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Page 1: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Progress of Investment ProjectsProgress of Investment Projects

Page 2: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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PQI project

Investment Cost : USD 378 million

Product Quality Improvement (PQI) : Investing in “Hydrocracking Unit”and other supporting units

Capacity : 25 KBD Hydrocracking Unit

Progress : Resume runing

Fuel OilVDUVDU

HCUHCUHydroHydro--cracking Unitcracking Unit

Vacuum Distillation UnitVacuum Distillation Unit

HPUHPUHydrogen PlantHydrogen Plant

Vacuum Gas Oil

Mogas

Hydrogen

Diesel

9%

24% 17%

7%

Simplify Block flow diagram

Note : ∑∑∑∑ Mogas= 25% ∑∑∑∑ Diesel = 52%

LPG

Mogas

IK/Jet

Diesel

Fuel Oil33%

35%

11%

18%

3%

Existing Plant

PQI Plant

Page 3: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Co-generation plant & NG

Invested by : PTT (BOT : Build, Operate and Transfer to BCP after 25 Yrs)

Project : Co-generation Power Plant

Capacity • Electricity : 19.7 MW • Steam : 90 Ton/Hour

Progress : 94% (Jul’09)

Expected Completion : Oct’09

Investment Cost : Baht 108 million

Project : Natural Gas (NG)

Progress : Completion

Page 4: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Bio diesel (B100) plant

Investment Cost : Baht 1,018 million

Bio Diesel (B100) : Produce B100

Capacity : 300,000 litters per day

Progress :88.1% (Jul’09)

Construction Period : Apr08 - Oct09

Page 5: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Oil SituationOil Situation

Page 6: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Oil Price Movement

•Geopolitical Tension

• Speculation

•Geopolitical Tension

• Iran Nuclear Project

• Hurricane (Kathrina & Rita)

+ OPEC's supply reduction begin to stabilize price

+ Non-OPEC oil supply continuously decline

+ Geo-political risk can boost prices

+ Under investment is reducing supply

- High stock building

- Weak demand due to economic recession

Page 7: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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World Oil Demand

• Oil demand continues to recover in Asia & ME.

• Global demand growth for 2010 is coming close to a consensus of 1.0 MBD.

MBD

MBD

Unit : %

2009 2010

@ Mar 2009

@ Jun2009

@ Mar 2009

@ Jun2009

World -1 .7 -2 .9 2 .3 2 .0

US -2 .4 -3 .0 2 .0 1 .8

Euro zone -2 .7 -4 .5 0 .9 0 .5

Japan -5 .3 -6 .8 1 .5 1 .0

OECD -3 .0 -4 .2 1 .5 1 .2

China 6 .5 7 .2 7 .5 7 .5

World Bank Global GDP Forecast

Stimulus package

Economic Indicator

Page 8: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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World Oil Supply: OPEC

• OPEC spare capacity is around 7 MBD with4 MBD idles from Saudi Arabia.

• OPEC-11 compliance rate remains around70% of it’s 4.2 MBD pledged supply cut sinceSep’08.

• 18 Aug 09: OPEC president Angola said thegroup will not need to cut production furtherin 2009 if oil prices remain at current levels$70 to $75 per barrel.

• 19 Aug 09: Kuwaiti Oil Minister said that oilprices at current levels were "not bad" andhe saw no need for OPEC to cut in ViennaMeeting on September 9.

RHS

LHS

Page 9: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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World Oil Supply: OPEC

OPEC Production vs. Quota

• Among OPEC's members, Saudi Arabiaaccounted for the biggest drop in production.

• The survey also found increased output fromIran, the second-largest OPEC producer, which ispumping above its target.

24.84 MBD

27.30 MBD

28.00 MBD

Page 10: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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World Oil Supply: Non-OPEC

•Non-OPEC oil supply continuously decline in Europe from 2008-2010.

Page 11: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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US inventories

• Overall inventories fundamentals are still weak.

• IEA August report, crude floating storage fell to 55 MB.

floating storage

Page 12: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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USD/Euro vs. WTI and Speculators Effect

Speculators Effect (Speculators Effect (NymexN ymex Crude Futures & Options)Crude Futures & Options)

• Crude rebounded on optimism about economic recovery and weak US dollar.

• Return of hedges & investment in commodities are taken into oil prices

• CFTC’s bid to curb speculation in energy trading will make U.S. Future /OTC market less attractive.

• New regulations could be in place by late Oct. or Nov.

CFTC: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

• Fed may keep low interest rate for a long period.

Page 13: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Seasonal Effect:

• Hurricane season will be less severe than last year but still have bullish impact.

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects 9 to 14 named storms will form within the Atlantic Basin over the next 6 months, including 4 to 7 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 will be intense.

Geo-political risk:

• Nigeria supply disruption prolongs.• North Korea nuclear tension.• Iran unrest continues but not yet impact oil industry.

