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Q1 Fiscal 2019 Investor Overview

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Page 1: Q1 Fiscal 2019 Investor Overviews21.q4cdn.com/457874623/files/doc_presentations/... · A Proven Track Record of Earnings Growth 5 $359 $412 $440 $447 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Adjusted

Q1 Fiscal 2019 Investor Overview

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Forward-Looking StatementsCertain statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical fact, including estimates, projections, statements related to Valvoline’s business plans and operating results are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Valvoline has identified some of these forward-looking statements with words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “estimates,” “is likely,” “predicts,” “projects,” “forecasts,” “may,” “will,” “should” and “intends” and the negative of these words or other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based on Valvoline’s current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions as of the date such statements are made, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risks and uncertainties are described in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in the “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” sections of Valvoline’s most recently filed periodic reports on Forms 10-K and Forms 10-Q, which are available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com/sec-filings or the SEC’s website at http://sec.gov. Valvoline assumes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements for any reason, even if new information becomes available in the future.

Regulation G: Adjusted ResultsThe information presented herein, regarding certain financial measures that do not conform to generally accepted accounting principles in theUnited States (U.S. GAAP), should not be construed as an alternative to the reported results determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Valvolinehas included this non-GAAP information to assist in understanding the operating performance of the company and its reportable segments. Thenon-GAAP information provided may not be consistent with the methodologies used by other companies. Information regarding Valvoline’sdefinition, calculation and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the tables attached to Valvoline’s most recent earnings pressrelease dated February 6, 2019, which is available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com/financial-reports/quarterly-reports.

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Click to edit Master title style

How We Create Value

3

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Our Strategy

4

Building Significant Competitive Advantage across Channels with Products, Services and Technology that Drive Customer Value

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A Proven Track Record of Earnings Growth

5

$359 $412

$440 $447

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Adjusted EBITDA

(Millions)Fiscal Year Ended September 30th

1. For a reconciliation of historical Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income, see appendix to this presentation. 2. System-wide same-store sales (SSS) growth. SSS growth determined on a fiscal year basis with new stores included after first full fiscal year of operation.3. Within branded lubricants.

$466

(1)

12 Consecutive Years of SSS

Growth in VIOC(2)

Volume Growth in International

Product Pricing and Raw Material

Cost Mgt.

Mix Shift Toward Premium

Products(3)

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53%

Capital Allocation Priorities

6

Sustain Core North America’s strong cash generation

Invest organically and inorganically to expand Quick Lubes and grow International

Return excess capital to shareholders viaDividends and Share Repurchases

% of Operating Cash Flow1 Spend2

FY16 – FY18

1

2

3 Target 45-60% of operating cash flow overtime3

1 FY16 and FY18 operating cash flow as reported; FY17 operating cash flow adjusted to exclude ~$400 million voluntary pension contribution.2 Includes capital expenditures, acquisitions, cash dividends and share repurchases, inclusive of borrowings; FY18 share repurchases impacted in part by cash tax benefit of voluntary pension contribution.3 Valvoline’s ability to achieve this target will be based on its level of liquidity, general business and market conditions and other factors, including alternative investment opportunities.

12%

46%

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Core North America Funds Growth Opportunities

7

Generated over $500MM in EBITDA-less-

CapEx in the last three fiscal years

Quick Lubes & Other High-

return projects

Strong EBITDA Margins

Low Capital Intensity

Core North America

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Capital Allocation in Action – Quick Lubes

Quick Lube Market OpportunityNew Unit EconomicsSame Store Sales Growth1

8

1 Fiscal years and fiscal quarters aligned with Valvoline fiscal periods; peer fiscal year data is the average of the fiscal quarters during that period, FYTD2018 represents the three fiscal quarters so far reported by all peers

