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PREQIN SECONDARY MARKET UPDATEQ1 2018
© Preqin Ltd. 2018 / www.preqin.com2
PREQIN SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, Q1 2018
FOREWORD
All rights reserved. The entire contents of Preqin Secondary Market Update, Q1 2018 are the Copyright of Preqin Ltd. No part of this publication or any information contained in it may be copied, transmitted by any electronic means, or stored in any electronic or other data storage medium, or printed or published in any document, report or publication, without the express prior written approval of Preqin Ltd. The information presented in Preqin Secondary Market Update, Q1 2018 is for information purposes only and does not constitute and should not be construed as a solicitation or other offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction, or as advice of any nature whatsoever. If the reader seeks advice rather than information then he should seek an independent financial advisor and hereby agrees that he will not hold Preqin Ltd. responsible in law or equity for any decisions of whatever nature the reader makes or refrains from making following its use of Preqin Secondary Market Update, Q1 2018. While reasonable efforts have been made to obtain information from sources that are believed to be accurate, and to confirm the accuracy of such information wherever possible, Preqin Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty that the information or opinions contained in Preqin Secondary Market Update, Q1 2018 are accurate, reliable, up-to-date or complete. Although every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication Preqin Ltd. does not accept any responsibility for any errors or omissions within Preqin Secondary Market Update, Q1 2018 or for any expense or other loss alleged to have arisen in any way with a reader’s use of this publication.
p3 Fundraising
p4 Funds in Market
p5 Secondary Sellers
p7 Transactions
p8 Pricing
p9 Performance
p10 Outlook for 2018
In Q1 2018, five secondaries vehicles have successfully raised more capital than the 10 funds closed in Q4 2017 ($4.7bn vs. $3.7bn respectively). This was bolstered by the closures of Portfolio Advisors Secondary Fund III and Newbury Equity Partners IV on over $1bn
each.
At the start of Q2 2018, secondaries funds in market are seeking an aggregate $30bn. Although there are 34 secondaries funds in market, the majority (80%) of the amount sought is concentrated among seven funds (and six managers). These include Lexington Capital Partners IX, which is seeking $12bn to make it the largest secondaries fund ever closed. Investors are showing a strong appetite for secondaries, and fund managers are successfully attracting capital: 83% of funds closed in 2017 exceeded their target, and all of the funds closed in Q1 2018 exceeded their target.
The continued strong performance of secondaries vehicles relative to other strategies continues to underpin positive investor sentiment with respect to the asset class. Less than 2% of secondaries funds are currently delivering negative net IRRs, and the average median net IRR for secondaries funds across all vintages is 15.8% – this is higher than the average for all private capital funds (+13.0%).
The results of our secondary fund manager survey in January 2018 show that the secondary market is in good health: the desire for liquidity, the various portfolio management needs and a strong pricing environment drove activity in 2017, and this is expected to continue in 2018. This activity is supplemented by increasing opportunities from GP-led deals, with Q1 2018 seeing the first of this kind of transaction completed in Latin America. The majority (61%) of respondents expect to invest more capital in 2018 than they did in 2017, suggesting another active year for the secondary market.
We hope you find this report useful, and welcome any feedback you may have. For more information about Preqin’s online platform, please visit www.preqin.com or contact [email protected].
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FUNDRAISING
In Q1 2018, five secondaries funds held a final close, raising $4.7bn collectively,
a considerably smaller amount than the record $20bn raised by 11 funds in Q1 2017 (Fig. 1). Despite the Q4 2017 slump (when only $3.6bn was raised), 2017 was a record-setting year for the industry and, driven by the flurry of activity in both Q1 and Q3, $43bn was secured overall.
The largest secondaries fund closed in Q1 2018 was Portfolio Advisors’ Portfolio Advisors Secondary Fund III, which raised $1.5bn – exceeding its original target of $1.0bn (Fig. 4). Newbury Partners closed the second largest fund of Q1 2018, raising $1.4bn for Newbury Equity Partners IV.
