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Prabodhan 2015 Participants’ briefing

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Page 1: Prabodhan | Prabodhan Conclave · 2017-08-29 · most recent session of the Indian parliament made it into law and no legislation was passed by the Rajya Sabha ... Jun 2012 2nd bailout,

Prabodhan 2015 Participants’ briefing

Page 2: Prabodhan | Prabodhan Conclave · 2017-08-29 · most recent session of the Indian parliament made it into law and no legislation was passed by the Rajya Sabha ... Jun 2012 2nd bailout,

Contents

Setting the scene 2

Panel one: make in India 8

Panel two: capital markets and growth 12

Panel three: political risk in Europe and in India 16

Panel four: the tech opportunity - reaching digital potential 20

© Global Counsel 2015 1

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India is the brightest spot in a global growth picture that has seen the outlook worsen for many emerging economies. The stark divide between growth rates in OECD and emerging economies has diminished, but has not been eliminated. The convergence partly reflects a structural slowdown in emerging economies and a slow cyclical recovery in Europe. Country-specific factors are also at play, helping explain why the slowdown has been so severe in Russia and Brazil in particular.

Two big uncertainties are hanging over the global economy: Fed tightening and the Chinese slowdown. There is as much global anxiety now about further delay in raising US interest rates as there is about its consequences for global monetary conditions and asset prices. China is not only slowing but rebalancing, which means a structural shift in demand away from investment goods and commodities. Policymakers in Beijing face a balancing act and some difficult policy choices. The stock market volatility and the controversial policy interventions this summer suggest the transition may not be entirely smooth.

Countries with highly-leveraged balance sheets and substantial external financing needs are among the most exposed to the impending change in global monetary conditions. Among the major emerging economies Turkey and Brazil look to be the most exposed, with Turkey in particular reliant on large amounts of external portfolio flows. The IMF has separately raised concerns about the scale of corporate leverage in many emerging economies, including China. This could potentially lead to an increase of non-performing loans and weaken the capital position of some banks.

Commodity exporters and China’s main trade partners are the most exposed to a fall in Chinese demand. This is already impacting on global current account imbalances and exchange rates. It is also impacting on individual companies. China’s scale means no country will be unaffected, including in Europe, where some of the largest corporates appear to be highly dependent on China as a source of revenues.

Politics is a factor constraining the macroeconomic performance of some countries and the ability of policymakers to respond effectively to the challenges they face. Sanctions against Russia are combining with a fall in the oil price and structural weaknesses to deepen the recession, while political scandals in Brazil and Malaysia are diverting attention from economic problems and making it harder for policymakers to implement necessary reforms.

Global macro developments

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The growth picture is becoming more mixedSe

tting th

e sce

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Percentage GDP growth forecast for 2015 and the change since 2014

n.c.

-0.5%

-2.3%

+1.7%

-0.3%

+0.2%

-0.5%

-0.1%

+0.6%

-0.1%

+1.0%

+1.2%

+0.7%

-3.1%

-4.4%

-4 0 4 8

Turkey and Brazil are exposed to external financing conditionsCurrent account as a percent of GDP (vertical axis), credit-to-GDP ratio (horizontal access) and USD credit level (bubble size)

Russia

Malaysia

Indonesia India

Mexico

BrazilTurkey

6

3

0

-3

-6

0 30 60 90

India

China

Nigeria

Spain

World

US

UK

Germany

Euro Area

South Africa

France

Italy

Japan

Brazil

Russia

Inflation is falling, but not everywhereConsumer price inflation, percent

Russia

Brazil

India

China

Japan

Euro Area

UK

US

2014 2015

15

12

9

6

3

0

Many European firms are exposed to ChinaExposure to China measured by estimated % share of revenues

Company Industry Mkt Cap (USD mn)

