RDP/FDP FROST-2014: state of affairs

Dmitry Kiktev

Hydrometcentre of Russia / Roshydromet

18-19 July 2013WWRP JSC6 Meeting, Geneva

Goals of RDP/FDP FROST-2014:

• To improve and exploit:– high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological conditions in winter complex terrain environment;

– regional meso-scale ensemble forecast products in winter complex terrain environment;

– nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (wind, visibility, precipitation type and intensity etc.) in complex terrain.

• To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region;

• To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers.

• To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts)

• To develop a comprehensive information resource of alpine winter weather observations;

3rd meeting of the project participants (10-12 April 2013, Saint Petersburg)

Participants of the FROST-2014 project: COSMO, EC, FMI, HIRLAM, KMA, NOAA, Roshydromet,

ZAMG under supervision of the WWRP WGs on Nowcasting, Mesoscale Forecasting, Verification Research

FROST-2014 Observational Set-up for the Sochi Olympics

• About 50 automatic meteorological stations;• Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 in Sochi;• Temperature/Humidity Profiler HATPRO;• Wind Profiler Scintec-3000;• Two METEK Micro Rain Radars (MRR-2);• 4 times/day upper air sounding in Sochi

The Olympic sport venues

• Each venue has one basic station and 1-4 supplementary stations;• Each basic station has fixed set of sensors;• Supplementary stations have variable set of sensors

Basic weather stations at the sport venues

Parameters: •Temperature and humidity;• Wind parameters (h=10m);• Wind speed (h=2m);• Pressure;• Accumulated precipitation;• Precipitation type;• Visibility;• Height of cloud base;• Snow depth;• Temperature of snow;• Temperature of snow surface;• Solar radiation

Sensors of the basic weather stations

Supplementary weather stations

Fixed set of parameters:

Temperature and humidity;

Snow depth (except stations 39041, 39048);

Temperature of snow (except st. 39041, 39048);

Temperature of snow surface (except st. 39048);

Options (for some stations): • Wind parameters (h=10m) (stations 39041, 39046, 39048);• Wind speed (h=2m) (station 39043);• Pressure (station 39043);• Sum of precipitation (station 39046);• Visibility and Type of precipitation (stations 39041, 39046, 39048)

Quality Control of station observations• At the moment

implemented

partially for real-time data

• Parameters:

T, humidity, wind, Pmsl

• Components:

- Check of limits; - Spatial control - for observations at 00, 03, 06 ..21 UTC;- Temporal control – for 10-minute observations;- QC with respect to COSMO-2.2 forecasts (works better for temperature than for humidity);- Manual control

Snow Density Measurements

During snowfalls manual snow density measurements are curried out by the party of anti-avalunch service in Krasnaya Polyana.

According to AMS observations there were precipitation intensities up to 30 cm/hour at Roza-Khutor.

Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 on Akhun mountain in Sochi was launched in September 2012

• Max reflectivity; • wind&refl 2km-cappy; • echo tops;• 1-hour precipitation

Altitude – 646 m Location: 43о32’52,6״ N, 39о51 ״05,0׳ E.

Raw Turkish data are expected to be

available

Composite map for the Akhun, Trabzon and Samsun radars

- Temperature/Humidity – HATPRO (RPG GmBh, Germany);- Wind – Scintec-3000 Radar Wind Profiler (Scintec Corp, USA);- Two METEK Micro Rain vertically pointing Radars (MRR-2)

Profilers

+ 4 times/day upper air sounding in Sochi

Input from the project participants:

Roshydromet: COSMO and other activitiesCurrent state: Regular runs of COSMO-RU7, COSMO-RU2. Expected: nudging-based data assimilation, more frequent update cycle.COSMO-RU with ~1km spacing (together with MeteoSwiss and DWD). 3D-Var assimilation with COSMO-RU2, assimilation of satellite and Doppler radar radial winds. Attempts to introduce an ensemble data assimilation component.Integrating multi-system nowcasting and short-range forecasting input.

ARPA-SIMC/COSMOCurrent state: Regular generation of COSMO-S14-EPS products with 7-km grid spacing. Provision of boundary and initial conditions for COSMO-RU7-EPS. Improvement of soil initial conditions in COSMO-S14-EPS.Provision of boundary and initial conditions for further downscaling in Roshydromet.Intercomparison of COSMO-S14-EPS and ECMWF-EPS using SYNOP reports.Expected: Continuous provision of COSMO-S14-EPS fields.