All funds closed in Q1 2018 managed to exceed their original target (Fig. 2). This is a trend continued from 2017, where 83% of all funds closed above their targets, including 43% that raised 125% or more of their target. This emphasises the strong investor appetite for secondaries funds
currently, perhaps driven by the large amounts of dry powder in the industry: dry powder stands at $88bn, just below the record amount of $89bn seen in December 2017 (Fig. 3).
9% 5% 7% 5% 3%
9%10%
36%25%
10%
10%
7%
10%
3%
32% 20%
7%
45%
40%
40%
50% 55%43%
15%
43%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
125% or More
101-124%
100%
50-99%
Less than 50%
Source: Preqin
Prop
ortio
n of
Fun
ds C
lose
d
Year of Final Close
Fig. 2: Secondaries Funds Closed by Proportion of Target Size Achieved, 2013 - Q1 2018
23
37 36
52
4145
53 53
74
89 88
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec
-08
Dec
-09
Dec
-10
Dec
-11
Dec
-12
Dec
-13
Dec
-14
Dec
-15
Dec
-16
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Source: Preqin
Estim
ated
Dry
Pow
der
($bn
)
Fig. 3: Estimated Private Equity Secondaries Dry Powder, 2008 - 2018
Fig. 4: Secondaries Funds Closed in Q1 2018
Fund Firm Fund Size (mn) Type Geographic Focus
Portfolio Advisors Secondary Fund III Portfolio Advisors 1,500 USD Private Equity Secondaries US
Newbury Equity Partners IV Newbury Partners 1,447 USD Private Equity Secondaries US
GCM Grosvenor Secondary Opportunities Fund II GCM Grosvenor Private Markets 700 USD Private Equity Secondaries Europe
Altamar Global Secondaries IX Altamar Private Equity 541 EUR Private Equity Secondaries US
Euro Choice Secondary II Akina 300 EUR Private Equity Secondaries Europe
Source: Preqin
2
79
15
8 9
6
10
3
6
1
8 7 7 8 7
11 11
7
10
5
2.0 2.8
6.6
10.9
2.1
11.9
2.5
12.2
1.1
12.3
0.5
10.2
6.1
12.5
3.96.1
19.9
4.9
14.8
3.6 4.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
No. of Funds Closed Aggregate Capital Raised ($bn)
Source: Preqin
Fig. 1: Global Quarterly Secondaries Fundraising, Q1 2013 - Q1 2018
Date of Final Close
© Preqin Ltd. 2018 / www.preqin.com4
PREQIN SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, Q1 2018
At the start of Q2 2018, there are 34 secondaries vehicles in market seeking
an aggregate $30bn (Fig. 5). Although there are three fewer funds in market than at the start of the year, these fund are seeking more capital than in January 2018 ($21bn). Of the secondaries funds currently raising capital, 47% have held an interim close on $3.9bn collectively.
As shown in Fig. 6, the largest proportion (71%) of secondaries funds in market are primarily targeting North America, and the clear majority (86%) of capital is sought by North America-focused vehicles. There are three Asia-focused secondaries vehicles, seeking just $300mn in capital collectively.
Of the secondaries funds seeking capital, there are four dedicated real estate vehicles, targeting an aggregate $5.6bn. There is also one infrastructure secondaries vehicle in market: Stafford Capital Partner’s Stafford Infrastructure
Secondaries Fund II is seeking $276mn for investment.
The largest secondaries vehicle currently in market is Lexington Capital Partners IX which is seeking $12bn (Fig. 8); if this target
is successfully met, the amount will surpass the previous record held by a secondaries vehicle.
