presented by: mainedothntb morris communications september 16, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
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Presented by: Presented by:
MaineDOTMaineDOT
HNTBHNTB
Morris Communications Morris Communications
September 16, 2009September 16, 2009
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AgendaIntroductions and Opening Comments
Nathan Moulton, Project Manager, MaineDOT State Rail Plan Presentation
The Role and Challenges of the TAC, Carol Morris, Morris Communications
Project Overview, Ray Tomczak, HNTBRail System Inventory, Dennis Coffey, HNTB
Breakout Groups
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Why Are You Here? Your input on the TAC is key to identifying:Issues and trends that affect the quality of life and
business conditions in the stateRail and multi-modal connection needsBetter ways to collaborateYour opinion on statewide and regional rail strategiesAssist MaineDOT in prioritizing rail investment in Maine
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MaineDOT and RailDeveloped Rail and Port investment plan to start needs
identification/funding frameworkWilling to put capital $$’s into infrastructure
rehabilitation and maintaining rail ROWsWilling to provide operations subsidy for passenger rail Not willing to subsidize freight rail operation and
maintenanceActively support public-private partnerships such as IRAPDeveloping State Rail Plan to help shape future and allow
us to qualify for federal rail funding
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What We Can Agree On Rail supports the State’s economy
Provides mobility for people and goodsSupports business/industry/jobs
Rails knits communities togetherRail can reduce highway congestionRail is good for the environment
Reduces energy use and harmful emissionsRail is a vital part of a State’s multimodal transportation
network
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Our Challenges Rail is important to Maine’s future, but funding for
infrastructure and passenger operations is scarceChanges in Maine’s economy make it harder to predict
future needsWe need to support rail, but can’t do everything at onceInformed, long-term planning and prioritization is keyThe people in this room have the knowledge to make a
positive impact on the future of rail in Maine
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Public Outreach Carol Morris, Facilitator
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Public Outreach BenefitsSolicit feedback from key stakeholder groups without
which the study cannot be successfulEncourage the public to provide comment and thereby
improve the end result Key is encouraging productive comment - time is at a
premium
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Plan OutreachPublic Meetings: September/December Technical Advisory Committee Meetings:
September/NovemberIndividual Stakeholder Meetings/SurveysPress ReleasesMeeting Summaries: to be emailed to TAC and interested
parties and posted on web siteProject Website is www.maine.gov/modot/railplan - will
be used for additional public input
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TAC Meetings Two meetings scheduled
September 16, 2009: to review findings to date and - through discussion - identify needs and priorities
Mid-November 2009: to review draft Plan recommendations prior to the December Public Meeting
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Public Meetings Two rounds of meetings
September 28 and 29: to talk with public on challenges, issues and prioritization criteria
Early December 2009: to review and comment on draft Plan recommendations
Two locations Bangor Motor Inn: September 28University of Southern Maine/Glickman Library: September
29
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Breakout Groups (1:50-3:50 pm)TAC members break out into three groupsEach TAC member can choose two questions to discuss1:50 - 2:30: Session 1 breakouts2:35 - 2:50: Five-minute summaries to full group on
discussion outcomes2:50 - 3:30: Session 2 breakouts3:35 - 3:50: Five-minute summaries to full group on
discussion outcomes
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Project Overview Raymond Tomczak, Project Manager, HNTB
Purpose of State Rail PlanScheduleInvestment CriteriaEconomic, Employment and Transportation Trends
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Why A State Rail Plan? Meet current and future system demandsEstablish a vision to guide future investment Provide a basis for Federal and State investment in rail