2 Auto Aftermarket includes Advance Auto Parts, AutoZone, Boyd, Monro and O’Reilly’s; quarterly value is median of the peer group3 Advance Auto Parts, AutoZone and Monro quarterly SSS data placed in most analogous calendar quarter4 Mid Cap Branded CPG Peers include Church & Dwight, Central Garden and Pet, Edgewell Personal Care, Energizer, Sherwin Williams and Spectrum Brands;

quarterly value is median of the peer group

5 Central Garden and Pet organic growth number is as reported for the period, and excludes the impact of portfolio changes where determined by the company6 Energizer quarter ending 3/31 excludes the impact of the divestiture of ASIA7 Sherwin Williams SSS represents the US, Canada, and the Caribbean, from Valvoline FQ2 onward, prior to that it represented the US and Canada8 Sherwin Williams SSS in Valvoline's FQ4 2016, excludes change in revenue classification per company press release9 Store count data based on internal company estimates as of 9/30/2018.

7.5 7.4

8.3

~1

~2 ~2

~3

FY20

16

FY20

17

FY20

18

FY20

17

FYTD

2018

FY20

17

FYTD

2018

VIOC AutoAftermarket2,3

Mid CapBranded CPG4-8

(Organic Growth)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Store EBITDA Ramp

Avg. capital investment of $1.5M

~$350k U.S.

Jiffy Lube

Valvoline includingExpress Care

Express Oil Change

CanadaJiffy Lube

Valvoline includingExpress Care

Mr. Lube

Store count9(%)

Non-national brands

Non-national brands

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Creating Value by Driving Quick Lube Growth

9

FY16 FY23E2

Trend in Adjusted EBITDA1 Mix

FY18

Our most profitable business is the fastest growing

1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to the appendix to this presentation and Valvoline‘s earnings release dated November 5, 2018.2 Expected adjusted EBITDA mix based on internal growth assumptions; denotes a forward-looking non-GAAP financial measure that Valvoline is unable to reconcile without unreasonable effort as described in

Valvoline’s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com.

FY2018 Segment Adjusted EBITDA1 % of SalesQuick Lubes 28%

Core NA 18%International 15%

Core NA Core NA Core NA

Int’l Int’l Int’l

Quick Lubes Quick Lubes Quick Lubes

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Q1 Earnings Summary

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Reported Results

Adjusted(1) Results

11

First-Quarter Results Summary

(in millions, except per-share data) Q1

Operating income $87

Net income $53

Reported income per share $0.28

Cash flow from operating activities $85

1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.2 Future quarterly dividend declarations are subject to approval by the Board of Directors and may be adjusted as business needs or market conditions change.

(in millions, except per-share data) Q1

Adjusted1 operating income $87

Adjusted1 EBITDA $101

Adjusted1 EPS $0.27

Free cash flow1 $58

Segment outcomes mixed; overall results below expectations

Exceptional SSS growth and strong store additions

Branded volume in Core North America’s retail channel remains under pressure

Volume softness in emerging markets

Raised quarterly dividend2 42% to 10.6 cents per share

Announced broad-based restructuring program

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First-Quarter Financials

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($ in millions, except per-share data)Preliminary and unaudited

P&L Results and Ratios 2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 42.0 43.8 (4) %Sales 557$ 545$ 2 %

Gross profit as a percent of sales 32.9 % 35.8 % (290) bpSG&A 105 107 (2) %Equity and other income 9 9 - %

Operating income 87$ 97$ (10) %Depreciation and amortization 14 11 27 %

Adjusted1 Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciationand amortization (EBITDA) 101$ 108$ (6) %

EBITDA 1 as a percent of sales 18.1 % 19.8 % (170) bp

Adjusted1 EPS 0.27$ 0.29$ (7) %

Fiscal First QuarterThree months ended Dec. 31,

Change Factors affecting year-over-year adjusted1 EBITDA

108 101

3

(14)

1 1

Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq

2

1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.

Revenue Recognition – primarily income statement reclassificationIn Q1 $15 million increase in sales and COGS; $2 million decrease in SG&A

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Corporate Items

• Net interest and other financing expense of $17 million in Q1, up $3 million YoY

• Effective tax rate of 26.4% in Q1; adjusted1 effective tax rate of 27.1%.