Exposure %

Volkswagen Autos 97,381 c.50

Swatch Grp Luxury goods 22,764 37

Standard Chartered Banking 35,080 34

HSBC Banking 172,220 33

BMW Autos 63,695 35-40

STMicroelectronics Semiconductors 7,054 30-35

Kone Capital goods 18,887 30

Infineon Semiconductors 12,414 20-25

Hermes Ltd Luxury goods 39,513 20-25

ARM Hld Semiconductors 21,018 c.25

Richemont Luxury goods 42,832 24

Burberry Grp Luxury goods 10,640 23

Sources: IMF, CEIC, Citigroup

© Global Counsel 2015

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India needs more private investment if high growth rates are to be sustained. Over the past year the economy has benefited from the fall in commodity prices, which has substantially reduced the import bill and boosted growth. Investment has increased, but remains an under-powered source of growth. Unless private investor confidence returns and is sustained the level of productive capacity will be constrained. This is dependent on - and central to - many of the government’s policy priorities, including Make in India.

The Euro Area is gradually recovering, with growth expected to be 1.5 percent this year compared with 1.9 percent for the European Union as a whole. Countries in Europe’s periphery are among both the fastest and the slowest growing economies, underlining how the recovery remains patchy. Growth in the core of the Euro Area – including Germany – is relatively subdued. The problem for policymakers is restoring and sustaining business and consumer confidence when policy space is limited and the external environment is deteriorating.

There is an intense debate in India over both the independence of monetary policy and the RBI’s policy stance. The RBI has now cut interest rates four times since the start of the year to 6.75 percent, encouraged by the government which argues inflation is under control. The RBI expects to meet its 6 percent inflation target for January next year, but wants to bring inflation down to 4 percent by January 2018. External conditions - in particular the fall in commodity prices - have created some space for a more expansionary policy.

The ECB is mulling over an expansion of quantitative easing just eight months after the controversial programme began. The policy is regarded as a success, but weak commodity prices have pushed inflation to zero, although core inflation is less of a cause for concern at 1 percent. The open speculation regarding more QE, alongside the likely tightening in the USA, is one factor pushing down the value of the euro, which may be exactly what the ECB President Mario Draghi intends.

The most difficult policy challenge facing Europe – migration – is one which is also intensely political and which may even threaten European integration. There has been a sharp increase in migration this year, driven both by economic incentives and insecurity on Europe’s borders. Policymakers are struggling to find a credible and politically sustainable ‘European solution’ to the problem.

The policy context

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© Global Counsel 2015

Indian investment has picked up, but remains lowPercentage growth in the main domestic components of GDP with fixed investment shown by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

8

6

4

2

0

2013-14 2014-15

6.9%7.3%

6.2% 6.3%

8.2%

6.6%

3.0%

4.6%

GDP Privateconsumption

Government spending

GFCF

The dollar has strengthened over thepast 12 monthsDollar exchange rates indexed to 100 on 1 November 2014

100

90

80

70

60Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015

SterlingRupee

EuroYen

RenminbiReal

Growth rates vary in Europe, with acooler coreForecast GDP growth in 2015 relative to the EU average of 1.9%

Migration is driving population changesin EuropeSources of population change in 2014, thousands

600

400

200

0

-200

Natural change

Gre

ece

Spai

n

Port

ugal

Ital

y

Belg

ium

Net

herl

ands

Aust

ria

Swed

en

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

UK

Net migration Population change

> +2%+1% to +2%0% to +1%

-1% to 0%-2% to -1%< -2%

Sources: IMF, CEIC, Eurostat

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This has been a year of high political uncertainty in Europe, with Greece pulling back from the brink of euro exit. In the summer the Syriza-led government capitulated and agreed terms set in Brussels (and Berlin) for a third bail-out programme that keeps Greece in the euro for now. The re-election of PM Alexis Tsipras has created a degree of political stability with a strong majority in parliament supporting the third programme and the difficult policy measures that this entails. But the Greek bailout remains controversial elsewhere in Europe, particularly in Germany. Moreover, the Greek debt level is not yet sustainable. The Grexit risk has been greatly reduced, but not eliminated.

