2

Green Bay

DATE HA OPPONENT 7

9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33

9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55

9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24

BYE

10/9/2016 14 H New York Giants 8.1

10/16/2016 7 H Dallas Cowboys 9.2

10/20/2016 4 H Chicago Bears 7.26

10/30/2016 10 A Atlanta Falcons 7.36

11/6/2016 7 H Indianapolis Colts 8.62

11/13/2016 7 A Tennessee Titans 6.19

11/20/2016 7 A Washington Redskins 7.09

11/28/2016 8 A Philadelphia Eagles 6.78

12/4/2016 6 H Houston Texans 8.5

12/11/2016 7 H Seattle Seahawks 10.59

12/18/2016 7 A Chicago Bears 7.26

12/24/2016 6 H Minnesota Vikings 9.55

1/1/2017 8 A Detroit Lions 7.24

# of Opponents with 8 or

more projected wins

Teams with 8 or more proj. wins

Three home games in a row

O/U projected wins for the

opponent

Division game

Three or more road games in a

row Days between games

Monday night

Thursday

game

NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE

3

WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line %

1 9/11/2016 H New England -5.5 0.679 5:30

2 9/18/2016 H Tampa Bay -9 0.789 1:05

3 9/25/2016 A Buffalo -2.5 0.512 10:00 AM

4 10/2/2016 H Los Angeles -7 0.754 1:25

5 10/6/2016 A San Francisco -6 0.733 5:25

6 10/17/2016 H NY Jets -4 0.668 5:30

7 10/23/2016 H Seattle -1 0.509 5:30

8 10/30/2016 A Carolina 3.5 0.402 1:25

10 11/13/2016 H San Francisco -10.5 0.792 2:25

11 11/20/2016 A Minnesota 1.5 0.476 11:00 AM

12 11/27/2016 A Atlanta -2.5 0.512 11:00 AM

13 12/4/2016 H Washington -6.5 0.634 2:25

14 12/11/2016 A Miami -3 0.583 11:00 AM

15 12/18/2016 H New Orleans -9 0.789 2:05

16 12/24/2016 A Seattle 3.5 0.402 2:25

17 1/1/2017 A Los Angeles 0.500 2:25

9.734

Projected lines from CG

Technologies Las Vegas

SU Win probability based

on past performance for

these lines 1983-2015

Start time for

team (EST)

PROJECTED LINE SAMPLE

Projected wins

For week 17 I gave each team a 50%

chance of winning their game see-

ing lines can be very different in

week 17 based on motivation the

last week of the season.

4

TEAM PROJ WINS

TOTAL OPP WINS

Schedule Rank

PROJ WINS BASED ON PRED LINES

Green Bay Packers 10.25 129.95 21 10.26

Detroit Lions 7.9 132.02 12 7.91

Minnesota Vikings 8.35 126.4 25 8.30

Chicago Bears 5.15 133.1 7 6.13

NFC NORTH SCHEDULE

Pythagorean Theorem

The Pythagorean theorem is a formula that calculates a team’s points scored and allowed into an “expected” winning percentage. Based on this formula for the 2016 sea-

son, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions over achieved by 1 and 1.3 wins respectively last year. The Chicago Bears under achieved by almost two wins last year. Based

on this there is a chance Detroit and GB may not reach the same win levels this year. Chicago, on the other hand, may exceed their three wins from last year. That doesn’t

mean they will eclipse their OU number. There still needs to be value on that number. Obviously offseason moves, injuries, etc will also play into this seasons wins and loss-

es.

In addition to under achieving by almost two wins last year, Chicago was also just 1-6 in close games. GB and Detroit, however, had luck on their side in close games, going 6-

3 and 8-5 respectively last year. If those records reverse themselves this year, Chicago may perform better and GB and Detroit not as well.

