Colin ThriftColin Thrift

2014 Construction CPM 2014 Construction CPM Conference Conference Orlando, FlOrlando, FlJanuary 23January 23rdrd, 2014, 2014

Predicting the Unpredictable? Predicting the Unpredictable? ……..a ..a CMCM’’ss point of point of

view view

Founded in 1873, 140 Years Continuously Family Owned and Managed

4th Generation Family Member in Leadership

$4 Billion in Revenue in 2009 update

2,000 Employees

5th Largest CM at Risk (as ranked by ENR)

GilbaneGilbane OverviewOverview

Understand the Schedule Risk Analysis process

How SRA can help you mitigate impacts to your project schedule & cost

Understand why a critical path analysis is not enough

Seminar Goal Today Seminar Goal Today

Schedule risk are unpredictable events and time constraints that put the on time completion of your project at in jeopardy.

Schedule risk can dramatically increase the chances of a timely, cost-efficient project completion

Schedule risk threatens the schedule and cost throughout the life of the project

What is Schedule Risk?What is Schedule Risk?

WHY DO WE NEED SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS?

QUESTIONQUESTION

Why SRA Why SRA -- Reason #1 Change!Reason #1 Change!

Changing ApproachChanging Approach

Industry ChangesIndustry Changes

• BIM & Virtual Design • Client expectations • Accessible risk software• The new norm –

ENR (56% of construction)

Have you ever asked yourself the following?

Why should I conduct a Schedule Risk Analysis when I already have a great critical path schedule?

How do I replace my “gut-feeling” about the outcome of the project?

Why do I lack confidence that the monthly report does not capture the true health of the project?

Should I be worried that the team is overlooking a potential risk, and that it will be identified too late to mitigate?

How can I get a true schedule assessment of the change request?

Why SRA Why SRA -- Reason #2 YOU!Reason #2 YOU!

What is Risk?What is Risk?

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld

Finding RiskFinding Risk

The greater the uncertainties and constraints, the greater the risk to the successful outcome of a project.

Risks in constructionRisks in construction

long lead procurement, permits, budget vs. design constraints, program changes, value engineering

weather, resources, site remediation

escalation, customs

legislation, legal issues

Trade disputes, personalities, new technology

………………..and on and on

The SRA ProcessThe SRA Process

Step 1 – Schedule scope review + quality review

Step 2 – Identifying project risk

Step 3 – Mitigation of risk

– Typical time to do SRA is 1-2 days

When:

Program - Design Phase

Construction GMP Baseline

Quarterly

The Project

Expansion and renovation of an existing clinical manufacturing facility to comply with various federal and manufacturing bio safety and security guidelines.

SRA conducted at CM Baseline submission

Case study #1 Case study #1 -- Manufacturing FacilityManufacturing Facility

Project Schedule Assessment:

The first step is the assessment of the project schedule to determine if the plan accurately represents the scope of work, and necessary adjustments

Sample of adjustments made:

Long Lead Equipment activities did not have successors.

Inaccurate assumptions – piping follows ceiling install

No equipment startup / permanent power relationship

Start of Test and Balancing was inaccurate

Case study #1 Case study #1 -- Schedule AssessmentSchedule Assessment

Case study #1 Case study #1 –– Team Risk AssessmentTeam Risk Assessment

Results:

CPM schedule showed an on-time completion

Adjusted CPM had 2 weeks overrun

SRA predicted 4 weeks overrun

Team Risk Discussion:

Installation of HVAC rough-in interstitial duct

Clean room ceiling framing

Chicago ceiling > light fixtures

Door security trim > test & balance

Case study #1 Case study #1 -- Discussing RiskDiscussing Risk

Case study #1 Case study #1 -- Discussing RiskDiscussing Risk

Recommendations

Project contingency approach vs. aggressive schedule

Enhanced schedule – Work Areas/ Phasing / Systems

Question schedule assumptions/ ties & resources

Commissioning/ validation approach

Handling changes and issues – TIA

Outcome

CM implemented all recommendations

Open client/ CM risk discussions

Project did complete on time

Case study #1 Case study #1 -- RecommendationsRecommendations

First SRA at GMP Baseline (18 months remaining)

– Foundations were 50% completed– CPM had an on-time completion– SRA predicted 3-4 week over-run

– Risk Identified:o Achieving “building tight”o Steel erection sequenceo Auditorium & Gymnasium detail

Case Study #2 Case Study #2 -- High SchoolHigh School

Replace generic submittal procurement with specific façade components.

