potashcorp - 2016 q3 earnings
TRANSCRIPT
PotashCorp.com
Q3 2016 Conference CallOctober 27, 2016
Forward-looking Statements
Slide #2
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) or “forward-looking information”(within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation) that relate to future events or our future performance. These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “forecast,” “may,”“anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions as set forth in this document, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, including the proposed merger of equals with Agrium, and effective tax rates. While we consider these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, the following: our proposed merger of equals transaction with Agrium, including the failure to satisfy all required conditions, including required regulatory, Canadian court and securityholder approvals, or to satisfy or obtain waivers with respect to all other closing conditions in a timely manner and on favorable terms or at all; the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the arrangement agreement; certain costs that we may incur in connection with the proposed merger of equals; certain restrictions in the arrangement agreement on our ability to take action outside the ordinary course of business without the consent of Agrium; the effect of the announcement of the proposed merger of equals on our ability to retain customers, suppliers and personnel and on our operating future business and operations generally; risks related to diversion of management time from ongoing business operations due to the proposed merger of equals; failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the proposed merger of equals and to successfully integrate Agrium and PotashCorp; the risk that our credit ratings may be downgraded or there may be adverse conditions in the credit markets; variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to any operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve, including mine and inventory shutdowns; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; changes in capital markets; the results of sales contract negotiations; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; risks related to reputational loss; the occurrence of a major safety incident; inadequate insurance coverage for a significant liability; inability to obtain relevant permits for our operations; catastrophic events or malicious acts, including terrorism; certain complications that may arise in our mining process, including water inflows; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; our ownership of non-controlling equity interests in other companies; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities and acquisitions; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; security risks related to our information technology systems; imprecision in reserve estimates; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities which could affect our effective tax rates; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; our ability to attract, develop, engage and retain skilled employees; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; timing and impact of capital expenditures; the impact of further innovation; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; and violations of our governance and compliance policies. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail under the headings “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results and Operations and Financial Condition” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015, the joint information circular of the company and Agrium, filed as Exhibit 99.1 to the company’s Current Report on Form 8-K dated October 6, 2016 and with Canadian provincial securities commissions, in connection with the proposed merger of equals with Agrium and in other documents and reports subsequently filed by us with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date hereof and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Performance
Key Highlights
• Third-quarter earnings of $0.10 per share1
• Record third-quarter potash sales volumes
• Potash spot prices increased by ~15 percent since end of second quarter
• Canpotex sold out for fourth-quarter 2016
• Expect global potash shipments of 61-64 million tonnes in 2017
• Market value of investments2 approximately $4.0 billion, or $5 per PotashCorp share3
• Announced agreement to combine in merger of equals with Agrium
1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 Arab Potash Company, Israel Chemicals Ltd., Sinofert Holdings Limited, and Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. 3 As of market close on October 26, 2016
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #4
Lower Prices Primary Contributor to Weaker Gross Margin
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison (Q3-15 vs. Q3-16)
Q3 2015
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q32016
0
150
300
450
600
$505
$190
-$188
-$92
-$35
Gross Margin - US$ MillionsPotash• Lower realizations reflect the significant price decline