Pythagorean Theorem 2016 SU Margin

2016 Actual Record 2016 Adjusted Record Differ-ence

Close Games <=7 pts

Team W L T W L Wins Losses

Green Bay 10 6 0 9.0 7.0 1.0 6 3

Detroit 9 7 0 7.7 8.3 1.3 8 5

Minnesota 8 8 0 8.6 7.4 -0.6 2 4

Chicago 3 13 0 4.8 11.2 -1.8 1 6

The table to the left shows projected wins as set by the odds makers for 2017. The

expected win total is an average from the over and under lines for each team,

factoring in the extra juice typically applied to these lines. Chicago’s projected

over under win total is 5.15 wins. When factoring in all of their opponents project-

ed win totals, they add up to 133.1 wins and rank as the 7th hardest schedule.

Minnesota is just the opposite with the 25th toughest schedule based on project-

ed wins by the odds makers. In other words they have a very easy schedule.

Based on projected lines for all games we can develop a projected win pct based

on those lines. Chicago is projected to win 6.13 wins vs their 5.15 number. There

is value on the over for Chicago and they were just 1-6 in close games last year.

But, they play a tough schedule and are they good enough to win close games?

Update: The Lions team OU wins has been adjusted to 7.25 creating value on the over

at that number. I will update all numbers near the end of August and post on the web-

site.

5

Good

• 5-1 ats as a home dog LY. 6 games projected as home dog in 2017

• Face Minnesota at home off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest)

• Face GB off bye week and GB off Monday night game vs Detroit

• Face Cincinnati off Monday night game against arch rival Pittsburgh

Bad

• Travel to GB for Thursday night game

• Travel to Baltimore off Monday night game

• Face Carolina with Panthers off Thursday night game (extra 3 days rest for Car)

• Face Minnesota off Saturday game (extra day rest for Vikings)

Ugly

• Face 11 teams projected to win more than 8 games including first 7 games

Projected Wins

• Chicago projected win total is 5.15 but based on projected lines they are calculated to win 6.13

games.