• Cash flow from operating activities of $85 million

- YoY increase due primarily to favorable working capital

• Capital expenditures totaled $27 million; Free cash flow1 generation of $58 million

• Total debt of ~$1.3 billion and net debt of ~$1.2 billion

• Dividends of $20 million

131 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.

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Objectives

• Reduce costs

• Simplify processes to create agility

• Optimize organizational structure

• Improve focus and clarity

Pre-tax annualized savings of $40 - $50 million

Expect full run-rate savings by end of fiscal 2020; modest savings in fiscal 2019

Expect charge of $12 - $17 million

14

Restructuring Program

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• Adjusted1 EBITDA of $470-$485 million

• Adjusted1 EPS of $1.31-$1.39• Raising SSS to 7-8%• Raising franchise store additions

to 60-70

15

Fiscal 2019 Guidance Update

UpdatedOutlook

Prior Outlook

Operating Segments

• Lubricant gallons growth 1-2% 2.5-3.5%

• Revenue growth 6-8% 7-9%

• New Quick Lube stores (excluding Valvoline acquired stores and franchise conversions)

• Company-owned No change 27-32

• Franchised 60-70 30-40

• VIOC same-store sales growth 7-8% 6-7%

• Adjusted1 EBITDA (excluding pension & OPEB income) $470-$485 million $480-$495 million

Corporate Items

• Adjusted1 effective tax rate No change 25-26%

• Diluted adjusted1 EPS $1.31-$1.39 $1.35-$1.43

• Capital expenditures No change $115-120 million

• Free cash flow2 No change $190-$210 million

1 Denotes a forward-looking non-GAAP financial measure that Valvoline is unable to reconcile without unreasonable effort as described in Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019 available on Valvoline’s website at http://investors.valvoline.com.

2 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019.

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Q1 Earnings - Segments

16

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Quick Lubes

17

Segment Results Summary

Core North America International

(YoY change)Q1

SSS (system-wide) 9.8%

Sales 23%

Net new stores(company, franchised)

162

EBITDA1 $46 million, up $5 million

Exceptional store growth

Impressive SSS performance

(YoY change)Q1

Total Volume -9%

Sales -8%

Premium mix 49.8%, up 200 bps

EBITDA1 $35 million, down $12 million

(YoY change)Q1

Volume -3%

Volume with JVs -4%

Sales -3%

EBITDA1 $20 million, flat

Branded retail volume remains challenged

Significant unfavorable mix impact

Volume softness in Emerging Mkts

Flat profitability

1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.

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• Balanced contribution from transactions and average ticket

• Transactions driven by customer acquisition and retention programs

• Average ticket growth driven by pricing and premium mix

• Premium mix at 63.7% up 220 bps

18

Quick Lubes

SSS performance – Exceptional start to fiscal 2019

• 162 stores added to the system YoY; 59 added in Q1 (total units)

• 133 franchise stores added YoY; 50 in Q1

• 29 company stores added YoY; 9 in Q1

• Expecting strong additions excluding company acquisitions for full year 2019

• 27-32 newly-constructed company stores

• 60-70 new franchise units

• Continue to pursue supplemental M&A

Unit expansion – Impressive system-wide growth

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• New Valvoline customer• Expands presence into

Ontario• Strong volume performer

19

Quick Lubes – Oil Changers Inc.

Oil Changers Inc.

• Founded in 1996; currently 31 franchise locations in southern Ontario

• System performing well

• Improves opportunity to add both company and franchise stores

Great Canadian Oil ChangeOil Changers, Inc.

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Quick Lubes

20

($ in millions)Preliminary and unaudited

2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 6.5 5.7 14 %Sales 189$ 154$ 23 %Operating income 38$ 35$ 9 %

Depreciation and amortization 8 6 33 %EBITDA1 46$ 41$ 12 %

EBITDA as a percent of sales 24.3 % 26.6 % (230) bp

Three months ended Dec. 31,Change

Fiscal First Quarter Factors affecting year-over-year EBITDA1

41 46

62

(5)

02

Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq

1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.