Other Factors

Page 14: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

27Source : Analysis Team as of Jul. 28, 2009.

Oil Price Forecast Summary$/BBL

WTI is expected to average nearly73 $/BBL in 2010, as oil demandimproves.

ProjectedActual

Year

Page 15: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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+ Distillate pick up with economy and increasing crude price+ Distillate demand improves during winter season+ Less supplies due to refinery run cuts

- Higher products output from new ref- Middle Distillate stocks increasing to record high - China’s ban of fishery season (Jun-Aug), slashing Gasoil demand- Vietnam import will decline after new ref. run full- H1N1Flu: WHO raised H1N1 to level 6 the spread is more serious worldwide slow jet demand from airline

Product crack spread

Kero/Dubai

Page 16: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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+ Demand recovers with economic recovery.+ Less supplies due to refinery run cuts.

- Less Mogas end of driving season.- Higher products output from new ref.

+ Reduced FO supply from OPEC cuts.+ Tight supplies due to refinery run cuts.

- TEPCO will restart its 1,356 MW Nuclear power plant and will cut its fuel imports.- Lower demand for straight-run fuel oil in China due to high flat prices and as utilities switching to cheaper, cleaner LNG.

Product crack spread

Page 17: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Refinery GRM

+ Demand recovers with economy recovery.+ Less supplies due to refinery run cuts. + Distillate seasonal demand.+ Inventories continue to draw.

- Lower jet demand due to H1N1Flu.- Lower demand for FO due to TEPCO restart Nuclear power plant.

Focus in QFocus in Q44’’0909 Focus in Long termFocus in Long term

+ Demand recovers with economy recovery.+ Refinery project delay/ cancled.

- Refinery MEGA projects in ME to be complete in 2013.- Government policy support the investments into green energy and energy efficiency

Page 18: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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BCP’s Updating in BCP’s Updating in 20092009

Page 19: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Stock performance and key indicatorsShare price (1 Jan - 24 Aug 2009)

*EBITDA excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward

BCP = +105.16%SET = +45.62%Energy +40.09%

FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO

Current Ratio times 1.72

AR Day days 15.85

DSCR* (net CAPEX) times 5.23

D/E Ratio times 0.72

Debt to EBITDA* times 1.74

Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 20.77

BV (excl. Revalued) Baht 16.60

(As at 30 Jun 09)

VALUATION FIGURES

Share Price (6 month-high) Baht 15.70

Share Price (6 month-low) Baht 7.05

Share Price (6 month-average) Baht 10.85

Share Price (Close) Baht 14.50

Net EV M.Baht 42,961

EV to EBITDA** times 4.65

P/E** times 3.71

P/BV times 0.68

(As at 30 Jun 09)

*Share price referred “BCP”**EBITDA & earning excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward

PROFIT RETURN RATIO

Net Profit Margin % 8.84

Earning per Share Baht 3.80

Return on Equity-ROE % 19.81

ROE (excl. Inventory & Revalued) % 20.05

Return on Assets-ROA % 9.01

ROA (excl. Inventory & Revalued) % 7.89

(For 1H09)

Page 20: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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Bangchak well-equipped

• The LATEST Hydro-cracking technology from UOP, global acceptance in terms of proven production technology, provides better yield production from lower pressure operating condition.

• Competitive efficiency by equipping with Co-generation power plant and Natural gas (as Plant fuel), yet more environmental friendly.

• Capability of producing Diesel EURO IV captures government’s incentive, and even EURO V for fulfill niche markets.

• Ready for Gasoline EURO IV Top-up , comparatively small investment and time needed, allows early Incentive capturing.

• High flexibility configurations , 2 trains of crude distillation unit (CDU), enables to capture any opportunities via crude optimization or product segregation.

• Sitting in the heart of demand earns logistics edges and connects to several major distribution channels.

• Nationwide-established retail marketing network, especially COOP one , gives more reliability of maximizing the domestic sale.

• Capturing PTT Group synergy opportunities , such as 100% feedstock supply and 30% product off-take agreements from PTT and Oil Integrated Supply Chain Management.

• Wealthy financial status , ready to acquire any new opportunities

Page 21: Progress of Investment Projects - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20090827_BCPAnalyst_2… · World Bank Global GDP Forecast Stimulus package Economic Indicator

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• Our Fuel oil (premium grade - very low sulfur), is still required in the market.

Another challenging year for refining business; however, BCP strongly believes, by all measures, we will be able to fight those threats.

• Considering an expansion of foreign limits

• Commit to increase shareholders’ value

Financial Readiness & Market Capitalization Enhancement, towards Future Prosperity

• Potential SET50 listed, more open to financial derivatives

• Capitalizing our Refinery’s Flexibility, that enhance capabilities of crude selection and optimization i.e. running parallel mode.

• Extensive and Intensive hedging activities

• Comply to IFRS standard

Operational Excellence on Flexibility and Differentiate Turns the Cloud to Sunshine

READY for future challenges!!