FUNDS IN MARKET
3228
22
32
44
3734
26 27
17
28
38
21
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Apr-18
No. of Funds Raising Aggregate Capital Targeted ($bn)
Source: Preqin
Fig. 5: Secondaries Funds in Market over Time, 2013 - 2018 (As at April 2018)
71%86%
21%
13%9%1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
No. of Funds Raising
Aggregate Capital Targeted ($bn)
Asia
Europe
North America
Source: Preqin
Prop
ortio
n of
Tot
al
Fig. 6: Secondaries Funds in Market by Primary Geographic Focus
85% 80%
12% 19%
3% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
No. of Funds Raising
Aggregate CapitalTargeted ($bn)
Infrastructure
Real Estate
Private Equity
Source: Preqin
Fig. 7: Secondaries Funds in Market by Fund Type
Fig. 8: Largest Secondaries Funds in Market (As at April 2018)
Fund Firm Firm Location Target Size (mn) Fund Type Fund Status
Lexington Capital Partners IX Lexington Partners US 12,000 USD Private Equity Secondaries Raising
Landmark Equity Partners XVI Landmark Partners US 4,000 USD Private Equity Secondaries First Close
Landmark Real Estate Fund VIII Landmark Partners US 2,000 USD Real Estate Secondaries Raising
Partners Group Real Estate Secondary 2017 Partners Group Switzerland 2,000 USD Real Estate Secondaries First Close
Pomona Capital IX Pomona Capital US 1,750 USD Private Equity Secondaries Raising
Source: Preqin
Prop
ortio
n of
Tot
al
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76%70%
27%
11% 14% 11%
82% 79%
27%
15% 12%3%
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Euro
pe
Asia
Aust
rala
sia
MEN
A
Latin
Am
eric
a
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afr
ica
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
2016
2017
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2017 - 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Seller Location
Fig. 11: Location of Sellers from Which Buyers Bought Fund Interests on the Secondary Market, 2016 vs. 2017
76%
49%
59%
49% 43%
16%
24%19%
11%
59%54% 51% 51%
30%
19% 16% 14% 14%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Mid
-Mar
ket
Buy
out
Vent
ure
Capi
tal
Smal
l Buy
out
Gro
wth
Larg
e Bu
yout
Priv
ate
Deb
t
Nat
ural
Res
ourc
es/
Ener
gy
Real
Est
ate
Infr
astr
uctu
re
2016
2017
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2017 - 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fund Type
Fig. 12: Funds Purchased on the Secondary Market by Type, 2016 vs. 2017
Preqin’s survey of secondary market buyers asked respondents to identify
the perceived motivations for investors selling vehicles on the secondary market in 2017. As shown in Fig. 9, portfolio management (cited by 82% of respondents) and liquidity (the desire to realize capital from mature funds – cited by 71%) remain the main factors for investors in the decision to utilize the secondary market to sell, as they were in the 2017 survey.
Respondents were also asked to indicate which firm types they bought interests from on the secondary market in 2017. As was the case in 2017’s survey, family offices
were the main supplier of deal flow, with 69% of respondents indicating they had bought from this investor type in 2017 (Fig. 10).
North America continues to dominate secondary market activity, with 82% of respondents indicating they had bought interests from investors based there in 2017 (Fig. 11). The proportion of respondents that bought interests from Europe-based investors rose from 70% in 2016 to 79% in 2017, but the proportion of respondents buying from MENA- and Latin America-based investors fell from the previous year.
Over half of respondents bought interests in small and mid-market buyout funds on the secondary market in 2017 (Fig. 12); however, the proportion buying mid-market buyout funds has declined from 76% in 2016 to 59% in 2017. As the market continues to cater for the needs of investors diversifying their portfolio outside of private equity funds, the proportion of respondents buying interests in infrastructure funds has increased from 11% in 2016 to 14% in 2017, and for private debt funds the proportion has risen from 16% to 19% over the same period.
SELLERS
74%69%
54%
29% 29%
82%
71%
38%
12% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Port
folio
Man
agem
ent
Liqu
idity
Chan
ge in
Stra
tegy
Fund
Perf
orm
ance
Regu
latio
n
2016
2017
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2017 - 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fig. 9: Sellers’ Main Motivations for Selling Fund Interests on the Secondary Market According to Buyers, 2016 vs. 2017
66%
40%
29%37%
17%
34% 31%
20%14%
69%
44%38%
38%
34% 34%28% 22%
19%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Fam
ily O
ffice
Bank
/Inve
stm
ent
Ban
k
Priv
ate
Sect
orPe
nsio
n Fu
nd
Publ
icPe
nsio
n Fu
nd
Fund
of
Fund
s/G
P
Foun
datio
n
Endo
wm
ent P
lan
Insu
ranc
e C
ompa
ny
Sove
reig
nW
ealth
Fun
d
2016
2017
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2017 - 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Firm Type
Fig. 10: Firm Types from Which Buyers Bought Fund Interests on the Secondary Market, 2016 vs. 2017
© Preqin Ltd. 2018 / www.preqin.com6
PREQIN SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, Q1 2018
The majority (85%) of secondary buyers indicated they had been sold funds of vintage 2009 or later (Fig. 13), perhaps illustrating the attractiveness of these funds due to the potential upside of having more time to mature. Mature funds of eight years or older, however, are still being purchased; half of respondents bought 2007/2008 vintage funds in 2017.
