potashcorp - west coast tour - august 2012

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PotashCorp.com West Coast Investor Meetings August 2012 Bill Doyle President and CEO

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Page 1: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

PotashCorp.com

West Coast Investor Meetings

August 2012Bill Doyle

President and CEO

Page 2: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; the European sovereign debt crisis and the recent downgrade of US sovereign debt and political concerns over budgetary matters; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Slide#1

Page 3: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

SQM

ICL

APC

Nitrogen

Phosphate

(Mining/Processing)

Potash

Investments

Sinofert

Source: Fertecon; CRU; Blue, Johnson & Associates; PotashCorp

A Global Crop Nutrient Company

PotashCorp Profile

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen

% of Global Capacity 20% 5% 2%

Global Position #1 #3 #3

% of Gross Margin (2011) 64% 15% 21%

Slide#2

Page 4: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%PotashCorp CFR

Source: PotashCorp

* 2012F as at July 26, 2012

PercentageGross Margin - US$ Billions

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F*

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Potash GM Phosphate GM Nitrogen GM

Unique Potash Position Drives Earnings Growth and Strong Cash Flow Returns

PotashCorp Profile

Slide#3

Page 5: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Agriculture Market Overview

Page 6: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Less Than Ideal Conditions Have Impacted 2012 Crop Production Potential

Global Crop Condition

Adverse conditions have reduced FSU crop

expectations

Brazil is gearing up for increased corn/soybean

planting for 2012/13

Imbalance in fertility is expected to impact crop yields; current monsoon

rains are about 14% below normal levels

Key Factors to Watch in 2012:How will corn and soybean demand be rationed

Uncertainty of FSU grain export supplyCrop production response in South America

China corn and soybean import demand

High rainfall and recent heat providing good crop potential in

Western Canada

Rapid deterioration of US corn and soybean conditions. Projected corn

yield is the lowest since 1995.

Source: USDA, World Commodity Analysis Corporation, Doane, Government of India, PotashCorp Slide#5

Page 7: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

2012F0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Chart Title

2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.

Percent

Tightest Stocks Level Since 1973

World Corn Stocks-to-Use

Source: USDASource: USDA Slide#6

Page 8: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

$4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

10- year high

10- year low

$4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1810- year high

10- year low

$4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

10- year high

10- year low

Source: USDA, DTN, PotashCorp

Percent

Potash

Percent

Phosphate

Percent

Nitrogen

Potash and Phosphate Costs Account for Small Percentage of Projected Corn Revenue

Fertilizer Cost Percentage of US Corn Revenue

Based on DTN reported retail fertilizer prices as of August 10, 2012.

US$/bushel US$/bushel US$/bushel

Slide#7

Page 9: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Fertilizer Market UpdateFertilizer Market Update

Page 10: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

India China Latin America

Other Asia

North America

World0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Latin America Other Asia China India North America

Other

Percent Annualized Growth (2001-2011)

Significant Consumption Growth in Large Developing Markets

World Potash Fertilizer Consumption Growth

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes K2O

Slide#9

Page 11: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: USDA, IPNI, PotashCorp

Application estimate does not include nutrients received from manure which can reduce the deficit on a regional basis.

Corn 110 & Soybean 34 Corn 120 & Soybean 36 Corn 130 & Soybean 382.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5Crop Removal Scenarios 2012 Estimated Potash Application

Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent

Estimated Removal Exceeds Application Even in Low Yield Scenarios

2012 US Corn/Soybean Potash Application and Removal

Yield Scenarios – bushels per acre

Slide#10

Page 12: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: IPNI, USDA, PotashCorp

2012F assumes 135 bu/acre corn & 38 bu/acre soybean yields.

Application estimate does not include nutrients received from manure which can reduce the deficit on a regional basis.