Clarify the definition of “building tight” & approach

Expand façade sequence, identify key locations where building tight can be achieved earlier than

Case Study #2 Case Study #2 -- SRA RecommendationsSRA Recommendations

Accelerate steel - benefits versus cost

Focus on deck “turn-over” and not steel erection

Mitigate roof mechanical/steel detailing coordination

Consider 4D steel erection/façade model

Case study #2 Case study #2 -- RecommendationsRecommendations

Team to confirm perimeter CMU / SOG logic.

Conduct focused Auditorium & Gymnasium IPS

Breakdown gymnasium floor installation (receive/store/installation)

Add interior climate control approach

SRA Conclusion at Baseline– Potential 3-4 week over-run– Three primary risk area (Steel, Building Tight,

Gym/Auditorium)– Focused recommendations & action plan

Case Study #2 Case Study #2 -- RecommendationsRecommendations

Follow-up SRA – Conducted 5 months later– Steel was almost at completion– SRA focused on evaluating scenarios

Case study #2 Case study #2 –– FollowFollow--up SRAup SRA

The interview processThe interview process

Scenario 1 – All schedule activities assumed “realistic”

Scenario 2 – All schedule activities assumed “aggressive”

Scenario 3 – Façade assumed “very aggressive”

Scenario 4 – Plumbing & Electrical activities assumed “very aggressive”

Scenario 5 – Area B (Gymnasium) activities assumed “very aggressive”

Case Study #2 Case Study #2 -- The SRA ScenariosThe SRA Scenarios

Action – team implemented all recommendations

Zero cost to project $$$$

Potential 3-4 week early completion

6-8 weeks improvement

Note: CPM remained at zero float through-out

Case study #2 Case study #2 -- Outcome to dateOutcome to date

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

Medical Center is an 11-story, 1,200,000-square-foot

This facility has 28 operating rooms, 176 medical/surgical and ICU beds, 128 recovery rooms, interventional radiology, procedure rooms, staff training facilities, main kitchen, ancillary departments, clinical offices, support office, sterile processing, and pharmacy and public areas.

Case study #3 Case study #3 -- Medical CenterMedical Center

Project in the last 8 months of construction

Current CPM schedule shows two-weeks over-run

SRA predicted 2 months over-run

Risk Found:

Punchlist > City Inspections > Substantial Completion

Life Safety Inspections > Substantial Completion

Hot Water Systems > HW Balancing > HW Owner Testing > Substantial Completion

Air TAB (AHU’s) > AHU Owner Testing > Substantial Completion

Case study #3 Case study #3 -- Predicting the outcomePredicting the outcome

Case study #3 Case study #3 -- Identifying riskIdentifying risk

Team buy-in of closeout procedure/ sequence

Confirm City Inspections approach

Determine A/E punch list approach

Mitigating “owner” risk

Mechanical contractor bonding performance issues

Balancing schedule required accelerated 6-8 weeks representing almost a 40% acceleration in the overall balancing sequence duration.

Case study #3 Case study #3 -- Discussing RiskDiscussing Risk

Outcome– Team on same page– Team assigned specific action– Action plan on risk– Removed “unkowns”– Identified risk outside our control > focus action plans

(unkown unkowns?)

Project Completed on-time

16 hours to do SRA (one day on site, one day doing report)

Case study #3 Case study #3 -- OutcomeOutcome

Explain why & how Schedule Risk Analysis helps mitigate the impact of unpredicted threats to your project schedule.

Demonstrate, through case-studies, the benefits of following specific steps to proactively manage schedule risk and dramatically increase the chances of a timely, cost-efficient project completion.

Our Seminar Goal Today Our Seminar Goal Today

HOWThree step process (Quality/Risk/Mitigate)

WHYChanging World, good business practice, software……Risk exists need a proactive approach not reactive

SRA

Improves confidence by identifying risk

Asks the right questions

Team conversations

ALL ABOUT THE DIALOGUE - NOT STATISTICAL CURVE

ConclusionConclusion