experienced in the first half of 2016
• Strong engagement in nearly all markets led to record third-quarter sales volumes
• Lower per-tonne costs due to higher proportion of production from Saskatchewan mines; lower royalties
Nitrogen• Lower realizations due to weaker benchmark pricing
• Higher sales volumes reflect increased Lima production
• Lower costs due primarily to reduced Trinidad gas prices
Phosphate• Lower realizations due primarily to weaker fertilizer
benchmark pricing
• Lower per-tonne costs due to reduced input costs and absence of notable charges
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #5
Nitrogen Key Contributor to Weaker Gross Margin; Potash Markets Turning in Q3
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison (Q2-16 vs. Q3-16)
Q2 2016
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q32016
0
100
200
300
$243
$190
-$17-$61
+$25
Gross Margin - US$ MillionsPotash• Spot prices increased ~15 percent during the quarter, but
not expected to benefit realizations until late Q4
• Stronger third-quarter sales volumes due to improved engagement in nearly all markets
• Higher costs due to third-quarter maintenance activities
Nitrogen• Lower realizations due to weaker benchmark pricing
• Relatively flat sales volumes and costs
Phosphate• Lower realizations due primarily to weaker fertilizer
benchmark pricing
• Higher sales volumes due to improved North American demand
• Lower per-tonne costs due to reduced input costs and absence of notable charges
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #6
Source: PotashCorp
2017Q1 Q2
2016
Picadilly Mine in Care & Maintenance
2.0 mmt of nameplate capacity
Announced Inventory Shutdowns
at Allan & Lanigan
Q3
Reduced quarterly dividend
to $0.10/share
Reduced quarterly dividendto $0.25/share
Q4 Q1
2017
Rocanville Ramp-upExpect Canpotex allocation
increase for 2H 2017
Hammond Warehouse/ Distribution Centre Complete
enhancing US distribution
Commitment to a Proactive Approach; Merger Expected to Close Mid-2017
Recent and Upcoming Event Timeline
Announced Merger of Equals with Agrium
Expect up to $500M in annual synergies
Shareholder Vote on Merger
with Agrium
Q2 Q3
Merger Regulatory Review Process
Expect to be complete in mid-2017
Slide #7
Integration Planning Process
Outlook
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-1680%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption).
** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption).
Fertilizer Affordability IndexFertilizer Represents Good Value for Farmers
Source: Bloomberg, Fertilizer Week
Fertilizer Represents Good Value for Farmers
Crop Price Index* as a % of Fertilizer Price Index**
110% 142%Average Ratio (Crop Index as % of Fertilizer
Index)
Slide #9
Potash Shipments by Region
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Expect Demand of 61-64 Million Tonnes in 2017
14 15 16F 17F 14 15 16F 17F 14 15 16F 17F 14 15 16F 17F 14 15 16F 17F0
5
10
15
20
India
Note: Shaded bars represent shipment forecast range as of October 27, 2016.
4.2 – 4.7mmt• Lower farm retail prices and agronomic need expected to support consumption growth
Other Asia
8.8 – 9.3mmt• Demand supported by good crop economics, lower inventories and improved moisture conditions
North America
9.3 – 9.8mmt• Supportive nutrient prices and significant removal of nutrients following record crop expected to support demand
Latin America
11.5 – 12.0mmt• Agronomic need and favorable crop economics expected to support demand growth
China
14.5 – 15.5mmt• Lower inventories and strong consumption expected to support more timely contract settlements
2017
H
ighl
ight
s
Million Tonnes KCl
Previous Record:6.3mmt (2010)
Previous Record:9.5mmt (2014)
Previous Record:11.1mmt (1997)
Previous Record:11.7mmt (2014)
Previous Record:15.8mmt (2015)
Slide #10
2016 Guidance1
1 As at October 27, 20162 Does not include capitalized interest3 As a percentage of potash gross margin, excluding New Brunswick severance costs4 Includes income from dividends and share of equity earnings
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #11
Potash sales volumes 8.5-8.7 million tonnes
Potash gross margin $400-$500 million
Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin $400-$450 million
Capital expenditures 2 ~$800 million
Effective tax rate 14-16 percent
Provincial mining and other taxes 3 23-25 percent
Selling and administrative expenses $215-$225 million
Finance costs $210-$220 million
Income from equity investments 4 $125-$135 million
Annual foreign exchange rate assumption CDN$1.32 per US$
Annual EPS sensitivity to foreign exchange US$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 = +$0.01 EPS
Annual earnings per share $0.40-$0.45
PotashCorp.com
PotashCorp.com
Contact Us
[email protected](306) 933-8500
Denita StannSenior VP, Investor & Public Relations
Jeff HolzmanSenior Director, Investor Relations & Sustainability
Ryan Shacklock Director, Investor Relations
Tim McMillanManager, Investor Relations
[email protected](306) 933-8849
Randy BurtonDirector, Public Relations & Communications
PotashCorp.com