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Spring 2010 Version

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Visit the following site for updates:http://facpub.stjohns.edu/~kwonw/Blackwell.html.

To change the slide design/background,[View] [Slide Master]

W. Jean Kwon, Ph.D., CPCUSchool of Risk Management, St. John’s University

101 Murray StreetNew York, NY 10007, USAPhone: +1 (212) 277-5196

E-mail: Kwonw@stjohns.edu

Risk Management and Insurance: Perspectives in a Global Economy

5. Catastrophe Risk Assessment: Natural Hazards

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3

Study Points

Catastrophic events• Definitions• Trends

Types of natural disasters

Gee Gees (Insight 5.3)

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Swiss Re Definition (2008 Reporting Period)

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United Nations/Munich Re Definition

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Frequency of Catastrophes (Figure 5.1) → 2008

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Number of Victims

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Insured Losses

Economic reasons explain much of the concentration trend.

People are drawn to areas that hold potential for greater economic prosperity, such as cities.

Personal (preference) reasons explain this concentration trend.

Figure 5.2 (updated)

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Insured Natural Cats as % of Nonlife Premium1970-2008

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Types of Natural Disasters

1. Earthquakes

2. Storms

3. Floods

4. Volcanism

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World Map of Natural Hazards

Earthquake StormVolcanic Eruption

OtherFlood

Source: World of Natural Hazards (2000)

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Earthquakes

Earthquakes are caused by friction between moving tectonic plates. • Earthquakes originate at fairly well-defined faults.

The Pacific Rim is especially prone to earthquake activity• Ring of Fire (Figure 5.3)

Recent events• 1976 Tangshan, China• 2003 Iranian earthquake• 2005 Kashmir, Pakistan• 2008 Sichuan, China• 2010 Port-au-Prince, Haiti

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Deadliest Earthquakes (Selected)

The Great San Francisco Earthquake (1906) 3,000 people killed $524 million in damage

http://www.howstuffworks.com/12-of-the-most-destructive-earthquakes.htm

Sichuan, China, Earthquake (2008) 87,000 people killed/missing 4.8 million homeless

www.drgeorgepc.com

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Deadliest Earthquakes (Selected)

Kanto, Japan, Earthquake (1923) 143,000 people killed

aboutjapan.japansociety.org

Damghan, Iran Earthquake (856) 200,000 people killed

web.mit.edu/4.614/www/images/thumb/1047.jpg

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Deadliest Earthquakes (Selected)

Tangshan, China, Earthquake (1976) 255,000 people killed

www.waidev2.com

Shansi, China, Earthquake (1556) 830,000 people killed

www.soilandhealth.org

Deadliest Earthquakes (Selected)

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2005 Kashmir, Pakistan 2010 Port-au-Prince, Haiti

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Ring of Fire

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Ring of Fire and Other

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Tsunamis and Earthquakes

Tsunami• Large, rapidly moving ocean

waves produced by the displacement of water caused by earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions or even a sufficiently large meteorite impact.

December 26, 2004, Tsunami near Indonesia

Source

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Canary Islands (Insight 5.1)

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Canary Islands

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Storms

Generically known as “tropical storms”

Various names by region• Typhoon• Severe tropical cyclone• Severe cyclonic storm• Tropical cyclone

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Average No. of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

10.6

13.8

28.1

2.1

8.2

9.7

12.3

6.4Atlantic Basin

Eastern Pacific Basin

Western Pacific Basin

Other Regions

Bay of Bengal Region

Indian Ocean Basin

Australian Region

Fiji Region

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US Hurricane Season 2007

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Measurement of Wind Velocity

Beaufort Scale Saffir-Simpson Scale

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Floods

Partial or complete inundation of a normally dry land area caused by an overflow of tidal, river, or lake water or after a heavy rain• 100-year flood

Flood damage can result from a single event, such as a hurricane or thunderstorm. Floods also occur due to repeated exposure to rainfall.

Source

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Is Your Home Safe?

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Volcanism

Volcano• Vents in the earth’s crust through

which gases, molten rock/lava and solid fragments are discharged

Volcanic hazard assessment

Climate change and volcanism

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Worst Catastrophes – Casualty (History)

Storm and flood in Bangladesh (11/14/1970) → 300,000 Earthquake [M7.5] in China (7/28/1976) → 255,000 Earthquake [M9] and tsunami in Indonesia (12/26/2004) →

220,000 Cyclone Gorky in Bangladesh (4/29/1991) → 138,000 Earthquake [M7.7] and landslide (Pakistan, India,

Afghanistan) → 73,300…

Heat wave in Europe (6/1/2003) → 35,000 Kobe, Japan, earthquake [M7.2] (1/17/1995) → 6,425

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Worst Catastrophes – Cost (History)

Hurricane Katrina in the US (8/25/2005) → $68B Hurricane Ike in the US (9/4/2008) $25B Hurricane Andrew in the US (8/23/1992) → $23B Terror attacks in the US (09/11/2001) → $22B Northridge earthquake [M6.6] in the US (1/17/1994) → $19B Hurricane Ivan in the US (9/2/2004) → $14B

…

Earthquake [M9] and tsunami in Indonesia (12/26/2004) → $2B

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Global Geophysical Events

Gee Gees (Insight 5.3)

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Discussion Questions

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Discussion Question 1

Is your country of birth or residence immune from natural catastrophe? If not, find the records of recent natural events that caused human casualty, property damage or both. Do they meet the definition of catastrophe by an international organization or insurer?

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Discussion Question 2

Discuss why tsunamis are closely related to earthquakes.

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Discussion Question 3

What are the possible factors affecting the rise of natural catastrophes in modern society? Describe the factors also reflecting the environments in the region with which you are familiar (e.g., the Caribbean, northern European or South Pacific).

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Discussion Question 4

Investigate the process of recovery from Hurricane Katrina (U.S.), the 2004 tsunami (Indian Ocean), the 2010 Haiti earthquake or any major natural catastrophe in recent years. Examine the scale, scope and speed of the process to estimate how long it will take to complete it.