Preqin’s researchers maintain regular contact with investors to find out their plans for the secondary market. As at
the end of Q1 2018, Preqin has identified 851 firms that are open to selling fund interests on the secondary market in the next 12-24 months. This figure has increased from 731 investors at the end of Q1 2017. As can be seen in Fig. 14, these potential sellers represent a diverse group of investors, including public and private sector pension funds and private equity fund of funds managers. The expected sellers are concentrated in North America (41%) and Europe (39%), with expected sellers also identified in Asia (10%) and Rest
of World (9%) – including investors based in Australia, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates (Fig. 15).
The majority (60%) expect to sell buyout funds, and 40% intend to sell venture capital funds, as shown in Fig. 16. However, such a diverse pool of firms will potentially bring a variety of funds to market.
41%39%
10% 10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
North America Europe Asia Rest of World
Source: Preqin
Prop
ortio
n of
Sel
lers
Seller Location
Fig. 15: Expected Secondary Market Sellers in the Next 12-24 Months by Location
60%
40%
29%24%
19% 18% 18%12%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Buyo
ut
Vent
ure
Capi
tal
Real
Est
ate
Priv
ate
Deb
t
Gro
wth
Fund
of F
unds
Seco
ndar
ies
Infr
astr
uctu
re
Nat
ural
Res
ourc
es
Source: Preqin
Prop
ortio
n of
Sel
lers
Fig. 16: Fund Types to be Sold by Expected Secondary Sellers in the Next 12-24 Months
32% 32% 35%
50% 50%
41%
85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2004and Older
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009Onwards
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Fun
ds
Vintage Year
Fig. 13: Funds Sold to Buyers on the Secondary Market in 2017 by Vintage Year
2%2%
3%5%5%
6%6%
8%9%9%
11%13%13%
Secondary Fund of Funds ManagerGovernment Agency
Investment CompanyWealth Manager
Bank/Investment BankFoundation
Endowment PlanAsset Manager
Insurance CompanyFamily Office
Private Sector Pension FundPrivate Equity Fund of Funds Manager
Public Pension Fund
0% 5% 10% 15%
Source: Preqin
Proportion of Sellers
Fig. 14: Expected Secondary Market Sellers in the Next 12-24 Months by Firm Type
Fund Type
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By all accounts, 2017 was a record year for the secondary market. When asked
about their overall transaction activity, 59% of respondents indicated they had spent more on secondary transactions in 2017 compared to 2016 (Fig. 17).
A sample of secondary transactions completed in Q1 2018 are shown in Fig. 18. The quarter saw the completion of a transaction that restructured three vehicles managed by Peru-based fund manager Enfoca investiones. The transaction, which had Goldman Sachs AIMS Private Equity as a buyer, is the first of its kind in Latin America, a region where GP-led secondary transactions are on the rise. Survey respondents were asked about their involvement in such deals in 2017 and, as can be seen in Fig. 19, 79% of buyers indicated they had completed a fund restructuring transaction in 2017, up from 62% in 2016.
Sixty-one percent of respondents indicated they had relied on secondary intermediaries for at least part of their completed deal flow in 2017, showing that
intermediaries remain an important aspect of the market (Fig. 20).
