public opinion landscape health care - mar 26
TRANSCRIPT
The Public Opinion Landscape:Health Care
March 26, 2012
2
SUMMARY
1. Two years since being signed into law, opinion on the health reform law remains divided
• Views on the health reform law remain strongly partisan
2. Most elements of the health reform law are viewed favorably with the exception of the individual mandate
3. Most Americans consider the individual mandate unconstitutional
• A substantial minority believes the law has been overturned by the Supreme Court
3
Views on Reform
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
40
44
41
35
45
40
44
40 41
50 48 4641
44 4643 44 43
51
44 43 44 43
40%
14 1410
1412 11
1518 18
9 8
13
1814
1215
17 16 1519
1719
1519%
46
41
48 50
43
49
4242 42
41 43 42 41 42 42 4239 41
3437
4137
4241%
201 0
201 1
201 2
Don’t know/RefusedUnfavorableFavorable
ACA signed into law on March 23, 2010
TWO YEARS OF CLOSELY DIVIDED OPINION ON ACAAs you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health
reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls4
A recent CBS News/New York Times poll shows 47 percent of Americans disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, with 36 percent indicating they support the law.
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 7872
6973
68
7569 68 69
73
6671
64
72
65 6460
65
52
62 64 62 64 66%
36 37
49 48
41 42
3437 37
34
4337
4135 33
3833
3632 34 33
30
40 40%
138
23 2116
21
1115
12 12 11 912
1720
16
24
1411 12
19
1216
12%
ACA signed into law on March 23, 2010 RepublicansIndependentsDemocrats
201 0
201 1
201 2
A LASTING PARTISAN GAP ON ACA
Percent who say they have a favorable opinion of the health reform law:
5
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls
6
8%
25%
32%
23%
4%
15%
34%
18%
15%
13%
6%
11%
60%
29%
6%
29%
REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION MARKEDLY MORE INTENSE THAN DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT
Total
Independents
Republicans
Democrats
As you may know, a new health reform bill was signed into law early last year. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, February 29 – March 5, 2012
Very Favorable Very UnfavorableSomewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable
Note: DK/REF answers not shown.
7
Have the things you’ve heard about this law recently been mainly (positive) or mainly (negative)?
VAST MAJORITY HAVE HEARD MOSTLY NEGATIVE THINGS ABOUT THE LAW
Note: No opinion answers not shown. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, March 7-10, 2012
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Mixed; 5%
Mainly nega-tive; 70%
Mainly posi-tive; 19%
8
MOST AMERICANS FEEL THEY UNDERSTAND THE REFORMS THAT WERE PASSED BUT ONLY SOMEWHAT WELL; A QUARTER ADMITS THEY LACK UNDERSTANDINGHow well do you feel you understand the healthcare reforms that were passed by Congress in March of 2010?
Source: AP-GfK Poll, February, 16-20, 2012
Extremely Well Not Well At AllVery Well Not Too Well
Apr-10
Feb-12
8%
10%
20%
18%
44%
44%
17%
12%
12%
15%
Somewhat Well
Note: “Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.
9
FEW HAVE FELT LAW’S EFFECTTHOSE WHO HAVE CITE INCREASED ACCESS AND COST
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
83%No
14%Yes3%
DK/REF
So far, would you say you and your family have personally benefitted from the health reform law, or not?
So far, would you say you and your family have been negatively affected by the health reform law, or not?
Most common benefit: Access to health care (39%) Most common negative: Cost (52%)
76%No
21%Yes
4%DK/REF
MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT LAW’S IMPACT ON THE COUNTRY
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
Note: “Depends” (vol.) and Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.
10
Do you think the country as a whole will be better off or worse off under the new health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference?
Better off Worse off Wont make much difference0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
38% 36%
18%
The country as a whole
11
Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, February 20-21, 2012
ONLY A QUARTER OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THE LAW WILL MAKE THEIR FAMILY’S HEALTHCARE SITUATION BETTER; VIEWS ARE HIGHLY PARTISAN
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
All Americans
3%
26%
40%
24%
25%
33%
43%
34%
68%
35%
12%
38%
Make Better Not Much Difference Make Worse
Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.
Now suppose all the provisions of the healthcare law go into effect in the next few years. In the long run, how do you think the healthcare law would affect your family’s healthcare situation? Would it make things better, not make much difference, or would it make things worse?
54%
49%
47%
44%
27%
26%
32%
38%
33%
40%
51%
50%
15%
12%
19%
16%
22%
24%
Allowed many young adults under age 26 to obtain health insurance coverage
Lowered prescription drug costs for seniors
Eliminated costs for preventive services such as blood pressure screenings for people with health insurance
Significantly increased the price of health insurance
Increased the federal budget deficit
Caused many employers to drop health insurance coverage for their employees
YES, health care law has done this
NO, health care law has not done this Don’t know/Refused
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 201212
MORE PERCEIVE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LAW THAN POSITIVE EFFECTS
As of today, do you think the health care law has or has not done each of the following?