2016 Results

Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS

1 A Houston 0 0 14 23 5.5 L L

2 H Philadelphia 1 0 14 29 -3 L L

3 A Dallas 1 1 17 31 6.5 L L

4 H Detroit 1 2 17 14 3.5 W W

5 A Indianapolis 1 3 23 29 4 L L

6 H Jacksonville 1 3 16 17 -2.5 L L

7 A Green Bay 3 2 10 26 7.5 L L

8 H Minnesota 5 1 20 10 5.5 W W

10 A Tampa Bay 3 5 10 36 -2.5 L L

11 A NY Giants 6 3 16 22 7 L W

12 H Tennessee 5 6 21 27 6.5 L W

13 H San Francisco 1 10 26 6 1 W W

14 A Detroit 8 4 17 20 7.5 L W

15 H Green Bay 7 6 27 30 4.5 L W

16 H Washington 7 6 21 41 3 L L

17 A Minnesota 7 8 10 38 6.5 L L

Chicago

WK DATE HA OPPONENT 11

1 9/10/2017 H Atlanta 9.55

2 9/17/2017 7 A Tampa Bay 8.2

3 9/24/2017 7 H Pittsburgh 10.65

4 9/28/2017 4 A Green Bay 10.25

5 10/9/2017 11 H Minnesota 8.35

6 10/15/2017 6 A Baltimore 8.7

7 10/22/2017 7 H Carolina 9.2

8 10/29/2017 7 A New Orleans 7.9

BYE

10 11/12/2017 14 H Green Bay 10.25

11 11/19/2017 7 H Detroit 7.9

12 11/26/2017 7 A Philadelphia 8.3

13 12/3/2017 7 H San Francisco 4.8

14 12/10/2017 7 A Cincinnati 8.35

15 12/16/2017 6 A Detroit 7.9

16 12/24/2017 8 H Cleveland 4.45

17 12/31/2017 7 A Minnesota 8.35

WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time

1 9/10/2017 H Atlanta 6 0.264 1pm

2 9/17/2017 A Tampa Bay 7 0.244 1pm

3 9/24/2017 H Pittsburgh 5.5 0.298 1pm

4 9/28/2017 A Green Bay 9.5 0.240 8:25pm

5 10/9/2017 H Minnesota 2 0.480 8:30pm

6 10/15/2017 A Baltimore 7 0.244 1pm

7 10/22/2017 H Carolina 1.5 0.497 1pm

8 10/29/2017 A New Orleans 6 0.329 1pm

10 11/12/2017 H Green Bay 6.5 0.228 1pm

11 11/19/2017 H Detroit 1 0.473 1pm

12 11/26/2017 A Philadelphia 6 0.329 1pm

13 12/3/2017 H San Francisco -4 0.663 1pm

14 12/10/2017 A Cincinnati 6.5 0.358 1pm

15 12/16/2017 A Detroit 6 0.329 4:30pm

16 12/24/2017 H Cleveland -4.5 0.654 1pm

17 12/31/2017 A Minnesota 0.500 1pm

6.13

6

Good

• Don’t play two away games in a row until Dec

• Face Pittsburgh off bye week and Steelers coming off Cincinnati game

• Face Minnesota at home on Thursday (Thanksgiving)

• Face Baltimore off Thursday game and Ravens off Monday night game

• Travel to Cincinnati with extra days rest off Saturday game

Bad

• 1-5 ats on the road against .500 or better teams last year. Projected to face 6 winning teams on the road this year

• Face Atlanta off Monday night road game against the NYG

• Travel to NO with Saints off their bye week

• Travel to GB with Packers off their bye week

• Face Cleveland with Browns off their bye week

• Face GB with Packers off Saturday game (extra days rest for GB)

Ugly

• Face 12 teams projected to win more than 8 games TY

Projected Wins

• Detroit’s projected win total is 7.90 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 7.91 games.

