presented by: mainedothntb morris communications september 16, 2009

Presented by: Presented by:

MaineDOTMaineDOT

HNTBHNTB

Morris Communications Morris Communications

September 16, 2009September 16, 2009

AgendaIntroductions and Opening Comments

Nathan Moulton, Project Manager, MaineDOT State Rail Plan Presentation

The Role and Challenges of the TAC, Carol Morris, Morris Communications

Project Overview, Ray Tomczak, HNTBRail System Inventory, Dennis Coffey, HNTB

Breakout Groups

Why Are You Here? Your input on the TAC is key to identifying:Issues and trends that affect the quality of life and

business conditions in the stateRail and multi-modal connection needsBetter ways to collaborateYour opinion on statewide and regional rail strategiesAssist MaineDOT in prioritizing rail investment in Maine

MaineDOT and RailDeveloped Rail and Port investment plan to start needs

identification/funding frameworkWilling to put capital $$’s into infrastructure

rehabilitation and maintaining rail ROWsWilling to provide operations subsidy for passenger rail Not willing to subsidize freight rail operation and

maintenanceActively support public-private partnerships such as IRAPDeveloping State Rail Plan to help shape future and allow

us to qualify for federal rail funding

What We Can Agree On Rail supports the State’s economy

Provides mobility for people and goodsSupports business/industry/jobs

Rails knits communities togetherRail can reduce highway congestionRail is good for the environment

Reduces energy use and harmful emissionsRail is a vital part of a State’s multimodal transportation

network

Our Challenges Rail is important to Maine’s future, but funding for

infrastructure and passenger operations is scarceChanges in Maine’s economy make it harder to predict

future needsWe need to support rail, but can’t do everything at onceInformed, long-term planning and prioritization is keyThe people in this room have the knowledge to make a

positive impact on the future of rail in Maine

Public Outreach Carol Morris, Facilitator

Public Outreach BenefitsSolicit feedback from key stakeholder groups without

which the study cannot be successfulEncourage the public to provide comment and thereby

improve the end result Key is encouraging productive comment - time is at a

premium

Plan OutreachPublic Meetings: September/December Technical Advisory Committee Meetings:

September/NovemberIndividual Stakeholder Meetings/SurveysPress ReleasesMeeting Summaries: to be emailed to TAC and interested

parties and posted on web siteProject Website is www.maine.gov/modot/railplan - will

be used for additional public input

TAC Meetings Two meetings scheduled

September 16, 2009: to review findings to date and - through discussion - identify needs and priorities

Mid-November 2009: to review draft Plan recommendations prior to the December Public Meeting

Public Meetings Two rounds of meetings

September 28 and 29: to talk with public on challenges, issues and prioritization criteria

Early December 2009: to review and comment on draft Plan recommendations

Two locations Bangor Motor Inn: September 28University of Southern Maine/Glickman Library: September

29

Breakout Groups (1:50-3:50 pm)TAC members break out into three groupsEach TAC member can choose two questions to discuss1:50 - 2:30: Session 1 breakouts2:35 - 2:50: Five-minute summaries to full group on

discussion outcomes2:50 - 3:30: Session 2 breakouts3:35 - 3:50: Five-minute summaries to full group on

discussion outcomes

Project Overview Raymond Tomczak, Project Manager, HNTB

Purpose of State Rail PlanScheduleInvestment CriteriaEconomic, Employment and Transportation Trends

Why A State Rail Plan? Meet current and future system demandsEstablish a vision to guide future investment Provide a basis for Federal and State investment in rail

Requirement of Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act (PRIIA) of 2008