MeteoSwiss/COSMO: Development and experiments with 1 km COSMO version.DWD/COSMO: Experiments with regional data assimilation

Input from the project participants-2:

HIRLAM: Current state: Providing GLAMEPS output routinelyCalibration of GLAMEPS forecasts at observational sites in the Sochi area has not yet started. Tests of HarmonEPS ongoing

Expected: Run HarmonEPS for the area of Sochi.Continue to deliver GLAMEPS outputCalibration of GLAMEPS forecasts in routine by 1 December at latest.

Environment Canada:Current state: Real-time system now set up and running. Includes initial and boundary conditions from 25 km global run (GEM model) with one-way nests to 10 km, 2.5 km, 1 km, and 250 m grids. 4D-Var for 25 km global (driving) model.

Expected: Increase of vertical resolution with considerably higher resolution in the boundary layer. Modifications to the microphysics.Global (driving) model with 4D-Var may switch from 25 km to 15 km by 2014.External land surface modeling system (e.g. 100 m) and high-resolution snow analysis may be done by next year.

Input from the project participants-3:

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG)

Current state: INCA 1-hourly analysis and forecast grb files transfer startedExpected: Aladin LAEF (Test data are already on the FROST-2014 server)

FMI: Expected: Quasi-operational running of HARMONIE with 2.5 km spacing for Sochi region.Testing of HARMONIE with different resolutions (1 - 1.5 - 2.5 km) and different orographic datasetsQuasi-operational running of FMI Road Weather Model for selected Sochi highways.Close-to-real-time objective point verification with FMI verification package for model output that is available at common FROST-2014 ftp server; also final forecasts produced by meteorologists, if available

IRAMCurrent state: MeteoExpert nowcasting system data transfer to the project server .

Input from the project participants - 4

NOAACurrent state:Routine 1 km NMMB model run (4X/day) initialized from the GFS. Resolved some problems with gridded output products, began work on time series output at specific points.Routine 7-member NMMB-based ensemble at 7 km grid spacing (2X/day).Point forecasts in XML-format

Korean Meteorological Administration Expected: Site-specific forecasts over Sochi-area by downscaling from global model (25km). High resolution forecast(1km) over Sochi-area. Several meter resolution Land Surface Process for game area by dynamic and statistical downscaling from 1km. Site-specific probablistic forecasts over Sochi-area by downscaling from global ensemble models.Data assimilation: Depend on collected observation data (Successive Correction Method).Objective verification of site specific forecasts.

N

iiii tbtfttOttF ))()(()())(1()()(

Integrating multi-system forecast inputsat the Hydrometcentre of Russia

• F. Woodcock and C. Engel: Operational Consensus Forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 2005;

• L.X. Huang and G.A. Isaac: Integrating NWP Forecasts and Observation Data to Improve Nowcasting Accuracy, Weather and Forecasting, 2012

F(t) – integrated forecast (t – forecast time);O – last available observation; fi(t) – forecast of i-th participating forecasting system;α(t), βi(t) - weights;bi(t) - bias for i-th forecasting system

In [Huang, Isaac, 2012] Bttb ii )()(

Nowcasting project component:

INTW, CARDS, ABOM, INCA, MeteoExpert, HMC’s system

Deterministic NWP project component

• COSMO-RU with grid spacing 2.2 km, 1 km (new); • GEM with grid spacing 2.5km, 1km, 0.25km; • NMMB – 1 km;• HARMONIE - 2.5km• KMA’s 1km version of UM• … GEM - 250 m

Ensemble project component

Current state: COSMO-S14-EPS, GLAMEPS, NOAA-7km EPS, Aladin LAEF, COSMO-RU2

Expected: HARMON-EPSKMA’s downscaling of probabilistic forecasts.Poor man’s ensemble of deterministic high-resolution models

JSC5 Decisions /Actions Required

44. JSC endorsed the FDP/RDP proposal for Sochi Winter Olympic Games in 2014, but expressed concern that the proposal timelines would not provide a stable software environment for the forecasters, thus jeopardizingthe provision of accurate forecast information. It was also suggested that trial periods and decided training activities be conducted to expose the Olympic forecasters to the new models.

Grapical Tools

COSMO-RU02

Horizontal resolution 2.2 km

Grapical Tools

Forecaster role: Best forecasts include a forecaster with conceptual models of local process evolution and access to automated tools.

• FROST-2014 is intended as an ‘end-to-end’ project. Its products will be used by local forecasters for meteorological support of the Olympics and preceding test sport events.• The last chance to introduce new FDP-products to forecasters will be training in October 2013 (before that there will be training in August).

