Presented byBinaya Pasakhala

Assessing Vulnerability of People’s Livelihood in Far-western Nepal: Implications on

Adaptation to Climate Change

Introduction

The earth’s global temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C in a period of 150 years.

Increase in sea level rise, altitudinal shift of vegetation, retreat of glaciers and rise in extreme climatic conditions.

Impacts of climate change will be severe upon developing countries and poor people.

Impact of climate change in

Nepal • Rise in Temperature

(In Nepal, temperature rise of about

0.06ºC recorded between 1977-94 )

Melting of Glaciers Floods Drought Fire

Introduction

Problem Statement

Need for Adaptation

Decline in agricultural production

Damages and losses of infrastructure and property

Loss of lives

General objective : To assess vulnerability of people’s livelihood

in Far-western, Nepal.

Specific objectives

• To document trend of change of temperature and

precipitation

• To assess livelihood assets of local people

• To examine factors contributing to vulnerability of households

to climate variability and change

• To examine existing measures adopted for coping with climate

variability and change

Objectives

Result Interpretation

Literature Review

Research Design

Problem Statement

Objective 2• Primary data:

Household questionnaire survey, Key Informant Survey

• Frequency, Percentage, t-tests, Weighted Average Index

Objective 1

• Secondary data from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

• Trend Analysis

Objective 3• Primary data:

Household questionnaire survey, Key Informant Survey, Group Discussion

• Frequency, Percentage, AHP, Correlation and Multiple regression

Objective 4• Primary data:

Household questionnaire survey, Key Informant Survey, Group discussion

• Frequency and Percentage

Conclusion and Recommendation

Data Collection

Study area Selection

Sample Design

Research Methodology

• Situated in Plain area

• Flood affected in 2007, 2008, 2009

Sample Size: 98

• Situated in Siwalik hill

• Drought affected in 2008

Sample Size: 87

• District in Far-western region of Nepal

• Area- 3235 sq km.• Climate- Tropical in

Plains and sub-tropical in Siwalik range

Study Area

Flood Affected Areas

Pawera

Basauti

1

95

78

46

38

2 No damage

Loss of crops

Damage to house and property

Loss of Livestock

Loss of agricul-ture land

Injury

Damages due to climatic hazards

Drought Affected Area

Godavari

4

89

48

31

20

No damage

Loss of crops

Damage to house and property

Loss of Livestock

Loss of agricul-ture land

Injury

Damages due to climatic hazards

Trend of Change in Temperature

Number of cool nights decreased by 10 nights during 1977 and 2008, which was statistically significant.

Trend of Change in Rainfall

Number of consecutive dry days increased by 60 days during 1977 and 2008, which was statistically significant.

Trend of Change in Rainfall

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1977-86

1987-96

1998-06

Monthly distribution of rainfall in decades

Trend of Change in Rainfall

Perception on change in temperature

No change Increase Decrease0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Flood af-fected area

Drought af-fected area

No change Increase Decrease0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Flood af-fected area

Drought af-fected area

Perception on change in amount of rainfall

Perception on Trend of Climate

Deforestation was perceived as major reason for increasing temperature and change in rainfall pattern

• Possession of livelihood assets was statistically different between two areas

• Access to road, market and linkages with external agencies were better in flood affected area than in drought affected area

• Agriculture was major on-farm occupation and labor was major off-farm occupation of households in both study areas

• Failure of crops have caused shift in livelihood strategy (i.e. from agriculture to labor)

Livelihood Assessment

Flood affected area Drought affected area

P

S

FH

N

0

0.5

1

High

Medium

Low

P

S

FH

N

0

0.5

1

High

Medium

Low

P= Physical capital, S= Social capital, F= Financial capital, H= Human capital and N= Natural capital

Livelihood Assessment

No statistical significant difference between group of respondents (on basis of ethnicity and caste) in both areas.

Indicators of adaptive capacity

Variables Weights Consistency Index (CI)

Physical Capital

Land Holding 0.54 Maximum Eigen value = 4.11 CI = 0.03

Availability of Irrigation facility

0.23

Livestock 0.15Information Sources 0.08

Human CapitalTrainings attended 0.54 Maximum

Eigenvalue = 3CI = 0.04

Educated Percent 0.30Labor aged members 0.16

Financial Capital

Income sources 0.44 Maximum Eigenvalue = 4.26CI = 0.086

Annual income level 0.29Savings 0.15Access to credit 0.12

Social CapitalSocial harmony 0.54 Maximum

Eigenvalue = 3.09CI = 0.04

Membership to institutions 0.30Participation 0.16

Natural CapitalCrop diversity 0.50 Maximum

Eigen value = 2CI = 0

Adoption of new crop varieties 0.50

Vulnerability Assessment

Indicators of exposure and sensitivity

Rating scale

0.33 (low) 0.67 (medium) 1 (high)

Number of damages 1 or 0 2 3

Prior experience of extreme climatic events No - Yes

Food insecurity 8-12 months 4-8 monthsLess than 4

months

Proportion of on-farm income

Less than 30 percent 30-60 percent Above 60 percent

Distance from riverAbove 400

meters 100-400 metersLess than 100

meters

Vulnerability = (adaptive capacity) – (sensitivity + exposure)(Deressa et al., 2008)

Vulnerability Assessment

28

27

45

Low Medium High

Flood affected area

6

20

74

Low Medium High

Drought affected area

Percentage of households into 3 vulnerable groups

Vulnerability Assessment

Low Medium High

Vulnerability Score Range

1 0.05 -0.09 -1

Low Medium High0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Tharu

Brahmin/Chhetri

Low Medium High0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90Brahmin/ChhetriDalits

Flood affected area Drought affected area

Percentage of respondents’ group into 3 vulnerable groups

Vulnerability Assessment

Distance from river and annual income was identified as major factors affecting vulnerability of households in flood affected area

Prior experience of climatic hazard and annual income were identified as major factor affecting vulnerability of households in drought affected area

Factors affecting Vulnerability of households

Autonomous Adaptation Measures

Water pumps and natural springs

Change in cropping calendar

Raising house storey and foundation

Raised silos, steel silos

Adoption of improved crop varieties

Out migration

Change in climate was not singular reason for adoption of improved crop varieties.

Adaptation Measures

Early warning system

Evacuation shelter houses

Raised water hand pumps

River training

River bed cultivation

Planned adaptation measures: supported by external agencies in flood affected area

Barriers to adaptation: Lack of governmental and external agencies

supportLack of resources, Lack of technical knowledge, Lack of awareness.

Non-significant increasing trend of temperature and significant increase in dry days and decline in winter rain during 1997-2007.

Vulnerability of households to climate change is higher in drought affected area (Siwalik hills) than in flood affected area (plains).

Vulnerability between groups of respondent were insignificant.

Distance from river was major factor influencing vulnerability of households to climate variability and change in flood affected area.

Similarly, prior experience of climatic disaster was major factor influencing vulnerability of households to climate variability and change in drought affected area.

Communities have adopted adaptation measures in response to climatic hazards. Adaptation measures insulate households from negative impacts of climate hazards.

Conclusions

Empowerment and awareness raising of local people

Construction of reservoirs and irrigation facility, river training activities, installing early warning system

Introducing microfinance schemes

Inclusion of institutional arrangements and policies for vulnerability assessment

Recommendations

Government and NGOs

Researchers

Households Adoption of drought hardy and flood

hardy crop varieties Diversifying livelihood strategies

PLIGHT of NEPAL TOO MUCH WATER OR NO WATER