WELCOMESIMIQ3 Motor Industry ReviewIn association with DoneDeal

Q3 ReviewAlan NolanDirector GeneralSIMI

SIMI DoneDeal 3rd Quarter Motor Industry Review

• Author Jim Power• Sponsored by Done Deal• Snapshot of 1st 9 Months of 2015

SIMI DoneDeal 3rd Quarter Motor Industry Review

Business Significantly up• New Car Registrations +30%• New LCV Registrations +48%• New HGV Registrations +25%• Used Car Sales +17%• Used Import Sales +9%

Government Revenue Significantly Up (9 Mths)• €903 Million in VRT & VAT from Car Sales• €4.1 Billion Total Revenues from Motor Industry

SIMI DoneDeal 3rd Quarter Motor Industry Review

• New 2 Period Registration System:– Aim to create a second Peak– Spread registrations better in two halves of year– Opportunity for 2nd Start if Bad January

• Has Exceeded Expectations:– 17% of New Car Registrations in 2nd half of 2012– 30% of New Car Registrations in 2nd half of 2014

Monthly Car Registrations

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013 2014

SIMI Members Survey

SIMI Members Survey

SIMI Members Survey

SIMI Members Survey

SIMI Members Survey

SIMI Members Survey

SIMI Members Survey

SIMI Members Survey

• Avg Number of Staff = 18• Avg Increase in Staff = 1.5 (8%)• Avg Apprentices Employed = 1.4• Avg Apprentices taken-on 2014 = .6• Avg Apprentices in next 6Mths = .5

Motor Industry Employment

• 41,000 now Employed in 400 Towns• 4,200 New Jobs in past year (350 Per Month!)• Outlook further 1,500 in 2015• Apprentices Currently Employed 1,623• Strong Demand in 2015 for young employees– Apprenticeship etc.

Introducing:

• Sponsors Done Deal– Cathal Cremen

• Author of Report – Jim Power

Q3 ReviewJim PowerReport AuthorJim Power Economics

Economic & Motor Industry Update Q3 2014

JimPower

October 21st 2014

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMY 2014

International environment better – but Euro Zone a key concern

Significant growth in H1 GDP +5.8%

Retail Sales Volume +6.9% Value +4.8% (Jan-Aug)

Retail Sales (ex-cars) Volume +3.5% Value +1.6% (Jan-Aug)

New Car Registrations +30% (Jan-Sep)

Merchandise Exports (Jan-Aug) +0.5% Food +8.5% Chemicals -0.4% (Patent Issue)

Manufacturing Output (Jan-Jul) +18.5%

Tourism Strong - Overseas Visitors (Jan-Jul) +11.1%

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN 2014 (CTD)

Live Register 374,800 Unemployment 11.1% -59,800 (2012-2014)

Employment Q2 2014 +31,600 (YoY)

Exchequer finances improving – tax revenues buoyant

Credit conditions still challenging

Housing market improving strongly

Consumer confidence stronger

Successful exit from Troika

Economic recovery gathering momentum

H1 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

% YoY

GDP +5.8%

GNP +6.1%

Consumption +1.2%

Gov. Expenditure +5.2%

Investment +11.3%

Exports Goods & Services +10.2%

Imports Goods & Services +8.9%

GROWTH IN CONSUMER EXPENDITURE

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

%

EMPLOYMENT (S/A)

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2009

Q1

2009

Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

2011

Q1

2011

Q3

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

2013

Q1

2013

Q3

2014

Q11600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

(000s)

BACKGROUND TO BUDGET

• IMF downgrading global growth – particularly Euro Zone

• Compelling evidence of domestic economic recovery

• Fiscal targets over-achieved, but still borrowing too much

• 10-year bond sales €1 bln @1.63% October 2014

• No requirement for €2 bln adjustment• Political pressures to change course

ECONOMIC FORECASTS UNDERLYING BUDGET 2015

2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

GDP 0.2% 4.7% 3.9% 3.4%

GNP 3.2% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1%

Consumption

-0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 1.4%

Government 1.4% 4.8% 2.3% 0.0%

Investment -2.4% 14.6% 12.7% 7.6%

Exports 1.1% 8.3% 4.8% 4.3%

Imports 0.6% 8.8% 5.3% 3.6%

Domestic Demand

-0.7% 3.6% 3.6% 1.9%

Inflation (HICP)

0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4%

Employment 2.4% 1.8% 2.4% 1.9%

Unemployment

13.1% 11.4% 10.2% 9.4%

KEY ECONOMIC RISKS/CHALLENGES

• Euro Zone Economic Outlook

• Sovereign debt levels still too high

• Personal & SME debt overhang

• Housing market imbalances

• Political developments

• But Economy in a much better place

• Budget 2015 will give welcome stimulus

• Could not have imagined this 2 years ago!