Submission to USDOT every 5 yearsMaineDOT Critical Rail Program

Ensure we prioritize investments to achieve maximum public benefit

Study Purpose / Schedule

Draft Investment Criteria Enhance freight and passenger rail service that provides

dual transportation system benefitService key manufacturing industriesProvide a net reduction in overall greenhouse gas

emissions from the transportation sectorHelp facilitate the shift of rail-appropriate freight from

road to railPromote the leveraging of private or other funds for

every state dollar invested

Economic TrendsGrowth Rates in Key Maine Economic Indicators

Source: Moody’s/economy.com, August 2009

Employment ForecastMaine Employment Growth Rates


Highest Growth Industries - MEEmployment Group

Growth Rate - 2010 to 2020

Education and Health Services 2.31% Local Services 2.24% Leisure and Hospitality 2.22% Professional and Business Services 1.92% Business-Related Services 1.58% Housing Related 1.47% Financial Activities 1.36% IT-Using Industries 1.35% Office-using industries 1.28% High-tech 1.26% State Government 1.25% Private Household Workers 1.23% Tourism and Entertainment Services 1.07% Universities 1.03%


Mostly Service Related

But Will Require Goods

Movement

Industry 2000-10 2010-20 2000-10 2010-20 Farms 1.93% 4.40% -0.83% -0.64% Fishing, Hunting, Etc. -1.01% 4.26% -1.41% 0.00% Chemical, Energy, Plastic, & Rubber Manufacturing 1.76% 4.17% -0.88% -0.88% Electronic & Electrical Manufacturing 3.72% 2.56% -9.86% -1.24% Manufacturing, Durable Goods 2.63% 2.53% -3.74% -0.10% Heavy Manufacturing 0.18% 2.26% -3.84% -0.01% Manufacturing, Non-Durable Goods -1.14% 2.15% -4.59% -0.14% Furniture & Misc. Manufacturing 0.28% 2.02% -3.28% -0.37% Metals & Mining Based Manufacturing 2.36% 1.89% -0.67% -0.23% Textile, Fiber, & Printing Manufacturing -2.34% 1.67% -6.85% 0.06% Natural Resources and Mining 0.23% -0.43% -2.39% 0.09%

GDP Employment

Rail-Dependent Industries - ME


Peak-Period Congestion on National Highway System: 2035

Source: USDOT, FHWA, Office of Freight Management and Operations, Freight Analysis Framework, version 2.2, 2007.

Train Volumes in 2035 Compared to Current Capacity

Rail System Inventory Dennis Coffey, HNTB

Historical TrendsCurrent ConditionsFuture Needs

Rail Mileage History

Source: Americans-Rail.com

Freight Rail1,154 active route miles~100 public ownership~1054 private ownershipNo Class 1 Railroads

3 Class II Railroads

4 Class III Railroads

Rail terminals and intermodal facilitiesPortlandAuburnWaterville

90,700 carloads in 2007

40th State in Rail Miles Nationwide

Freight Rail Status 1,154 miles active

~230 miles inactive with no service, but track exist

~85 miles track removed,

interim trail use

~300 miles State owned railway

Maine Is Not So Unique With respect to freight rail ownership! At least 20 other States own rail lines over which freight

service is largely operated by private entities Alaska – ARC owner/operator 544 miles (unique case)Georgia – approx. 486 miles New Hampshire – largest owner of NH rail (~201 miles) North Carolina – NCRR, privately run company owned by

NC leased 317 miles to NSOklahoma – approx. 800 miles South Dakota – approx. 301 miles Vermont – approx. 305 miles

Maine approx. 100 miles

Variables for Shipping Via Rail Is it cost-effective for my business? What are the service levels?

Is it a time critical commodity?Is service available and of interest to the railroad?

What is the weight and distance being moved? Direct rail or intermodal?Can the destination accommodate rail?Where do I start?

Share of Total Freight Shipments by Mode and Tonnage (2007): United States and Maine

Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)

Share of Total Freight Shipments by Mode and Value (2007): United States and Maine


Maine Freight Shipments in Thousands of Tons by Direction (2007): All Modes


Maine Rail Shipments by Direction in Thousands of Tons (2007)


Top Ten Rail Commodities in Thousands of Tons (2007)

Commodity Tons (000s) % of totalNewsprint/paper 2,220 41%Wood prods. 966 18%Nonmetallic minerals 664 12%Coal 427 7.8%Coal-n.e.c. 336 6.1%Basic chemicals 228 4.2%Chemical prods. 197 3.6%Gravel 85 1.6%Plastics/rubber 75 1.4%Paper articles 73 1.3%


60% Pulp & Paper

Top Ten Rail Commodities in Millions of Dollars (2007)