13
Elements of the Law
MOST ELEMENTS OF LAW VIEWED FAVORABLY BY MAJORITY OF PUBLIC
Very favorable
Somewhat favorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Require easy-to-understand plan summaries 50% 29% 7% 11%Guaranteed issue 45 24 11 17Tax credits to small businesses 44 36 8 8Subsidy assistance to individuals 43 28 10 15No cost sharing for preventive services 42 27 15 13Health plan decision appeals 37 34 12 12Medicaid expansion 36 34 12 15Medical loss ratio 32 25 16 19Employer mandate/penalty for large employers 29 25 15 29Increase Medicare payroll tax on upper income 26 27 17 24Basic benefits package, defined by government 23 28 15 31Individual mandate/penalty 15 17 12 54
Response wording abbreviated. Don’t know/Refused answers not shown.
14
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
Next, I’m going to read you several elements of the health reform law. As I read each one, please tell me whether you feel very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable about it.
MOST POPULAR PROVISIONS AMONG LEAST WIDELY RECOGNIZED
80%
79%
71%
69%
57%
32%
49%
49%
51%
37%
35%
64%
Health plan decision appeals
Individual mandate/penalty
Medical loss ratio
Require easy-to-understand plan summaries
Tax credits to small businesses
No cost sharing for preventive services
Percent with a favorable view of provision
Percent who are aware provision is included in ACA
15
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
Percent who say they have a favorable opinion of each of the following and percent who say they are aware each is included in the health reform law:
16
AMERICANS OPPOSE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATEDo you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law...
…that would require every American to have health insurance, or pay money to the government as a penalty if they do not, unless the person is very poor?
Source: AP-GfK Poll, February 16-20, 2012
31%
59%
7%
Oppose
Favor Neither
34%
58%
6%
Oppose
Favor
Jan, 2011 Feb, 2012
Neither
Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.
17
BUT FAVOR THE EMPLOYER MANDATE
Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law...
…requiring most medium-size and large companies to offer health insurance to their employees or pay money to the government as a penalty if they don’t?
Source: AP-GfK Poll, February, 16-20, 2012
59%
32%
9%
Oppose
FavorNeither
60%
32%
6%
Oppose
Favor
Jan, 2011 Feb, 2012
Neither
Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.
18
Next Steps
19
PLURALITY OF AMERICANS THINK LAW MAY NEED SMALL TWEAKS BUT WANT TO SEE HOW IT WORKS; OVER A THIRD WANT IT REPEALED
Source: Bloomberg News Poll, March 8-11, 2012
Turning to the health care law passed last year, what is your opinion of the law? It should be repealed. It may need small modifications, but we should see how it works. It should be left alone.
Note: “Unsure” answers not shown.
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
37%
46%
11%
Should be repealedSee how it worksShould be left alone
20
Constitutionality
58%
28%
14%
It has been overturned by the Supreme Court and is no longer law
It is still the law of the
landDon’t know/
Refused
FOUR IN TEN ARE UNSURE WHETHER THE LAW HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THE SUPREME COURT OR MISTAKENLY BELIEVE IT HAS BEEN OVERTURNED
21
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
As far as you know, which comes closest to describing the current status of the health reform law that was passed in 2010?
22
Think healthcare law is a bad thing
Think healthcare law is a good thing
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
All Americans
4%
38%
6%
21%
37%
20%
94%
54%
94%
70%
56%
72%
Constitutional Unconstitutional
MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL
Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, February 20-21, 2012 Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.
As you may know, the Supreme Court will hear arguments next month concerning a requirement in the healthcare law that every American must buy health insurance or pay a fine. Regardless of whether you favor or oppose the law, do you think this requirement is constitutional or unconstitutional?
AS HEALTH CARE LAW’S TRIAL APPROACHES, PLURALITY OF AMERICANS SAY DITCH ENTIRE LAW
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, March 7-10, 201223
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments about the health care law later this month. Of these three options, which would you prefer to have the Supreme Court do: 1) uphold the entire law, 2) throw out the part of the law that requires individuals to have coverage and keep the rest of the law, or 3) throw out the entire law?
Uphold the law Throw out the mandate
Throw out the whole law
No opinion
26% 25%
42%
7%
24
IF SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST ACA, SIX IN TEN WANT LAWMAKERS TO KEEP WORKING ON PROPOSALS
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
All Americans
52%
57%
72%
60%
43%
35%
25%
34%
Focus on developing new proposals to improve Americans’ access to affordable health care
Stop talking about health care and focus on other national problems
If the Supreme Court rules that the health care law is unconstitutional, do you think lawmakers should focus on developing new proposals to improve Americans’ access to affordable health care, or should they stop talking about health care and focus on other national problems?
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
25
The Players
MAJORITY CONTINUE TO DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA’S HANDLING OF HEALTH CARE
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of March 24, 2012
Obama Job Approval – Health Care
As of March 24
President Obama signs health care reform bill into law on March 23, 2010
OPPOSE: 50%
FAVOR: 42%
27
And which party could do a better job of [DEALING WITH HEALTHCARE]?
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Both Equally (vol.)
Neither(vol.)
DK/Ref (vol.)
Mar 7-11, 2012 35% 49% 1% 7% 8%
Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 38% 49% 3% 4% 6%
Mar 30-Apr 3, 2011 40% 42% 6% 5% 7%
Oct 13-18, 2010 32% 39% 5% 11% 13%
Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 36% 45% 5% 7% 6%
DEMOCRATS SEEN AS BETTER ON HEALTHCARE THAN REPUBLICANS
Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press, March 7-11, 2012
28
GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex health care topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Susan Kannel ([email protected]) I Chris Gallup ([email protected])