Power & 21st century world order

KEY ISSUES/QUESTIONS: WHAT IS POWER? HOW, AND TO WHAT EXTENT, HAS THE NATURE OF POWER CHANGED? WHAT WERE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR WORLD ORDER OF THE END OF THE COLD WAR? IS THE USA A HEGEMONIC POWER, OR A POWER IN DECLINE? TO WHAT EXTENT IS THE WORLD NOW MULTIPOLAR, AND ARE THESE TRENDS SET

TO CONTINUE? HOW IS GROWING MULTIPOLARITY LIKELY TO AFFECT GLOBAL POLITICS?

What is power?

Power punch!!!

What is power?

What is power?

What is power?

What is power? It is the ability to influence the outcome of events, to do something the capacity or ability to direct or influence the behavior of others or the course

of events In global politics, this includes the ability of a country to conduct its own affairs

without the interference of other countries = independence A sort of relationship; power is relative Doesn’t exist in isolation; power ‘over’ others potential/actual power; relational/structural power and hard/soft power Power = love: ‘easier to experience than to define or measure, but no less

real…’ Joseph Nye (2004)

Elements of national power

Military strength: Realist perspective; size, effectiveness, advanced weapons, etc.

Economic development: Liberal perspective; wealth as base for other advantages

Population: quality & quantity Geography: location, topography, climate, natural resources, energy resources,

etc Quick activity: In pairs, compare the ‘power’ of each other’s country

on the basis of above elements. Which is more powerful? Structural Power: Susan Strange (New Realist) – Knowledge structure, financial

structure, security structure, production structure. Different actors/states may dominate different structures

Changing nature of power Two shifts: Military power to economic power; decline of hard power (command

power, military + economic) and rise of soft power (attraction, co-optive power) Driven by growing interdependence and cross-border mobility of peoples and ideas;

spread of democracy; etc Who wields power now? State or non-state actors? Smart power: Hard and soft power reinforce each other

(https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2009-07-01/get-smart) Quick activity: Working in pairs, list out examples from the real world

where use of hard power is evident. Do you think that is the best option and is likely to achieve its objectives?

Get Smart: Combining Hard and soft power

(Joseph S. Nye, Jr., 2009) US‘s Cold War strategy: a smart combination of hard and soft power. The U.S. military deterred Soviet aggression, while American ideas undercut communism behind the Iron Curtain. 

‘America cannot solve the most pressing problems on our own, and the world cannot solve them without America. . . . We must use what has been called 'smart power,‘ (Hillary Clinton, 2009)

3 ways of getting things done: coercion, payment, (hard) and attraction (soft) Smart strategies: combine the tools of both hard and soft power Leadership is about getting people to do something "not only because you tell them to do so and

enforce your orders but because they instinctively want to do it for you.“ (Dwight Eisenhower) A country's soft power include: its culture (when it is pleasing to others), its values (when they

are attractive and consistently practiced), and its policies (when they are seen as inclusive and legitimate)

Recent decline in US’s popularity: inconsistent foreign policies Question: Is soft power the solution of all problems?

World Order Defined as ‘the distribution of power between and amongst states and other key

actors giving rise to a relativelyy stable pattern of relationships and behaviours.’ Cold War (1945-1991): Bipolarity – US and USSR; NATO vs Warsaw Pact; Debate: Was

it good or bad? The New World Order: Post-1991: first mooted by Gorbachev in a speech to the UN

General Assembly in December 1988. Bush Sr.: included US leadership to ensure the international rule of law, a

partnership between the USA and the Soviet Union, and promotion of collective security. This idealism soon fizzled out. New World Disorder?

1990s: Rise of conflicts and centrifugal tendencies, esp in East Europe; world became more unstable; search for alternative models of World Order

3-D chess game model of World Order

(Joseph S Nye, Jr.) Top level: military power among states is unipolar Middle level: interstate economic relations, the world is

multipolar  Bottom level: transnational relations (involving such

issues as climate change, illegal drugs, pandemics, and terrorism), power is chaotically distributed and diffuses to non-state actors

US HEGEMONY AND GLOBAL ORDER Post 1991: ‘American empire’, a ‘global hegemon’ or a ‘hyperpower’ Hegemony: (from the Greek hegemonia, meaning ‘leader’) the leadership or domination

of one element of a system over others. In Global Politics, it refers to a leading state within a collection of states. Hegemonic status is based on the possession of structural power, particularly the control of economic and military resources.

Driving factors: Collapse of the USSR, economic globalization, Gulf War 1991, increase in humanitarian interventions; 9/11 (decisive point in creating the New World Order)

Unipolarity: a single great power, implying an absence of constraints or potential rivals. Chomsky’s ‘radical’ realism: the more powerful the state, the greater will be its

tendency towards tyranny and oppression (USA) Hegemonic stability theory: highlights the positive benefits that a global hegemon

can bring to other states and the international system as a whole Quick activity: Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of unipolarity for

global politics.

Robert Cooper’s New World Order Pre-modern world: Weak/failed/rogue states; chaos and instability; Egs are Somalia, Afghanistan, Liberia, etc. Post-colonial times, they have not benefitted in anyway.

Modern states: states continue to be effective and are fiercely protective of their own sovereignty. Such a world operates on the basis of a balance of power.

Post-modern states: Europe and the EU; have evolved ‘beyond’ power politics and have abandoned war as a means of maintaining security; favor multilateral agreements, international law and global governance.

Criticism: Not a very stable system, especially in the context of Nuclear proliferation

A Multipolar global order?? Two main issues: To what extent, and in what ways, is world order acquiring a

multipolar character? And, what are the likely implications of multipolarity? Multipolar trends: Rise of emerging powers, both regionally and globally (BRICs);

globalization; regional/global governance; 21st century will be The Chinese Century. Annual growth rates of between 8 -10 % for

almost 30 years (about twice the levels achieved by the USA and other western states); world’s largest exporter in 2009, and in 2010 it overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. By 2010, the Chinese economy was 90 times larger than it had been in 1978; largest population, cheap labour, second only to the USA in terms of arms expenditure

http://www.ndtv.com/news/view/news/1211101/site=classic/?device=androidv2&showads=no&site=classic

Activity: In pairs, research the basic economic/demographic/military indicators of China, India, Brazil, Russia

Multipolar order or disorder?? Neorealists: Multipolarity is bad and dangerous for world security; more actors

enhance security dilemma and hence the possibility of conflict; Clash of Civilizations (Huntington); rise of revisionist states like Russia, Iran and China seeking to undo the wrongs of the 1990s

Liberalists: glorify multipolarity and the growing importance of international organization; belief in world governance; believe that hegemonic powers are always malign and self-seeking