public opinion landscape - state of the union
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
The Public’s Take – The State of the Union
January 28, 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
1. A Look Back at 2013……………………………………………………….…...2
2. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future………………………………………………………………………………….8
3. Perceptions of Obama & Congress …………………………….………14
4. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………....26
Slide
Year in Review: 2013
2013: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET
3
Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com
58.4 68 61.9 69 74.3 82.1 81 81.8 80.2 72.4 72 78.1
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
US Consumer Confidence
THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS
4
INDICATOR THEN January 2013
NOW December 2013
Unemployment Rate 7.9% 6.7%
Inflation Rate 1.7% 1.2%
Stock Market (DJIA) 13,412.60 16,576.66
Consumer Confidence Index 58.4 78.1
U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 231.198 234.582
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/
THE YEAR IN REVIEW – PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY
57% 64%
30% 30%
66% 61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Country on Wrong Track Economy is Getting Worse* Economy is Bad*
5
End of 2013
Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll
Beginning of 2013
Compared with other years, do you think that 2013 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States?
One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst
1% 6% 23% 44% 26%
THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA
52%
43%
49%
39% 35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy
6
Beginning of 2013 End of 2013
Source: NBC/WSJ survey
RATINGS DROP ACROSS THE BOARD IN 2013
7
Source: HuffPost Pollster
Government Shutdown in October was leading factor in these declines.
8
Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FEEL THE NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK
9
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014
The percentage of Americans saying
the nation is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50 in about
a decade
RIGHT DIRECTION 29.2%
WRONG TRACK 61.9%
10
During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
19% 19% 20% 25%
18% 18%
9%
28%
18% 21%
24%
42%
34%
24%
42% 46%
41% 45%
38% 32% 34%
33%
49% 47% 48%
38%
42% 46%
38% 33% 35% 27% 36%
42% 45%
38% 32% 31%
27%
17% 23%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Will stay the same
Will get worse
Will get better
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY JUMP AL L OVER THE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF 2013
GOVERNMENT ITSELF STILL CITED AS TOP U.S. PROBLEM
11
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
MAJORITIES EXPECT DEBT AND HEALTH CARE COSTS TO GET WORSE IN NEXT YEAR
12
Sources: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013
For each, please tell me if you expect things to be better in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months?
16%
20%
22%
33%
40%
41%
19%
37%
15%
41%
32%
32%
63%
41%
61%
25%
27%
22%
The size of the national debt
America's economic standing in theworld
Health care costs
Overall strength of the economy
Job growth
The housing market
Better About the Same Worse
BUSH CONTINUES TO BE BLAMED FOR COUNTRY’S CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
13
Sources: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013
Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems – Barack Obama or George W. Bush?
29% 34% 32%
36% 38%
54% 49%
54% 51% 50%
Jan-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-13
Obama Bush
14
Perceptions of Obama & Congress
15
OBAMA STARTS 2014 WITH A JOB APPROVAL RATING IN THE LOW 40’s
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014
APPROVE 42.1%
DISAPPROVE 52.9%
Obama Overall Job Approval
16
OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL DECLINED STEADILY THROUGHOUT 2013
Source: Gallup Poll Data
52% 51% 48% 49% 49%
47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 41% 41%
% Approve, based on monthly averages in Gallup Daily tracking
64% 60% 58%
43% 42%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Reagan(1986)
Clinton(1998)
Eisenhower(1958)
G.W. Bush(2006)
Obama(2014)
Nixon(1974)
17
OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL BELOW HIS PREDECESSOR HEADING INTO 6th YEAR
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of Second Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating Average
Jan 20 - 26
18
THE THREATENING THIRTIES
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Presidential Party Performance in Midterms When President Has Sub-40% Approval Rating
President Year Approval at midterm election*
Party midterm performance
Senate House
Truman 1946 33% -12 -55 Truman 1950 39% -6 -29
G.W. Bush 2006 38% -6 -30
Note: Approval rating result from last Gallup poll prior to midterm election.
OBAMA ON THE ISSUES
34% 35% 39% 41% 52%
60% 61% 58% 51%
41%
The federalbudget
Health care Theeconomy
Foreignpolicy
Terrorism
Approve Disapprove
19
Source: Quinnipiac University Survey, January 4-7, 2014
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling…?
NEW HEALTH CARE LAW IS TOP ISSUE IN SHAPING OPINION OF OBAMA
9%
14%
16%
23%
25%
58%
Issues with the NSA and privacy
Domestic issues like immigration and guns
Issues in Syria and Iran
The government shutdown
The economy
The new health care law
20
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013
Which, if any, of the following issues the president has had to deal with this year has been most important in shaping your opinion of Barack Obama?
Up to two responses accepted
Note: “None,” ‘Other,” and “not sure” answers not shown
65% OF AMERICANS DISSATISFIED WITH HOW GOVERNMENT SYSTEM WORKS
21
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014
Please say whether you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with our system of government and how well it works.
