1

Delay & Feedback

In complex systems, cause and effect

are distant in time and space

2

Behavior Over Time Graph

A BOTG is a simple tool that can help people focus on patterns of change

over time rather than on isolated events, leading to rich discussions on how and why something is changing

3

Time

Variables

BOTG (examples)

4

Hours

Temperature

8 a.

m.

8 p.

m.

BOTG (examples)

5

Years

Savings

1st Y

ear

20th Y

ear

BOTG (examples)

6

Hours

Anger

Low

Medium

High

Plot your anger in Cookie Story

7

Why use BOTG

Helps focus on patterns of change over

time rather than on single events.

Helps one think about underlining

causes of those changes.

Helps to take proactive actions.

8

What is the difference between

Cause and Effect Relationship

&

Causal Relationship

9

Cause Effect

Cause & Effect

10

Hunger Consumption

of food

Cause & Effect

11

A B C D

Cause & Effect

12

Crop HarvestingPlanting Seeds in

Development

Cause & Effect

13

A B C D

Causal Relationship

14

Crop HarvestingPlanting Seeds in

Development

Causal Relationship

15

GoodTeacher Academic

Success

GoodParenting

Good ClassroomEnvironment

Intelligence

Multiple Causes & Effect.

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GoodTeacher

AcademicSuccess

GoodParenting

Good ClassroomEnvironment

Intelligence

Causal Relationship

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Good Teacher AcademicSuccess

Good Parenting

Good ClassroomEnvironment

Intelligence

Causal Relationship

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System & Causality

A system always behaves based on

causal relationships and not on cause

and effect

There are 3 fundamental building

blocks to a causal relationship Reinforcing Loop Balancing Loop Delay

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Reinforcing Processes

It means information that compounds change in one direction with even more change in the same direction.

SavingBalance

InterestPayment

S

S

20

High motivation Success

Can you think of any other example of reinforcing loop?

S

S

Reinforcing Loop

21

Unemployment

Poverty

Can you think of any other example of reinforcing loop?

Illiteracy S

S

S

Reinforcing Loop

22Time

Variable

Can you draw a BOTG graph of Reinforcing

Loop ?

23

Reading Time

Balance a paper tube on your finger

G

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Balancing Processes

It means information which produces change in the opposite direction negating the previous effect.

Corrective Action

Gap

S

S

Actual Grades

Goal(Good Grades)

S

O

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Balancing Processes

It means information which produces change in the opposite direction negating the previous effect.

Use of RelaxationExercise

Gap

S

S

Stress Level

AcceptableStress Level

S

O

26

Hunger Consumption

of food

Can you think of any other example of Balancing loop?

S

O

Balancing Loop

27Time

Variable

Can you draw a BOTG graph of Balancing loop ?

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Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be acted upon

Vary up or down over time (not an event) Nouns or noun phrases (not action words)

Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the direction of influence between variables

S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another

S stands for "same direction” O stands for "opposite direction”

or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium

or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change

COMPONENTS OF A CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM

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These building blocks are: 1. Variables 2. Links

3. Mental Models/Thought Bubbles

4. Direction of Links/S's and O's

5. Delays

6. Type of Feedback Loops

Building Blocks Of Causal Loops

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VariablesVariables are typically neutral nouns or noun phrases. They represent an element in a situation where the pattern of behaviour changes over time.

Examples:

1. Customers (rather than Lost Customers)

2. Sales (rather than Lost Sales)

3. Pledges & Promises

4. Service Quality (rather than Poor Service)

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Definition and Characteristics of a Variable

Is an element in a situation that may act or be acted upon.

Its value can vary up or down over time. Is not an event. Is something you can discuss as "the level of . . . " Key test - it's a variable if you can plot its value over

time.

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Links

Links represent a causal relationship between two variables. A change in one variable causes a change in another.

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Mental Models/Thought Bubbles

Thought bubbles represent the thinking behind the action/choice that the link expresses.

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Direction of Links / S's and O's Indicates the direction in which the

first variable impacts the second. Direction can either be the same (S) or opposite (O).

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Delay

A delay is indicated by a pair of parallel lines (//) on a link. This symbol marks those links with the most significant delays.

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Type of Feedback:Reinforcing or Balancing There are only two types of feedback: reinforcing and balancing.

Each has a characteristic pattern of performance.

We note reinforcing feedback loops with an R in the centre; balancing feedback loops are marked with a B.

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38

EmployeePerformance

Supervisor’sSupportiveBehavior

UnsupportiveBehavior

Structure

S

S

REINFORCING LOOP

Perf.Level

Time

Behavior Over Time

Supportive Behavior

EmployeePerformance

Supervisor’sSupportiveBehavior

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Discrepancy

InventoryAdjustment

Structure

ActualInventory

DesiredInventory

Desired Inventory

Time

Behavior Over Time

100

100 - -

100 ++

Actual Inventory

S

S

S

O

BALANCING LOOP

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Variables

In choosing variables, we are moving down the iceberg from the level of events to the levels of patterns and structure. The first variables to identify are our "performance" measures.

Examples of typical measures include costs, percent of projects completed on schedule, employee retention, and success rate in securing new contracts.

Keep in mind that when we use Systems Thinking tools for problem solving, we are most likely to encounter situations with "multiple symptoms of dysfunction" because of the complexity of the underlying structure.

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Therefore, it is often appropriate to have more than one condition or performance measure that we are interested in understanding and changing.

The next variables of interest are the causes and consequences of the performance or condition or symptom.

When identifying variables, we also want to look for variables that represent our "policies" or decisions and the actions of others that are a result of both problems and success.

In terms of creative tension, identifying variables is a way to describe current reality as key patterns of behaviour over time.

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Therefore, it is often appropriate to have more than one condition or performance measure that we are interested in understanding and changing.

The next variables of interest are the causes and consequences of the performance or condition or symptom.

When identifying variables, we also want to look for variables that represent our "policies" or decisions and the actions of others that are a result of both problems and success.

In terms of creative tension, identifying variables is a way to describe current reality as key patterns of behaviour over time.

43

Definition and Characteristics of a Variable

Is an element in a situation that may act or be acted

upon.

Its value can vary up or down over time.

Is not an event.

Is something you can discuss as "the level of . . . "

Key test - it's a variable if you can plot its value over

time.

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Exercises / Practicing Loops

Money in Bank / Interest payments

Thirst / Drinking

Angry feelings / Angry thoughts

Baby Rabbits / Adult Rabbits

Effort / Learning

Room Temperature / A/C running