PREDICTING CHEMISTRY1

Bmw a municipal institution, the University of Toledo has been experiencing a problem common to all public colleges and universities-namely, that recent years have increased the quantity but not the quality of our students. Chemistry departments of such universities have been disturbed by the large number of failures and withdrawals in the first semester of general chemistry, which results in considerable imbalance in the use of laboratory facilities and the scheduling of teaching loads between the first and second semesters. Previous reports to the Division of Chemical Education indicate that several institutions have met this problem in various ways, some by the use of television to de- crease the staff needed in the first semester and others by replacement of first semester laboratory work by demonstrations (1,2,S).

This report concerns the handling of the problem a t the University of Toledo in the general chemistry course for those students who have had one year each of high school algebra and chemistry. This is a four hour course for tn-o semesters, designated as Chemistry 17 and 18.

The significant downward trend in the performance of students in Chemistry 17 prior to 1955 is shown by

TABLE 1 Summary of Chamistry 17 Grades

I343 1948 1349 1361 196# 136.9 1964 1366' 1968° 196F % A and B

38.6 24.5 28.2 10.7 10.9 13.1 13.0 18.4 18.0 15.7

% F and D , 14.0 14.4 28.0 20.0 31.1 20.1 34.0 26.0 17.2 17.5

The ~rogramderoribed here has beenincffeot.

Table 1. The decline in A and B grades has been ac- companied by a marked increase in F and Dr grades. While the reasons for dropping are varied, in nearly all cases the student was doing marginal to failing work a t the time of withdrawal. The distribution of C and P grades (P is passing but below average) has remained fairly constant and these are not shown.

The number of failures and drops in recent years would suggest that 20y0 to 30% of our students were not qualiied for the course even though they met the existing requirements. We saw no justification for "watering down" the course content, nor were me willing to lower the standards we had set for course grades. What was needed was a method by which we might predict those stndents who would be likely to

1 Presented before the Division of Chemical Education a t the 133rd Meeting of the American Chemical Society, San Francisco, April, 1958.

VOLUME 35, NO. 10, OCTOBER, 1958

NELSON W. HOVEY and ALBERTINE KROHN University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio

fail Chemistry 17, so that they could be excluded from the course. A study of the type made by Martin (4) was planned in order to select suitable criteria for the prediction of students who would be likely to fail. We realized that no method would be entirely satisfactory because we could not predict motivation and numerous other factors which cause a well qualified student to fail or a poorly qualified student to rise above the ex- pected level. Despite some errors in placement, we felt that much good would be accomplished if most of the students who would fail Chemistry 17 could be steered into other channels.

This study was begun in the fall of 1954 with the administration of the Iowa Chemistry Aptitude Test, Form M, to all stndents enrolled in Chemistry 17. Those who made low scores were permitted to take the regular course with no restrictions. Table 2 shows the grade earned in Chemistry 17 by students in the various test score ranges. It is important to note that of the 18 stndents who scored less than 50, only 2 passed Chemistry 17. (Only 1 of these completed Chemistry 18. The C grade was earned by an older student who had been out of school for several years.)

TABLE 2 Grades in Chemistry 17 Related to Iowa Aptitude Test

Scores

Score No. ronm cases A B C P F 0 7 90 F Fo D D ~

As part of the university testing program, the Ohio State Psychological Examination (O.S.P.E.) was given to all entering students. The scores on this scholastic aptitude test did not show as great a correlation with grades in Chemistry 17 as did the Iowa Aptitude Test scores (see Table 3).

TABLE 3 Grades in Chemistry 17 Related to Ohio State Psychological

Examination O.S.P.E. No.

% ilc cases A B C P P DT % F and Dr

No useful correlation was found between the student's rank in his high school graduating class and his success

507

in Chemistry 17, nor were high school chemistry grades a reliable indication of college chemistry performance. These grades were more meaningful in predicting those students who will make high grades than in predicting those who will fail. Grades from Toledo high schools and other large schools were more meaningful than those from smaller schools. Others have studied these relationships between high school and college performance (6, 6, 7).

