re-engineering the production process
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Re-engineering the Production Process. EGOWS 15 th June 2004 Peter Trevelyan & Graham Mallin. Why Re-engineer?. Greater flexibility & scalability in meeting new and changing customer requirements. Provide the platform for new products & services for the future. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Re-engineering the Production Process
EGOWS
15th June 2004
Peter Trevelyan & Graham Mallin
© Crown copyright
Why Re-engineer?
Greater flexibility & scalability in meeting new and changing customer requirements.
Provide the platform for new products & services for the future.
Reduce the costs involved in the supply of products and services to customers.
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Benefits being deliveredFlexibility
• Responsive to data requirements
• IT more responsive to demand
• Developments quicker to market
• New services quicker to market
Cost savings
• Reduced costs of obs supply
• More cost efficient development
• Reduced costs of IT infrastructure
• Reduced costs of telecomms
• Reduced costs of Forecast Production
• Reduced cost of service creation
Maintaining Improvements
• Maintain capability and reduced cost base
• Metrics to allow better business decisions
• Service delivery management
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Six main work streams
IT Infrastructure – Delivering a scalable, flexible IT infrastructure which meets the needs of the future Met Office.
Adding Knowledge and Value – To take data and information and add knowledge and value to it to allow service creation and delivery.
Obtaining data & Information – A scalable and cost effective observing network that supports more than just ‘meteorological’ observations.
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Six main work streams
Service Creation & Delivery – Ensuring that our Re-engineering project delivers what the Met Office needs …… and is ready for what Re-engineering will deliver.
People – To effectively manage the people transition
Process - To enable and facilitate Re-engineering to deliver an updated set of business processes.
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Re-engineering Operating Principles
The Core Re-engineering team will act as ‘Design Authority’
– Determining new environment and processes
– Co-ordinate & provide guidance to projects / programmes
– Each Development project will have a ‘Re-engineering review’ milestone before commencing.
– Managing the overall Re-engineering Programme
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Re-engineering Operating Principles
Programme Priority – V High. Programme starts in earnest April 04. 2 year implementation.
– Sets the foundation for ongoing improvement. Regular deliverables. Stick to the target architecture - challenge all
exceptions. External expertise where it can add value will be
used.
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Some of the challenges
Implementing lasting change. Priority of Re-engineering v other key
objectives. Learning curve for the organisation. Involving customers. Managing the programme and not the
detail. It’s not a panacea!
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Adding Knowledge and Value
A consistent set of high quality products efficiently produced to enable the cost effective creation of services for customers.
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Adding Knowledge and ValueDeliverables
Centralisation of product creation Increased automation of product creation Meteorologically consistent products Increased flexibility in the creation of
services from products. Changed forecaster roles to include
consultant meteorologist
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Obtaining Data and Information
A scalable and cost effective observing network that supports more that just ‘meteorological’ observations
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Obtaining Data and Information Deliverables
More scalable and flexible observing systems Standard data processing methodologies Targeted Observing and Virtual Observations
introduced Reduced manual involvement in observation
creation, collection and processing Centralised observing network support function
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Service Creation & Delivery
Ensuring that our Re-engineering project delivers what the Met Office needs …
and is ready for what Re-engineering will deliver.
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Service Creation & Delivery Deliverables
Detailed business requirements in order to guide Re-engineering Roadmap
Ensuring that we deliver what the business needs
Migration of customers to new architecture.
Introduction of Service Delivery management
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IT Infrastructure
Delivering a scalable, flexible IT infrastructure which meets the needs of the future Met Office
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IT Infrastructure Deliverables
More Distributed and scaleable IT Architecture with common standards and support tools – leading to systems and support that are more responsive to changes in demand
Unified Development Process – using up to date efficient tools with highly skilled development staff – quicker and cheaper to deliver software.
Clearer “cost of development” model, with Unified Development model.