2016 Results

Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS

1 A Indianapolis 0 0 39 35 2.5 W W

2 H Tennessee 0 1 15 16 -6 L L

3 A Green Bay 1 1 27 34 6.5 L L

4 A Chicago 0 3 14 17 -3.5 L L

5 H Philadelphia 3 0 24 23 3.5 W W

6 H Los Angeles 3 2 31 28 -3 W T

7 H Washington 4 2 20 17 1 W W

8 A Houston 4 3 13 20 1 L L

9 A Minnesota 5 2 22 16 5.5 W W

11 H Jacksonville 2 7 26 19 -5.5 W W

12 H Minnesota 6 4 16 13 -1.5 W W

13 A New Orleans 5 6 28 13 6.5 W W

14 H Chicago 3 9 20 17 -7.5 W L

15 A New York Giants 9 4 6 17 4 L L

16 A Dallas 12 2 21 42 6.5 L L

17 H Green Bay 9 6 24 31 3.5 L L

18 A Seattle 10 5 6 26 8.5 L L

Detroit

WK DATE HA OPPONENT 12

1 9/10/2017 H Arizona 8.55

2 9/18/2017 8 A NY Giants 8.97

3 9/24/2017 6 H Atlanta 9.55

4 10/1/2017 7 A Minnesota 8.35

5 10/8/2017 7 H Carolina 9.2

6 10/15/2017 7 A New Orleans 7.9

7 BYE

8 10/29/2017 14 H Pittsburgh 10.65

11/6/2017 8 A Green Bay 10.25

10 11/12/2017 6 H Cleveland 4.45

11 11/19/2017 7 A Chicago 5.15

12 11/23/2017 4 H Minnesota 8.35

13 12/3/2017 10 A Baltimore 8.7

14 12/10/2017 7 A Tampa Bay 8.2

15 12/16/2017 6 H Chicago 5.15

16 12/24/2017 8 A Cincinnati 8.35

17 12/31/2017 7 H Green Bay 10.25

WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time

1 9/10/2017 H Arizona -3 0.594 1pm

2 9/18/2017 A NY Giants 3 0.405 8:30pm

3 9/24/2017 H Atlanta 1.5 0.497 1pm

4 10/1/2017 A Minnesota 3 0.405 1pm

5 10/8/2017 H Carolina -2 0.565 1pm

6 10/15/2017 A New Orleans 2.5 0.466 1pm

8 10/29/2017 H Pittsburgh 1.5 0.497 8:30pm

9 11/6/2017 A Green Bay 7.5 0.229 8:30pm

10 11/12/2017 H Cleveland -8.5 0.809 1pm

11 11/19/2017 A Chicago -1 0.527 1pm

12 11/23/2017 H Minnesota -2.5 0.534 12:30pm

13 12/3/2017 A Baltimore 3 0.405 1pm

14 12/10/2017 A Tampa Bay 3 0.405 1pm

15 12/16/2017 H Chicago -6 0.671 4:30pm

16 12/24/2017 A Cincinnati 3 0.405 1pm

17 12/31/2017 H Green Bay 0.500 1pm

7.91

7

Good

• Host Chicago on a Thursday night

• Travel to Dallas off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest)

• Travel to Minnesota with Vikings off Monday night game (day of extra rest)

• Host Detroit off bye week

• Travel to Detroit off Saturday game (extra days rest)

Bad

• Face 10 teams projected to win more than 8 games this year, including 5 of first 6 games

• Travel to Atlanta to open up new Falcons stadium in week two. Traveled to Minnesota in week two LY in same

exact spot.

• Face Cincinnati off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Cin)

• Travel to Chicago off Monday night game and Bears off their bye week

• Face Ravens off their bye week

• Travel to Pittsburgh with Steelers off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Pitt)

Projected Wins

• GB projected win total is 10.25 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 10.26 games.