Forecasters training

• Forecasters trainings are held on regular basis;• Participants are involved into provision of meteorological services for sport test events.

Forecast Verification

• METv4.0+ (Model Evaluation Tool / NCAR) software was adapted for the FROST-2014 needs;

• Two papers on forecast verification for Sochi region were submitted;

• Official forecasts are planned to be available for further verification along with the project objective forecasts

• Distributed verification activity ? (Roshydromet–FMI (JWG on Verification Research))

Station-based diagnostic verification on example of COSMO-RU2 forecasts

The values relate to the histogram bin centers. Green lines denote the bin sample volume of at least 20 pairs (sample stability). Calibration implies a shift of the forecast mean-median to the leading diagonal. The t2m area outside the green strip indicates sample instability (calibration uncertainty). Importance of the above ‘diagnostic verification’ for decision-making.

Parameter: T2m

Station: RKHU1, (Aibga) 2250 m.

Period: winter

2011-2012

Polygonal Verification for SOCHI_COAST (19 Stations), ADLER_COAST (8), KR_POLYANA (22), ALPICA(20)

Local Climatology: ‘Coastal zone’ (0 – 300 m), ‘Submountane zone’ (300-600 m), ‘Alpine zone’ (600 – 2500 m).

SKILL SCORINGfor the polygons

Category T2m > 0C forecasts. Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant,

(Peirce skill score).

Period: winter 2011-2012

Obs-Frcs matching: for every hour with 10 min obs window; several interpolation methods to

COSMO grid were tried

Measures: Categorical (contingency tables) and continuous scores, 95%

confidence intervals

Sochi coast

coastal cluster

Kr Polyana

a b

c d

e f

Sochi coast

coastal cluster

Kr Polyana

MEAN ERROR RMSE

COSMO-RU2 T2m Mean Errors for “Krasnaya Polyana” polygon for two consequent winter seasons:

Mean Error changed its sign !

01.12.2011-31.03.2012 01.01.2013-15.03.2013

Potential reasons behind:- effects of inter-annual changes in the large-scale circulation (winter 2012-2013 was unusually warm) ? - changes in the driving global model ?- …………..

Radar max reflectivity versus NMMB column max reflectivity and 1-hour precipitation total

with 6 hrs lead time

With precautions it will be tried as a ground for spatial verification

Social and Economic Impacts

Socially significant project application areas:• Education• Understanding• Transfer of technologies• Practical forecasting – first guess for operational official forecasts.

Integrated project forecasts will be used as a first guess for the data feed to the Olympic information system (supported by IOC partner Atos Origin) and Olympic Broadcasting Services (OBS).

Two Earths (with and without FROST-2014) are needed for the project impact assessment !

Thank you!

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru

Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed): Roshydromet’s stations

Station Name WMO index

Coordinates Hm

Measured parameters

T air Rel. hum.

Wind Liquid Precip.

SolidPrecip.

Snow Height

Snow T Visibility Atm. Pressur

e

Cloud base

Aviation station «Adler» 37171 43°26'20,83" 39°55'50,80" + + + + + + +

Automated АМК «Sochi» 37099 43°34'23,76" 39°45'21,00" 142 + + + + + +

Krasnaya Polyana 37107 43°40'56,10" 40°12'10,52" 565 + + + + + + +

Kordon Laura 37090 43°41'59,15" 40°15'54,56" 575 + + + + + + +

Aibga 37108 43°38'5,29" 40°17'4,69" 2225 + + + + + +

Gornaya carousel -1000 37102 43°40'04” 40°15'24” 977,8 + + + + + + + +

Gornaya carousel -1500 37098 43°39'15" 40°15'04" 1434 + + + + + + + +

Kepsha 37100 43°36'54,18" 40°2'56,60" 180 + + + + + + + + +

Solokh-Aul 37092 43°48' 39°38' 230 + + + + + + + + +

Lazarevskoye 37093 43°54' 39°20' 20 + + + + + + + +

Magry 37015 43°01' 39°10' 25 + + + + +

Imeretinka 37095 43°24'05" 39°57'14" 60 + + + + + +

Kichmai 37094 43°50'00" 39°30'43" 38

2 stations (Alpica-Service-1000&1500) were closed. 3 new stations were opened (Gornaya Carousel-1000&1500, Kichmai) Issues: tipping bucket; 1-hour precipitation totals; snow height

Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed): IRAM’s Stations at the sport venues

Station Name WMO index

Coordinates Hm

Measured parametersT air Rel.

humidity

Wind Directi

on

Wind Speed

Liquid Precip

.