Removal of redundant architecture and legacy systems – reduce IT costs
Improved IT Governance Ability to collect metrics
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IT Infrastructure Benefits
IT systems and support more responsive to changes in demand
Developments quicker to market More cost efficient development Reduced running cost of IT infrastructure Reduced running cost of telecoms Improved IT Infrastructure governance Improved production process metrics
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IT Infrastructure – Issues
New technologies Development Process Demonstrate capability early MoD, security etc Some customers have long timescales Logical Data Store (LDS) will take time! E-commerce strategy
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IT Infrastructure Timeline
Enterprise architectur
e
Apr04 Apr05 Apr06 Dec06
Governance adopted
Web portal established
LDS design
Complete development process roll-
out
LDS fully operational
Telecoms infrastructure
GPCS migration complete
Applications migrated
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IT Architecture
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Strategic IT themes
Flexible, resilient, highly available, secure Distributed, component-based framework
– Java J2EE (where fit for purpose)
– Service Oriented Architecture
– Middleware … the “glue”
Exploit existing “legacy” systems– We’re not starting from scratch!
Consolidation of the “multitude” of platforms Linux
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Architecture Roadmap
Component ModelComponent Model
DataModelData
ModelOperational ModelOperational Model
OverviewOverview
Specification LevelSpecification Level
Physical LevelPhysical Level
Conceptual LevelConceptual Level
PrinciplesPrinciples
ContextContext
Management
Process
Management
Process
IT StrategyIT Strategy
RequirementsRequirements
Business Requireme
nts
Business Requireme
nts
IT Requireme
nts
IT Requireme
nts
Implementation PlanImplementation Plan
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Architecture Context
ResearchSystems andResources
External WebServices
Directories
DeliveryBureaux
ExternalSystems
External DataSources
ExternalSystems
WirelessDevices
Browser-based Internet
Clients
MeasurementInstrumentation
Existing(Legacy) IT
Systems andPackagedSolutions
VoiceTelephonyNetworks
DesktopHardware
DesktopApplications
Browser-based Intranet
Clients
DesktopServices
SupportingInfrastructure
Met OfficeIT Architecture
Met Office Users,Systems andResources
Customersand
Partners
Third PartyService
Providers
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Architecture Overview
PresentationServices
(Web)
ApplicationServices(J2EE)
System, Network and Security Management Services
IntranetClients
PresentationServices
(Web)
ApplicationServices(J2EE)
SupportingServices
(i.e. CRM, HR,Finanace)
IntegrationServices(Process,
Application andData Integration)
Logical DataStore
(Oracle)
Core ProductionSystems
(Non J2EE)GatewayServices
VPNs /PrivateLinks
ExternalServices
SensorNetwork
ProductCreation and
AnalysisServices(J2EE*)
AuthenticationServices
* Native J2EE orJ2EE Integrated
Logical DataStore -
ReplicatedSubset(Oracle)
ProductCreation and
AnalysisServices(J2EE*)
Web ServicesGateway
Internet
InternetClients
ExternalServices
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Revised Business Processes
To enable and facilitate Re-engineering to deliver an updated set of business processes which:
– reflect the changes resulting from the Programme and
– meet the evolving future needs of the Met Office.
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Revised Business Processes Deliverables
To enable and facilitate Re-engineering to deliver new production process map new overall Met Office process map new organisational structure continued ISO9001 certification demonstrated process improvements using
new performance measures.
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Creating the 4D Data Cube
The source of “Environmental Intelligence”
Need to transform the output from the forecaster into a form that can be used by cooperating processes.
The majority of the content needs to be digital as it is not easy to make quantitative use of a picture.
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Creating the 4D Data Cube
The forecaster needs tools that enable them to “digitally” edit the atmosphere and in particular gridded data (“On Screen Field Modification”).
»The edit needs to be in time and space.»The process must be intuitive to the
forecaster.»The edit process needs to be scientifically
sound i.e. the “balance of the atmosphere needs to be maintained.
»The forecaster need only edit one field and all others be changed.