Requirement of Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act (PRIIA) of 2008
Submission to USDOT every 5 yearsMaineDOT Critical Rail Program
Ensure we prioritize investments to achieve maximum public benefit
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Study Purpose / Schedule
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Draft Investment Criteria Enhance freight and passenger rail service that provides
dual transportation system benefitService key manufacturing industriesProvide a net reduction in overall greenhouse gas
emissions from the transportation sectorHelp facilitate the shift of rail-appropriate freight from
road to railPromote the leveraging of private or other funds for
every state dollar invested
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Economic TrendsGrowth Rates in Key Maine Economic Indicators
Source: Moody’s/economy.com, August 2009
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Employment ForecastMaine Employment Growth Rates
Source: Moody’s/economy.com, August 2009
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Highest Growth Industries - MEEmployment Group
Growth Rate - 2010 to 2020
Education and Health Services 2.31% Local Services 2.24% Leisure and Hospitality 2.22% Professional and Business Services 1.92% Business-Related Services 1.58% Housing Related 1.47% Financial Activities 1.36% IT-Using Industries 1.35% Office-using industries 1.28% High-tech 1.26% State Government 1.25% Private Household Workers 1.23% Tourism and Entertainment Services 1.07% Universities 1.03%
Source: Moody’s/economy.com, August 2009
Mostly Service Related
But Will Require Goods
Movement
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Industry 2000-10 2010-20 2000-10 2010-20 Farms 1.93% 4.40% -0.83% -0.64% Fishing, Hunting, Etc. -1.01% 4.26% -1.41% 0.00% Chemical, Energy, Plastic, & Rubber Manufacturing 1.76% 4.17% -0.88% -0.88% Electronic & Electrical Manufacturing 3.72% 2.56% -9.86% -1.24% Manufacturing, Durable Goods 2.63% 2.53% -3.74% -0.10% Heavy Manufacturing 0.18% 2.26% -3.84% -0.01% Manufacturing, Non-Durable Goods -1.14% 2.15% -4.59% -0.14% Furniture & Misc. Manufacturing 0.28% 2.02% -3.28% -0.37% Metals & Mining Based Manufacturing 2.36% 1.89% -0.67% -0.23% Textile, Fiber, & Printing Manufacturing -2.34% 1.67% -6.85% 0.06% Natural Resources and Mining 0.23% -0.43% -2.39% 0.09%
GDP Employment
Rail-Dependent Industries - ME
Source: Moody’s/economy.com, August 2009
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Peak-Period Congestion on National Highway System: 2035
Source: USDOT, FHWA, Office of Freight Management and Operations, Freight Analysis Framework, version 2.2, 2007.
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Train Volumes in 2035 Compared to Current Capacity
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Rail System Inventory Dennis Coffey, HNTB
Historical TrendsCurrent ConditionsFuture Needs
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Rail Mileage History
Source: Americans-Rail.com
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Freight Rail1,154 active route miles~100 public ownership~1054 private ownershipNo Class 1 Railroads
3 Class II Railroads
4 Class III Railroads
Rail terminals and intermodal facilitiesPortlandAuburnWaterville
90,700 carloads in 2007
40th State in Rail Miles Nationwide
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Freight Rail Status 1,154 miles active
~230 miles inactive with no service, but track exist
~85 miles track removed,
interim trail use
~300 miles State owned railway
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Maine Is Not So Unique With respect to freight rail ownership! At least 20 other States own rail lines over which freight
service is largely operated by private entities Alaska – ARC owner/operator 544 miles (unique case)Georgia – approx. 486 miles New Hampshire – largest owner of NH rail (~201 miles) North Carolina – NCRR, privately run company owned by
NC leased 317 miles to NSOklahoma – approx. 800 miles South Dakota – approx. 301 miles Vermont – approx. 305 miles
Maine approx. 100 miles
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Variables for Shipping Via Rail Is it cost-effective for my business? What are the service levels?
Is it a time critical commodity?Is service available and of interest to the railroad?
What is the weight and distance being moved? Direct rail or intermodal?Can the destination accommodate rail?Where do I start?