Commodity Mil Dollars % of totalNewsprint/paper 1,540 55%Wood prods. 637 23%Chemical prods. 163 5.8%Plastics/rubber 139 4.9%Coal-n.e.c. 76 2.7%Electronics 48 1.7%Paper articles 45 1.6%Basic chemicals 43 1.5%Nonmetallic minerals 36 1.3%Motorized vehicles 34 1.2%


80% Pulp & Paper

Maine Paper Industry

Mill Locations

2006 Production NumbersBucksport – International Paper

• 4,700 tons per day (235 TPD)

Skowhegan – Sappi• 4,000 tons per day (200 TPD)

Rumford – Mead Westvaco• 2,800 tons per day (140 TPD)

Jay – International & Wausau Paper• 1,800 tons per day (90 TPD)

Woodland – Domtar• 1,460 tons per day (73 TPD)

Madawaska – Fraser Papers Inc• 1,300 tons of paper per day (65 TPD)

Lincoln – Lincoln Paper• 760 tons per day (38 TPD)

Madison – Madison Paper• 750 tons per day (38 TPD)

Millinocket – Katahdin Paper• 500 tons of paper per day (25 TPD)

High-Volume Concentration

Economic Factors Affecting Maine Pulp and Paper IndustryDepends on US national growth and relative cost of

operating/production in Maine relative to other US and international producers

US markets and demand are a function of:Publishing industry outputAdvertising volumes and salesUS personal consumption patterns

Limited growth opportunities for domestic pulp/paper demandMost foreseeable growth in exportsPorts are the key to participation in export-oriented markets

Pulp and Paper Trends Short-term trends support continued operations of

specialty paper producersKey specialty mills will produce at current levelsOlder tissue/print operations sold for tax purposes may be phased out

either temporarily or permanently

Statewide forecasts for employment in pulp/paper industry expected to continue to decline over next 25 years (ME state forecast/economy.com)

Long-term output growth in pulp/paper industry likely to remain near 2008 levelsForecasts differ based on expected growth of export markets

Why Should We Care? If rail service did not exist for the paper industry in Maine

this would amount to an additional 866 outbound loaded trucks per day.

Since every load starts with an empty – there would need to be an additional 866 inbound trucks per day to carry this freight.

Do these trucks exist?What would be the resulting highway impact? Who will absorb the additional maintenance costs?

What If No Action Is Taken?Negative effects on Maine could include:

Pulp and paper industry less competitive due to increased transportation costs

Lower profits / loss of market options for rail shippers Lost economic development opportunities Loss of local tax base Potential increase in highway accidents, congestion, air

pollution and energy dependence on oil Once rail service is gone it’s difficult to replace!

Freight Rail IssuesHeavy reliance on paper & pulp industryInsufficient rail cars & service to accommodate needsSystem abandonments and state ownership Weight and vertical constraintsJunction constraints (Danville / Northern Maine)Lack of private and public capital to maintain and

operate current system and future improvements

Rail Industry Price Trends

% Change vs. 1 month ago 6 mos. ago 1 yr. ago

Rail freight 0.9 -1.9 -8.1

Intermodal 0.6 -0.4 -17.9

Carload 1.0 -2.1 -7.0

Source: Logistics Mgt

Declining prices indicate carriers effort to compete with falling truck prices and an effort to increase market share in a declining economy

Freight Rail OpportunitiesRail-to-Port Triangle

Port of Portland seaportAuburn Intermodal FacilityLewiston / Auburn port inland rail

port connectionsRedeveloped Brunswick Naval Air

Station Auburn I-95 Exit 75 Planning

Study Searsport – Bangor rail

connection, Sears Island? Eastport – rail connection

Freight Rail OpportunitiesThree Port Connections Initiative:

Eastport – Bulk handling conveyor and upgrades to the state-owned rail line between Calais and Perry

Portland – Improved freight operations and harbor dredge spoil program

Searsport – Port crane heavy lift capacity and harbor-channel deepening

Mt. Division rehab and reactivation to Port of Portland

Amtrak Downeaster offers five daily roundtrips between Portland and Boston

FY 2008, over 266,000 Amtrak passengers started or ended their trips in Maine.170,100 in Portland 48,500 in Wells 35,300 in Saco-Biddeford 12,200 in Old Orchard Beach

