Poverty and Regime ChangeNora Genster and Andrew Tabas

Question

• Is regime change more frequent in rich or poor countries?

Answer

• Regime change is more frequent in poor countries

Regimes in Literature

• Gassebner et al.

• Boix

Variables

• GDP growth

• GDP per capita (purchasing power parity)

• Inequality

• Regime Change

Independent

Dependent

Defining Rich and Poor

•Median values• Income inequality - 42.96

• GDP growth - 3.48%

• GDP per capita lagged (purchasing power parity) - 8.437

Frequency of Regime Transition

Variables Median Value Number of Regime Transitions per POOR Country-year

Number of Regime Transitions per Rich Country-year

Lgdppcpppc(Logged GDP per capita)

8.437 .030 .008

Gdpgr1(GDP growth)

3.84 .025 .007

Inequal1(Inequality)

42.96 .013 .010

Frequency of Regime Transition

Choosing Case Studies

Poor Country-year Rich Country-year

Yes Regime Change (1) Quadrant One Quadrant 2

No Regime Change (2) Quadrant 3 Quadrant 4

Poor Country-year Rich Country-year

Yes Regime Change (1) Guatemala, 1982 South Korea, 1987

No Regime Change (2) Yemen Sweden

Guatemala, 1982

• Regime Change – dictatorship to democracy

• GDP contraction - 3.53%

• Low GDP per capita – 7.578

• High inequality – 46.53

South Korea, 1987

• Regime change dictatorship to democracy

• High GDP growth – 10.62%

• High GPD per capita – 8.83

• Low inequality – 37.61

Yemen and Sweden

Sweden

Yemen

• No regime change• Consistently high GDP growth and GDP per capita• Low inequality

• No regime change• Consistently low GDP growth and GDP per capita• High inequality

In Sum…

• Is regime change more frequency in rich or poor country-years?

• Regime Change is more frequent in poor-country years

• Poverty encourages political instability

Expansion

• Bank’s Conflict Index

• Bell Curve

Thank you.