auto industry chartbook (3q15) - bbva research€¦ · houston, tx third quarter 2015. key messages...
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U.S. Auto Industry
Chartbook
BBVA Research USA
Houston, TX Third Quarter 2015
Key messages
• Light motor vehicle sales reached 18.16 million in September, the highest level since July 2005
• Sales of light and heavy trucks follow an upward trend boosted by cheap fuel, employment growth and low interest rates
• Financial conditions are favorable, with rates still at historical lows and loan originations currently in pre-crisis levels
• Sustained economic growth and low energy prices will continue to support demand for light motor vehicle sales
• At 11.4, the average age of vehicle fleet could spur replacement in the short-term
• Demand for plug-in hybrids improved slightly in 3Q15, but remains constrained by the impact of low gasoline prices
3
Sales
4
SalesU.S. Total light weight vehicle sales (SAAR*, million units)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TotalDomesticImported
Average 2001-2007: 16.7 million
Sep 2015: 18.16 million
*SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rateSource: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
5
SalesU.S. Total vehicle sales (SAAR, million units)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Cars (left axis)
Light trucks (left axis)
Medium and heavy trucks (right axis)
*SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rateSource: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
6
Sales
Source: Bloomberg
U.S. Vehicle days to turn (industry average)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
7
SalesU.S. Market share by brand (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
3Q15 3Q05
Source: Bloomberg
8
SalesU.S. Quarterly unit sales (yoy % change)
Source: Bloomberg
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2015 Q3 2014 Q3
9
PricesU.S. Consumer price index: cars and trucks (yoy % change)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New
Used
Source: Haver Analytics
10
PricesU.S. Auto prices
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manheim used vehicle value index (left axis)
True market value (avg. all segments, $thous, 4-Q moving average, right axis)
Source: Haver Analytics & Bloomberg
11
Financing conditions
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
48-month new car loan
36-month used car loan
60-month new car
U.S. Car loan rates (%)
Source: Haver Analytics
12
Financing conditions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S. Auto loan 90+ days delinquent (% of balance)
Source: Haver Analytics
13
Financing conditions
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S. Leasing penetration rate, %
Source: Bloomberg
14
Financing conditions
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S. Newly originated installment auto loans ($ billion, eop, 4-qtr moving average)
Source: Haver Analytics
15
Gasoline
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S. Spot price ($/gallon)
Source: Haver Analytics
16
Consumers
17
Consumers
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Current economic conditions
Consumer expectations
U.S. Consumer sentiment index
Source: Haver Analytics
18
Consumers
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S. Plans to buy a car within 6 months, % of respondents
Source: Haver Analytics
19
Consumers
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real disposablepersonal income
Employment growth
Average RDPI growth 2001-2006 = 3.2%
Average RDPI growth 2010-2Q15 = 1.9%
U.S. Employment and real disposable personal income growth (yoy % change)
Source: BBVA Research and Haver Analytics
20
Household equity
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Owners equity in real estate (NSA, Bil $, left axis)
FHFA house price index (yoy change, right axis)
U.S. Household equity and home prices
Source: Haver Analytics
21
Savings and deleverage
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Debt service ratio (right axis)
Personal savings (left axis)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Personal savings (left axis))
U.S. Debt-to-income ratio and savings rate
Source: Haver Analytics
22
Production
23
Production
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Industrial production index: autos (2007=100, left axis)
BEA auto production estimate (SAAR, million.units, right axis)
U.S. Auto production
SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate, BEA = U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisSource: BBVA Research & Haver Analytics
24
Structural
25
FundamentalsU.S. Vehicle miles of travelTrillions
U.S. Mean age of passenger cars in operationYears
8
9
10
11
12
04
05
06
07
08
09 10 11 12 13
2014: 11.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
74 79 84
89
94
99
04
09 14
2014: 3.03
Source: Haver Analytics
26
Demographics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
204
0
204
2
204
4
204
6
204
8
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
206
0
65 years and over
15-44 years
U.S. Population projections by age (millions)
Source: Haver Analytics
27
Demographics
Les than 19years old
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 and more0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2002 2012
U.S. Licensed drivers by age
Source: Haver Analytics
28
Alternative vehicles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Feb
-11
Ap
r-11
Jun
-11
Au
g-1
1
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
Ap
r-14
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
Feb
-15
Ap
r-15
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
U.S. New plug-in vehicle sales (thousands)
Source: Electric Drive Transportation Association
29
Forecasts
30
Forecasts
Average 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Auto sales (millions units) 14.5 15.6 16.5 17.4 17.2
GDP growth(% change) 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8*
Unemployment rate (% avg.)
8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9
Fed funds(%, eop) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.00
5-year Treasuries(%, avg) 0.76 1.17 1.64 1.51 1.79
* Currently under revisionSource: BBVA Research
U.S. Auto Industry
Chartbook
BBVA Research USA
Houston, TX Third Quarter 3Q15