Ridership business travelers, tourist and college students

Passenger Rail

Source: FRA “Vision for High Speed Rail in America”

NE High-Speed Rail Vision

DowneasterExtend rail from Portland to

Brunswick, stop in FreeportReduce travel time between

Boston-Portland to 2 hoursIncrease capacity to support

7 daily roundtripsConnect Brunswick to

Rockland, via Maine Eastern, subsequent service to island communities via Maine State Ferry Service

Passenger Rail Opportunities

Shared-Use Benefits Most rail networks are

privately owned Freight and passenger

networks have different operational profiles

Addressing shared-use scenarios can have broad benefits for multiple stakeholders

Passenger Rail Issues Intense competition for limited Federal funding State and local funding constraints Will there be enough ridership to adequately support

current and proposed services? If not, then what level of support should the State provide?

Are there other types of financial arrangements that should be explored? Private operations Public-private partnerships

Breakout Groups Carol Morris, FacilitatorRaymond Tomczak, Facilitator Dennis Coffey, Facilitator

Today’s Discussion Topics?Is the rail system adequate to meet current and future needs

of Maine’s industries?What role can improved intercity and new commuter rail have

on mobility? What do you see as the priority projects? Maine has several good programs to encourage freight rail.

What other steps should Maine take?What are the most pressing statewide and regional rail issues

currently and in the next five to ten years? What trends affect the State and its stakeholders in

addressing and meeting regional and statewide rail needs? What criteria should Maine use to prioritize rail investments?

Next Steps Generate criteria Review criteria with TAC via conference call/emailPublic outreach September 28th and 29th Complete infrastructure conditions assessment and

commodity inventory Complete economic and environmental trend identification

and benefits analysisRefine issues and opportunitiesGet information to TAC for reviewDraft investments, policies and next steps Conduct next round of TAC and Public Meetings

Removed Slides

What Could Be Done?If we invest in rail will it bolster the paper / pulp

industry? What if no investments were made? If we don’t invest in rail what will be the highway

impact?If we do invest in rail what other benefits may accrue to

the state?What mix of passenger and freight investments can and

should be made?What is the benefit-cost ratio of private sector

investment strategies?

Strategies for Moving ForwardSample discussion topics for today:

We are in a recession - once we recover, what will the “new normal” be? How will things change?

Would existing and future freight rail support this? What does it need? Where? Is it viable?

Would existing and future passenger rail support this? What does it need? Where? Is it viable?

What role does/should rail play in economic development and Maine’s ability to attract industry and tourists?

Total Tonnage by Mode

ModeThousands of Tons

1997 2002 2007

Air/other 152 19 34

Intermodal 307 172 893

Truck 76,735 58,941 69,337

Pipeline 6,115 20,547 22,786

Rail 5,421 5,184 6,012

Water 2,492 62 61

TOTAL 91,222 84,924 99,123


20094,500?

Total Value by Mode

Mode Millions of Dollars

1997 2002 2007

Air/other 1,432 437 2,484

Intermodal 6,853 5,446 4,888

Truck 38,021 50,009 57,093

Pipeline 1,956 7,138 10,555

Rail 2,213 2,620 2,962

Water 570 75 48

Total 51,045 65,725 78,029


Top Ten Rail Trading Partners by Tonnage (2007)

Origin Maine Destination Maine

State Thousands of Tons

State Thousands of Tons

Colorado 345 Canada 1,106

Illinois 229 Colorado 429

Pennsylvania 207 Montana 350

Kentucky 203 Wyoming 115

East/South Asia 131 Georgia 102

Wisconsin 126 Iowa 83

Virginia 91 Massachusetts 46

Tennessee 74 Vermont 38

Indiana 60 Indiana 29

Canada 54 Missouri 28


presented by: mainedothntb morris communications september 16, 2009

Documents

future of rail

challenges rail

passenger rail

federal rail funding

rail rows willing

public meeting slide

prioritizing rail investment

harmful emissions rail