The risk looming larger in Europe now is of Brexit, with the UK voting on membership of the EU by the end of 2017 and perhaps as early as June next year. British voters appear to be evenly divided, but most have yet to engage in the issues at more than a superficial level. Many will want to see whether the government can renegotiate better terms for the UK’s membership of the EU. Polling shows a large number of voters are fearful of the economic consequences of Brexit, but do not like Britain being in the EU. This will be the battle ground. What business says will have an impact on the decision these voters eventually make.

The Modi government remains popular with high approval ratings across a range of policy areas, but still finds it difficult to pass important legislation. Only one out of eleven bills scheduled for the most recent session of the Indian parliament made it into law and no legislation was passed by the Rajya Sabha - the upper house - where the government lacks a majority. State elections took place in Bihar this month and will take place in five further states and union territories next year. These are important both because the centre must work with the states and because the states appoint many of the members to the upper house.

The difficulty passing the constitutional amendment to introduce a Goods and Services Tax – a landmark reform in India – is indicative of a wider problem of passing legislation. The bill has passed the lower house, but not the upper house, where the opposition is obstructing its progress because of an unrelated political dispute. This is despite the reform being originally proposed by the previous Congress government. GST now looks unlikely to be implemented before April 2017 at the earliest.

The political context

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© Global Counsel 2015

More German MPs oppose Greek bailoutsOpposition to bailouts among Merkel’s CDU/CSU representatives in the Bundestag

3rd bailout, Aug 2015

Start 3rd bailout, Jul 2015

2nd bailout ext, Feb 2015

ESM created, Jun 2012

2nd bailout, Feb 2012

1st bailout, May 2010

No/abstention Support

The BJP and NDA are a minority in theupper houseNumbers of MPs currently in the Rajya Sabha (upper house)

0% 25% 50%

Britons are evenly divided on EuropeAverage of opinion polls in September 2015

Remain Leave Don’t know

40.8% 40.4%

16.8%

CongressJanata ParivarNominated, independent

UPA partnersUnalignedVacant

NDA coalition partners BJP

68

15

78

17

16

48

Lok Sabha Rajya Sabha

125

100

75

50

25

0

Budg

et

Mon

soon

Win

ter

Budg

et

Mon

soon

Win

ter

Budg

et

Win

ter

Budg

et

Mon

soon

2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Survation, ICM, YouGov, PRS legislative research

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Legislation is struggling to pass through the Rajya Sabha‘Productive’ hours as a percent of the total scheduled

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Prime Minister Modi launched the ‘Make in India’ campaign in September last year to boost India’s manufacturing sector. The initiative envisages increasing the share of manufacturing in GDP from 16 percent to 25 percent by 2022 while creating 100 million additional jobs. The government is developing industrial corridors with improved infrastructure with the aim of establishing large industrial clusters for both light and high-value manufacturing.

Both India’s demographic advantages and changing patterns of global competitiveness provide a strong rationale for a renewed effort to boost manufacturing. India’s large population and its relative youthfulness mean that, just like China before, India can potentially tap into a large supply of labour without pushing up wages too quickly. This is attractive to both domestic and foreign investors with long horizons, not least because labour costs are rising elsewhere in Asia, includingin China.

There are, however, many obstacles to overcome if the initiative is to meet its full potential and the starting point is improving the business environment. India ranks among the most difficult countries to do business according to the World Bank. Starting a new company requires 13 procedures alone and taxes are relatively high and burdensome to file. The government has launched initiatives to cut red tape using e-governance platforms. The aim is to speed up licensing procedures, simplify regulations and increase transparency, but a change in bureaucratic culture will need time.

India will only be able to take full advantage of its demographic advantages if it invests more in the labour force. Only 5 percent of India’s workforce has undergone formal skills training. To address low employability and productivity, the government has launched a programme to establish 2,500 multi-skill institutes in partnership with the private sector to ensure vocational training programmes are up-to-date and relevant for the workplace.