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• Branded promoted prices crossed some consumer sensitivity points

• More brands promoted simultaneously

• Private label share continued to grow in conventional segment

21

Core North America

Retail Channel – Evolving DIY dynamics

• Volume in line YoY, excluding GCOC1

transfer to Quick Lubes

Installer Channel – Stabilizing

1 Great Canadian Oil Change (GCOC), a Core North America customer, was acquired by Valvoline during Q4 of fiscal 2018. Following the acquisition, the Company began reporting product sales to GCOC in the Quick Lubes segment.

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Core North America – Valvoline Implementing Actions

22

1. Working on implementing more aggressive promotional price points in the DIY retail channel

2. Strengthening consumer communication around the value of the Valvoline brand

3. Executing restructuring program to drive more stable results

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Core North America

23

($ in millions)Preliminary and unaudited

2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 21.7 23.8 (9) %Sales 232$ 251$ (8) %Operating income 31$ 43$ (28) %

Depreciation and amortization 4 4 - %EBITDA1 35$ 47$ (26) %

EBITDA as a percent of sales 15.1 % 18.7 % (360) bp

Three months ended Dec. 31,Change

Fiscal First Quarter Factors affecting year-over-year EBITDA1

4735

(3)(15)

5 1

(0)

Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq

1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.

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• Volume softness, especially in emerging markets

• Expect volume improvements going forward

24

International

Volume – Slow start to fiscal 2019; improvements expected

• Flat EBITDA on lower volume and sales driven by lower operating expenses

• FX headwinds expected to continue based on current rates

Profitability – Good performance; FX headwinds

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International

25

($ in millions)Preliminary and unaudited

2018 2017Lubricant gallons (in millions) 13.8 14.3 (3) %Sales 136$ 140$ (3) %Operating income 18$ 19$ (5) %

Depreciation and amortization 2 1 100 %EBITDA1 20$ 20$ - %

EBITDA as a percent of sales 14.7 % 14.3 % 40 bp

Three months ended Dec. 31,Change

Fiscal First Quarter Factors affecting year-over-year EBITDA1

20 20

0

(1)

1

(0)

0

Q1 2018 Vol/Mix Other2Margin SG&A Q1 2019Acq

1 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com. 2 Other includes revenue recognition and foreign exchange impacts as well as equity, royalty, and other income/expense.

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Click to edit Master title style

Appendix

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Key Items1 Affecting Income

($ in millions, except per-share data)Preliminary and unaudited

Fiscal 2019Pension & OPEB income -$ 2$ 2$ 0.01$

Total -$ 2$ 2$ 0.01$ Fiscal 2018

U.S. Tax Reform -$ -$ (75)$ (0.37)$ Pension & OPEB income -$ 10$ 7$ 0.03$ Separation-related costs (2)$ (2)$ (1)$ -$

Total (2)$ 8$ (69)$ (0.34)$

Pre-tax After-taxEarnings per Share

First-Quarter ImpactTotal

Operating Income

271 For reconciliation of adjusted amounts to amounts reported under GAAP, please refer to Valvoline‘s earnings release dated February 6, 2019, available on Valvoline's website at http://investors.valvoline.com.

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Historical Adjusted EBITDA Reconcilation

($ in millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net income $173 $196 $273 $304 $166

Income tax expense 91 101 148 186 166

Net Interest and other financing expense - - 9 42 63

Depreciation and amortization 37 38 38 42 54

EBITDA $301 $335 $468 $574 $449

Adjustments

Non-service pension and other postretirement plan income and re-measurements 52 37 (35) (138) -

Legacy and separation-related expenses, net - - 6 11 14

Acquisition and divestiture-related losses - 26 1 - 3

Impairment on Equity Investment - 14 - - -

Restructuring 6 - - - -

Adjusted EBITDA $359 $412 $440 $447 $466

Fiscal Year Ended September 30th

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