The Chemistry Department discussed several sug- gestions as to what might be done with those students who made low scores on the aptitude test. It was felt that extra class sessions would not solve the problem but only add to the burden. Putting these students in with those who had not had high school chemistry was also judged unsatisfactory. It was feared that some students would purposely make low scores hoping to have less competition in the course where high school chemistry was not required. The most suitable plan seemed to be the establishment of a separate course in precollege chemistry in which the students would be required to show satisfactory performance before beiug admitted to the regular course. This course was designated as Chemistry 7. The following reg- ulations were adopted concerning this course:

(1) Beginning in the fall of 1955, all students enrolling in Chemistry 17 would be required to take the Iowa Aptitude Test. Those scoring less than 50 would be transferred to Chemistry 7. Thosescoring between 50 and 60 would be informed that they had about tl fifty-fifty chance of passing Chemistry 17 and could re- main in the regular course or transfer to Chemistry 7. Those scoring above 60 would be allowed to remitinin the regularcourse.

(2) Chemistry 7 would meet two hours weekly for one se- mester. The course would oarry no oredit, hut a grade of C or better would be required for admission to Chemistry 17.

(3) The course would stress those skills known to he necessary for success in chemistry. These include: ability to read with comprehension, facility with simple mathematics, ability to inter- pret observations in the light of prior knowledge, and efficient use of study time. In attempting to teach these skills, material would he drawn from the field of chemistry, but it wonld not he a factual course which could in any sense replace any existing course.

We had no illusions concerning our ability to "save" a large number of these students for careers based on some knowledge of chemistry. Whether they went on to take Chemistry 17 and 18 or whether they decided to avoid chemistry by changing their professional goals, they would have been spared the frustration of trying to take a course beyond their capacity in the first semester a t the university.

The authors also decided to develop a second test which would be given along with the Iowa Aptitude Test in the hope of improving the accuracy with which failures could be predicted. This test, the Toledo Chemistry Achievement Test, was based on questions selected from high school chemistry exam- inations which were provided by local high school teachers.

In the fall of 1955, all Chemistry 17 students were given the Iowa Aptitude Test and the Toledo Chemistry Achievement Test. Only the Iowa Aptitude Test scores were used for placement. Students were enrolled in Chemistry 70r Chemistry 17 according to the regulations previously listed. Table 4 shows the relation between the Iowa Aptitude Test score range and the number of students successfully completing Chemistry 7, 17,

and 18. I t is of interest to note that when students who scored below 50 took Chemistry 7 before taking Chemistry 17, their chances of passing the latter course were almost doubled as compared with those who took Chemistry 17 directly.

TABLE 4 Course Performance in Relation to Iowa Aptitude Tent

Score Range Chemislw 7 Chcmialrv 17 Chemialry 18

Scora No. En- Rn- Rn- % P a d n o ronga caacs rolled Passad rolled Posaed rollad Passed Chcm. 18

Although only the Iowa Aptitude Test scores were used for placement, it was hoped that improved pre- dictions might be obtained by the use of the Toledo Achievement Test scores or a combination of test scores. The correlation coefficients obtained by re- lating the pre-test scores with the grades the students actually earned in Chemistry 17 are shown in Table 5. Table 5 also shows the correlation coefficients between the pre-test scores and the scores earned by these students on the A.C.S. Cooperative General Chemistry Examination, Form M, which was given at the end of Chemistry 18.

TABLE 5 Correlation Coefficients Relating Pre-test Scores with

Performance

Chemistry A.C.S. Test s o w used 17 grade ezam.