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Forecasting Process
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The transform of the Meteorologist’s View of the world into one that forms a
key component required by the “Product Tailoring Process” and also a key
element of the “Common Operating Picture” required by all Key Decision
makers.
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Adding value to model data Field modification
Griddeddata set
from NWP
Gridmodification
Modified griddeddata set
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OSFM A tool that allows the forecaster to edit, in four dimensions
NWP data. The resultant amended data is saved in the database and
therefore available to all other “down stream” process. The forecaster edits fields on the basis of supporting data. The resulting digital database will form the basis of most down
stream product creation. The scales can vary from Global to high resolution Meso-Scale
models. The OSFM process can be proved to add value through
objective verification.
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The OSFM User Interface and Display
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The change in Equivalent Potential Temperature as
a result of editing the surface pressure.
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The change in Equivalent Potential Temperature as
a result of editing the surface pressure.
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Mesoscale OSFM
Developed in 2002 to augment OSFM Expanded parameter list includes fog
probability and cloud prediction Model merge facility from successive runs
or different models Ability to apply operators (multiply, add
etc) to selected cloud and precipitation fields
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Need to evaluate the OSFM process to ensure it delivers value.
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Proving the value of FITL
Met Office routinely proving the value of human forecaster with verification stats
Quantifying the value of modifying certain model fields (cloud, precip, fog etc)
Recognize models are increasingly reliable In JET need methodology for how forecaster
will operate in future
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OSFM Benefits
Enables forecasters to provide best guidance More emphasis on understanding models Generates graphical guidance information Excellent “what if” analysis tool Allows the forecaster more time for
‘meteorology’ Modified gridded data for use in automated
product generation
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Adding value to model data Derived Data
Calculate derived data for special applications
CAT, Icing, Thunderstorm Indices etc Either as “one-off” or routinely Only need to send model data to user
– Reduce transmissions
– User creates data required
– Flexibility to use different model data
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Medium-Range Forecasting - The Effect of Chaos
The atmosphere is a chaotic system: “… one flap of
a seagull’s wing may forever change the future course of the weather”, (Lorenz, 1963)
Up to about 3 days ahead we can usually forecast the general pattern of the weather quite accurately
Beyond 3 days Chaos becomes a major factorTiny errors in how we analyse the current state of the atmosphere lead to large errors in the forecast – these are both equally valid 4-day forecasts!
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Ensembles...
time
Forecast uncertainty
Climatology
Initial Condition Uncertainty
X
Deterministic Forecast
Analysis
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Ensembles
In an ensemble forecast we run the model many times from slightly different initial conditions
These provide a range of ‘equally probable’ forecast solutions
Allow forecasters to:
– Assess possible outcomes
– Estimate risks and probabilities
– Gauge confidence
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ECMWF Ensemble prediction System (EPS)
51 members:– Control run from
unperturbed ECMWF analysis
– 25 perturbations, each added to and subtracted from the control analysis to create a pair of runs
ECMWF model at 80km resolution
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Summarising information
The Ensemble contains a huge amount of information – need to summarise
Tubing (left) identifies most probable (top) and most extreme (below) forecasts
Clustering groups together similar forecasts
Cyclone Tracking (right) shows low centres
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EPS Meteogram
Plot of ensemble spread
– Box shows 25-75% range
– Whiskers show 95% confidence range
– Central bar shows median – can indicate most probable
Summarises forecast at one location for 10 days ahead
Met Office calibrates ensemble forecasts to improve quality
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Stacked Probability ChartsIdeal for identifying “Weather Windows”
0%
100%
Prob
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Probability Forecasts from Ensembles
Ensembles help forecasters assess the most probable weather
Probability forecasts help end users to assess and manage risk in an uncertain world
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Tropical Cyclone Probabilities Tropical Cyclones are quite small but very damaging Forecasting the exact position of landfall is important but
difficult Ensemble provides a range of tracks
From these we can estimate theprobability of a storm strike in
the next 3 days
Hurricane Isabel, September 2003