presentation era cuauhtemoc
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
1/21
OECD/IEA 2012
Emergency Response Assessment of CHILE
On no one quality, on no one process, on no one
country, on no one route, and on no one field must
we be dependent
W. Churchill
Cuauhtmoc Lpez-Bassols
Energy Analyst, IEA
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
2/21
OECD/IEA 2012
Chiles Energy Mix
Total primary energy supply
Chiles TPES has grown 4.2% per year since 1990 (to2009), in line with its economic development.
Oil 54%, Combustible renewables/waste 17%, Coal 13%,Gas 8% (2009).
Gas: 26% TPES in 2004 before flows were restricted2
26%
8%
40% 54%
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
3/21
OECD/IEA 2012
Oil
Domestic production down from 14% in 1990 (15 kb/d) to
2% (3.6 kb/d) in 2010
Demand 333 kb/d (2010)
Transport 46%/ Power sector 17% (unusual for OECD =5%)
Oil products for power generation increased from an average
share of 2.4% in 2000-2006 to 28% in 2007-2009.
3
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fuel Oil Gas/diesel oil
Kerosene for domestic use Jetfuel Kerosene
Gasoline LPG
kb/d
29.5% Gasoil
for power
generation
2.4% Gasoil for
power generation
Imports ofGasoline/Diesel/Kero:100% from OECDcountries
Diesel (high spec): US37%, Rep. of Korea 35%,Japan 28%.
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
4/21
OECD/IEA 2012
Oil Infrastructure
Oil Pipelines Sonacol owns 6 pipelines and three terminals in
the central region.
Refining capacity
ENAP only refiner in Chile
Three refineries : 240kb/d or 70% prod. demand
Storage capacity
Total capacity: 22mb Crude: 1/3Products: 2/3
Average current utilisation rate 37%
Stock level: 30.8 days of netimports (IEA
methodology)4
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
5/21
OECD/IEA 2012
Key Oil Emergency Policy Issues
No NESO, but the National Emergency Office (ONEMI) isresponsible for coordinating efforts during emergencies
A 25 days stock-holding obligation on industry.
No regulation to determine how reserves are quantified,
administered or managed in emergencies
Study on 90-day stockholding estimates cost appears
excessively high
No clearly established demand restriction policy for liquid
fuels.
No/limited fuel-switching and oil surge capabilities.
Strict motor fuel specifications can pose a short-term
supply risk due to lack of available fuel in international
markets which meets standards
5
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
6/21
OECD/IEA 2012
Natural Gas
Peak demand of 8.3 bcm in 2004.
Gas consumption plummeted to 2.2 bcm in 2008 as aresult of curtailment of piped gas from Argentina.
LNG demand has grown in 2009 to 2.7 bcm
41% for power generation (2010)
6
Natural Gas Consumption by Sector
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1992
1996
2000
2007
Petrochemical feedstocks
Transformation
Other
Commercial and Residential
Industry
Transport
Indigenous production
mcm
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
7/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Gas Infrastructure
LNG terminals
Mejillones (2 bcm/year)
Theoretical send out rate 5.5 mcm/d
LNG used mainly for power generation
Quintero (3.9 bcm/year)
Maximum send out rate 10 mcm/d
Pipelines
Built in 1990s linking Chile with Argentina, now
mostly disused.
Storage
No stand-alone gas storage sites.
Storage capacity exists at LNG terminals: 334,000
cum and 160,000 cum.
No obligation on LNG terminal operators to hold a
minimum amount of stocks.
7
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
8/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Natural Gas Emergency Policy
No public or mandatory industry gas stocks
No specific response system for handling gas
emergencies. MoE is developing a regulation establishing how
industry must respond to situations in which gas
supply is at risk.
8
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
9/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity
SIC
SING
9
Rapid electricity growth from 40TWh in 2000 to 60TWh in 2010.
Demand growth expected at 6% pa for next 10 years.
Growth forecast to occur in the SIC
Industrial users account for nearly 70% of total electricity demand
Hydro power dominates the electricity mix; representing 46% of SIC
While gas (57%) dominate the generation mix in SING
Electricity demand
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
10/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity Infrastructure
Chiles power system : 4 regional powersystems.