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

E

2011

E

2012

F0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Potash Application Crop Removal

Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent*

Application Rates Have Not Kept Pace With Nutrient Removal

US Corn/Soybean Potash Application and Removal

Slide#11

Page 13: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: USDA, AAPFCO

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

7%

-9%

3%

20%

0%7% 4%

Change in US Fertilizer use (in following fertilizer year)

Year-over-Year Corn Yield Decline

Percentage Change

Fertilizer Use Increased in Majority of Fertilizer Years Following a Major Yield Decline

US Fertilizer Use Following Major Yield Declines

1970 1974 1980 1983 1988 1993 1995

Slide#12

Page 14: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Domestic Shipments Offshore Imports

Million Tonnes KCl

Anticipate Strong Demand Given Low Dealer Inventories Entering 2012/13 Fertilizer Year

North American Potash Shipments vs Consumption

Destocking of inventories

built in 2010/11

Source: Fertecon, AAPFCO, TFI, PotashCorp Slide#13

Page 15: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

2011F

2012F0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

2011F

2012F0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.

Million Tonnes

Corn

Million Tonnes

Soybeans

Expect a Large Production Response from South America in 2012/13

South America Soybean and Corn Production

Source: USDASource: USDA Slide#14

Page 16: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 YTD fertilizer deliveries are up 4 percent yr/yr as of July

Million Product Tonnes

Expect Record Fertilizer Use in 2012

Brazil Fertilizer Deliveries to Final Consumer

Source: Potafertz, ANDA, PotashCorp Slide#15

Page 17: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Production Consumption

Million TonnesHarvest Area – Million Hectares

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

2012F100

104

108

112

116

120

Despite Increased Acreage, Production Has Not Kept Pace With Demand

China Grain and Oilseed Profile

Source: USDASource: USDA Slide#16

Page 18: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Soybeans KCl

Source: Bloomberg, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

US$ Billions

Higher Prices and Demand Driving Up Food Import Costs; KCl Cost Fraction of Soybeans

China Soybean and KCl Import Cost

Slide#17

Page 19: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F0

10

20

30

40

50

60Million tonnes N Million tonnes P2O5 Million tonnes K2O

Source: Fertecon

Million Tonnes Nutrient

Consumption Rising But Nutrient Application Balance is an Issue

China Fertilizer Consumption

Million tonnes P2O5 Million tonnes K2O

Source: Fertecon Slide#18

Page 20: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

20

40

60

80

100

120

Source: Fertecon, India Meteorological Department

Percentage of Normal Monsoon Rain (as of mid-August)N:K Application Ratio

2010 2011 2012F0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Unbalanced Fertilizer Application and Weak Monsoon Increases Crop Production Risk

India Market Situation

Rains less than 90 percent considered to be a drought.

Slide#19

Page 21: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012F0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000MOP Imports MOP Retail Prices

Rice Wheat0

2

4

6

8

10

12

142010 Potash Prices 2012 Potash Prices

Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAI, PotashCorp

Return on Potash FertilizerRs/tonne of MOP

Changes to India’s Subsidy System Have Impacted Potash Demand

India Potash Situation

Thousand Tonnes of MOP

Slide#20

Page 22: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Nov 19, 2010 Mar 9, 2011 May 5, 2011 April 1, 20120

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

69%

20%

11%

Source: Fertecon, India Department of Fertilizers

Note: Rupee to US$ conversion is at the rate of 46 Rupees per US$ for 2010-11 and 50 for 2012

Percentage of Indian Fertilizer Subsidy

US$ Subsidy per product tonne

Government Actions Counter to Agronomic Needs

Indian Fertilizer Subsidies

DAP

Potash

Urea

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Potash

Slide#21

Page 23: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Potash Market Overview

Page 24: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

* PotashCorp investments: ICL (14%), APC (28%), SQM (32%) and Sinofert (22%)

Note: PotashCorp based on operational capability (estimated annual achievable production) while competitor capacity is stated nameplate, which may exceed operational capability.

Vale (Brazil)

Intrepid (US)

SQM (Chile)*

APC (Jordan)*

Agrium (Canada)

China*

K+S (Germany)

ICL (Israel,Spain,UK)*

Belaruskali (Belarus)

Mosaic (Canada,US)

Uralkali (Russia)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

PotashCorp (Operational Capability)

PotashCorp Investments (Capacity)

Other Producers (Capacity)

Announced Expansions Through 2016

Million Tonnes KCl

PotashCorp Has Greatest Capability and Significant Offshore Equity Investments

World Potash Producer Profile

PotashCorp

Slide#23

Page 25: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: AMEC, Company Reports, PotashCorp

* New Brunswick cost per tonne based on new 2MMT mine (net addition totals 1.2MMT).

