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Dr Graeme Atherton & Dr Tuba MazhariThursday 20 September 2018

Preparing for hyper-diversity: London’s student population in 2030

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Background

u What makes the educational landscape in London different?

u Pre-existing and concurrent evidence for hyper-diversity, changing magnitude of inequalities in educational outcomes, by socio-demographics, for London-domiciled students.

u Development of diversity

u Policy implications

Hyper-diversity in primary education, London1

(1) Greater London Authority ‘Annual education report 2017’ available at: https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/final_epi_edits_design_ final_gla_annual_report_2017_0.pdf (Accessed September 2018)

Hyper-diversity in secondary education, London1

(1) Greater London Authority ‘Annual education report 2017’ available at: https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/final_epi_edits_design_ final_gla_annual_report_2017_0.pdf (Accessed September 2018)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Nu

mb

er

of

stu

de

nts

Asian or Asian British - Bangladeshi Asian or Asian British - Indian Asian or Asian British - Pakistani Black or Black Briti sh - African

Black or Black Briti sh - Caribbean Chinese Other (including mixed) Other Asian background

Other Black background Unknown (including non-UK) White

Hyper-diversity in higher education, London2

(2) Tindell, G; Weeden, S, Storan J (2017) ‘The Higher Education Journey of Young London Residents’, Available at: https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/our-key-themes/children-and-young-people/14-19-young-peoples-education-and-skills/ypes-0 (Accessed September 2018)

Hyper-diversity in higher education, London3

(3) Department for Education (2017) ‘Widening participation in Higher Education’

Young HE participation by region

HEFCE (2013) ‘Trends in young participation in higher education’ – Available at http://www.hefce.ac.uk/media/hefce/content/pubs/2013/201328/HEFCE_2013_28.pdf (Accessed September 2018)

London leads the way in education

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London leads the way in education

Education stage Outcome measure London advantage

Age 5 Good level of development 71.2% in London versus 69.3% nationally - 2016

Age 7 Expected standard of reading Pupils outperforming national average in most local authorities in London - 2016

Age 11 Expected standard of achievement

59% in London versus 53% nationally - 2016

GCSE outcomes Attainment 8 51.9 in London versus 50.1 nationally – 2016

A-levels AAB+ (at least two facilitating subjects)

Higher than all but one region16.4% in London versus 17.4%(South East)

% of pupils meeting expected standard throughout educational career,by socioeconomic position.

(1) Early years (2016), primary school (2016), secondary school (2015), post-16 catch-up (2015), post-16 level 3 (2015), and higher education destinations (2014); by eligibility for free school meals.

London – how well does it lead in education for all?1

London – how well does it lead in education for all?1

(1) Early years (2016), primary school (2016), secondary school (2015), post-16 catch-up (2015), post-16 level 3 (2015), and higher education destinations (2014); by eligibility for free school meals.

(1) Early years (2016), primary school (2016), secondary school (2015), post-16 catch-up (2015), post-16 level 3 (2015), and higher education destinations (2014); by eligibility for free school meals.

London – how well does it lead in education for all?1

(1) Early years (2016), primary school (2016), secondary school (2015), post-16 catch-up (2015), post-16 level 3 (2015), and higher education destinations (2014); by eligibility for free school meals.

London – how well does it lead in education for all?1

(1) Early years (2016), primary school (2016), secondary school (2015), post-16 catch-up (2015), post-16 level 3 (2015), and higher education destinations (2014); by eligibility for free school meals.

London – how well does it lead in education for all?1

HE entry by ethnicity, between 2008 and 20162

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Num

ber o

f stu

dent

s

Asian or Asian British - Bangladeshi Asian or Asian British - Indian Asian or Asian British - Pakistani Black or Black Briti sh - African

Black or Black Briti sh - Caribbean Chinese Other (including mixed) Other Asian background

Other Black background Unknown (including non-UK) White

(2) Tindell, G; Weeden, S, Storan J (2017) ‘The Higher Education Journey of Young London Residents’, Available at: https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/our-key-themes/children-and-young-people/14-19-young-peoples-education-and-skills/ypes-0 (Accessed September 2018)

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Aimu Explore development of diversity over the next decade

u Composition of student body

u Highlighting the importance of appropriate action

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Methods u Information for projections – base numbers, demographics and

participation rate

u Data Sources – GLA, HESA, DFE

Projected student numbers (aged 18-24, domiciled in London) based on expected changes in demography between 2016-2030

Projected student numbers (aged 18-24, domiciled in London) based on expected changes in HE and demography between 2016-2030

The changing student composition of HE in London

HE participation amongst 18-24 year olds (by socioeconomic position) from London in 2030 combining demographic change and HE participation rate

Projected Proportion of FSM eligible student from London entering HE by 25 by 2030 by inner and outer London

Department for Education (2017) ‘Widening participation in Higher Education’

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Projections

u Younger students entering HE will increase by over 50% by 2030

u Almost 3/4of the students will be from BAME backgrounds

u Over 50,000 will be the first in the family to enter HE

u Students entering HE eligible for free school meals may approach 100% from some parts of London.

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Deterrents?

u Alternative qualifications?

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Enhancers?

u London’s untapped potential

u Reduced / abolished tuition fees

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Projections

u Younger students entering HE will increase by over 50% by 2030

u Almost 3/4of the students will be from BAME backgrounds

u Over 50,000 will be the first in the family to enter HE

u Students entering HE eligible for free school meals may approach 100% from some parts of London.