2016 Results

Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS

1 A Jacksonville 0 0 27 23 -3.5 W W

2 A Minnesota 1 0 14 17 -2 L L

3 H Detroit 1 1 34 27 -6.5 W W

5 H NY Giants 2 2 23 16 -7 W T

6 H Dallas 4 1 16 30 -5 L L

7 H Chicago 1 5 26 10 -7.5 W W

8 A Atlanta 4 3 32 33 3 L W

9 H Indianapolis 3 5 26 31 -7.5 L L

10 A Tennessee 4 5 25 47 -3 L L

11 A Washington 5 3 24 42 3 L L

12 A Philadelphia 5 5 27 13 4 W W

13 H Houston 6 5 21 13 -7 W W

14 H Seattle 8 3 38 10 3 W W

15 A Chicago 3 10 30 27 -4.5 W L

16 H Minnesota 7 7 38 25 -6.5 W W

17 A Detroit 9 6 31 24 -3.5 W W

18 H NY Giants 11 5 38 13 -5 W W

19 A Dallas 13 3 34 31 5 W W

20 A Atlanta 12 5 21 44 6 L L

Green Bay

WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10

1 9/10/2017 H Seattle 10.5

2 9/17/2017 7 A Atlanta 9.55

3 9/24/2017 7 H Cincinnati 8.35

4 9/28/2017 4 H Chicago 5.15

5 10/8/2017 10 A Dallas 9.65

6 10/15/2017 7 A Minnesota 8.35

7 10/22/2017 7 H New Orleans 7.9

8 BYE

11/6/2017 15 H Detroit 7.9

10 11/12/2017 6 A Chicago 5.15

11 11/19/2017 7 H Baltimore 8.7

12 11/26/2017 7 A Pittsburgh 10.65

13 12/3/2017 7 H Tampa Bay 8.2

14 12/10/2017 7 A Cleveland 4.45

15 12/17/2017 7 A Carolina 9.2

16 12/23/2017 6 H Minnesota 8.35

17 12/31/2017 8 A Detroit 7.9

WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time

1 9/10/2017 H Seattle -3 0.594 4:25pm

2 9/17/2017 A Atlanta 2.5 0.466 8:30pm

3 9/24/2017 H Cincinnati -7 0.756 4:25pm

4 9/28/2017 H Chicago -9.5 0.760 8:25pm

5 10/8/2017 A Dallas 3 0.405 4:25pm

6 10/15/2017 A Minnesota -1.5 0.503 1pm

7 10/22/2017 H New Orleans -7.5 0.771 1pm

9 11/6/2017 H Detroit -7.5 0.771 8:30pm

10 11/12/2017 A Chicago -6.5 0.772 1pm

11 11/19/2017 H Baltimore -7 0.756 1pm

12 11/26/2017 A Pittsburgh 3 0.405 8:30pm

13 12/3/2017 H Tampa Bay -7 0.756 1pm

14 12/10/2017 A Cleveland -9.5 0.886 1pm

15 12/17/2017 A Carolina -2 0.520 1pm

16 12/23/2017 H Minnesota -6.5 0.642 8:30pm

17 12/31/2017 A Detroit 0.500 1pm

10.26

8

Good

• Only face 8 teams projected to win more than 8 games

• Travel to Washington off bye week

• Travel to Atlanta off Thursday game

• Finish against Chicago with an extra days rest off Saturday game

Bad

• Travel to Det, Atl and Car back to back to back

• Finish 4 of last 5 games against teams projected to win more than 8 games

• Travel to Pittsburgh off Monday night game in week two

• Travel to Chicago with Bears off Thursday game

• Host GB off Monday night game in Chicago

• Travel to Detroit on Thanksgiving

Projected Wins

• Minnesota’s projected win total is 8.35 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win only 8.30

games.

2016 Results

Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS

1 A Tennessee 0 0 25 16 -2.5 W W

2 H Green Bay 1 0 17 14 2 W W

3 A Carolina 1 1 22 10 6.5 W W

4 H New York Giants 2 1 24 10 -4 W W

5 H Houston 3 1 31 13 -6 W W

7 A Philadelphia 3 2 10 21 -3 L L

8 A Chicago 1 6 10 20 -5.5 L L

9 H Detroit 4 4 16 22 -5.5 L L

10 A Washington 4 3 20 26 2.5 L L

11 H Arizona 4 4 30 24 -2 W W

12 A Detroit 6 4 13 16 1.5 L L

13 H Dallas 10 1 15 17 3 L W

14 A Jacksonville 2 10 25 16 -3.5 W W

15 H Indianapolis 6 7 6 34 -5 L L

16 A Green Bay 8 6 25 38 6.5 L L

17 H Chicago 3 12 38 10 -6.5 W W

Minnesota

WK DATE HA OPPONENT 8

1 9/11/2017 H New Orleans 7.9

2 9/17/2017 6 A Pittsburgh 10.65

3 9/24/2017 7 H Tampa Bay 8.2

4 10/1/2017 7 H Detroit 7.9

5 10/9/2017 8 A Chicago 5.15

6 10/15/2017 6 H Green Bay 10.25

7 10/22/2017 7 H Baltimore 8.7

8 10/29/2017 7 A Cleveland 4.45

BYE

10 11/12/2017 14 A Washington 7.55

11 11/19/2017 7 H LA Rams 5.25

12 11/23/2017 4 A Detroit 7.9

13 12/3/2017 10 A Atlanta 9.55

14 12/10/2017 7 A Carolina 9.2

15 12/17/2017 7 H Cincinnati 8.35

16 12/23/2017 6 A Green Bay 10.25

17 12/31/2017 8 H Chicago 5.15

WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time

1 9/11/2017 H New Orleans -3 0.594 7:10pm

2 9/17/2017 A Pittsburgh 6 0.329 1pm

3 9/24/2017 H Tampa Bay -3 0.594 1pm

4 10/1/2017 H Detroit -3 0.594 1pm

5 10/9/2017 A Chicago -2 0.520 8:30pm

6 10/15/2017 H Green Bay 1.5 0.497 1pm

7 10/22/2017 H Baltimore -3.5 0.602 1pm

8 10/29/2017 A Cleveland -7 0.696 9:30am

10 11/12/2017 A Washington 1.5 0.466 1pm

11 11/19/2017 H LA Rams -7.5 0.771 1pm

12 11/23/2017 A Detroit 2.5 0.466 12:30pm

13 12/3/2017 A Atlanta 5.5 0.316 1pm

14 12/10/2017 A Carolina 3 0.405 1pm

15 12/17/2017 H Cincinnati -3 0.594 1pm

16 12/23/2017 A Green Bay 6.5 0.358 8:30pm

17 12/31/2017 H Chicago 0.500 1pm

8.30