pricing and efficiency in competitive markets trading in the ‘pit market’ dr. nikos nikiforakis...
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Pricing and Efficiency in Competitive Markets
Trading in the ‘Pit Market’Dr. Nikos NikiforakisThe University of Melbourne
Overview Purpose of this talk:
1. Use experiments and experimental results as a vehicle for discussion
2. Explain what we mean by ‘markets’3. Derive and explain theoretical
predictions of market outcomes and desirability of competitive markets
4. Discuss (briefly) the importance of trading institutions
5. Ultimately, goal is to show the complementary role of economic theory and experiments
What is a market? “A place or institution in which buyers
and sellers of a good or asset meet”. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
Markets facilitate trade Bring buyers and sellers together Aggregation of information Help traders strike agreements
Theoretical framework Optimization principle – people try to
achieve the best deal they can.
Units are homogeneous.
Equilibrium – the price(s) where neither buyers nor sellers have an incentive to change their behaviour.
Demand side (buyers)
value #
53 2
48 2
43 2
38 2
33 2
28 2
Demand side (buyers)valu
e#
53 2
48 2
43 2
38 2
33 2
28 2
Supply side (sellers)
cost #
39 2
34 2
29 2
24 2
19 2
14 2
Supply side (sellers)cost #
39 2
34 2
29 2
24 2
19 2
14 2
Market
Market
Market
Consumer surplus
Producer surplus
Market predictions Let p* be the price where supply and demand
curves cross.
If p>p* => excess supply will tend to lower prices.
If p<p* => excess demand will tend to raise prices.
If p=p* there is no force to change the price.
The market price (p*) determines the quantity to be traded (q*)
About experiment (1)
Variant of first recorded experiment in economics (Chamberlin, 1948)
Chamberlin found that market predictions don’t work!
I “predict” that the same will apply in our case (reasons will be explained).
Behaviour in experiment (1)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6
Period
Price
Behaviour in experiment (1)
About experiment (2) Variant of experiment by Smith
(1962) – Nobel laureate 2002.
Smith argued that Chamberlin’s experiment was too decentralized unlike real markets.
Experiment (1) was even more decentralized. In fact it was hardly a market.
About experiment (2)
Smith (1962) found that the predictions work remarkably well in a centralized trading institution (double-auction).
Experiment (2) was less centralized than Smith’s, but it should still have worked alright. Let’s see…
About experiment (2)
About experiment (2)
About experiment (2)
Behaviour in experiment (2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Period
Price
Behaviour in experiment (2)
Summary of what we learned Economic theory can help us predict
market outcomes. Creation of markets can lead to gains
from trade, lower prices, increases in efficiency.
Competitive markets maximise efficiency.
Competitive markets work under very “disadvantageous” conditions
Few buyers and sellers (theory assumes that many more would be required)
Minimal informational requirements (i.e. each person only needs knows his/her value/cost)
Question 1
Would our results change if instead of both buyers and sellers shouting prices we had only sellers announcing prices?
Would theoretical predictions change? Would behavior change?
Question 2
Why do you think we decided to pay you for your performance in only one of the experiments?
Question 3
The optimization principle assumes that you will try to strike the best deal possible. That is, you would prefer a deal with a profit of $1 to no deal.
Would you accept this deal if you knew the other person was making a profit of $10?
How would this change the results?
Further readingMicroeconomics:Varian, Hal. (1999) Intermediate Microeconomics
– A Modern Approach, Norton & Co, New York.
Experimental Economics & InstitutionsKagel, J. and Roth, A. (1995) The Handbook of
Experimental Economics, Princeton Univ. Press, New Jersey.
Davis, D. and Holt, C. (1993) Experimental Economics, Princeton Univ. Press, New Jersey.
Holt, Charles (1995) Industrial Organization: A Survey of Laboratory Research, in The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Princeton Univ. Press, New Jersey. (available on-line)