q1 fiscal 2019 investor overviews21.q4cdn.com/457874623/files/doc_presentations/... · a proven...
TRANSCRIPT
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Q1 Fiscal 2019 Investor Overview
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Forward-Looking StatementsCertain statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical fact, including estimates, projections, statements related to Valvoline’s business plans and operating results are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Valvoline has identified some of these forward-looking statements with words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “estimates,” “is likely,” “predicts,” “projects,” “forecasts,” “may,” “will,” “should” and “intends” and the negative of these words or other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based on Valvoline’s current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions as of the date such statements are made, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risks and uncertainties are described in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in the “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” sections of Valvoline’s most recently filed periodic reports on Forms 10-K and Forms 10-Q, which are available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com/sec-filings or the SEC’s website at http://sec.gov. Valvoline assumes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements for any reason, even if new information becomes available in the future.
Regulation G: Adjusted ResultsThe information presented herein, regarding certain financial measures that do not conform to generally accepted accounting principles in theUnited States (U.S. GAAP), should not be construed as an alternative to the reported results determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Valvolinehas included this non-GAAP information to assist in understanding the operating performance of the company and its reportable segments. Thenon-GAAP information provided may not be consistent with the methodologies used by other companies. Information regarding Valvoline’sdefinition, calculation and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the tables attached to Valvoline’s most recent earnings pressrelease dated February 6, 2019, which is available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com/financial-reports/quarterly-reports.
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How We Create Value
3
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Our Strategy
4
Building Significant Competitive Advantage across Channels with Products, Services and Technology that Drive Customer Value
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A Proven Track Record of Earnings Growth
5
$359 $412
$440 $447
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Adjusted EBITDA
(Millions)Fiscal Year Ended September 30th
1. For a reconciliation of historical Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income, see appendix to this presentation. 2. System-wide same-store sales (SSS) growth. SSS growth determined on a fiscal year basis with new stores included after first full fiscal year of operation.3. Within branded lubricants.
$466
(1)
12 Consecutive Years of SSS
Growth in VIOC(2)
Volume Growth in International
Product Pricing and Raw Material
Cost Mgt.
Mix Shift Toward Premium
Products(3)
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53%
Capital Allocation Priorities
6
Sustain Core North America’s strong cash generation
Invest organically and inorganically to expand Quick Lubes and grow International
Return excess capital to shareholders viaDividends and Share Repurchases
% of Operating Cash Flow1 Spend2
FY16 – FY18
1
2
3 Target 45-60% of operating cash flow overtime3
1 FY16 and FY18 operating cash flow as reported; FY17 operating cash flow adjusted to exclude ~$400 million voluntary pension contribution.2 Includes capital expenditures, acquisitions, cash dividends and share repurchases, inclusive of borrowings; FY18 share repurchases impacted in part by cash tax benefit of voluntary pension contribution.3 Valvoline’s ability to achieve this target will be based on its level of liquidity, general business and market conditions and other factors, including alternative investment opportunities.
12%
46%
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Core North America Funds Growth Opportunities
7
Generated over $500MM in EBITDA-less-
CapEx in the last three fiscal years
Quick Lubes & Other High-
return projects
Strong EBITDA Margins
Low Capital Intensity
Core North America
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Capital Allocation in Action – Quick Lubes
Quick Lube Market OpportunityNew Unit EconomicsSame Store Sales Growth1
8
1 Fiscal years and fiscal quarters aligned with Valvoline fiscal periods; peer fiscal year data is the average of the fiscal quarters during that period, FYTD2018 represents the three fiscal quarters so far reported by all peers
2 Auto Aftermarket includes Advance Auto Parts, AutoZone, Boyd, Monro and O’Reilly’s; quarterly value is median of the peer group3 Advance Auto Parts, AutoZone and Monro quarterly SSS data placed in most analogous calendar quarter4 Mid Cap Branded CPG Peers include Church & Dwight, Central Garden and Pet, Edgewell Personal Care, Energizer, Sherwin Williams and Spectrum Brands;
quarterly value is median of the peer group
5 Central Garden and Pet organic growth number is as reported for the period, and excludes the impact of portfolio changes where determined by the company6 Energizer quarter ending 3/31 excludes the impact of the divestiture of ASIA7 Sherwin Williams SSS represents the US, Canada, and the Caribbean, from Valvoline FQ2 onward, prior to that it represented the US and Canada8 Sherwin Williams SSS in Valvoline's FQ4 2016, excludes change in revenue classification per company press release9 Store count data based on internal company estimates as of 9/30/2018.
7.5 7.4
8.3
~1
~2 ~2
~3
FY20
16
FY20
17
FY20
18
FY20
17
FYTD
2018
FY20
17
FYTD
2018
VIOC AutoAftermarket2,3
Mid CapBranded CPG4-8
(Organic Growth)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Store EBITDA Ramp
Avg. capital investment of $1.5M
~$350k U.S.
