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PT PricewaterhouseCoopers FAS
In association withPT Paragon Property
4th Quarter 2006
TRENDS SUMMARYOffice: There is evidence that demand is increasing for both for
lease and strata title spaces. Demand for strata title spacesis driven by both users and investors.
Retail: Occupancies are beginning to decrease as increasingamounts of new for lease centre space is completed. Rentswill come under pressure as additional supply enters themarket.
Apartment: The for lease/serviced apartment occupancies are still belowideal levels. Occupancy of for lease strata units still remainsat very low levels with more units under development.
Hotel: Hotel results are improving but still a long way from 1997levels. 5-star hotel occupancies are still low, hoveringaround 50%, but new developments are underway.
overview economic
Inflation during 4Q06 was 2.44%, lower compared to10.08% in the same quarter last year. 4Q06monthly inflation was at 0.86%, 0.34% and 1.21% inOctober, November and December, respectively. Asof December, Year on Year inflation was 6.60% in2006 compared to 17.11% the previous year.
The quarterly average exchange rate wasRp9,134:US$1.00; weakening fromRp9,121:US$1.00 in 3Q06. The three month BankIndonesia certificate (SBI) rate fell to 8.10% on 7February 2007 from 9.50% on 8 November 2006and 11.36% on 9 August 2006. The JakartaComposite Index closed at 1,803 on 27 December2006, compared to 1,535 on 29 September 2006,and 1,163 on 29 December 2005.
During the period January – November 2006,Approved Domestic and Foreign Direct Investmentwas about Rp157.5 trillion and US$13.9 billion, anincrease of 244.5% and 18.8% respectively from thesame period last year.
During the same period, Realised Domestic andForeign Direct Investment was about Rp16.9 trillionand US$4.7 billion, a decrease of 37.1% and 45.8%respectively from the same period last year.
The value of exports and imports from January toDecember 2006 increased by 17.5% and 5.9%compared to the same period last year to US$100.7billion and US$61.1 billion respectively.
GDP growth decreased by 1.9% compared to theprevious quarter and increased by 6.1% comparedto the same quarter last year. Overall, 2006 GDPgrew by 5.5% compared to 2005.
During this quarter, the Indonesia Business Indexwas 107.43 compared to 108.72 in the previousquarter and is expected to be 108.79 next quarter(Index 100 = no changes compared to the previousquarter).
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2 Jakarta Property Trend - 4Q06 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Jakarta Property and Composite Indexes
020406080
100120140160180
03/27/199
7
12/30/1997
09/30/1998
06/30/1999
03/30/2000
12/22/20
00
09/28/20
01
6/28/2
002
03/31/200
3
12/30/200
3
09/30/2004
06/30/2005
03/29/2006
12/27/2006
JPI
2004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000JCI
Jakarta Property Index Jakarta Composite Index
US$/Rp Conversion Rate and YoY Inflation Rate
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1Q97
4Q97
3Q98
2Q99
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
1Q06
4Q06
Rp/1US$
-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
US$/Rp Exchange Rate Inflation
SupplyThere was no new supply completed during4Q06. Office stock remained at approximately4.4 million square metres.
Buildings currently under construction in theCBD include: Menara Karya, Plaza SudirmanTower 1 & 2, Sentral Senayan II, Menara Satrio,Grand Indonesia, Pacific Place and The East.
Demand / OccupancyOverall, occupancy of office buildings in Jakartadecreased during this quarter to 86.1%.Occupancy rates decreased to 86.8% in theCBD but increased to 84.3% in the secondaryarea. Total vacant space increased toapproximately 615,000 square metres.
Secondary area Grade B transacted gross rentsranged from Rp75,000–Rp85,000/m2/mth andGrade C from Rp65,000–Rp70,000.
Service charges (within gross rents) for the CBDranged from Rp30,000–Rp70,000/m2/mth and, forsecondary areas, Rp25,000–Rp60,000. Thebroad ranges are due, in part, to theinclusion/exclusion of tenant electricity charges.
