# Predicting Success

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Predicting Success. Kris Campbell and Dan Kernler Elgin Community College Elgin, IL. Want to follow along on your device? Download the presentation: http://tinyurl.com/AMATYC-S178. Outline. Part 1: Background - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Predicting SuccessKris Campbell and Dan KernlerElgin Community CollegeElgin, ILWant to follow along on your device? Download the presentation: http://tinyurl.com/AMATYC-S178Dan1OutlinePart 1: BackgroundPart 2: Initial question Do placement scores, ACT Math sub-scores, and HS GPA predict success in Intermediate Algebra?Part 3: Do they predict success at the transfer level?Part 4: What effect does high school coursework have on placement and success?Dan2Part 1: Background3Elgin Community College (ECC)18,088 students (Fall 2013)69% part-timeAverage age is 28

Kris a background of ECC is valuable, because other populations may not have similar results4Background CurriculumMth090Pre-AlgebraMth099

CombinedBasic &Intermediate AlgebraMth096Basic AlgebraMth098Intermediate AlgebraMth097GeometryTransfer Level Math CoursesKris As a frame of reference. Not every college/state has this same sequence. We should also note that until recently, all transfer level courses in Illinois had to have at least an Intermediate Algebra pre-requisite, which is why we started our investigation there.5Background CurriculumDevelopmental Math CoursesMth101QuantitativeLiteracyMth102Gen. Ed.StatisticsMth110Math for Elem.Teach. IMth112College AlgebraMth113Math for Elem.Teaching IIMth114TrigonometryMth126Calc. for BusinessMth120Statistics IMth125Finite MathMth133Calculus IKris Emphasize the four difference entry-level transfer courses. We have not investigated other courses, primarily because our largest-enrolled courses are the developmental sequence (roughly have of our students) and the four entry-level transfer courses.6Background PlacementCOMPASS ExamWritten by ACTCalculators allowedCan be retaken onceCan place students up through Calculus I4 DomainsBranchingPre-AlgebraCollege AlgebraTrigonometryAlgebraStartKris Some use Accuplacer, so this background is valuable. Also emphasize the branching nature of the test. If you dont do well on the initial Algebra portion, you drop down to Pre-Algebra and can never improve your score.7College ReadyArithmeticPre-AlgebraBasicAlgebra0-2021-4344-100ArithmeticPre-AlgebraBasicAlgebraCollege ReadyBasicAlgebraInt. AlgebraCollege Ready0-3238-5455-10033-37Combined Basic & Int. AlgebraBackground PlacementPre-AlgebraAlgebraCollege AlgebraKris? This slide is to explain why we are focusing on the COMPASS Algebra domain.8Part 2: Initial Question9Background Initial DataNew students, all recent high school graduatesFall 2008, 2009, and 2010 onlyValid placementHighest COMPASS score onlyInitially focused on Intermediate Algebra onlyInitial analysis considered only three districts due to an extreme weighting system in the fourthDan10MethodBinomial logistic regression using COMPASS score as predictor for course success (C or better)Add ACT Math sub-score and HS Cumulative GPA to regression modelDan11ResultsCOMPASS score was a statistically significant predictor.High school GPA significantly and dramatically increased the accuracy of the prediction of success.ACT Math sub-score did not have a unique contribution to the model.Dan12

COMPASS only (Algebra domain)ResultsCOMPASS alone is a significant predictor (p