THE MOTOR INDUSTRY Q3 2014

• New private cars registered +48.6%

• Light Commercial Vehicles +76.7%

• Heavy Commercial Vehicles -7.9%%

• Every county reported good growth in new car registrations

• Imported Cars -1.5% (32.2% of Total Cars Licensed)

• CO2 Emissions continue to fall

• SIMI member confidence survey positive

• Costs of motoring : Year to September: Petrol -3.9%, Diesel -4.6%, Insurance +6.7%, Average New Car price -2.8%

• Making stronger contribution to Exchequer

• Q1-Q3 2014 New Private Cars registered +29.8%

EMPLOYMENT IN THE MOTOR TRADE

Q3 98

Q1 99

Q3 99

Q1 00

Q3 00

Q1 01

Q3 01

Q1 02

Q3 02

Q1 03

Q3 03

Q1 04

Q3 04

Q1 05

Q3 05

Q1 06

Q3 06

Q1 07

Q3 07

Q1 08

Q3 08

Q1 09

Q3 09

Q1 10

Q3 10

Q1 11

Q3 11

Q1 12

Q3 12

Q1 13

Q3 13

Q1 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60(o

oos)

CARS REGISTRATIONS

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Q1-Q3)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

NEW CARS (%) IMPORTED CARS (%)

NEW CAR REGISTRATION AVERAGE CO2 EMISSIONS

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Q1-Q3)100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

MONTHLY REGISTRATIONS

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013 2014

EXCHEQUER REVENUES FROM MOTOR INDUSTRY Q1-Q3 2014

NEW CAR REGISTRATIONS

(€mln) % GROWTH

VRT 413 +21.9%

VAT 360 +33.2%

Total 773 +31%

USED CAR REGISTRATIONS

(€ mln) % GROWTH

VRT 114 +12.5%

VAT 16 +10.9%

Total 130 +12.3%

GRAND TOTAL 903 +27.9%

ECONOMIC IMPACT & POTENTIAL OF INDUSTRY• Contributed €903 mln to Exchequer Q1-Q3 2014

(€1.8 billion in 2007)

• Tax take from fuel €2.3 billion (Jan-Aug)

• Every 10,000 extra new cars +€82 million to Exchequer

• Q2 2014: 41,000 employed in industry

• 130 new jobs for every 1,000 extra cars sold

• 120,000 possible in 2015

• Making increasingly stronger contribution to national and local economies

AUTO MARKET IN 2015

• 95,000 likely for 2014

• 120,000 possible in 2015

• Consumer confidence

• Credit availability

• Limited fiscal easing

• €1 bln + contribution to Exchequer

• Budget did no damage & will provide some support

DONEDEAL ADVERTISING MARKET VOLUME

Jan-

12

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-

12

Nov-1

2

Jan-

13

Mar-1

3

May-1

3

Jul-1

3

Sep-

13

Nov-1

3

Jan-

14

Mar-1

4

May-1

4

Jul-1

4

Sep-

140

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

CARS MOTOR-EXCL. CARS

VALUE OF ADVERTISING MARKET DONEDEAL

Jan-

12

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-

12

Nov-1

2

Jan-

13

Mar-1

3

May-1

3

Jul-1

3

Sep-

13

Nov-1

3

Jan-

14

Mar-1

4

May-1

4

Jul-1

4

Sep-

140

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

Cars  MOTOR EX-CARS

THANK YOU

Q3 ReviewCathal CremenCommercial ManagerDoneDeal

DoneDeal – The Marketplace

In the Year to Q3 – 2014

Motor Ads - 9.7% increase (Total ads )

Car Ads – 11.3% increase (Total Ads)

Dealer Car Ads – 27.5% increasePrivate Car Ads – 3.8% increase

800+ Dealers Advertising on DoneDeal

DoneDeal – “Traffic”

Motor Section (Q1 – Q3 2014)

Visits – 101 Million (2013 – 65 Million)

Page Views – 1.27 Billion (2013 – 1.08 Billion)

DoneDeal – Advertised Value

€3.05 Billion(Value of goods advertised on DoneDeal Motor (Q1-Q3

2014)

DoneDeal

Thank You