India’s domestic market integration and reform agenda needs to be complemented with an international strategy to attract capital and technology. The government has recently removed or raised caps to foreign ownership in a number of sectors. It has also upgraded the country’s administration of intellectual property rights in order to facilitate the transfer of technology. The EU, India’s largest foreign investor, can play a vital role in this process. Germany’s Bosch invested USD100mn in India this year and Sweden’s Ericsson has announced plans to invest USD20mn in manufacturing telecom equipment for export.

Make in India

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© Global Counsel 2015

India has the sixth largest manufacturing sector…The ten largest manufacturing economies

…but R&D spending is well below othersR&D spend as a percent of GDP

India’s young population is growing fastEstimated population pyramids in 2030

Sources: World Bank, US Bureau of Labour Statistics, GC calculations

3000bn

2000bn

1000bn

0bn

Current USD % of GDP

2

1

0

30%

20%

10%

0%

Chin

a

USA

Japa

n

Ger

man

y

Kore

a

Indi

a

Ital

y

Fran

ce

Russ

ia

Braz

il

Korea

Germany

USA

France

China

UK

Italy

Brazil

Russia

India

4.0%

2.9%

2.8%

2.2%

1.8%

1.3%

1.8%

1.2%

1.1%

0.8%

80+

70-74

60-64

50-54

40-44

30-34

20-24

10-14

00-04

China India

Labour costs remain low and have become more competitive compared to ChinaHourly compensation costs in manufacturing

120%

90%

60%

30%

0%2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

USD % of Chinese compensation (rhs)

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Businesses have many concerns…Biggest obstacles for private firms, percent of businesses

…and corporate taxes are relatively high Tax rate as a percent of total profits

Sources: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, CEIC, Indian Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion

Kazakhstan

Vietnam

Philippines

Bangladesh

Thailand

Pakistan

Malaysia

Indonesia

India

China

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

India has a large infrastructure gapTotal infrastructure needs, 2010-2020, USD billions

Europe remains a major source of investmentFDI inflows by origin, 2000-2014

Corruption

20%

15%

13%

12%

12%

5%5%

18%

Electricity

Tax rates

Informal sector practices

Access to finance

Labour regulations

Access to land

Others

China

India

Japan

Russia

USA

Philippines

Indonesia

65%

62%

51%

49%

44%

31%

43%

Other14%

Mauritius36%Total value

INR 11.5tn

EU25%

Singapore13%

Japan6%

USA6%

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© Global Counsel 2015

Make in India

Areas for discussion

▪ What are the priorities to improve the business environment, from tax to regulation, in order to ensure there is sufficient investment, including FDI from Europe?

▪ In which sectors are we seeing the fastest progress towards achieving the goals of Make in India and where are the remaining challenges the greatest? Why?

▪ Where are the greatest opportunities for collaboration between European and Indian businesses to meet the goals of Make in India?

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Healthy capital markets make an important contribution to the ability of businesses to raise funds for investment. In both Europe and India substantial investment in infrastructure and finance for SME innovation in particular have made the question of effective capital markets central to the future outlook for growth. Both India and Europe have to various degrees and for various reasons been historically highly dependent on banks for funding and both are trying to unlock the benefits of their capital markets in different ways.

In Europe the capital markets challenge is broadly two fold. First, to deepen the complementary use of use of non-bank channels alongside the established role of banks in EU capital formation. This varies across the EU, but on average corporate bonds account for just 13 percent of debt financing in the EU, compared to 43 percent in the USA, which makes European economies less resilient if bank lending comes under pressure as we saw during the recent financial crisis. Second, to widen the opportunities for Europeans to invest across the continent. While this is possible in some asset classes and for sophisticated investors in segments like private equity, retail investors have limited scope to do this. The EU’s ‘Capital Market Union’ agenda in 2015 has focused on new ways of distributing investment products across the EU.