TRANSACTIONS
48%
62%
34%
17%21%
79%
36%
11%
TenderOffer
FundRestructuring
StapledSecondary
GPSpin-out
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2016
2017
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2017 - 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fig. 19: Buyers Completing Non-Traditional Secondary Transactions, 2016 vs. 2017
39%
16%
8%
16%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
None Up to 25% 26-50% 51-75% 76-100%
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Proportion of Total Value Sourced from Intermediaries
Fig. 20: Proportion of the Total Value of Secondary Transactions Completed in 2017 Sourced from Intermediaries
Fig. 18: Sample Secondary Transactions Completed in Q1 2018
Seller Buyer(s) Fund(s) Sold Transaction Type
UndisclosedAFP Integra, AFP Prima, AFP ProFuturo, CPP Investment Board, Goldman Sachs
AIMS Private Equity
Enfoca Descubridor 1, Enfoca Descubridor 2, Enfoca Discovery 1 Fund Restructuring
Horsley Bridge Partners Strategic Partners Fund SolutionsApax Europe VI, Apax Europe VII, Litorina Kapital
Fund IV, Segulah III, Segulah IV, Terra Firma Capital Partners II
Fund Portfolio Sale
BlackRock Private Equity Partners HarbourVest Partners Macquarie European Infrastructure Fund II Partial Sale
Pictet Alternative Advisors Undisclosed European Secondary Opportunities II Sole Fund Interest
Kaiser Permanente Pension Plan Laborers Pension Trust Fund for Northern California Infracapital Partners II, Pacific Road Resources Fund II Fund Portfolio Sale
Source: Preqin
23%
36%
21%
8%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
SignificantlyIncreased
SlightlyIncreased
NoChange
SignificantlyDecreased
Slightly Decreased
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Fig. 17: Change in Total Value of Secondary Transactions Completed by Buyers from 2016 to 2017
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
© Preqin Ltd. 2018 / www.preqin.com8
PREQIN SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, Q1 2018
Recent strong fundraising and record dry powder levels have created a
very competitive deal environment. Respondents to Preqin’s secondary fund manager survey were asked for their observations on the level of competition for deals in 2017 compared to 2016: the majority (61%) indicated they had observed more competition (Fig. 21).
The perceived increase in competition is a sentiment reflected in pricing: at least half
of respondents observed higher pricing for small, mid-market and large buyout funds in 2017 compared to 2016 (Fig. 22). The majority of respondents also observed higher prices for growth and infrastructure funds on the secondary market.
Respondents were also asked to indicate the average price paid in 2017 for various fund types. As shown in Fig. 23, the highest average price tags are attached to large buyout vehicles, at 94% of NAV. Mid-market
buyout funds were bought, on average, at 92% of NAV, and venture capital funds at 80% of NAV. Despite the higher prices observed in 2017, returns expectations for deals completed that year remain broadly similar to that for deals completed in 2016: the majority of respondents (72%) anticipate multiples of 1.3-1.8x, a similar proportion for 2016 (77%, Fig. 24).
PRICING
50% 54%70%
52%32% 33%
60%
23% 27%
50% 46%25%
44%
55% 58%
33%
69% 60%
5% 4% 14% 8% 7% 8% 13%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%Sm
all B
uyou
t
Mid
-Mar
ket
Buy
out
Larg
e Bu
yout
Gro
wth
Vent
ure
Capi
tal
Real
Est
ate
Infr
astr
uctu
re
Priv
ate
Deb
t
Nat
ural
Res
ourc
es/
Ener
gy
Lower
No Change
Higher
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fund Type
Fig. 22: Change in Secondary Market Pricing from 2016 to 2017 According to Fund Managers by Fund Type
94%92%
86% 85%
80%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Larg
eBu
yout
Mid
-Mar
ket
Buy
out
Gro
wth
Smal
lBu
yout
Vent
ure
Capi
tal
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Aver
age
Pric
e Pa
id (A
s a
% o
f NAV
)
Fund Type
Fig. 23: Average Price Paid (As a % of NAV) for Secondaries Funds Purchased in 2017 by Fund Type
23%
38%
33%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
SignificantlyIncreased
SlightlyIncreased
No Change SignificantlyDecreased
SlightlyDecreased
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fig. 21: Change in Level of Competition for Deals from 2017 to 2018 According to Secondary Fund Managers
3%
43%
34%
20%
38%34%
28%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Less than1.0x
1.0-1.2x 1.3-1.5x 1.6-1.8x 1.9x orMore
2016
2017
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fig. 24: Net Multiples Expected from Deals Completed, 2016 vs. 2017
Expected Net Multiple
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As seen in Fig. 25, secondaries funds continue to be seen as a safe
investment: only two vintages (2006 and 2009) in the 11 vintage years shown have a negative minimum IRR, and, of all secondaries vehicles, just three currently have a negative minimum IRR.