** Based on 2MMT conventional greenfield mine constructed in Saskatchewan.

PotashCorp project costs exclude infrastructure outside the plant gate.

Assuming US$/CDN$ at par

POT Projects Completed

POT Projects in Progress*

MOS Projects in Progress

AGU Project SK Green-field**

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500Greenfield (Excluding infrastructure and reserve costs)

Greenfield (Including infrastructure and reserve costs)

Capital Cost per Tonne

New Projects Are Increasingly Expensive and Complex to Complete

Saskatchewan Brownfield & Greenfield Potash Costs

Slide#24

Page 26: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

2011E

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

ShipmentsShipment RangeOperational CapabilityOperating Rate

* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level).

Shipment range based on 3-3.5% annualized demand growth rate (2002-2016).

Operating rate forecast based on mid-point of shipment range divided by operational capability (including announced projects; assuming typical ramp-up period for new capacity).

Operating Rate* - PercentMillion Tonnes KCl

Balanced to Tight Market Expected in the Coming Years

World Potash Supply/Demand

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp Slide#25

Page 27: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Phosphate and Nitrogen OverviewPhosphate and Nitrogen Overview

Page 28: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

05 06 07 08 09 10 11F0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Rock Sulfur Ammonia OtherTampa DAP

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

US$/Tonne

Non-Integrated Producer

05 06 07 08 09 10 11F0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Rock Sulfur Ammonia Other

Tampa DAP

Significant Advantage for Integrated Producers

DAP Production Costs

US$/Tonne

Integrated Producer

Slide#27

Page 29: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Aurora NC White Springs FL0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

30

17

34%

35%

14%

17%

Source: PotashCorp

* Proven and probable reserves permitted and to be permitted as of December 31, 2011.

Including deposits classified as resources, the mine life at Aurora would be about 49 years.

Mine life is based on average annual production rate for the past three years.

Percentage of Sales by Product Category

Rock Reserve Years*

Long-lived, High-quality Phosphate Rock Supports Diverse Product Mix

PotashCorp Phosphate Profile

Industrial

Liquid

Fertilizer

Solid

Fertilizer

Feed

Slide#28

Page 30: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: Fertecon; Blue, Johnson & Associates; PotashCorp

Ukraine Port Plant

Russia - Yuzhnyy

Trinidad

Middle East

US Gulf Producer

US Midwest Producer

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Cash Costs

Freight to US Gulf

Freight and Handling to US Midwest

US$/Tonne – 2012F

Interior Plants Have Significant Delivered Cost Advantage

US Midwest Delivered Ammonia Cost

Slide#29

Page 31: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: PotashCorp

* Expect to resume ammonia production at Geismar in January 2013

2011 2013F0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5Trinidad Augusta, GA Lima, OH Geismar, LA*

Million Tonnes

Increasing US Ammonia Production Capability Through Quick Payback Projects

PotashCorp Ammonia Capacity

16% Capacity Increase

Slide#30

Page 32: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Deploying Cash: Historical Perspective and Future Priorities

Page 33: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

* Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000Capital Expenditures Estimates* Cash Provided by Operating Activities

US$ Millions

Cash Flow Expected to Remain Strong

PotashCorp Capital Spending and Cash Flow

Source: PotashCorp Slide#32

Page 34: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value

Historical Cash Flow Deployment

Opportunity Capital

$6.6 Billion since 2003

5-Year Average CFR = 24.3%

Equity Investments

$2.0 Billion since 1998

Current Market Value = $8.2 billion

Share Repurchases

$6.3 Billion since 1999

Average purchase price = $26/share

Dividend Payments

$0.9 Billion since 2002

Doubled dividend twice since January 2011

Slide#33

Page 35: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value

Future Cash Flow Priorities

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Potential: Dividend Increases / Share Buybacks / M&A

Potash Brownfield Projects (Existing)

Phosphate & Nitrogen Brownfield Projects

Slide#34

Page 36: PotashCorp - West Coast Tour - August 2012

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