Jiffy Lube
Valvoline includingExpress Care
Express Oil Change
CanadaJiffy Lube
Valvoline includingExpress Care
Mr. Lube
Store count9(%)
Non-national brands
Non-national brands
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Creating Value by Driving Quick Lube Growth
9
FY16 FY23E2
Trend in Adjusted EBITDA1 Mix
FY18
Our most profitable business is the fastest growing
1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to the appendix to this presentation and Valvoline‘s earnings release dated November 5, 2018.2 Expected adjusted EBITDA mix based on internal growth assumptions; denotes a forward-looking non-GAAP financial measure that Valvoline is unable to reconcile without unreasonable effort as described in
Valvoline’s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com.
FY2018 Segment Adjusted EBITDA1 % of SalesQuick Lubes 28%
Core NA 18%International 15%
Core NA Core NA Core NA
Int’l Int’l Int’l
Quick Lubes Quick Lubes Quick Lubes
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Q1 Earnings Summary
10
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Reported Results
Adjusted(1) Results
11
First-Quarter Results Summary
(in millions, except per-share data) Q1
Operating income $87
Net income $53
Reported income per share $0.28
Cash flow from operating activities $85
1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.2 Future quarterly dividend declarations are subject to approval by the Board of Directors and may be adjusted as business needs or market conditions change.
(in millions, except per-share data) Q1
Adjusted1 operating income $87
Adjusted1 EBITDA $101
Adjusted1 EPS $0.27
Free cash flow1 $58
Segment outcomes mixed; overall results below expectations
Exceptional SSS growth and strong store additions
Branded volume in Core North America’s retail channel remains under pressure
Volume softness in emerging markets
Raised quarterly dividend2 42% to 10.6 cents per share
Announced broad-based restructuring program
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First-Quarter Financials
12
($ in millions, except per-share data)Preliminary and unaudited
P&L Results and Ratios 2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 42.0 43.8 (4) %Sales 557$ 545$ 2 %
Gross profit as a percent of sales 32.9 % 35.8 % (290) bpSG&A 105 107 (2) %Equity and other income 9 9 - %
Operating income 87$ 97$ (10) %Depreciation and amortization 14 11 27 %
Adjusted1 Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciationand amortization (EBITDA) 101$ 108$ (6) %
EBITDA 1 as a percent of sales 18.1 % 19.8 % (170) bp
Adjusted1 EPS 0.27$ 0.29$ (7) %
Fiscal First QuarterThree months ended Dec. 31,
Change Factors affecting year-over-year adjusted1 EBITDA
108 101
3
(14)
1 1
Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq
2
1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.
Revenue Recognition – primarily income statement reclassificationIn Q1 $15 million increase in sales and COGS; $2 million decrease in SG&A
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Corporate Items
• Net interest and other financing expense of $17 million in Q1, up $3 million YoY
• Effective tax rate of 26.4% in Q1; adjusted1 effective tax rate of 27.1%.
• Cash flow from operating activities of $85 million
- YoY increase due primarily to favorable working capital
• Capital expenditures totaled $27 million; Free cash flow1 generation of $58 million
• Total debt of ~$1.3 billion and net debt of ~$1.2 billion
• Dividends of $20 million
131 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.
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Objectives
• Reduce costs
• Simplify processes to create agility
• Optimize organizational structure
• Improve focus and clarity
Pre-tax annualized savings of $40 - $50 million
Expect full run-rate savings by end of fiscal 2020; modest savings in fiscal 2019
Expect charge of $12 - $17 million
14
Restructuring Program
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• Adjusted1 EBITDA of $470-$485 million
• Adjusted1 EPS of $1.31-$1.39• Raising SSS to 7-8%• Raising franchise store additions
to 60-70
15
Fiscal 2019 Guidance Update
UpdatedOutlook
Prior Outlook
Operating Segments
• Lubricant gallons growth 1-2% 2.5-3.5%
• Revenue growth 6-8% 7-9%
• New Quick Lube stores (excluding Valvoline acquired stores and franchise conversions)
• Company-owned No change 27-32
• Franchised 60-70 30-40
• VIOC same-store sales growth 7-8% 6-7%
• Adjusted1 EBITDA (excluding pension & OPEB income) $470-$485 million $480-$495 million
Corporate Items
• Adjusted1 effective tax rate No change 25-26%
• Diluted adjusted1 EPS $1.31-$1.39 $1.35-$1.43
• Capital expenditures No change $115-120 million
• Free cash flow2 No change $190-$210 million
1 Denotes a forward-looking non-GAAP financial measure that Valvoline is unable to reconcile without unreasonable effort as described in Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019 available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com.
2 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019.
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Q1 Earnings - Segments
16
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Quick Lubes
17
Segment Results Summary
Core North America International
(YoY change)Q1
SSS (system-wide) 9.8%
Sales 23%
Net new stores(company, franchised)
162
EBITDA1 $46 million, up $5 million
Exceptional store growth
Impressive SSS performance
(YoY change)Q1
Total Volume -9%
Sales -8%
Premium mix 49.8%, up 200 bps
EBITDA1 $35 million, down $12 million
(YoY change)Q1
Volume -3%
Volume with JVs -4%
Sales -3%
EBITDA1 $20 million, flat
Branded retail volume remains challenged
Significant unfavorable mix impact
Volume softness in Emerging Mkts
Flat profitability
1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.
