precision agriculture adoption and profitability: fact vs. myth...
TRANSCRIPT
Precision Agriculture Adoption and
Profitability: Fact vs. Myth beyond Pretty
Maps
Terry Griffin, Ph.D., CCA
Associate Professor - Economics
Dept of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness
2011 InfoAg, Springfield, IL
Precision Ag: On the one hand…
Information-intensive
• Field level data to
make decisions
• Requires additional
data and skill
• IPM, financial records
• Yield monitors
• Soil samples
• VR applications
Embodied-knowledge
• Information purchased in
the form of an input
• Requires minimal
additional data/skill
• Round-up Ready or Bt
• Automated guidance
• On-the-go
sensing:application
8.25
Soybean Farms, 2002
0 20 40 60 80 100
Other uses
Irrigation
Divide crop production
Negotiate new crop lease
Tile drainage
Conduct field experiments
Document yields
Monitor crop moisture
Percent of Farms
Without GPS With GPS
Source: USDA-ARMS Data, Griffin
2009
Cotton Farms, 2003
0 20 40 60 80 100
Other uses
Irrigation
Divide crop production
Negotiate new crop lease
Tile drainage
Conduct field experiments
Document yields
Percent of Farms
Without GPS With GPS
Source: USDA-ARMS Data, Griffin
2009
Corn Farms, 2005
0 20 40 60 80 100
Other uses
Irrigation
Divide crop production
Negotiate new crop lease
Tile drainage
Conduct field experiments
Document yields
Monitor crop moisture
Percent of Farms
Without GPS With GPS
Source: USDA-ARMS Data, Griffin
2009
GPS Adoption by Service Providers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Perc
en
t of
dea
lers
Lightbars Auto Guidance Biotech soybeans
Source: GPS adoption - Whipker and Akridge, 2011
Biotech soybean adoption - USDA NASS
Data Handling – Yield Data
• Begin with “best” data possible
• Remove erroneously measured yield data
– Yield monitor not always able to measure properly
• Adjust observation location
– Flow delays, start & end pass delays
• USDA-ARS Yield Editor (v. 2.0 at InfoAg)
– Takes about 30 minutes
• Yield data correction is becoming automated
Data Handling
Unprocessed yield data
Filtered yield data
Unprocessed yield data
Filtered yield data
Evolution of Spatial Analysis
1. “Eyeballing” of printed maps (non-quantitative)
– Subjective and misleading
– GIS as the ending point
2. Numerical analysis (quantitative)
– Averaging by district, zone, county, other
3. Statistical analysis (quantitative)
– Regression, ANOVA
4. Spatial statistical analysis (quantitative)
– Adapted from
epidemiology, criminology, geography, regional
economics, agriculture
Reasons “Eyeballing” Not Sufficient
• A common analysis for precision ag data is
“eyeballing” maps to identify patterns
• The human brain is good at finding patterns
– Even when they are there or not
Data Analysis
Similar or different colors?
Excessive background “noise” can mask differences.
A
B
C
D
But what happens when “noise” is correlated?!?
Spatially correlated “noise”
Adapted from Chad Godsey, Oklahoma State University
Steps in On-farm Experiments
Planning Implement Collect Data Analyze Data
Interpret, Make
Decisions, Evaluate
Most effort is applied in the Implementation stage
However, all stages are equally important and warrant effort
e.g. as strong as weakest link of a chain
Data Data Information
Steps in On-farm Experiments
Planning
Implement
Collect DataAnalyze
Data
Interpret, Make
Decisions, Evaluate
Most effort is applied in the Implementation stage
However, all stages are equally important and warrant effort
e.g. as strong as weakest link of a chain
Steps for Field-Scale Research
Design
• Determine relevant question to ask/test
• Design & implement experiment
Data collection
• Record actual experiment (as-applied, include off-target details)
• Collect yield monitor and other site-specific data
Data use
• Manage &Analyze data
• Make production farm management recommendation
• Implement Decision and Evaluate
Progression of How Farmers use Computers
Record keeping & whole-farm management
Precision agriculture
Analyzing data one field at a
time
Step Manual Automated
Design Field-specific On-the-go experiments being
developed
Implement Requires effort Variable-rate controllers & GPS
guidance
Data collection Yield monitor
calibration
Yield monitors &
on-the-go sensors
Analyze Time-consuming &
expensive
Automated data cleaning & spatial
analysis
Decision making Mostly manual Strides being made in community
analysis
Ongoing GPS-NT Projects
Photo Source: Beeline
• Quality of life, less fatigue
– Improved family dynamics and social relations?
• Impact on rural household
– Farmers with neck or shoulder problems remain active
– Adverse affects from working in middle of night?
• GPS &VR controllers to implement on-farm trials
• Whole-farm benefits of GPS adoption
GPS-NT Quotes from Farm Families
• “I wouldn’t want to do without it”
– Farmer
• “I stay up worrying at night because my
husband and son are working”
– Wife of Farmer
• “Even with suffering from neck problems, I
can operate farm equipment for several more
years with GPS guidance”
– Senior adult farmer
The best use of technology?
Photo Source: Unidentified
Future of Precision Ag
• Data side of precision becoming more automated
– Analysis and software conducted in „cloud‟
• Value of single farm data is finite to that farmer
– Greatest value occurs in pooled community analysis
Precision Ag Website Resources
• PrecisionTalk on AgTalk
– http://talk.newagtalk.com/
• PrecisionAg Network
– http://www.precisionagnetwork.com/
• Alabama Precision Ag
– http://www.alabamaprecisionagonline.com
• Purdue Site Specific Management Center
– http://www.purdue.edu/ssmc
• University of Arkansas
– http://www.aragriculture.org/precisionag/
Terry Griffin
Associate Professor - Economics
501.671.2182
http://www.aragriculture.org/precisionag/