SolidPrecip

.

Snow Height

Snow surfac

e T

Snow T

Visibility

Atm. Press

ure

Cloud base

Biathlon + Skiing Venue

Biathlon-1400 39042 43°41'35,32" 40°19'6,73" 1405 + + + + +Biathlon Stadium 39044 43°41'31,63" 40°19'36,05" 1455 + + + + + + + + + + +Skiing Stadium 39043 43°41'40,52" 40°19'43,69" 1480 + + + + + + +Biathlon-1500 39045 43°41'34,90" 40°20'6,70" 1495 + + + + +

Ski Jumping

Ski Jumping-800 39041 43°40'27,10" 40°14'24,30" 781 + + + + + + + + + + +Ski Jumping-650 39040 43°40'38,30" 40°14'24,30" 628 + + + + + + + + + + + +Nordic combined-675 39050 43°40'39" 40°14'15" 676

Nordic combinedn-615 39051 43°40'39" 40°14'04" 616

Sledge

Sledge-830 39046 43°39'45,30" 40°17'10,02" 830 + + + + + + + + +Sledge-700 39047 43°40'7,33" 40°17'19,97" 700 + + + + + + + + + + + +

Snowboard & Freestyle

Snowboard 39049 43°39'22,12" 40°19'42,59" 1020 + + + + + + + + + + + +Freestyle 39048 43°39'12,46" 40°19'14,02" 1130 + + + + + + + + +

Basic frequency of observations - 10-minutes; 1-minute observations for prec intensity, visibility, cloud base, wind gusts

Issues: snow surface temperature and height

Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed):Roza-Khutor - Alpine Skiing Venue

Station Name Coordinates H,m

Measured parameters

T air Rel. humidi

ty

Wind Directi

on

Wind Speed

Liquid Precip.

SolidPrecip.

Snow Height

Snow surfac

e T

Snow T

Visibility

Atm. Pressu

re

Cloud base

11Sr (Aibga) 43°37'24" 40°18'45" 2320 + + + + +

12Sr (Men’s start) 43°37'47" 40°18'25" 2040 + + + + + + + + + + +

13Sr (Women’s start)

43°38'08" 40°18'32" 1750 + + + + + + + + + + +

14Sr(Middle Point) 43°38'22" 40°18'47" 1580 + + + + + + + + +

17Sr(Finish) 43°38'43" 40°19'53" 980 + + + + + + + + + + + +

Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed) : «Meteofon» stations at the towers of mobile communication

Station Name WMO index

Coordinates HAbove

sea lev.,m

Measured parameters (Vaisala WXT-520)Air

temperature

Rel. humidity

Wind Direction

Wind Speed

Liquid Precip.Amount

SolidPrecip.Amount

Atm. Pressure

Sochi-Plastunka 39003 43°38'23" 39°45'26" 152 + + + + + +Adler-Galitsino 39016 43°32'03" 39°59'15" 485 + + + + + +Esto-Sadok 39021 43°41'14" 40°15'23" 525 + + + + + +Matsesta-Chai 39024 43°37'36" 39°52'39" 421 + + + + + +Akhun mountain 39022 43°32'53" 39°51'03" 693 + + + + + +Krasnaya Polyana 39025 43°40'23" 40°12'03" 503 + + + + + +Kalinovo lake 39002 43°36'58" 39°52'55" 403 + + + + + +Adler-Airport 39013 43°26'42" 39°55'12" 146 + + + + + +Veseloye 39012 43°26'24" 40°00'36" 124 + + + + + +Ermolovka 39014 43°27'36" 40°01'48" 346 + + + + + +Lesnoye 39017 43°34'12" 39°58'48" 339 + + + + + +Pogranichnik 39010 43°25'12" 39°55'12" 12 + + + + + +Loo 39026 43°42'36" 39°34'48" 180 + + + + + +Pikhtinka 39023 43°37'12" 40°04'48" 720 + + + + + +Zubova shel 39005 43°49'48" 39°25'12" 215 + + + + + +Adler-Norluis 39011 43°25'28" 39°58'54" 173 + + + + + +Adler-Moldovka 39015 43°28'21" 39°57'36" 205 + + + + + +Sochi-Obzornaya 39004 43°40'53" 39°42'23" 381 + + + + + +Sochi-Verbliud 39001 43°35'08" 40°00'34" 285 + + + + + +Veseloye-Mirra 39020 43°24'54" 40°00'18" 28 + + + + + +Issues related: Nonstandard height; precipitation measurements