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• Balanced contribution from transactions and average ticket
• Transactions driven by customer acquisition and retention programs
• Average ticket growth driven by pricing and premium mix
• Premium mix at 63.7% up 220 bps
18
Quick Lubes
SSS performance – Exceptional start to fiscal 2019
• 162 stores added to the system YoY; 59 added in Q1 (total units)
• 133 franchise stores added YoY; 50 in Q1
• 29 company stores added YoY; 9 in Q1
• Expecting strong additions excluding company acquisitions for full year 2019
• 27-32 newly-constructed company stores
• 60-70 new franchise units
• Continue to pursue supplemental M&A
Unit expansion – Impressive system-wide growth
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• New Valvoline customer• Expands presence into
Ontario• Strong volume performer
19
Quick Lubes – Oil Changers Inc.
Oil Changers Inc.
• Founded in 1996; currently 31 franchise locations in southern Ontario
• System performing well
• Improves opportunity to add both company and franchise stores
Great Canadian Oil ChangeOil Changers, Inc.
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Quick Lubes
20
($ in millions)Preliminary and unaudited
2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 6.5 5.7 14 %Sales 189$ 154$ 23 %Operating income 38$ 35$ 9 %
Depreciation and amortization 8 6 33 %EBITDA1 46$ 41$ 12 %
EBITDA as a percent of sales 24.3 % 26.6 % (230) bp
Three months ended Dec. 31,Change
Fiscal First Quarter Factors affecting year-over-year EBITDA1
41 46
62
(5)
02
Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq
1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.
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• Branded promoted prices crossed some consumer sensitivity points
• More brands promoted simultaneously
• Private label share continued to grow in conventional segment
21
Core North America
Retail Channel – Evolving DIY dynamics
• Volume in line YoY, excluding GCOC1
transfer to Quick Lubes
Installer Channel – Stabilizing
1 Great Canadian Oil Change (GCOC), a Core North America customer, was acquired by Valvoline during Q4 of fiscal 2018. Following the acquisition, the Company began reporting product sales to GCOC in the Quick Lubes segment.
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Core North America – Valvoline Implementing Actions
22
1. Working on implementing more aggressive promotional price points in the DIY retail channel
2. Strengthening consumer communication around the value of the Valvoline brand
3. Executing restructuring program to drive more stable results
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Core North America
23
($ in millions)Preliminary and unaudited
2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 21.7 23.8 (9) %Sales 232$ 251$ (8) %Operating income 31$ 43$ (28) %
Depreciation and amortization 4 4 - %EBITDA1 35$ 47$ (26) %
EBITDA as a percent of sales 15.1 % 18.7 % (360) bp
Three months ended Dec. 31,Change
Fiscal First Quarter Factors affecting year-over-year EBITDA1
4735
(3)(15)
5 1
(0)
Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq
1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.
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• Volume softness, especially in emerging markets
• Expect volume improvements going forward
24
International
Volume – Slow start to fiscal 2019; improvements expected
• Flat EBITDA on lower volume and sales driven by lower operating expenses
• FX headwinds expected to continue based on current rates
Profitability – Good performance; FX headwinds
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International
25
($ in millions)Preliminary and unaudited
2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 13.8 14.3 (3) %Sales 136$ 140$ (3) %Operating income 18$ 19$ (5) %
Depreciation and amortization 2 1 100 %EBITDA1 20$ 20$ - %
EBITDA as a percent of sales 14.7 % 14.3 % 40 bp
Three months ended Dec. 31,Change
Fiscal First Quarter Factors affecting year-over-year EBITDA1
20 20
0
(1)
1
(0)
0
Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq
1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.
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Appendix
26
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Key Items1 Affecting Income
($ in millions, except per-share data)Preliminary and unaudited
Fiscal 2019Pension & OPEB income -$ 2$ 2$ 0.01$
Total -$ 2$ 2$ 0.01$ Fiscal 2018
U.S. Tax Reform -$ -$ (75)$ (0.37)$ Pension & OPEB income -$ 10$ 7$ 0.03$ Separation-related costs (2)$ (2)$ (1)$ -$
Total (2)$ 8$ (69)$ (0.34)$
Pre-tax After-taxEarnings per Share
First-Quarter ImpactTotal
Operating Income
271 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.
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Historical Adjusted EBITDA Reconcilation
($ in millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net income $173 $196 $273 $304 $166
Income tax expense 91 101 148 186 166
Net Interest and other financing expense - - 9 42 63
Depreciation and amortization 37 38 38 42 54
EBITDA $301 $335 $468 $574 $449
Adjustments
Non-service pension and other postretirement plan income and re-measurements 52 37 (35) (138) -
Legacy and separation-related expenses, net - - 6 11 14
Acquisition and divestiture-related losses - 26 1 - 3
Impairment on Equity Investment - 14 - - -
Restructuring 6 - - - -
Adjusted EBITDA $359 $412 $440 $447 $466
Fiscal Year Ended September 30th
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