Ohio State Psychologies1 Examination 0 .40 . . . Iowa. Aptitude Test 0 . 5 1 0.65 Toledo Chemistry Achievement Test 0 . 5 8 0.63 Iowa Aptitude +Toledo Achievement Test 0 .61 0.74

-

Because of the higher correlation, it was decided to use the combined scores of the Iowa Aptitude and Toledo Chemistry Achievement Tests for placement in the fall of 1956. The combined scores were used as follows: Those scoring 0-99 wonld be required to take Chemistry 7, 10&119 would be given a choice of Chemistry 7 or Chemistry 17, above 120 would take Chemistry 17. Table 6 shows the number of students in each group who completed the respective courses satisfactorily. The figures again indicated that low- scoring students who took and passed Chemistry 7 had a much better chance of passing Chemistry 17 than if they had taken it directly.

TABLE 6 Course Performance in Relation to Iowa Aptitude +

Toledo Achievement Test Score Range CLcmialw 7 Chrmialiu 17 Chcmialrv 18

Score No. En- En- En- % Pamino ronyc cosas rolled Paasad rolled Posscd rolled Passed Chcm. 18

In view of the favorable results obtained, it was decided to continue the testing and placement program on this basis for another year. It was planned to select the most valid items from each test and combine them into a single test which could be administered in one

JOURNAL OF CHEMICAL EDUCATION

hour, rather than to continue to give both tests, which requires two hours.

By means of a pretesting program it is possible to predict failures and withdrawals in the first semester of general chemistry as follows:

% F and 0 7

Low noup 89% Borderline group High group

However, if those in the low group take and pass a course in pre-college chemistry prior to enrollment in

," it is not possible to test motivation.

The exclusion of the low group from direct enroll- ment in Chemistry 17 has had several beneficial effects. The percentage of F and Dr grades has decreased. The percentage of students not completing Chemistry 17 in 1957 was cut to half the number in this category in 1954, the year before the placement program was put into effect. The morale of the better students and of the teaching staff has improved.

The Chemistry Department has benefited in the saving of teaching time. Placing some 50 students in a 2-hour non-laboratory course instead of in a Chour course with 2 laboratories per week has greatly re- lieved the burden on the senior teaching staff, and has made possible a more satisfactory scheduling of labora- tory sections. The first semester of general chemistry is again offered during the second semester and this,

combined with the smaller percentage of students dropping out, has helped to equalize schedules for both semesters.

The testing and placement program in chemistry has helped to focus the attention of the university faculty and administration on the general problem of the poorly prepared student. More stringent re- quirements for entrance to degree colleges are being put into effect, with the establishment of a Foundational Program for those who do not meet minimum standards. This means that within a few years our departmental program may no longer be necessary. Meanwhile, we feel that we are accomplishing our objective with a reasonable degree of success and that we can now devote more of our efforts to the students on the other end of the academic scale.

LITERATURE CITED

(1) SMITH, G. W., J. CREM. EDUC., 33, 257-63 (1956). (2) MORGAN, L. O., W. H. R. SHAW, AND P. D. GARDNER, "Laho-

ratory Instruction by Closed Circuit Television," pre- sented before the Division of Chemical Education a t the 131st Meeting of the American Chemical Society, Miami, April, 1957.

(3) MARQUARDT, D. N., "Laboratory Versu8 Demonstration for the First Semester of General Chemistry," presented before the Division of Chemical Education st the 132nd Meeting of the American Chemical Society, New York, September, 1957.

(4) MARTIN, F. D., J. C ~ M . EDUC., 19, 274-7 (1942). (5) McQUARY, J. P., H. V. WILLIAMS, AND J. E. WILLARD,

J. CHEM. EDUC., 29, 4 6 0 4 (1952). (6) HADLEY, E. H., R. A. SCOTT, AND K. A. VAN LENTE, J.

CHEM. EDUC., 30, 311-3 (1953). (7) BRASTED, R. C., J. CHEM. EDUC., 34,562-5 (1957).

VOLUME 35, NO. 10, OCTOBER, 1958