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TrendsThere is evidence that demand is increasing forboth for lease and strata title spaces. Demandfor strata title spaces is driven by both users andinvestors.
office
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Occupancy rates for the various office grades inthe CBD were 81.3%, 87.9%, 85.9% and 86.4%for Grades A+, A, B and C, respectively. In thesecondary area, occupancy was 85.7% and77.4% in Grades B and C.
RentsMost CBD Grade A+ transacted gross rentsgenerally remained in the range of US$17.00 -US$19.00/m2/mth, mostly in US$ with floatingexchange rates. For other grades, mosttransactions were still in rupiah: Grade ARp130,000–Rp145,000/m2/mth; Grade BRp100,000–Rp125,000; and Grade C Rp80,000–Rp95,000.
Jakarta Property Trend - 4Q06PricewaterhouseCoopers
Leased Office Occupancy RatesCBD & Secondary Area 4Q97 - 4Q06
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4Q9
7
4Q9
8
4Q9
9
4Q0
0
4Q0
1
4Q0
2
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CBD A+ CBD A CBD B CBD C Sec B Sec C
Leased Office Gross Offering RentsCBD & Secondary Area 4Q97 - 4Q06
0
5
10
15
20
25
4Q97
4Q98
4Q99
4Q00
4Q01
4Q02
4Q03
4Q04
4Q05
4Q06
Re
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(US
$/m
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)
CBD A+ CBD A CBD B CBD C Sec B Sec C
SupplyThere was a new supply of about 192,000 m2
from the operation of Pondok Indah Square,Bellanova Country Mall, Lindeteves TradeCentre and Mega Glodok Kemayoran (strata titlekiosks), and about 33,000 m2 from Bellezza DeHeritage and Bellagio Boutique Mall (lease)during 4Q06. In this quarter, total Jakarta leaseand strata title stock increased to approximately1.53 million m2 and 1.19 million m2, respectively.Debotabek lease stock remained atapproximately 444,000 m2 and strata title stockincreased to 371,000 m2.
Subject to timely completion, new supply up to2008 is estimated at about 1.1 million m2. Apartial list of future supply includes: Mall ofIndonesia, Kota Casablanca, Grand Indonesiaand Pacific Place.
Demand / OccupancyJabodetabek shopping centre occupancy ratesdecreased to 92.1% in this quarter. Jakarta andDebotabek occupancies decreased to 92.1% and92.0%, respectively.
Occupancies were 97.4%, 89.4%, 86.4% and91.9% for Grades A+/A, B, C and D respectivelyin Jakarta.
Offering contract rents for typical floors remainedat US$50.00/m²/mth in Jakarta andUS$26.50/m²/mth in the Debotabek area. The4Q06 fixed exchange rates generally rangedbetween Rp9,000 (Grade A+) and Rp5,000(Grade C) across Jadebotabek. Offeringcontract service charges remained at the rangeof US$7.00 to US$14.50/m2/mth forJadebotabek. Strata title kiosk units and longlease prices generally range from Rp30million/m2 to Rp250 million/m2.
TrendsOccupancies are beginning to decrease asincreasing amounts of new for lease centrespace is completed. Rents will come underpressure as additional supply enters the market.
It appears that strata title kiosk developments arereaching saturation point as demand isweakening.
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RentOverall, offering contract rents, fixed exchangerates and effective rents remained the same inJakarta and Debotabek compared to theprevious quarter.
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Jakarta Property Trend - 4Q06 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Shopping Centre Occupancy Rates4Q97 - 4Q06
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
4Q97
4Q98
4Q99
4Q00
4Q01
4Q02
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Grade A+ Grade A Grade B Grade C
Shopping Centre US$ Offering Effective 'Typical Floor' Rent(excludes Ground Floor and Anchor Tenants)
4Q97 - 4Q06
0102030405060708090
4Q97
4Q98
4Q99
4Q00
4Q01
4Q02
4Q03
4Q04
4Q05
4Q06
Ren
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m2/m
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Grade A+ Grade A Grade B Grade C
SupplyThere was a new supply of approximately 76service apartment units from the operation ofThe Peak Beaufort Residence in the CBD; and1,230 strata title units from the operation ofSudirman Park Tower B in the CBD andMediterania Boulevard Residences in thesecondary area.