India already has an established national capital market at the continental level, but this is very shallow, which raises costs for borrowers and risks for savers and investors. A range of reforms over the last five years have aimed at encouraging corporate debt issuance by deepening secondary debt markets and raising awareness of the role of corporate debt for institutional and retail investment. Indians have begun to invest more in equity, but investor appetite – and opportunity – for corporate fixed income investments waits to be fully tapped.

Capital markets and growth

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thLow rates have encouraged corporate leveragingMonetary policy rates, percent

Banks are a critical for funding, however…

EU firms rely more on banks than US firmsLiabilities of non-financial corporations in 2013, percent

Indian corporate debt markets are much shallower than European ones Corporate debt issued in 2014

10

8

6

4

2

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

RBI ECB BoE

▪ Impaired bank balance sheets are restraining credit expansion in both India and Europe - leaving space for bond market expansion.

▪ Tighter Basel III capital standards may prompt scaling back of lending in both markets. Obligations to hold sovereign debt also constrain balance sheet space in India. In both cases capital markets can provide alternative sources of funding.

▪ Bank loans denominated in foreign currency are exposed to exchange rate volatility. Domestic debt raising is better insulated from exchange rate volatility.

▪ Capital markets provide a financing avenue for sub-investment grade firms who may be too risky for banks – albeit at a higher yield.

Sources: CEIC, WFE, BIS

100

75

50

25

0

Unlisted sharesLong-term loansOther

Listed sharesShort-term loans

Other equityBonds

EU US

London Stock ExchangBSE India

Deutsche BourseShenzhen Exchange

USD 5bn

USD 32bn

USD 426bn

USD 702bn

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Indians are bigger savers than Europeans…Gross domestic savings rates as a percent of GDP in 2013

…but favour physical assets and have limited avenues for investing in corporate debt How Indians save as a percent of GDP, 2011-12

Sources: CEIC, RBI, WFE

China

India

Germany

EU

Euro Area

France

USA

UK

0 5 10 15

Gold etc

Bank Deposits

PPF

Insurance

Cash

Equities

Post Office

SHG/Chit Fund

0 25 50

50%

30%

25%

23%

22%

20%

16%

15%

Phys

ical

Fina

ncia

l

…and the development of stronger markets for debt hedging tools such as interest rate futures Interest rate contracts traded in 2014, millions

Indian corporate debt markets could be boosted by greater liquidity in secondary trading…2014 secondary market trades for corporate bonds [rhs] and equities [lhs], millions

450

300

150

0

6

4

2

0

Corporate bonds Equities

BSE India Euronext Deutsche Bourse

London SE Group

400

300

200

100

0BSE India NSE India ICE Futures

EuropeDeutsche Bourse

14.30%

3.62%

1.47%

1.23%

1.00%

0.22%

0.20%

0.16%

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Capital markets and growth

Areas for discussion

▪ What must India do to harness the full potential for capital markets to fuel sustainable growth and where is foreign participation most needed to achieve this?

▪ Is the European Commission taking the right approach on Capital Markets Union and is it sufficient to unlock the full potential for capital markets to finance growth in Europe?

▪ Are international regulators of capital markets striking the right balance between stability and growth and if not how can this be improved?

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In Europe political fragmentation is making it difficult to find solutions to pressing economic and political problems. The divisions between and within EU member states have become much greater since the financial crisis. The problems in Greece, the refugee crisis, and the question of Britain’s membership of the EU are all in different ways posing fundamental challenges to the future of Europe. They are creating tensions by simultaneously highlighting the need for European solutions just as they are giving rise to political barriers to those solutions. The debate over the management of refugees, in particular, has demonstrated how on-going economic weakness, austerity fatigue and identity politics are making cross-border compromise increasingly difficult. It shows how the political margins are successfully leveraging a weakened centre, even in strongholds of the centre ground like Germany. This raises fundamental questions over whether Europe in future will be open or closed. Eighteen months on from the election of the Modi government the surge in business confidence in India has subsided, as expectations have adjusted to a more complex reality. The new government came into office emphasising the importance of reform and creating a clean break from the previous administration. The government’s headline policy initiatives - such as Make in India, the goal of 100 smart cities, improving sanitation and a mass rollout of solar power - have been praised for their vision. But the results have been mixed as the Indian government, just like governments in Europe, has grappled with the challenge of operating in a fragmented political market. Delhi needs to work in partnership with the states, many of which the BJP does not control, and with a second chamber where it does not have a majority. There are signs of modest progress in restarting investments, with the value of blocked projects down 10% from the peak last year. But many private investors still appear reluctant to put large amounts of new money on the line.

