presentation to the alliance€¦ · presentation to the alliance anchorage, alaska february 25,...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation to The Alliance
Anchorage, AlaskaFebruary 25, 2010
2February 25, 2010
First Open Season for North Slope Gas
On January 29, Alaska Pipeline Project (APP) filed an Open Season plan with Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
Two pipeline options:
• 4.5 Bcf/d Pipeline from North Slope to Alberta Hub
• 3.0 Bcf/d Pipeline from North Slope to Valdez
• Both options include:• Access to North Slope gas for Alaskans
• Minimum 5 Alaska off-takes
• Gas Treatment Plant
• Pipeline from the Point Thomson field
3February 25, 2010
Path to In-service
Large pipeline projects undergo:
• Lengthy development stage
• If development stage is successful, then move to construction and operations
APP’s development stage scheduled to run through 2014
All stakeholders have important responsibilities
• Alaska Pipeline Project / Producers-Shippers / Governments
• All parties need to achieve commercial and regulatory breakthroughs
4February 25, 2010
Open Season Timeline
• Filing begins 60-day FERC review for U.S. section
• If FERC approves plan, conduct Open Season from May-July 2010
• Concurrent Canadian Open Seasons for Alberta option
• Expect APP / Shipper follow-up negotiations to resolve conditioned bids (typical situation)
• Final Open Season results targeted by year-end 2010
• Contingent on satisfactory resolution of Shippers’ conditions precedent
5February 25, 2010
APP’s Competitive Response
• APP offering better commercial terms / access than in AGIA Application
• Available to Shippers in APP’s initial Open Season
• Comprehensive Alberta and Valdez options
• Responsive to Shipper discussions
• 48 inch 3.0 Bcf/d pipeline to Valdez
• Access to other pipelines upstream of Alberta Hub
• 20-year minimum contract term for firm service
• Interruptible, overrun and park-and-loan services
• Shared development costs
• Better commercial terms reduces tolls by $500 million/year
• 12% ROE
• 80% capital recovery over initial contract term
• 70/30 debt/equity ratio for expansions
6February 25, 2010
Project Cost Estimates / Indicative Tolls (2009 US$)
Pipeline from North Slope to Alberta• Capital cost range: $32B - $41B• Target in-service: 2020• Tariff range (incl. fuel): $2.80 - $3.50/MMBtu (from GTP to Alberta Hub)
Pipeline from North Slope to Valdez• Capital cost range: $20B - $26B• Target in-service: 2020• Tariff range (incl. fuel): $2.45 - $3.15/MMBtu (from GTP to Valdez)
7February 25, 2010
Natural Gas / Oil Price Outlook (U.S. DOE) (2009 US$)
020406080
100120140160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030AEO 2007 in Dec 2006 AEO 2008 in Dec 2007AEO 2009 in Apr 2009 AEO 2010 in Dec 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030AE0 2007 in Dec 2006 AEO 2008 in Dec 2007AEO 2009 in Apr 2009 AEO 2010 in Dec 2009
Alberta Hub Natural Gas Prices $/MMBtu Light Sweet Imported Oil Prices $/bbl
8February 25, 2010
Upcoming Regulatory/Commercial Milestones
What should project supporters focus on?
Alaska Pipeline Project• Resolve conditions precedent with Shippers
• Continue work to prepare for major U.S./Canadian permitting
• Meet AGIA obligations (including FERC Application in 2012)
• Advance project in step with commercial and regulatory breakthroughs
• Continue to seek alignment with BP / COP
Producers / Shippers• Resolve conditions precedent with APP
• Resolve upstream fiscal and resource access issues with State
• Arrange downstream transportation, secure final gas markets and export permits (LNG option)
State of Alaska• Resolve any fiscal or resource access issues with Producers / Shippers
• Facilitate project permitting
U.S. Government / FERC• Establish Federal Loan Guarantee level / terms and conditions
• Facilitate project permitting
Government of Canada• Facilitate project permitting
9February 25, 2010
APP is the Right Choice
• Comprehensive, credible and competitive Open Season plan
• TransCanada and ExxonMobil have unparalleled expertise / experience in interstate/inter-provincial gas pipelines and gas treatment plants
• Over one-quarter million hours of engineering, regulatory, technical, environmental, commercial, legal and project management work
• Builds on significant base from past initiatives for Alaska gas
• Joint project work has provided improved understanding of scope, costs, complexities and risk for this large, complex project
• Alberta and Valdez options
• Legislative and regulatory structure in place to expedite project in Alaska and Canada
• TransCanada/ExxonMobil/State working together through AGIA structure provides best opportunity to:
• Align all stakeholders
• Achieve project benefits for Alaskans and other parties
10February 25, 2010
APP Sponsors’ Experience / Expertise
• The following are some photos illustrating TransCanada /
ExxonMobil recent experience on major projects with similar
characteristics to the gas treatment plant and the pipeline
project.
11February 25, 2010
Gas Treatment Plant, UK
12February 25, 2010
Sakhalin module
13February 25, 2010
North Slope module
14February 25, 2010
Qatar Gas Trains
15February 25, 2010
Sakhalin OPF construction
16February 25, 2010
640-Person Camp
17February 25, 2010
Pipe Stockpile
18February 25, 2010
Pipe Coating
19February 25, 2010
Ditcher
20February 25, 2010
River Crossing
21February 25, 2010
Stringing
22February 25, 2010
Bending
23February 25, 2010
Welding
24February 25, 2010
Dual Torch Automatic Welding
25February 25, 2010
UltraSonic Testing
26February 25, 2010
Lowering In
27February 25, 2010
Compressor Station
28February 25, 2010
Construction / In-service
29February 25, 2010
Construction / In-service
30February 25, 2010
Construction / In-service
31February 25, 2010
Project Landmarks – Spring 2011
• Alaska Pipeline Project
• Open Season results in hand
• Advancing on major U.S./Canada permitting, including FERC
Application in 2012
• Alignment with BP/COP?
• Producers/State of Alaska
• Resolution of upstream fiscal and resource access issues?
• U.S. Government
• Establish Federal Loan Guarantee level/terms and conditions?
32February 25, 2010
Winter Operator
33February 25, 2010
Summer Operator
Thank You
APP’s Open Season Plan available at www.thealaskapipelineproject.com or on the FERC website
Thank You