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Share of Total Freight Shipments by Mode and Tonnage (2007): United States and Maine
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
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Share of Total Freight Shipments by Mode and Value (2007): United States and Maine
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
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Maine Freight Shipments in Thousands of Tons by Direction (2007): All Modes
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
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Maine Rail Shipments by Direction in Thousands of Tons (2007)
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
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Top Ten Rail Commodities in Thousands of Tons (2007)
Commodity Tons (000s) % of totalNewsprint/paper 2,220 41%Wood prods. 966 18%Nonmetallic minerals 664 12%Coal 427 7.8%Coal-n.e.c. 336 6.1%Basic chemicals 228 4.2%Chemical prods. 197 3.6%Gravel 85 1.6%Plastics/rubber 75 1.4%Paper articles 73 1.3%
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
60% Pulp & Paper
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Top Ten Rail Commodities in Millions of Dollars (2007)
Commodity Mil Dollars % of totalNewsprint/paper 1,540 55%Wood prods. 637 23%Chemical prods. 163 5.8%Plastics/rubber 139 4.9%Coal-n.e.c. 76 2.7%Electronics 48 1.7%Paper articles 45 1.6%Basic chemicals 43 1.5%Nonmetallic minerals 36 1.3%Motorized vehicles 34 1.2%
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
80% Pulp & Paper
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Maine Paper Industry
Mill Locations
2006 Production NumbersBucksport – International Paper
• 4,700 tons per day (235 TPD)
Skowhegan – Sappi• 4,000 tons per day (200 TPD)
Rumford – Mead Westvaco• 2,800 tons per day (140 TPD)
Jay – International & Wausau Paper• 1,800 tons per day (90 TPD)
Woodland – Domtar• 1,460 tons per day (73 TPD)
Madawaska – Fraser Papers Inc• 1,300 tons of paper per day (65 TPD)
Lincoln – Lincoln Paper• 760 tons per day (38 TPD)
Madison – Madison Paper• 750 tons per day (38 TPD)
Millinocket – Katahdin Paper• 500 tons of paper per day (25 TPD)
High-Volume Concentration
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Economic Factors Affecting Maine Pulp and Paper IndustryDepends on US national growth and relative cost of
operating/production in Maine relative to other US and international producers
US markets and demand are a function of:Publishing industry outputAdvertising volumes and salesUS personal consumption patterns
Limited growth opportunities for domestic pulp/paper demandMost foreseeable growth in exportsPorts are the key to participation in export-oriented markets
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Pulp and Paper Trends Short-term trends support continued operations of
specialty paper producersKey specialty mills will produce at current levelsOlder tissue/print operations sold for tax purposes may be phased out
either temporarily or permanently
Statewide forecasts for employment in pulp/paper industry expected to continue to decline over next 25 years (ME state forecast/economy.com)
Long-term output growth in pulp/paper industry likely to remain near 2008 levelsForecasts differ based on expected growth of export markets
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Why Should We Care? If rail service did not exist for the paper industry in Maine
this would amount to an additional 866 outbound loaded trucks per day.
Since every load starts with an empty – there would need to be an additional 866 inbound trucks per day to carry this freight.
Do these trucks exist?What would be the resulting highway impact? Who will absorb the additional maintenance costs?
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What If No Action Is Taken?Negative effects on Maine could include:
Pulp and paper industry less competitive due to increased transportation costs
Lower profits / loss of market options for rail shippers Lost economic development opportunities Loss of local tax base Potential increase in highway accidents, congestion, air
pollution and energy dependence on oil Once rail service is gone it’s difficult to replace!
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Freight Rail IssuesHeavy reliance on paper & pulp industryInsufficient rail cars & service to accommodate needsSystem abandonments and state ownership Weight and vertical constraintsJunction constraints (Danville / Northern Maine)Lack of private and public capital to maintain and
operate current system and future improvements
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Rail Industry Price Trends
% Change vs. 1 month ago 6 mos. ago 1 yr. ago
Rail freight 0.9 -1.9 -8.1
Intermodal 0.6 -0.4 -17.9
Carload 1.0 -2.1 -7.0
Source: Logistics Mgt
Declining prices indicate carriers effort to compete with falling truck prices and an effort to increase market share in a declining economy
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Freight Rail OpportunitiesRail-to-Port Triangle
Port of Portland seaportAuburn Intermodal FacilityLewiston / Auburn port inland rail
port connectionsRedeveloped Brunswick Naval Air
Station Auburn I-95 Exit 75 Planning
Study Searsport – Bangor rail
connection, Sears Island? Eastport – rail connection
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Freight Rail OpportunitiesThree Port Connections Initiative:
Eastport – Bulk handling conveyor and upgrades to the state-owned rail line between Calais and Perry
Portland – Improved freight operations and harbor dredge spoil program
Searsport – Port crane heavy lift capacity and harbor-channel deepening
Mt. Division rehab and reactivation to Port of Portland
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Amtrak Downeaster offers five daily roundtrips between Portland and Boston
FY 2008, over 266,000 Amtrak passengers started or ended their trips in Maine.170,100 in Portland 48,500 in Wells 35,300 in Saco-Biddeford 12,200 in Old Orchard Beach
Ridership business travelers, tourist and college students
Passenger Rail
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Source: FRA “Vision for High Speed Rail in America”
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NE High-Speed Rail Vision
DowneasterExtend rail from Portland to
Brunswick, stop in FreeportReduce travel time between
Boston-Portland to 2 hoursIncrease capacity to support
7 daily roundtripsConnect Brunswick to
Rockland, via Maine Eastern, subsequent service to island communities via Maine State Ferry Service
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Passenger Rail Opportunities
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Shared-Use Benefits Most rail networks are
privately owned Freight and passenger
networks have different operational profiles
Addressing shared-use scenarios can have broad benefits for multiple stakeholders
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Passenger Rail Issues Intense competition for limited Federal funding State and local funding constraints Will there be enough ridership to adequately support
current and proposed services? If not, then what level of support should the State provide?