THEREFORE, CONGRESS BEGINS 2014 WITH 13% APPROVAL
22
Source: Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013
Annual average for 2013, 14%, was lowest in Gallup history
NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE
23
Do approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their job?
Do approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are doing their job?
Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 8-12, 2014
Approve 34%
Disapprove 60%
Unsure 6%
Approve 25%
Disapprove 71%
Unsure 5%
MOST THINK GRIDLOCK IN DC WILL AFFECT GROWTH; GOP SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY TO BE BLAMED
24
Do you think the political gridlock in Washington will or will not affect economic growth in the U.S. in the next year?
Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013
Will not affect economic
growth 17%
Will affect economic growth
78%
Not sure 5%
Approve 24%
Disapprove 71%
No opinion 4%
37% 43%
20%
PresidentObama and
Democrats inCongress
Republicansin Congress
Not sure
Who do you blame more for what’s gone wrong in Washington – President Obama and the Democrats in Congress or the Republicans in Congress?
HALF SAY AMERICA’S SYSTEM OF DEMOCRACY NEEDS EITHER “A LOT OF CHANGES” OR A COMPLETE OVERHAUL
25
Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013
All in all, how well or badly do you think the system of democracy in America works these days Would you say it…?
10%
41%
42%
5%
Needs to be completely changed
Needs a lot of changes
Works well but needs some changes
Works well and needs no changes
51%
Note: “Refused” answers not shown
26
Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward
ECONOMY, JOBS DOMINATE PUBLIC AGENDA
27
I'd like to ask you about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done.
Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014
ECONOMY, JOBS, TERRORISM RANK HIGH ACROSS PARTISAN GROUPS
28
Democrats Top Priority
Strengthening the nation’s economy
85%
Improving the job situation
81%
Improving the educational system
80%
Defending the country from future terrorist attacks
70%
Reducing health care costs
67%
Republicans Top Priority
Defending the country from future terrorist attacks
81%
Reducing the budget deficit
80%
Strengthening the nation’s economy
75%
Taking steps to make the Social Security system financially sound
72%
Improving the job situation
66%
Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014
BUT AMERICANS EXPRESS LITTLE HOPE THAT FEDERAL GOV’T WILL MAKE PROGRESS ON THE NATION’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS
29
Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013
How confident are you in the ability of the FEDERAL government to make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014?
30%
40%
23%
3% 1%
Not at allconfident
Not veryconfident
Moderatelyconfident
Very confident Extremelyconfident
70% Not at all / Not very confident
VERY FEW FEEL HEALTH CARE LAW SHOULD BE KEPT IN PLACE AS IS
30
Which comes closest to your view about the 2010 health care law? The law is working well and should be kept in place as is. There are some good things in the law, but some changes are needed to make it work better. OR, The law has so much wrong with it that it needs to be repealed entirely.
Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014
34%
56%
6%
Needs to be repealed
Changes are needed
Should be kept as is
Note: “DK/NA” answers not shown
VARIOUS POLLS SHOW SUPPORT FOR EXTENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
31
Source: Various Polls
January 20-23, 2014
ABC/WashPost: Congress is considering whether or not again to extend the period in which people who’ve lost their jobs can get unemployment benefits. (Supporters say this will help those who can't find work.) (Opponents say this adds too much to the federal budget deficit.) Do you think Congress should or should not approve another extension of unemployment benefits?
CBS News: Do you think the government should extend unemployment benefits for people who are currently out of work, or shouldn't it do that?
Pew: Thinking about some government policies, do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose a one year extension of federal unemployment benefits for people who have been out of work for a long time?
Should Should not
No opinion
60% 37% 3%
Should Should not
Depends/ DK
65% 29% 7% January 17-21, 2014
January 15-19, 2014
Favor [NET]
Oppose [NET] DK/REF
63% 34% 3%
STRONG SUPPORT FOR RAISING FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGE to $10.10
32
Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014
As you may know, the federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour. Do you favor or oppose raising the minimum wage to $10.10?
Favor 72% Oppose
26%
No opinion, 1%
Large majorities of Democrats and independents favor a hike in the minimum wage, while Republicans are split:
Favor Oppose Reps 48% 51% Dems 88% 10% Inds 75% 24%
MOST WANT SOME TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN DESPITE STRONG CRITICISM OF THE WAR
33
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013
30%
66%
41%
55%
Worth fighting Not worthfighting
Remove allU.S. forces
Remove most,keep some
On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Afghanistan has been worth fighting, or not?
In the year ahead, would you rather have the United States remove all U.S. forces from Afghanistan or remove most U.S. forces from Afghanistan but keep some there for training and anti-insurgency operations?
Note: “No opinion” answers not shown
AMERICANS DIVIDED ON ALLOWING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO BE GIVEN RIGHT TO LIVE AND WORK HERE LEGALLY
34
Do you think undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States should or should not be given the right to live and work here legally?
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, January 20-23, 2014
Should 49%
Should not 49%
No opinion, 3%
35
GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt ([email protected])