PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage

Dolf GielenJacek Podkanski

International Energy Agency, Paris

Clearwater Coal Conference, 17-21 April 2005

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Topics

Why CCS ?The ETP modelResultsConclusions

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Part 1: Why CCS ?

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

CCS pros

Fossil fuels will remain a dominant energy source in the next 50 years;

CCS can result in a drastic emissions reduction;

Very suited for large point sources;Realistic policy potential.

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Part 2: The ETP Model

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

The ETP model

Energy Technology Perspectives modelTechnology rich partial equilibrium

model15 world regions;From “well to wheel”;Detailed characterization of existing and

new energy technologies;Selects CCS or other technology options

from technology database, based on cost-effectiveness.

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Model input data

CO2 capture, transportation and storage is modelled separately;

Capture in electricity sector, manufacturing industry, fuels processing;

Storage: aquifers, EOR (incl. depleted oil fields), EGR (incl. depleted gas fields), ECBM. Oceanic storage is not considered;

Existing and new CCS technologies;Other options to mitigate CO2 emissions;CO2 incentives 10-25-50-100 USD/t CO2.

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Example GLO50: A gradual introduction of CO2 incentives

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[US

D/t

CO

2]

OECD and Transition Economies Developing countries

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Part 3: Results

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[Gt

CO

2/y

r]

GLO50 B C D

Capture potential 2050

5-19 Gt CO2/yr

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Key uncertainties

Key parametersPolicy ambition + scope (penalty level +

developing countries yes/no)Nuclear expansion potentialCCS technology progress

Less important parametersGDP growthRenewables characteristicsMarket structure

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

IGCC/Coal plays a key role

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

IGCC and steam cycles

Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO2 capture and storage

Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Coal use with CCS

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Decline in coal use w/o CCS

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

BASE GLO50 H2-optimal Biofuelsoptimal

Biofuelsrealism

2002 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050

[EJ

/yr]

Refinery products FT biomass FT natural gasFT coal Other biofuels Natural gasHydrogen Electricity

Transportation fuelsCoal derived fuels

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

CCS use for transportation fuels

0

2

4

6

8

10

BASE GLO50 H2-optimal

Biofuelsoptimal

Biofuelsrealism

CO

2 c

ap

ture

[G

t/y

r]

Other

FT biomass

H2 natural gas

H2 IGCC Coal"FutureGen"

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Hydrogen production

0

5

10

15

20

25

1650 USD/kW 2000 USD/kW 2250 USD/kW

Hyd

rog

en p

rod

uct

ion

[E

J/yr

]

Other

IGCC coal + CCS

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Part 4: Conclusions

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Conclusions

If CO2 emission mitigation is taken seriously, CCS will play an important role;

With CCS coal has a future in a CO2 constrained world;

This has important supply security benefits; Incentives of 10-50 $/t CO2 needed;Mainly an electricity sector option, but also

possibilities in transportation fuel production; IGCC with synfuel cogeneration looks

attractive, if investment cost <2000 USD/kW;Combine biomass co-combustion and CCS?

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Thank you

dolf.gielen@iea.org

December 2004www.iea.org