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Rand study on diversity in the drawdown.

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  • Maria C. Lytell, Kenneth Kuhn, Abigail Haddad,

    Jefferson P. Marquis, Nelson Lim, Kimberly Curry Hall,

    Robert Stewart, Jennie W. Wenger

    Force Drawdowns and Demographic DiversityInvestigating the Impact of Force Reductions on the Demographic Diversity of the U.S. Military

    C O R P O R A T I O N

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    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataISBN: 978-0-8330-9149-9

    For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1008

    Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.

    Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation

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  • iii

    Preface

    In January 2012, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced plans for a major reduction in the size of the U.S. armed forcea force drawdownin response to budgetary constraints and an upcoming end to combat operations in Afghanistan. Although the Navy and Air Force already reduced their forces earlier, in the mid-2000s, the Army and Marine Corps had not seen a major reduction since the 1990s, after the Cold War. With some exceptions, the services did not take demographic diversity into account in their drawdown goals and strat-egies in the 1990s. With another drawdown occurring, DoD asked the RAND Corporation to examine whether future reductions could have unintended negative consequences for racial/ethnic minorities and women. To examine this issue, RAND conducted a review and analy-sis of the demographic profile changes during the 1990s drawdown and the mid-2000s drawdowns in the Navy and Air Force, followed by an analysis of the potential impact of force reduction policy decisions on the demographic profile of the DoD workforce. This report should be of interest to policymakers and others concerned with how force man-agement decisions not specifically geared toward diversity goals may nonetheless affect demographic diversity.

    This research was sponsored by the Office of Diversity Manage-ment and Equal Opportunity (ODMEO) in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Personnel and Readiness) and conducted within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop-ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the

  • iv Force Drawdowns and Demographic Diversity

    Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the Forces and Resources Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/frp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).

  • vContents

    Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iiiFigures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiTables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixSummary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiiiAcknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxxiiiAbbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxxv

    CHAPTER ONE

    Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Defining Demographic Diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Study Questions and Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Key Themes from Reserve Component and Defense Civilian Drawdowns . . . 6Organization of This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

    CHAPTER TWO

    Active-Duty Drawdown in the 1990s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Goals and Strategies for the 1990s Drawdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Force Structure After the 1990s Drawdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Demographic Diversity During and After the 1990s Drawdown . . . . . . . . . . 24Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

    CHAPTER THREE

    Navy and Air Force Active-Duty Drawdowns in the Mid-2000s . . . . . . . 39Goals and Strategies for the Mid-2000s Drawdowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Force Structure After the Mid-2000s Drawdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

  • vi Force Drawdowns and Demographic Diversity

    Demographic Diversity During and After the Mid-2000s Drawdown . . . . 44Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

    CHAPTER FOUR

    Law, Policy, and Plans for Recent Active-Duty Drawdowns . . . . . . . . . . . . 53Discussions with Experts on Recent Drawdowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53Size of Recent Reductions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54Service Goals and Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

    CHAPTER FIVE

    Potential Impact of Recent Drawdowns on Demographic Diversity in Active-Duty Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

    Scenario Development and Analytic Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Army . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Marine Corps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79Air Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81Navy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93Policy Implications of Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

    CHAPTER SIX

    Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1031990s Drawdown. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103Drawdowns in the 2000s and 2010s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105Scenarios for Future Active-Duty Drawdowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109Final Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

    APPENDIX

    A. Reserve Component Drawdowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115B. Civilian Drawdowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135C. Methodology and Additional Results for Chapters Two

    to Four . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155D. Overview of Tools Available for Recent Drawdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

    References . . .

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