Power Line Communications Association Power Line Communications Association 3rd Annual Conference & 3rd Annual Conference &

Strategic Business BriefingStrategic Business Briefing

Keynote Speaker Session:

Michael D. GallagherActing Assistant Secretary for Communications and Information

U.S. Department of CommerceNational Telecommunications and Information Administration

www.ntia.doc.gov

Washington, DCDecember 11, 2003

Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators

Thanks to the President’s policies, America is once again growing robustly:

“Real” personal consumption expenditures rose 6.4 percent in the third quarter this year compared to a 3.8 percent growth rate in 2Q 2003.

“Real” GDP grew at an 8.2 percent annual rate during the third quarter.

The manufacturing sector enjoyed a 9.0 percent increase in productivity in the 3Q.

This year, the S&P 500 is up over 20 percent. The Nasdaq Composite is ahead 42 percent. The President will not be satisfied until every American who

wants a job has a job.

Administration Commitment to Administration Commitment to Technology DevelopmentTechnology Development

"The role of government is not to create wealth; the role of our government is to create an environment in which the entrepreneur can flourish, in which minds can expand, in which technologies can reach new frontiers."

-- President George W. Bush, Technology Agenda, November, 2002.

Growth of Telecommunications Growth of Telecommunications (Selected Markets)(Selected Markets)

Annual Revenues in $ Millions by SectorAnnual Percentage Growth

of Revenues by Sector

Source: Telecommunications Industry Association

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2000 2001 2002

$ M

illion

s

High-Speed Internet

Wireless Services

Spending on Services in Support of Voice & Data Comm. Equip.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002

Perc

ent

High-Speed Internet

Wireless Services

Spending on Services in Support of Voice & Data Comm. Equip.

Broadband Household AccessBroadband Household Access

12.313.7

15.4

17.2

19.120.7

22.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1-2002 Q2-2002 Q3-2002 Q4-2002 Q1-2003 Q2-2003 Q3-2003

Household

s (

mill

ions)

Source: Leichtman Research Group as reported in USAToday on11/14//2003.

Broadband Market ShareBroadband Market Share(Residential Users)(Residential Users)

Cable Modem

59%

DSL34%

Wireless3%

Other4%

Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project (August, 2003)

Broadband Competition Heats UpBroadband Competition Heats UpAnd Prices Come DownAnd Prices Come Down

May 2003: Verizon boosts broadband speed to 1.5 mbps and lowers its price to $29.95 per month as part of a package.

“We expect . . . to win new business among customers using competing technologies and to open a new

market among the millions of consumers who have yet to

purchase broadband services."

December 2003: SBC markets its SBC YAHOO! DSL service through 2000 retail outlets for $26.95 per month as part of a package.

“The [SBC] companies are innovators in expanding the reach of DSL . . . through an aggressive expansion

plan.”

Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP)Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) VOIP is like gravity – it is an irresistible force

• 10% of international minutes were IP in 2002; projected to be more than 50% by 2007 (Probe Research 2002)

• About 1 billion business phone lines worldwide were IP by the 2Q 2003, or about 12% of the total; numbers are projected to be approx. 1.8 bill. (17%) by year end 2003. (Wall St. J., Oct. 9, 2003)

VOIP Could Increase Competition in Equipment and Services• Business spending on IP phone equipment worldwide more than doubled

between 2002 and 2003 to approx. $1 bill. (nearly 20% of all business phone equipment purchases). (Id.)

Need sound regulatory approach to VOIP – should not be a “grey market” service

Functions of The Functions of The National Telecommunications and National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA)Information Administration (NTIA)

President’s Principal Adviser on Telecommunications and Information Policies/Agency of Commerce Department

Authorizes Spectrum Use by Federal Agencies

Operates Telecommunications Research Laboratory

Participates with State Dep’t and FCC in International Telecommunications Activities

Administers Telecommunications Grant Programs

Spectrum PolicySpectrum Policy

Spectrum Policy: The who, what, where, when, and why of access

Great potential for government action towards a positive effecton economic and national security

NTIA and FCC share joint jurisdiction over spectrum• NTIA authorizes use by Federal Government Agencies• FCC authorizes all other spectrum use, by license or by license exempt

operation• NTIA and FCC work together to determine national and international

allocations

Administration Successes Administration Successes in Opening Spectrum in Opening Spectrum

to New Usesto New Uses

Third Generation (3G) Service

Ultrawideband

5 GHz Spectrum

70/80/90 GHz

NTIA & the BPL ChallengeNTIA & the BPL Challenge

BPL could be a source of innovation and competition in the broadband marketplace.

The central technical issue from NTIA’s viewpoint is the risk that BPL systems might interfere with federal government radio communications or other private users that are important from a national perspective:

• FCC Part 15 rules establish a means to accommodate unlicensed devices in balance with the risk of harmful interference to authorized radio services.

• The Part 15 rules require operators to eliminate harmful interference.

• Therefore, BPL operators have an incentive to design and operate their systems to avoid such interference.

NTIA ConcernsNTIA Concerns

Range of interest for BPL is 1700 kHz to 80 MHz frequency range.

At these frequencies, signals bounce off the ionosphere and can travel great distances, thus increasing the potential for interference.

There are over 80,000 assignments for Federal Government operations in this range.

National emergency response, law enforcement, search and rescue, and aeronautical and maritime operations are supported, among others.

At some frequencies, certain operations, e.g., distress and safety, require and are entitled to special protection.

In principle, efficient interference mitigation procedures can enable higher risk tolerance.

NTIA StudiesNTIA Studies NTIA is studying interference risks and potential means

for making risks more tolerable:

• Risk is controlled by Part 15 “field strength” limits and compliance measurement procedures.

• Risk tolerance is established by the technical and operational nature of the radio communications operations.

• Objective is to accommodate BPL with acceptable risk.

Over 10 million BPL signal samples have been measured to define the signals radiated by BPL systems.

Numerous variants of BPL deployments have been modeled to further characterize potential BPL emissions.

NTIA Studies NTIA Studies (con’t)(con’t) NTIA’s Phase 1 report will address potential local interference

involving overhead power lines:

• Will recommend radiated emission limits, compliance measurement procedures, and other authorization conditions.

• Anticipate completion and filing with FCC filing this Winter.

Phase 2 will further address these and other BPL aspects and should be completed in mid-2004:

• Potential long-distance interference from large scale, mature deployments of BPL systems;

• Underground and indoor wiring.

ConclusionConclusion

The American economy is growing. Broadband is an important and growing part of the

economy. The Administration has developed successful policies to

advance broadband, including successful radio spectrum policies.

BPL could be a source of innovation and competition. The Administration is addressing the balance between

accommodation of BPL and protection of vital federal and private services.