Political risk in Europe and in India

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Post-election confidence in India is subsidingMNI India Business Sentiment Index

Investment projects are slowly being unblockedStalled investment projects, rupees trillions

Non-traditional parties are viewed positively in many EU countriesHow non-traditional parties were viewed in six European countries in spring 2015

Migration became the dominant political issue in Europe this summerMonthly first-time asylum applications, thousands

Government Private

Sources: MNI, Fitch, Eurostat, Pew Research Centre

80

70

60

50

40

Current conditions Future sentiment

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10

8

6

4

2

0

120

90

60

30

0Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

2013 2014 2015

2013 2014 2015

Spain (Podemos)

UK (UKIP)

Italy (5 Star Movement)

Germany (AFD)

Poland (Congress for New Right)

France (National Front)

0% 50% 100%

Good thing Don’t know Bad thing

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India’s infrastructure needs are substantial2014 urbanisation and 2015 sanitation rates

High logistics costs show the urgency ofGST reformCosts as a percent of net sales in selected sectors

Business confidence in Europe remains fragilePMI indicators

Energy and security have become intertwined2012 prices for industrial electricity consumers, €/MWh

Sources: CEIC, World Bank, Prowess, Trading Economics, European Commission

100

75

50

25

0Overall Cities >1mn

Urbanisation Rural Urban

Sanitation

250

200

150

100

50

0

India China

60

56

52

48

2014Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Euro Area manufacturingUK manufacturing

Euro Area servicesUK services

0 10 20 30

Electronics

Textiles

Heavy engineering

Auto components

Hotels and tourism

Telecom

No/abstention Support Power, fuel, water

14%

13%

12%

10%

EU h

ighe

st

Japa

n

EU a

vera

ge

Turk

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Chin

a

Braz

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EU lo

wes

t

Indi

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Indo

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Russ

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Kore

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Political risk in Europe and in India

Areas for discussion

▪ Is Europe able to reform from the inside to deal with the challenges it faces, restore growth and engage effectively with the outside world, including with India?

▪ Has the new Indian Government fulfilled its promise to provide a clean break from previous administrations and reinvigorate economic reforms?

▪ From the perspective of investors and businesses are we seeing the re-emergence of political risk in Europe and in India?

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Digital transformation is revolutionising products, processes and sectors. The digital revolution has fundamentally altered how goods and services are produced and sold, creating entirely new services and distribution platforms. The change has come in many different forms: in some cases digital transformation has been incumbent-led, as was the case with online banking; while in others it has been revolutionised by insurgent, disruptive online companies, as we have seen with shopping. The ‘winner takes all’ nature of online industries has allowed disruptive businesses rapidly to gain scale, value and profitability, and challenge incumbent ICT giants. This has accelerated global competition and added a heightened urgency to implementing national or regional digital policies.

The Indian Government’s Digital India strategy aims to transform its infrastructure and workforce. Despite its world famous ICT industry, a lack of infrastructure, skills and digital access is holding back India’s potential as a digital innovator, as a producer of digital services, and as the home to a vast online consumer market. Digital India has three major policy objectives to address this digital deficit. First, a roll-out of infrastructure to all rural areas to end the chronic lack of digital access across the country. Second, the digitisation of government services such as school certificates and voter ID cards. Finally, the expansion of IT training and digital education through programmes in rural towns and villages. While these initiatives aim to realise social goals, such as widening access to public services, they come with a hard-edged industrial ambition to boost India’s electronics sector and reduce dependence on imports.