Secondaries funds typically have shorter holding periods, and, with funds purchased at discounts, provide attractive IRRs relative to other asset classes. This is illustrated in Fig. 26, which shows that median net IRRs for secondaries vehicles exceed the average private capital median net IRR for 2007 vintages onwards. Furthermore, Fig. 2 shows that secondaries funds have higher median net multiples than the average for all private capital funds for vintages 2008 and onwards.
PERFORMANCE
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Secondaries
All PrivateCapital
Source: Preqin
Med
ian
Net
Mul
tiple
(X)
Vintage Year
Fig. 27: Median Net Multiples by Vintage Year: Secondaries Funds vs. Private Capital Funds
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Secondaries
All PrivateCapital
Source: Preqin
Med
ian
Net
IRR
sinc
e In
cept
ion
Vintage Year
Fig. 26: Median Net IRRs by Vintage Year: Secondaries vs. Private Capital Funds
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
MaximumNet IRR
Median NetIRR
MinimumNet IRR
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Fig. 25: Maximum, Median and Minimum Net IRRs of Secondaries Funds by Vintage Year
Vintage Year
Med
ian
Net
IRR
sinc
e In
cept
ion
© Preqin Ltd. 2018 / www.preqin.com10
PREQIN SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, Q1 2018
The majority (60%) of respondents expect to be involved in more
secondary transactions in 2018 than in 2017 (Fig. 28) which, given that 2017 was a record year, bodes well for secondary transaction activity in the year ahead. Estimates for the total value of secondary transactions are shown in Fig. 29, which reveals that 41% of respondents are anticipating aggregate transaction activity of $45bn or more in 2018.
Respondents were asked to qualify these estimates by indicating which factors might stimulate secondary activity in 2018, with 26% citing pricing and 19% citing strong public market performance, which translates to better valuations for privately held assets (Fig. 30). Other factors cited included investors’ portfolio management needs as well as the desire to obtain liquidity from mature vehicles.
Respondents were also asked to indicate what trends they expected to see in 2018, and a noteworthy 42% expect to see more fund restructurings occurring (Fig. 31).
OUTLOOK FOR 2018
7%
7%
7%
11%
15%
19%
26%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Macro-economic Factors
Secondaries Dry Powder
Availability of Leverage
Liquidity/UnrealizedAssets in Mature Funds
PortfolioManagement Needs
Public MarketPerformance
Pricing
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018Proportion of Respondents
Fig. 30: Fund Manager Views on Which Factors Will Influence Secondary Transaction Volume in 2018
8%
21%
42%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Incr
ease
dD
eal V
olum
e
Incr
ease
dPr
icin
g
Mor
e Fu
nd R
estr
uctu
ring
s
Incr
ease
d U
se o
f Lev
erag
e
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fig. 31: Fund Managers’ Expected Trends in the Secondary Market in 2018
21%
39%
32%
3%5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
SignificantlyMore
Slightly More
No Change Significantly Less
Slightly Less
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fig. 28: Fund Managers’ Expected Total Value of Secondary Transactions Completed in 2018 Compared to 2017
3%
12% 12%
32%
41%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Less than $30bn
$30-34bn $35-39bn $40-44bn $45bnor More
Source: Preqin Secondary Fund Manager Survey, January 2018
Prop
ortio
n of
Res
pond
ents
Fig. 29: Fund Managers’ Estimated Total Secondary Market Value for Full-Year 2018
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PREQINSECONDARY MARKET UPDATE
Q1 2018