The total stock of apartments increased to about13,660 units in the CBD and 34,570 units in thesecondary area. Leased (non strata title) andserviced apartments account for about 5,640units (48% CBD and 52% secondary) and stratatitle approximately 42,590 units (26% CBD and74% secondary).
New supply up to 2009 is estimated at about44,000 units. A partial list of future supplyincludes: Shangri-la Residences, SetiabudiResidences, Pearl Garden, Marriot ExecutiveApartments, Hollywood Residences, OakwookPremier, Four Seasons Towers 3 & 4 andSenayan City.
Occupancy / Sold RateOverall occupancy of lease/serviced apartmentsof all grades decreased in the CBD andsecondary areas by 1.0% and 1.6%,respectively.
The average lease/serviced apartmentoccupancy was about 79.5% in the CBD and71.1% in secondary areas. In the strata market,81.7% of the CBD supply (current stock andprojects under construction/launched) and87.6% in secondary areas was stated bydevelopers as sold. The occupancy rate of thecurrent stock was 63% and 67%, respectively.
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Average 4Q06 transaction base rents for CBDUpper and Middle Grade lease apartments wereUS$14.60 and US$8.10 respectively and forserviced apartments were US$15.70 andUS$9.80 respectively. Average service chargeswere around US$3.10 and US$1.60 for leaseapartments and US$4.70 and US$3.80 forservice apartments. Average transaction pricesfor strata title apartments were US$1,820/m2 forUpper and effectively US$960/m2 for MiddleGrade apartments.
Rent / PricesOn average, rents for lease/serviced in the CBDand secondary areas remained the samecompared to the previous quarter. Strataapartment offering prices increased in the CBDand in the secondary areas by 0.7% and 1.0%,respectively.
Jakarta Property Trend - 4Q06PricewaterhouseCoopers
CBD Average Occupancy & Sold Rates2Q97 to 4Q06
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2Q
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4Q
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4Q
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4Q
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4Q
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4Q
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Serviced Lease Strata
CBD Average Base Rents2Q97 to 4Q06
0
10
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4Q00
4Q01
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US$
/m2/m
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Serviced Lease
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TrendsSignificant new strata supply under developmentwill most likely exceed investor demand.
The for lease/serviced apartment occupanciesare still below ideal levels. Occupancy of forlease strata units still remains at very low levelswith more units under development.
Jakarta Property Trend - 4Q006 PricewaterhouseCoopers
hotel
SupplyThere was no new supply during 4Q06. Jakartahotel supply totals 22,297 rooms, consisting of8,890 5-star, 8,152 4-star and 5,255 3-starrooms.
New hotels under development include: RitzCarlton Pacific Place and Sofitel hotel inSenayan City.
Debotabek hotel supply remains atapproximately 1,030 rooms, consisting of 3705-star, 490 4-star and 170 3-star rooms. Overall,Jadebotabek hotel supply was 23,327 rooms.
Demand / OccupancyOverall, occupancy fell by 4.1% to 58.9% fromthe previous quarter. The changes were -2.5%,-3.9% and -10.1% for 5-star, 4-star and 3-starhotels. The occupancies were 52.8%, 62.4%and 68.7%, respectively.
Compared to the same quarter last year, thechanges were 4.9%, 3.1% and 4.8% for 5-star,4-star and 3-star hotels, respectively. Overallsame quarter year on year occupancy increasedby 4.3%.
Room RatesThe overall rate increased from the previousquarter by 1.7% to US$52.70 per night. Thechanges were 0.5%, 2.2% and 2.6% for 5-star,4-star and 3-star hotels. US$ room rates wereUS$71.00, US$43.20 and US$32.20 per night,respectively.
Compared to the same quarter last year, roomrates changed by 9.0% for 5-star, 21.4% for4-star and 20.3% for 3-star hotels. Overall, roomrates increased by 14.0%.
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06Revenue Per Available RoomOverall RevPAR this quarter was US$31.20 pernight or about 4.9% lower than the previousquarter. Compared to the previous quarter,all-star hotel categories RevPAR decreased.The changes were -4.0%, -3.9% and -10.1% for5-star, 4-star and 3-star hotels. RevPAR wasUS$37.50, US$27.00 and US$22.30 per night,respectively.
