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1 premiumsV Handelsbanken Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO 11 June 2012

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Page 1: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

1

premiumsV

HandelsbankenNordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar

Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO

11 June 2012

Page 2: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

2

Disclaimer

Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by

and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements (other than statements of

historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and

future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”,

“plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.

A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking

statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the

competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or

terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance.

We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect

our future performance and the industry in which we operate.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be

incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as

anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.

We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual

results, except as may be required by law.

Page 3: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

3

Tryg – at a glance

NorwayMarket position #3

Market share 16.4%CR 2011 93.4

DenmarkMarket position #1

Market share 20.8%CR 2011 90.3

SwedenMarket position #5Market share 3.9%

CR 2011 104.9

FinlandMarket share 2.2%

CR 2011 106.2

• Tryg’s history goes back to the 18th century.

• The current Tryg was formed in 2002 by sale of Nordea’s non-life activities – with a continuing strategic partnership.

• Only Non-life insurance in the Nordic area.

• Listed Oct. 2005 on Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen.

• Majority owner : TryghedsGruppen (60%) a mutual foundation rooted in Denmark.

• Turnover 2011: DKK 20.6bn (~EUR 2.8bn).

• CEO: Morten Hübbe.

• 4,318 employees.

Page 4: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

4

Shareholder breakdown

Facts about Tryg

3.19.9

38.4

48.6

Denmark

Norway

Sweden

Finland

9

15

1660

Danish institutional

Non-Danishinstitutional

Smaller shareholders

TryghedsGruppen

9.0

13.7

10.7

6.0 20.1

23.6

12.54.4

Motor - TPL

Motor - casco

Workers' comp.

Health & accident

Liability

Fire & property - private

Fire & property - comm.

Other

Gross premium split by geography - 2011

Percent Percent

Share performance since IPOGross premium split by segments - 2011

Percent

0

50

100

150

200

250

Tryg Euro Insurance Index

200 5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 5: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

5

Structure of the Nordic insurance markets

Other 27.6

Alm. Brand 9.8

Codan 12.5Topdanmark

18

If 5.7

Tryg 20.8Gjensdige

5.6 Sparebank1 11.3

Gjensidige 26.3

If 25.1

Tryg 16.4Other 20.9

Other 16.1

Codan 15.8

If 18.7

Läns-forsäkringar

28.4

Gjensidige 1.2

Moderna 3.9

Folksam 15.4 Fennia 9.7

Tryg 2.2Other 17.6

If 23.9

Pohjola 28.6

Tapiola 18

Percent Percent

Percent Percent

Läns-försäkringar

8.5

Tryg 11.8

Topdanmark 5.3

If 17.4Codan 9.4

Gjensidige 9.1

Other 38.5

Nordic

EUR 21.6bn (as at Q4-10)

Percent

Denmark

DKK 47.6bn/EUR 6.4bn (as at Q1-11)

Norway

NOK 45.6 bn/EUR 5.9bn (as at Q4-11)

Sweden

SEK 63.2bn/EUR 7.0bn (as at Q4-11) Finland

EUR 3.7bn (as at Q4-11)

Page 6: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

6

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

DK and NO - high customer loyalty

Customer retention – private customers

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

House insurance – average price (index 2005 = 100)

Page 7: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

7

Growth Profitability

2002-2004

Growth Profitability

2005-2009

Growth Profitability

2010-2012

• Financial crisis in 2001 • Gearing up for an IPO

• Financial upswing• High returns • Sweden & Finland growth focus

• Financial crisis starting 2008

• Acquisition of Moderna

7

Profitability, profitability and profitability

Page 8: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

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Results 2005 – 2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Combined ratio

ROE after tax

20%

90

Page 9: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

9

7

68

52 6

12 Equities

Real estate

Cov. Bonds

Govt. Bonds

Bank deposits/bonds

High yield

Investments

Investment assets

Low risk investestment strategy

Challenging environment

Total assets – Q1 2012

Percentage

004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Matching - Eliminate interest rate risk

net

Bond yield

Discounting

Page 10: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

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Gross earned premiums

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Growth consumes capital

Capital

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

DKKm

Page 11: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

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6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

TAC S&P A-level Availablecapital

ICA*

D KKm

S&P A-level Buffer (5%) Surplus capital

Capitalisation

9% buffer

• Capital buffer based on Standard & Poor’s

capital model increased to 9% end Q1

2012 and totalled DKK 887m of which the

5% self imposed buffer was DKK 517m.

• Capital buffer based on the Internal

Capital (IC) model increased to 26% end

Q1 2012.

• S&P capital position end Q1 2012

impacted by:

• Higher capital requirement related to

higher market value of investment

assets.

• Strong Q1 2012 result.

26 % buffer

S&P model IC model

* ICA = Individual Capital Assessment

Page 12: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

12

Themes in Tryg

Page 13: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

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Tryg and value creation

Creating a new culture

Claims initiatives

Expenses

Peace-of-mind deliveryROE: 20 %

Combined ratio: 90

Page 14: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

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Create a new culture – balance peace-of-mind deliveries & results

New focused organisation

FocusFrom 20 KPI’s to 5

Price differentiationTime to market

Improved procurement

Strategic review Finland

Cost-efficiency

Page 15: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

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Weather claims - a focus area

2011

New reinsurance

feature

2012Feb July Aug Nov DecJune

Denmark cloudbursts

Storm ’Dagmar’

Copenhagen cloudburst

Storm ’Berit’

Norway floods

Denmark storm

Page 16: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

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523

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Average 2006-09

Q1-Q4 2010 Q1-Q4 2011

813 858

Large and weather claims

• Large claims gross amounted to DKK 858m in 2011 against DKK 813m in 2010.

• Large claims net amounted to DKK 546m in 2011 against DKK 709m in 2010.

Large claims, gross DKKm

Expected full year level 2012

Weather claims, DKKm

290142

1,589

192

828878

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Aver. 2006-09 2010(Gross) 2010(Net) 2011(Gross) 2011(Net)

1,168

970

554

Expected full year level 2012. Winter and storm/cloudburst gross

Winter claims

Storm/cloudburst

Page 17: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

17

Summary

Ambitious targets

Combined ratio: 90ROE 20 %

But on track to deliver…

Page 18: premiumsV - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/presentations/2012.06.11 Tryg... · 2012-06-11  · Handelsbanken. Nordic Mid/Small Cap Seminar. Tor Magne Lønnum - CFO. 11 June 2012

Questions?