Chris Eske Analytics Specialist APAC

Feb 2017

Predicting Student Success

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Answering one Critical Question Now

• What is the likelihood that a student will achieve a C or better grade?

• What is likelihood that a student will attend class next week?

Retention Rates in Australia

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• University of Divinity 95.5%

• XXXX University 73%

Student Success Return on Investment Calculator Current Full Time Student Numbers 25,000 Income per Student per annum $13,566*Current Retention Rate 95.00% Target Retention Rate 96.00% Increased Revenue $6,783,000 Note: Assumes two years of lost revenue per unsuccessful student

*Derived from Higher Education Research, Facts and Figures November 2015

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Blackboard Predict

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Predictive modeling overview

ProblemWhat is the question you are trying to answer?

IngestAggregate the data from multiple sources

ModelingTurn the data into valuable info (answer the question)

DistributePut the valuable info in the hands of those who can act on it

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Blackboard Predict

How it works• Aggregate student activity data

• Present risk report to faculty/advisors

Predictive Model• Current class activity from LMS

• Past student information from SIS

• Can include data from other sources: Portfolio, ebook/content, response systems

LMS/SIS

Alerts & reports

ActivityData analysis

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Sample model outputFeatures and weights

Week Zero Model Weekly Model

Current GPACourse add weeks prior

Transfer creditsEFC

Percent of classes passedEthnicity

Class loadAcademic year

Course modality

.00 .02 .04 .06 .08 .10 .12 .14 .16

Earned over attempted

Number of page views

Earned over possible

Percent of classes passed

Days since last page view

Posts to faculty

.00 .10 .20 .30 .40

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Who could intervene?

InstructorChannelLMS – visualizations

MessageProvide triage/assistance to the students who are at risk

StudentChannelLMS – visualizations

MessageCompare to average; project grades

Advisor/CounselorChannelCRM – tasksorPortal – visualizations

MessageThese are your students who need the most help

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Faculty and students Advisors (with CRM) Advisors (Portal)

Send results to the user

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Advisor dashboard

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Predict – a three month go live