Are there other types of financial arrangements that should be explored? Private operations Public-private partnerships
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Breakout Groups Carol Morris, FacilitatorRaymond Tomczak, Facilitator Dennis Coffey, Facilitator
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Today’s Discussion Topics?Is the rail system adequate to meet current and future needs
of Maine’s industries?What role can improved intercity and new commuter rail have
on mobility? What do you see as the priority projects? Maine has several good programs to encourage freight rail.
What other steps should Maine take?What are the most pressing statewide and regional rail issues
currently and in the next five to ten years? What trends affect the State and its stakeholders in
addressing and meeting regional and statewide rail needs? What criteria should Maine use to prioritize rail investments?
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Next Steps Generate criteria Review criteria with TAC via conference call/emailPublic outreach September 28th and 29th Complete infrastructure conditions assessment and
commodity inventory Complete economic and environmental trend identification
and benefits analysisRefine issues and opportunitiesGet information to TAC for reviewDraft investments, policies and next steps Conduct next round of TAC and Public Meetings
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Removed Slides
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What Could Be Done?If we invest in rail will it bolster the paper / pulp
industry? What if no investments were made? If we don’t invest in rail what will be the highway
impact?If we do invest in rail what other benefits may accrue to
the state?What mix of passenger and freight investments can and
should be made?What is the benefit-cost ratio of private sector
investment strategies?
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Strategies for Moving ForwardSample discussion topics for today:
We are in a recession - once we recover, what will the “new normal” be? How will things change?
Would existing and future freight rail support this? What does it need? Where? Is it viable?
Would existing and future passenger rail support this? What does it need? Where? Is it viable?
What role does/should rail play in economic development and Maine’s ability to attract industry and tourists?
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Total Tonnage by Mode
ModeThousands of Tons
1997 2002 2007
Air/other 152 19 34
Intermodal 307 172 893
Truck 76,735 58,941 69,337
Pipeline 6,115 20,547 22,786
Rail 5,421 5,184 6,012
Water 2,492 62 61
TOTAL 91,222 84,924 99,123
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
20094,500?
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Total Value by Mode
Mode Millions of Dollars
1997 2002 2007
Air/other 1,432 437 2,484
Intermodal 6,853 5,446 4,888
Truck 38,021 50,009 57,093
Pipeline 1,956 7,138 10,555
Rail 2,213 2,620 2,962
Water 570 75 48
Total 51,045 65,725 78,029
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)
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Top Ten Rail Trading Partners by Tonnage (2007)
Origin Maine Destination Maine
State Thousands of Tons
State Thousands of Tons
Colorado 345 Canada 1,106
Illinois 229 Colorado 429
Pennsylvania 207 Montana 350
Kentucky 203 Wyoming 115
East/South Asia 131 Georgia 102
Wisconsin 126 Iowa 83
Virginia 91 Massachusetts 46
Tennessee 74 Vermont 38
Indiana 60 Indiana 29
Canada 54 Missouri 28
Source: FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF2)