charge or the purposes

o advocacy, campaigning, education, and research,

provided that the source is acknowledged in ull. The

copyright holder requests that all such use be registered

with them or impact assessment purposes. For copying

in any other circumstances, or or re-use in other

publications, or or translation or adaptation, permission

must be secured and a ee may be charged. E-mail

[email protected] The inormation in this publication

is correct at the time o going to press. For urther

inormation or to give eedback on the issues raised inthis paper please e-mail [email protected]

Oxam International is a conederation o ourteen

organizations working together in more than 100

countries to nd lasting solutions to poverty and

injustice: Oxam America (www.oxamamerica.org),

Oxam Australia (www.oxam.org.au), Oxam-in-Belgium

(www.oxamsol.be), Oxam Canada (www. oxam.ca),

Oxam France - Agir ici (www.oxamrance.org),

Oxam Germany (www.oxam.de), Oxam GB

(www.oxam.org.uk), Oxam Hong Kong

(www.oxam.org.hk), Intermon Oxam (www.intermonoxam.org), Oxam Ireland (www.oxamireland.

org), Oxam Mexico (www.oxammexico.org),

Oxam New Zealand (www.oxam.org.nz)

Oxam Novib (www.oxamnovib.nl), Oxam Quebec

(www.oxam.qc.ca)

reaching tipping point?: climate change and poverty in tajikstan

Documents