The EU’s Digital Single Market represents the European Commission’s response to the USA’s domination of new digital industries. The EU has long identified the digital revolution as crucial to increasing Europe’s competitiveness and wants to create a unified digital consumer market that will be of sufficient scale to nurture future European tech giants that are able to compete with American and Chinese rivals. The focus of the Commission’s most recent policy response – the Digital Single Market - contrasts markedly with Digital India, primarily because it does not draw on conventional industrial strategy levers such as investment in skills and infrastructure, since those competences rest with national governments. Instead, the Digital Single Market strategy concentrates on where the EU can act, which is in harmonising continental-wide rules on e-commerce, audio-visual industries, copyright and the rules governing telecoms competition.

Reaching digital potential

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llDisruptive companies are challenging for sizeMarket value (USD billions)

Their model is different - less assets and workersTotal assets, USD billions, and number of employees in thousands

American firms lead the digital revolutionTop 250 ICT companies by registration

Source: OECD, Forbes Global 2000, 2014 annual reports

250

200

150

100

50

0

… and Europe is failing to bridge the investment gapUSD per capita telecommunications investment

250

200

150

100

50

02009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Assets Employees (thousands)

Facebook

Google

China Mobile

Verizon

Vodafone

Bharti Airtel

0 100 200 300 400

232

368

272

203

88

31 Face

book

Goo

gle

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obile

Veri

zon

Voda

fone

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Other19%

EU20%

Japan20%

USA33%

Taiwan7%

India1%

FranceSpain

GermanyUK

PolandUSA

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lOnline consumer markets are growing in the EU Percent of EU population using services

Sources: European Commission, BI Intelligence, IAMAI, Nelsen, World Bank

Lack of access is holding back Digital IndiaInternet usage in India, percent of population

And this impacts most in rural IndiaPercentage share of the population

60

40

20

0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BankingVoIP Calls

NewsGoods and services

42% 54%

4%

US Domestic Other EU

Social Media Users

Tablet Users

Mobile Internet Users

Internet Users

0 10 20

8%

8%

10%

17%

Totalpopulation

Internetusers

Mobileinternet

users

Urban Rural

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

But consumers shun services from other EU countries Percentage of online services accessed by country of origin

34% 66%

67% 33%

77% 23%

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Reaching digital potential

Areas for discussion

▪ How do businesses assess and what more do they want from policy initiatives like Digital India and the European Digital Single Market?

▪ How should we balance the economic benefits of digital disruption and the potential costs in areas like consumer protection, national security and employment obligations?

▪ How can business and government collaborate to deliver the benefits of the digital revolution and remain globally competitive through investment in digital skills and infrastructure?

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About Global Counsel

Global Counsel5 Welbeck Street, London, W1G 9YQ

T: +44 [0]203 667 6500 E: [email protected]: www.global-counsel.co.uk

Global Counsel is an advisory business that helps businesses understand and navigate the critical area between business, politics and policymaking. We help clients across a wide range of sectors anticipate the ways in which politics, regulation and public policymaking in different markets create both risk and opportunity and support them in development and implementation of strategies to meet these challenges.

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Although Global Counsel makes every attempt to obtain information from sources that we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Unless we have good reason not to do so, Global Counsel has assumed without independent verification, the accuracy of all information available from official public sources. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is or will be given by Global Counsel or its members, employees and/or agents as to or in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) or as to the reasonableness of any assumption contained herein. Forecasts contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) are provisional and subject to change. Nothing contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future. Any case studies and examples herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) are intended for illustrative purposes only. This information discusses general industry or sector trends, general market activity and other broad eco-nomic, market or political conditions. It is not research or investment advice. This document has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation, invitation or an offer by Global Counsel or any of its members, employees or agents to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. No investment, divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based on the information contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel). Global Counsel is not liable for any action undertaken on the basis of the information contained herein. No part of this material may be reproduced without Global Counsel’s consent.

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