Compared to the same quarter last year,RevPAR changed by 20.2%, 28.4% and 29.9%for each star-category and 23.4% overall.
PricewaterhouseCoopers Jakarta Property Trend - 4Q06
Jadebotabek Hotel Occupancy Rates4Q97 to 4Q06
20%
30%
40%
50%
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70%
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7
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5 Star 4 Star 3 Star Overall
Jadebotabek Hotel Average Room Rates4Q97 to 4Q06
020406080
100120140
4Q97
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US$
/nig
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5 Star 4 Star 3 Star Overall
hotel
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TrendsHotel results are improving but still a long wayfrom 1997 levels.
5-star hotel occupancies are still low, hoveringaround 50%, but new developments areunderway.
Jakarta Property Trend - 4Q06 PricewaterhouseCoopers
Jadebotabek Hotel RevPAR1Q99 to 4Q06
05
1015202530354045
1Q
99
2Q
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3Q
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4Q
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1Q
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2Q
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3Q
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US
$/n
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5-star 4-star 3-star Overall
Jakarta Property Trends
Mirza DiranWillie PrasetioPT PricewaterhouseCoopers FAS
In association withJay SmithPT Paragon Property
PricewaterhouseCoopersJl. HR. Rasuna Said Kav. X-7 No.6Jakarta 12940Tel: +62(21) 521 2901Fax: +62(21) 521 3926www.pwc.com/id
ABBREVIATIONS
PwC : PricewaterhouseCoopersCBD : Central Business DistrictJadebotabek : includes Jakarta, Depok, Bogor,
Tangerang and BekasiDebotabek : includes Depok, Bogor, Tangerang
and BekasiGDP : Gross Domestic ProductE : estimatedm2 : square metres/m2/mth : per square metre per months-g area : semi-gross areapa : per annum4Q06 : 4th Quarter 2006
(each quarter abbreviated similarly)s/c : service chargeUS$ : US dollarRp. : Rupiah
DEFINITIONS
GeneralCentral Business : bounded by Jl Sudirman, Jl RasunaDistrict Said and Jl Gatot Subroto (the
‘Golden Triangle’ of Jakarta)Secondary area : area outside the CBDet area : space occupied solely by tenant (or
available for the tenant’s sole use)Semi-gross area : net area plus proportion of common
spaceRents and service : are stated per m2 according to thecharge relevant basis of lease in each sector
(such as on s-g area for offices, seebelow)
SectorsOfficesGrade A+ : A high quality and well maintained
office building located in CBD area,generally more than 20,000m2
Grade A : A standard quality office building,generally more than 20,000 m2
Grade B : A medium quality office building,generally 6,000 –20,000 m2
Grade C : A low quality office building,generally less than 6,000 m2 andusually more than 20 years old
Retail (Shopping centres)Grade A+ : High specification with quality finishes,
located in prime CBD area, generallymore than 40,000 m2. Mainly upperclass retailers and internationaldepartment stores
Grade A : Modern specification with qualityfinishes located in CBD and secondaryarea, generally more than 40,000m2.Mainly middle to upper class retailersand international department stores
Grade B : Medium specification of generally morethan 20,000 m2. Mainly middle classlocal retailers and department stores
Grade C : Basic to medium quality buildinggenerally less than 20,000m2
Basis of lease : Retail units are let on a net area basis
HotelsStar Categorization: The 5, 4 and 3 categories used in our
survey are in accordance with theGovernment licenses awarded to eachindividual hotel
ApartmentUpper Grade : High specification building with larger
units (3BR>150 m2), and range of sportand leisure activities
Middle Grade : Medium specification building withsmaller units (3BR<150 m2), andstandard sports facilities
Basis of lease : Apartments are let on a net area basisApartment size : Average base rents and service chargesurveyed are derived from rentals of 3 bedroom
unitsSold Unit : A unit is considered ‘sold’ after a
deposit has been paid
This publication is provided as a general overview of market trends. Whilst the information contained is believed accurate at the time of printing, it may be subject to future changewithout notice. PricewaterhouseCoopers and PT Paragon Property accept no liability to any party for reliance on the contents of this publication. This document is the property of PwC
and no part of it may be copied or reproduced without our prior written permission.