The SIC: populous central region including
the main consumption centres: mainly
hydro The SING: north; serves the major mining
and processing operations: mainly thermal
The Aysn System in the south and the
Magallanes System in the far south; smalland isolated (generating capacity of around
150 MW).
10
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
11/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Chile Commended for - Oil
Chiles wide diversity of import sources.
MoE for its efforts in developing a market-
monitoring system for supply and demand.
MoE for commissioning a study on thepossibility of meeting the IEAs 90-day
stockholding obligation (although costs seem
excessively high).
MoE for a study into demand restraint
measures.
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
12/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Some Key RecommendationsOilSupply, Demand and Market Issues/Emergency
Encourage upstream investments as domesticproduction provides a good buffer for energy
security. (rec 1).
Reconsider the perceived value of reducing price
volatility-SIPCO (rec 3).
Introduce Third Party Access to storage facilities;
could help to optimise usage of existing storage
facilities, and discourage uncompetitivebehaviour (rec.4).
Develop a comprehensive emergency plan and
organisation for the energy sector, to improve
emergency preparedness. (rec.7)12
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
13/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Some Key RecommendationsOil (2)Supply Infrastructure- Emergency Policy
Continue to improve data collection, notably
requiring power plants and mining companies to
report their tertiary stock levels. (rec. 15)
Impose obligation on dual-fired electricitygenerating plants to hold minimum amount of
diesel stocks. (rec. 16)
Clarify process and conditions for authorising
and monitoring waivers for oil productspecifications in the event of an oil supply
disruption. (rec 19).
13
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
14/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Chile Commended for - Gas
The development of two LNG terminals within a
very short period of time, which provides a
significant source of energy security (flexibility
and storage).
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
15/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Key RecommendationsGasSupply, Demand and Market Issues -Infrastructure
Encourage upstream investments, including furtheranalysis of unconventional gas prospects. (rec 20)
Increasing LPG import capabilities beyond the two
existing terminals. (rec. 24 )
Investigate storage capacity potential of under-utilised
trans-Andean pipelines. (rec. 26)
Consider imposing a minimum stockholding obligation
on the Quintero LNG terminal, based on a worst-case
scenario for the weather that would affect the Bay ofQuintero. (rec. 27)
15
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
16/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Key RecommendationsGas (2)Supply Infrastructure-Emergency Policy
Consider building stocks of LPG throughout the
supply chain in order to better cope with supply
emergencies. (rec. 28)
Develop a comprehensive emergency policyframework for natural gas disruptions, including
priority users, demand restraint measures,
interruptible contracts, forward planning and
TSO-like responsibilities. (rec. 31)
16
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
17/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Chile Commended for - Electricity
Efforts to identify and address the lessons
learned from recent emergency events.
Steps taken to diversify its electricity generation
mix, especially through the deployment of newnon-conventional renewable energy.
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
18/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Key RecommendationsElectricityGeneral Issues
Review and clarify regulatory and operational
responsibilities to improve the timeliness and
effectiveness of decision-making in response to
emergency events.(rec.32)
Strengthen the independence and objectivity of
system operation, notably by reforming
governance and funding arrangements to
remove conflicts of interest. (rec.33)
18
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
19/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Key RecommendationsElectricity (2)
System Security and Adequacy
Review the application of current operational
and technical standards, like the N-1 standard,
to ensure that they provide a strong,
comprehensive and enforceable foundation for
delivering power system security. (rec. 35)
Assess the effectiveness of the Rationing Decree
Mechanism, with a view to improving its cost-
effectiveness, including the introduction ofmarket-based demand response elements. (rec.
40)
19
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
20/21 OECD/IEA 2012
Key RecommendationsElectricity (3)
System Security and Adequacy
Streamline investment approvals, to minimiseprocessing delays, improve certainty and bring forward
investments to ensure electricity security. (rec.43)
Examine options for an interconnector between the SIC
and SING to improve power system reliability andresilience. (rec. 46)
Examine an obligation for adequate supplies of back-up
fuel to maintain electricity security during an
emergency. (rec. 47)
20
-
8/10/2019 Presentation ERA Cuauhtemoc
21/21